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Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from GRACE with Groundwater-level Measurements from the High Plains Aquifer (USA)

This study presents the first direct comparison of variations in seasonal GWS derived from GRACE TWS and simulated SM with GW-level measurements in a semiarid region. Results showed that variations in GWS and SM are the main sources controlling TWS changes over the High Plains, with negligible storage changes from surface water, snow, and biomass. Seasonal variations in GRACE TWS compare favorably with combined GWS from GW-level measurements (total 2,700 wells, average 1,050 GW-level measurements per season) and simulated SM from the Noah land surface model (R = 0.82, RMSD = 33 mm). Estimated uncertainty in seasonal GRACE-derived TWS is 8 mm, and estimated uncertainty in TWS changes is 11 mm. Estimated uncertainty in SM changes is 11 mm and combined uncertainty for TWS-SM changes is 15 mm. Seasonal TWS changes are detectable in 7 out of 9 monitored periods and maximum changes within a year (e.g. between winter and summer) are detectable in all 5 monitored periods. Grace-derived GWS calculated from TWS-SM generally agrees with estimates based on GW-level measurements (R = 0.58, RMSD = 33 mm). Seasonal TWS-SM changes are detectable in 5 out of the 9 monitored periods and maximum changes are detectable in all 5 monitored periods. Good correspondence between GRACE data and GW-level measurements from the intensively monitored High Plains aquifer validates the potential for using GRACE TWS and simulated SM to monitor GWS changes and aquifer depletion in semiarid regions subjected to intensive irrigation pumpage. This method can be used to monitor regions where large-scale aquifer depletion is ongoing, and in situ measurements are limited, such as the North China Plain or western India. This potential should be enhanced by future advances in GRACE processing, which will improve the spatial and temporal resolution of TWS changes, and will further increase applicability of GRACE data for monitoring GWS.

Strassberg, Gil↗

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.

Doell, Petra↗

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

Australia↗

Crop phenology and LANDSAT-based irrigated lands inventory in the high plains

The activity concentrated on identifying crop and irrigation data sources for the eight states within the High Plains Aquifer and making contacts concerning the nature of these data. A mail questionnaire was developed to gather specific data not routinely reported through standard data collection channels. Input/output routines were designed for High Plains crop and irrigation data and initial statistical data on crops were input to computer files.

Martinko, E. A.↗

Unlocking aquifer sustainability through irrigator-driven groundwater conservation

Groundwater depletion caused by intensive pumping for irrigated agriculture is a global threat to economies, food security, and ecosystems. Pumping reductions are required to confront this threat, but their implementation is a “wicked” problem due to interlinked hydrological, social, and economic factors. In the US High Plains Aquifer, an irrigator-led conservation effort known as the Sheridan 6 Local Enhanced Management Area (SD-6 LEMA) is a rare example of successful collective action in agricultural-groundwater systems. In its first decade, the area has exceeded water use reduction goals and decreased depletion rates by over 50% without significantly affecting net income. In this Perspective, we highlight factors underlying the SD-6 LEMA’s effectiveness, and identify transferable governance tenets for other groundwater dependent regions striving for sustainable management of groundwater resources. These tenets include flexibility through multi-year allocations, regulatory oversight to support the irrigators’ plans, and a strong scientific foundation for sustainable agricultural-groundwater systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Crop-phenology and LANDSAT-based irrigated lands inventory in the high plains

Crop calendars for 1979 and 1980 were investigated in support of an effort to develop techniques for mapping the High Plains aquifer region. Optimal LANDSAT image dates for 1980 were preliminarily identified based on ESS weekly crop weather reports and 1979 ESS agricultural statistics were entered into the computer. A questionnaire was compiled and sent to ASCS county agents with the approval of the Extension Directors in each state involved. Data from returning questionnaires were tabulated and development started on a set of computer programs to allow the preparation of computer assisted graphic displays of much of the collected data.

Martinko, E. A.↗

Integrating the Interconnections Between Groundwater and Land Surface Processes Through the Coupled NASA Land Information System and ParFlow Environment

Understanding the interactions between the atmosphere, the land, and the subsurface is fundamental to hydrology and is critical for a better assessment of the impacts of climate change and human management on hydrological systems. However, many land surface models simplify the subsurface hydrology and thereby these interactions. In this study, we couple the land surface model Noah-MP included in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the integrated hydrologic model ParFlow (ParFlow-LIS) using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the National United Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). This coupling improves the simulation of water and energy cycle processes by adding the three-dimensional variably saturated and heterogeneous flow in the subsurface using sophisticated and nonlinear physics-based equations as well as the advances in satellite remote sensing-based data assimilation of the land surface, thereby benefiting the integrated hydrologic modeling and data assimilation community. We use the High Plains aquifer, located in the central United States, as a testbed to evaluate the coupled ParFlow-LIS system. The new ParFlow-LIS system accounts for the effects of topographically driven flows on the land surface, producing more fine-scale patterns of land surface states and fluxes than standalone LIS. In addition, ParFlow-LIS enables the consideration of the effect of subsurface water storage on evapotranspiration. This is particularly important in areas and times with dry soils, such as during drought conditions or in the presence of a cone of depression due to pumping.

land surface modeling↗

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The application of remote sensing technology to the inventory of playa lakes in the High Plains of Texas

The feasibility of using LANDSAT digital data to inventory the playa lakes of the High Plains region of Texas was investigated. The project will use the detection and mapping (DAM) package developed at NASA-Johnson Space Center. The economy of the High Plains region is dependent on ground water for irrigation and the Ogallala aquifer is being depleted faster than it is being recharged. The playa lakes represent a potential source of artificial recharge for the aquifer and an inventory is the first step in that direction.

Wyatt, A. W.↗

Ancient Giant Basin/Aquifer System in the Arabia Region, Mars

Ancient geologic/hydrologic phenomena on Mars observed through the magnetic data [1,2] provide windows to the ancient past through the younger Argyre and Hellas impacts [e.g., 3,4], the northern plains basement [5], and the Tharsis and Elysium magmatic complexes (recently referred to as superplumes [6,7]). These signatures, coupled with highly degraded macrostructures (tectonic features that are tens to thousands of km-long [8]), reflect an energetic planet during its embryonic development (.5 Ga or so of activity) with an active dynamo and magnetosphere [1,2,6]. One such window into the ancient past occurs northwest of the Hellas impact basin in Arabia Terra. Arabia Terra is one of the few water-rich equatorial regions of Mars, as indicated through impact crater [9] and elemental [10,11] information. This region records many unique traits, including stratigraphy, topography, cratering record, structural character, geomorphology, and geophysical, elemental, albedo, and thermal inertia signatures. We interpret these to collectively indicate a possible ancient giant impact basin that later became an important aquifer, as it provided yet another source of water for the formation of putative water bodies that occupied the northern plains [12,13] and addresses possible water-related characteristics that may be observed at the Opportunity landing site. This basin is antipodal to Tharsis and estimated to be at least 3,000 km in diameter.

Dohm, James M.↗

Seismic-triggering history of the catastrophic outflows in the Chryse region of Mars

Much attention was recently focused on the Chryse outflow channels as the source for an ocean or large lakes in the northern plains of Mars. A critical question is whether the channels formed quickly and in concert or sporadically. Crosscutting relations demonstrate multiple episodes of channel formation for some of the channels; however, for most channels, the absence of high precision in the densities of superposed impact craters prevents precise reconstruction of the duration and sequence of channeling history. Another approach to addressing the groundwater discharge history is to evaluate the hypothetical storage of the Chryse aquifer system and its recharge and triggering histories. How outflow breakouts may have been triggered by relatively frequent, large marsquakes caused by faulting and impact is discussed.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Carbonate-sulfate volcanism on Venus?

Venusian canali, outflow channels, and associated volcanic deposits resemble fluvial landforms more than they resmeble volcanic features on Earth and Mars. Some canali have meandering habits and features indicative of channel migration that are very similar to meandering river channels and flood plains on Earth, venusian outflow channels closely resemble water-carved outflow channels on Mars and the Channeled Scabland in Washington, collapsed terrains at the sources of some venusian channels resemble chaotic terrains at the sources of martian outflow channels, venusian lava deltas are similar to bird's-foot deltas such as the Mississippi delta, and venusian valley networks indicate sapping. We have developed an alternative possibility that the lava had a water-like rheology and a melting point slightly greater than Venus' surface temperature, thus accounting for the unusual behavior of the lava. Unlike silicate lavas, some carbonatites (including carbonate-sulfate-rich liquids) have these properties; thus they can flow great distances while retaining a high fluidity, significant mechanical erosiveness, and substantial capacity to transport and deposit sediment. Venusian geochemistry and petrology are consistent with extensive eruptions of carbonatite lavas, which could have crustal and/or mantle origins. Venus' atmosphere (especially CO2, HCl, and HF abundances) and rocks may be in local chemical equilibrium, which suggests that the upper crust contains large amounts of calcite, anhydrite, and other salts. Chemical analyses indicate, according to some models, that Venusian rocks may contain 4-19% calcite and anhydrite. Mixtures of crustal salts could melt at temperatures a few tens to a few hundred Kelvins higher than Venus' surface temperature; hence, melting may be induced by modest endogenetic or impact heating. Salts may have many of the same geologic roles on Venus as water and ice have on Mars. A molten salt (carbonatite) 'aquifer' may exist beneath a few hundred meters to several kilometers of solidified salt-rich 'permafrost.' Many geologic features can be explained by carbonatite magmatism: (1) impact melting of crustal salts can explain crater outflows, (2) small, sustained eruptions from molten salt aquifers can explain sapping valleys, (3) large, sustained eruptions may explain canali and their flood plans, and (4) catastrophic outbursts amy have formed outflow channels and chaotic terrain. Landforms created by carbonate-rich lavas would be thermally stable on Venus' surface, though some minerals may weather to other solid substances.

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗

Gale Crater: An Amazonian Impact Crater Lake at the Plateau/Plain Boundary

Gale is a 140-km diameter impact crater located at the plateau/plain boundary in the Aeolis Northeast subquadrangle of Mars (5S/223W). The crater is bordered in the northward direction by the Elysium Basin, and in eastward direction by Hesperian channels and the Aeolis Mensae 2. The crater displays a rim with two distinct erosion stages: (a) though eroded, the south rim of Gale has an apparent crest line visible from the north to the southwest (b) the west and northwest rims are characterized by a strong erosion that, in some places, partially destroyed the rampart, leaving remnant pits embayed in smooth-like deposits. The same type of deposits is observed north, outside Gale, it also borders the Aeolis Mensae, covers the bottom of the plateau scarp, and the crater floor. The central part of Gale shows a 6400 km2 subround and asymmetrical deposit: (a) the south part is composed of smooth material, (b) the north part shows spectacular terraces, streamlines, and channels. The transition between the two parts of the deposit is characterized by a scarp ranging from 200 to 2000 in high. The highest point of the scarp is at the center of the crater, and probably corresponds to a central peak. Gale crater does not show a major channel directly inflowing. However, several large fluvi systems are bordering the crater, and could be at the origin of the flooding of the crater, or have contributed to. One fluvial system is entering the crater by the southwest rim but cannot be accounted alone for the volume of sediment deposited in the crater. This channel erodes the crater floor deposit, and ends in a irregular-shaped and dark albedo feature. Gale crater shows the morphology of a crater filled during sedimentation episodes, and then eroded Part of the lower sediment deposition contained in Gale might be ancient and not only aqueous in origin. According to the regional geologic history, the sedimentary deposit could be a mixture of aeolian and pyroclastic material, and aqueous sedimentary material that can originate both from drainage of the regional subsurface aquifer, and/or from surface flood. The central deposit shows three main levels: (a) the current crater floor (north of Gale), (b) an ancient level about 200 rn higher (south of Gale), and (c) the massive terraced deposits. A crater statistics on the 15,400 kM2 area of the crater floor and deposit [3,41 gave: 259+/-112.4 craters, most of them partly embayed in the sedimentary deposit, and all inferior to 5-km diameter. For superimposed crater population only, the result is 194+/-112. The deduced relative ages ranges from Early to Middle Amazonian. The population of craters are comparable for the three levels, implying that the last sedimentation/erosion episode on Gale was recent and affected the whole crater. The streamlined morphology of the border of the deposit, the layering, the channels, and the terraces are compatible with a significant fluvio-lacustrine history of the site. Multiple levels may suggest different episodes, but the common statistical age of the three levels shows that the last episode involved the whole crater. The origin of the lake water in Gale may have varied in time. Three major contributions have been proposed: (a) the drainage of the regional underground aquifer by Gale crater over an area of 110-km radius around the crater which would have provided approximately 1,600 cubic km of water, (b), surface drainage entering Gale by the south and north rims. In the south, a 250-km long system originates in the cratered uplands in a Noachian crater material plain (Nc), and crosses Hesperian and Amazonian crater material plains (AHc) northward [1]. Several fluvial systems originate in the Aeolis Mensae, east of Gale. They may had two functions in time: to recharge, the underground aquifer in the region of Gale, and to supply surface water in the crater by overspilling the northern rim, and (c) surface floods that originated from the rising of the water level in the Elysium Basin. According to the Amazonian age of Gale's floor, and the erosion direction in the crater, a flood from Elysium Basin is the most likely event to explain the material observed in Gale, and the formation of the last lake. This last flood may have been important enough to flood the central deposit up to about 1400 m above the crater floor, leaving two islands (non stream lined features) at the center of the deposit. Terrace spacing suggests a regular drop of the lake level in time. Fractures in terraces perpendicular to the shoreline can be interpreted either as: (a) the result of the drainage systems during the waning of the lake, or (b) traces of the pressure of an ice-covered sheet associated with subglacial drainage. The presence of a lake of such volume during the Amazonian period is one more evidence that water was still active on Mars relatively recently. Gale crater offers the rare opportunity to unveil a key-period of the martian history. The Amazonian might proved not as cold and dry as previously thought. The presence of large lakes and basins (Elysium Basin is large as the Mediterranean Sea), reinforces the model of an extensive water activity during the Amazonian that has still to be understood in the context of an assumed cooling and drying planet. The sediments and rocks that were left of this period in Gale keep the record of the climatic conditions of the Amazonian and the clues that are missing to understand the climatic evolution of Mars. In addition, Gale crater presents the advantage to be located at the plateau/plain boundary, which has never been studied and contains information about the two main martian geological units. As a conclusion, we propose a table that summarizes the worthiness of a mission in Gale crater, and the expected science return relative to the objectives to be met by the Surveyor Program. Additional information contained in the original.

Cabrol, N. A.↗