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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges for the statistical gravitational-wave method to measure the Hubble constant

Gravitational waves (GW) can be employed as standard sirens that will soon measure the Hubble constant with sufficient precision to weigh in on the ~5σ Hubble tension. Most GW sources will have no identified electromagnetic counterpart, leading to uncertainty in the redshift of the source, and in turn a degeneracy between host galaxy distance, redshift, and H 0 . In the case where no electromagnetic counterparts are identified, it has been proposed that a statistical canvassing of candidate GW hosts, found in a large galaxy survey for example, can be used to accurately constrain the Hubble constant. We study and simulate this "galaxy voting" method to compute H 0 . Here, we find that the Hubble constant posterior is in general biased relative to the true value even when making optimistic assumptions about the statistical properties of the sample. Using the MICECAT light-cone catalog, we find that the bias in the H0 posteriors depends on the realization of the underlying galaxy sample and the precision of the GW source distance measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the Hubble constant from supernova Refsdal’s reappearance

The Hubble constant measures the expansion rate of the Universe, but different methods give inconsistent values. Kelly et al. studied a supernova that had its light split into multiple images by the gravitational lensing of a foreground galaxy cluster. They combined measurements of the time delay between the multiple images with predictions made by multiple lensing models of the cluster. Furthermore, this approach allowed the authors to make a blinded measurement of the Hubble constant, finding a value that is more consistent with that derived from the cosmic microwave background than with the cosmic distance ladder.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A measurement of the Hubble constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT Progressive increases in the precision of the Hubble-constant measurement via Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have shown a discrepancy of ∼4.4σ with the current value inferred from Planck satellite measurements of the cosmic microwave background radiation and the standard $\Lambda $cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model. This disagreement does not appear to be due to known systematic errors and may therefore be hinting at new fundamental physics. Although all of the current techniques have their own merits, further improvement in constraining the Hubble constant requires the development of as many independent methods as possible. In this work, we use SNe II as standardisable candles to obtain an independent measurement of the Hubble constant. Using seven SNe II with host-galaxy distances measured from Cepheid variables or the tip of the red giant branch, we derive H$_0= 75.8^{+5.2}_{-4.9}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only). Our value favours that obtained from the conventional distance ladder (Cepheids + SNe Ia) and exhibits a difference of 8.4 km s−1 Mpc−1 from the Planck + ΛCDM value. Adding an estimate of the systematic errors (2.8 km s−1 Mpc−1) changes the ∼1.7σ discrepancy with Planck +ΛCDM to ∼1.4σ. Including the systematic errors and performing a bootstrap simulation, we confirm that the local H0 value exceeds the value from the early Universe with a confidence level of 95 per cent. As in this work, we only exchange SNe II for SNe Ia to measure extragalactic distances, we demonstrate that there is no evidence that SNe Ia are the source of the H0 tension.

de Jaeger, T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of the Hubble Constant with a Two-rung Distance Ladder: Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad

Abstract The three-rung distance ladder, which calibrates Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) through stellar distances linked to geometric measurements, provides the highest precision direct measurement of the Hubble constant. In light of the Hubble tension, it is important to test the individual components of the distance ladder. For this purpose, we report a measurement of the Hubble constant from 35 extragalactic Cepheid hosts measured by the SH0ES team, using their distances and redshifts at cz ≤ 3300 km s −1 , instead of any more distant SNe Ia, to measure the Hubble flow. The Cepheid distances are calibrated geometrically in the Milky Way, NGC 4258, and the Large Magellanic Cloud. Peculiar velocities are a significant source of systematic uncertainty at z ∼ 0.01, and we present a formalism for both mitigating and quantifying their effects, making use of external reconstructions of the density and velocity fields in the nearby universe. We identify a significant source of uncertainty originating from different assumptions about the selection criteria of this sample, whether distance or redshift limited, as it was assembled over three decades. Modeling these assumptions yields central values ranging from H 0 = 71.7 to 76.4 km s −1 Mpc −1 . Combining the four best-fitting selection models yields H 0 = 72.9 − 2.2 + 2.4 as a fiducial result, at 2.4 σ tension with Planck. While SNe Ia are essential for a precise measurement of H 0 , unknown systematics in these supernovae are unlikely to be the source of the Hubble tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can late dark energy transitions raise the Hubble constant?

Late times dark energy transitions at redshifts z << 0.1 can raise the predicted value of the Hubble constant to the SH0ES value, 74.03 ± 1.42 (km s –1 Mpc –1 ) or more, while providing an equally good fit as Λ CDM at 67.73±0.41 to higher redshift data, in particular from the cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillations. Here, these models however do not fully resolve the true source of tension between the distance ladder and high redshift observations: the local calibration of supernovae luminosities well out into the Hubble flow. When tested in this manner by transferring the SH0ES calibration to the Pantheon supernovae dataset, the ability of such transitions to raise the Hubble constant is reduced to 69.17 ± 1.09. Such an analysis should also be used when testing any dynamical dark energy model which can produce similarly fine features in redshift or local void models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Determining the Hubble constant through cross-correlation of galaxies and gravitational waves

Gravitational-wave (GW) standard sirens have the potential to measure the Hubble constant 𝐻 0 in the local Universe independent of the distance ladder and thus offer unique insights into the Hubble tension. A key challenge with standard sirens is detecting their electromagnetic counterparts and therefore assigning redshifts to the measured distances. One promising way to proceed is to utilize GW dark sirens—events without an identified electromagnetic counterpart—and cross-correlate their angular distribution with that of galaxies. We present a quantitative study of how precisely the Hubble constant can be measured using tomographic cross-correlation between galaxies and GW sources. Altogether, we find that the constraints on 𝐻 0 will be limited by the quality and quantity of GW data. We find that percent-level constraints on 𝐻 0 will primarily depend on achieving small distance uncertainties (𝜎 𝑑𝐿 = 0.1⁢𝑑 𝐿 ), obtaining a large number of GW dark sirens (≳ 5⁢000) and accurate sky localization in the tomographic analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2024

TDCOSMO - XVI. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the lensed quasar WGD 2038–4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant (H0). The TDCOSMO Collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038−4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain DΔ t = 1.68−0.38+0.40 Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat ΛCDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 65−14+23 km s−1 Mpc−1. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / cosmological parameters / distance scale⋆ Corresponding author; kcwong19@gmail.com.⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein fellow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using lower-redshift, non-CMB, data to constrain the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters

Here we use updated Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation data, as well as other lower-redshift Type Ia supernova, Mg ii reverberation-measured quasar, quasar angular size, H ii starburst galaxy, and Amati-correlated gamma-ray burst data, to jointly constrain cosmological parameters in six cosmological models. The joint analysis provides model-independent determinations of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.7 ± 1.2 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.295 ± 0.017. These error bars are factors of 2.2 and 2.3 larger than the corresponding error bars in the flat ΛCDM model from Planck TT,TE,EE+lowE+lensing cosmic microwave background anisotropy data. Based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), the flat ΛCDM model is most favored but mild dark energy dynamics and a little spatial curvature are not ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-scale Gravitational Lens Modeling with Bayesian Neural Networks for Accurate and Precise Inference of the Hubble Constant

We investigate the use of approximate Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) in modeling hundreds of time delay gravitational lenses for Hubble constant (H 0 ) determination. Here, our BNN was trained on synthetic Hubble Space Telescope quality images of strongly lensed active galactic nuclei with lens galaxy light included. The BNN can accurately characterize the posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of model parameters governing the elliptical power-law mass profile in an external shear field. We then propagate the BNN-inferred posterior PDFs into an ensemble H 0 inference, using simulated time delay measurements from a plausible dedicated monitoring campaign. Assuming well-measured time delays and a reasonable set of priors on the environment of the lens, we achieve a median precision of 9.3% per lens in the inferred H 0 . A simple combination of a set of 200 test lenses results in a precision of 0.5 km s –1 Mpc –1 (0.7%), with no detectable bias in this H 0 recovery test. The computation time for the entire pipeline—including the generation of the training set, BNN training and H0 inference—translates to 9 minutes per lens on average for 200 lenses and converges to 6 minutes per lens as the sample size is increased. Being fully automated and efficient, our pipeline is a promising tool for exploring ensemble-level systematics in lens modeling for H 0 inference.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimessenger constraints on the neutron-star equation of state and the Hubble constant

Observations of neutron-star mergers with distinct messengers, including gravitational waves and electromagnetic signals, can be used to study the behavior of matter denser than an atomic nucleus and to measure the expansion rate of the Universe as quantified by the Hubble constant. We performed a joint analysis of the gravitational-wave event GW170817 with its electromagnetic counterparts AT2017gfo and GRB170817A, and the gravitational-wave event GW190425, both originating from neutron-star mergers. We combined these with previous measurements of pulsars using x-ray and radio observations, and nuclear-theory computations using chiral effective field theory, to constrain the neutron-star equation of state. We found that the radius of a 1.4–solar mass neutron star is 11.75 − 0.81 + 0.86 km at 90% confidence and the Hubble constant is 66.2 − 4.2 + 4.4 at 1σ uncertainty.

Dietrich, Tim↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Hubble Constant from Strongly Lensed Supernovae with Standardizable Magnifications

The dominant uncertainty in the current measurement of the Hubble constant (H 0 ) with strong gravitational lensing time delays is attributed to uncertainties in the mass profiles of the main deflector galaxies. Strongly lensed supernovae (glSNe) can provide, in addition to measurable time delays, lensing magnification constraints when knowledge about the unlensed apparent brightness of the explosion is imposed. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine a data set of SNe that are not strongly lensed and a data set of strongly lensed SNe with measured time delays. We jointly constrain (i) H 0 using the time delays as an absolute distance indicator, (ii) the lens model profiles using the magnification ratio of lensed and unlensed fluxes on the population level, and (iii) the unlensed apparent magnitude distribution of the SN population and the redshift–luminosity relation of the relative expansion history of the universe. We apply our joint inference framework on a future expected data set of glSNe and forecast that a sample of 144 glSNe of Type Ia with well-measured time series and imaging data will measure H 0 to 1.5%. We discuss strategies to mitigate systematics associated with using absolute flux measurements of glSNe to constrain the mass density profiles. Using the magnification of SN images is a promising and complementary alternative to using stellar kinematics. Future surveys, such as the Rubin and Roman observatories, will be able to discover the necessary number of glSNe, and with additional follow-up observations, this methodology will provide precise constraints on mass profiles and H 0 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant Using Gravitational-wave Events from the First Three LIGO/Virgo Observing Runs and the DESI Legacy Survey

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant H 0 using a sample of well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs as dark standard sirens. In the case of dark standard sirens, a unique host galaxy is not identified, and the redshift information comes from the distribution of potential host galaxies. From the third LIGO/Virgo observing run detections, we add the asymmetric-mass binary black hole GW190412 and the high-confidence GW candidates S191204r, S200129m, and S200311bg to the sample of dark standard sirens analyzed in Palmese et al. Our sample contains the top 20% (based on localization) GW events and candidates to date with significant coverage by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Survey. We combine the H 0 posterior for eight dark siren events, finding H 0 = $79.8^{+19.1}_{-12.8}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest density interval) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20, 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result shows that a combination of eight well-localized dark sirens combined with an appropriate galaxy catalog is able to provide an H 0 constraint that is competitive (~20% versus 18% precision) with a single bright standard siren analysis (i.e., assuming the electromagnetic counterpart) using GW170817. When combining the posterior with that from GW170817, we obtain H 0 = $72.77^{+11.0}_{-7.55}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result is broadly consistent with recent H 0 estimates from both the cosmic microwave background and supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model independent comparison of supernova and strong lensing cosmography: Implications for the Hubble constant tension

We use supernovae measurements, calibrated by the local determination of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by SH0ES, to interpolate the distance-redshift relation using Gaussian process regression. We then predict, independent of the cosmological model, the distances that are measured with strong lensing time delays to test their mutual agreement. In this work we find excellent agreement between these predictions and the measurements. The agreement holds when we consider only the redshift dependence of the distance-redshift relation, independent of the value of $H_0$. Our results disfavor the possibility that lens mass modeling contributes a 10% bias or uncertainty in the strong lensing analysis, as suggested recently in the literature. In general our analysis strengthens the case that residual systematic errors in both measurements are below the level of the current discrepancy with the CMB determination of $H_0$, and supports the possibility of new physical phenomena on cosmological scales. With additional data our methodology can provide more stringent tests of unaccounted for systematics in the determinations of the distance-redshift relation in the late universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

CATS: The Hubble Constant from Standardized TRGB and Type Ia Supernova Measurements

The tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) provides a luminous standard candle for constructing distance ladders to measure the Hubble constant. In practice, its measurements via edge-detection response (EDR) are complicated by the apparent fuzziness of the tip and the multipeak landscape of the EDR. Previously, we optimized an unsupervised algorithm, Comparative Analysis of TRGBs, to minimize the variance among multiple halo fields per host without relying on individualized choices, achieving state-of-the-art ~<0.05 mag distance measures for optimal data. Here we apply this algorithm to an expanded sample of SN Ia hosts to standardize these to multiple fields in the geometric anchor, NGC 4258. In concert with the Pantheon+ SN Ia sample, this analysis produces a (baseline) result of H 0 = 73.22 ± 2.06 km s -1 Mpc -1 . The largest difference in H 0 between this and similar studies employing the TRGB derives from corrections for SN survey differences and local flows used in the most recent SN Ia compilations that were absent in earlier studies. The SN-related differences total ~2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 . A smaller share, ~1.4 km s -1 Mpc -1 , results from the inhomogeneity of the TRGB calibration across the distance ladder. We employ a grid of 108 variants around the optimal TRGB algorithm and find that the median of the variants is 72.94 ± 1.98 km s -1 Mpc -1 with an additional uncertainty due to algorithm choices of 0.83 km s -1 Mpc -1 . None of these TRGB variants result in an H 0 of less than 71.6 km s -1 Mpc -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Dark Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant with the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Event GW190412 and DESI Galaxies

Abstract We present a measurement of the Hubble Constant H 0 using the gravitational wave event GW190412, an asymmetric binary black hole merger detected by LIGO/Virgo, as a dark standard siren. This event does not have an electromagnetic counterpart, so we use the statistical standard siren method and marginalize over potential host galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. GW190412 is well-localized to 12 deg 2 (90% credible interval), so it is promising for a dark siren analysis. The dark siren value for H 0 = 85.4 − 33.9 + 29.1 km s −1 Mpc −1 , with a posterior shape that is consistent with redshift overdensities. When combined with the bright standard siren measurement from GW170817 we recover H 0 = 77.96 − 5.03 + 23.0 km s −1 Mpc −1 , consistent with both early and late-time Universe measurements of H 0 . This work represents the first standard siren analysis performed with DESI data, and includes the most complete spectroscopic sample used in a dark siren analysis to date.

Ballard, W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Statistical Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Compact Object Merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey Galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 M ⊙ black hole with a 2.6 M ⊙ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event; thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo- z ) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Furthermore, our analysis uses photo- z probability distribution functions and corrects for photo- z biases. We also reanalyze the binary black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the H 0 constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814, and GW170817, our analysis yields H 0 =72.0$_{+12}^{–8.2}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest-density interval, HDI) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20 and 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68% HDI from GW170817 alone by ~18%, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗