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At least 19 records

Integrating Spatial and Ethnographic Methods for Resilience Research: A Thick Mapping Approach for Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria left unprecedented impacts on Puerto Rican communities, leaving some without infrastructure services and unable to communicate with family for several months. Here, to understand the forms of community-level resilience that emerged while hard infrastructure systems took time recover, this article (1) abductively explores resilience as an emergent phenomenon of complex adaptive systems; (2) identifies subsequent forms of social capital, local adaptive capacities, and manifestations of quantifiable variables, such as infrastructure performance, in community experiences; and (3) demonstrates a framework to integrate disparate methodologies for resilience assessments via a multiplicity of mappings of space and place. We combine ethnographic and geospatial methods into an interactive GeoApp for analysis using participant-coded narratives and a series of geospatial indicators as a thick map. Thick mapping facilitates quantitative and qualitative data analysis at several scales, while enabling qualitative query of collected narratives. Results highlight local innovation, community bonding and bridging, and nuances in the role of public institutions as emergent elements of resilience. The thick map shows how top-down assessments can be augmented by thick data and how multiple framings can be anchored in the same system or place. These findings are important to inform and integrate community-oriented and technocentric solutions toward resilience-enhancing measures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗

Tracking the Rates and Mechanisms of Canopy Damage and Recovery Following Hurricane Maria Using Multitemporal Lidar Data

Hurricane Maria, a Category 4 storm, snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne Lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100–800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥ 1 m in canopy height (mean = −7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13.5% of the study area had canopy heights ≤ 2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss > 1 m (2017–2018) followed by rapid height gain > 1 m (2018–2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no height changes larger than ± 1 m in either period. Canopy layers < 10 m tall accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018 and 2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage and highlight the diversity of ecosystem impacts from heterogeneous spatial patterns and vertical stratification of forest regrowth following a major disturbance event.

forest structure↗

Social-ecological interactions in a disaster context: Puerto Rican farmer households’ food security after Hurricane Maria

Islands are uniquely vulnerable to extreme weather events and food insecurity, and have additional response challenges due to their limited landmasses and economies, isolation, colonial legacies, and high dependence of food imports. Domestic farmers have a key role in producing food for island communities like Puerto Rico, which can safeguard food security when food importation may be challenging. Nevertheless, in the context of disaster, farmers themselves may be vulnerable to food insecurity and unable to contribute to domestic markets. This paper examines Puerto Rican farmers households’ food security in the aftermath of 2017’s Hurricane Maria using a social-ecological lens. Survey data from 405 farmers gathered eight months after Maria, coupled with biophysical data from the hurricane’s impacts (winds, rains, and landslides), were analyzed. Overall, 69% of farmers experienced at least one month of food insecurity in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, and 38% reported persistent food insecurity (three months or more). A multinomial logistic regression suggests that biophysical impacts, but especially social factors, such as age and constraint access to external sources of support, are linked with persistent food insecurity. This suggests that the biophysical impacts of the hurricane interact with existing infrastructure and social resources to affect farmer vulnerability and the food environment in different ways. Thus, strengthening adaptive capacity in multiple domains can help farmers and vulnerable populations better navigate the disruptions faced during disasters to alleviate food insecurity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Canopy damage and recovery following Hurricane Maria using multitemporal lidar data, Mar/2017 - Mar/2020, Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria (Category 4) snapped and uprooted canopy trees, removed large branches, and defoliated vegetation across Puerto Rico. The magnitude of forest damages and the rates and mechanisms of forest recovery following Maria provide important benchmarks for understanding the ecology of extreme events. We used airborne lidar data acquired before (2017) and after Maria (2018, 2020) to quantify landscape-scale changes in forest structure along a 439-ha elevational gradient (100 to 800 m) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Damages from Maria were widespread, with 73% of the study area losing ≥1 m in canopy height (mean = -7.1 m). Taller forests at lower elevations suffered more damage than shorter forests above 600 m. Yet only 13% of the study area had canopy heights ≤2 m in 2018, a typical threshold for forest gaps, highlighting the importance of damaged trees and advanced regeneration on post-storm forest structure. Heterogeneous patterns of regrowth and recruitment yielded shorter and more open forests by 2020. Nearly 45% of forests experienced initial height loss (<-1 m, 2017-2018) followed by rapid height gain (>1 m, 2018-2020), whereas 21.6% of forests with initial height losses showed little or no height gain, and 17.8% of forests exhibited no structural changes >|1| m in either period. Canopy layers <10 m accounted for most increases in canopy height and fractional cover between 2018-2020, with gains split evenly between height growth and lateral crown expansion by surviving individuals. These findings benchmark rates of gap formation, crown expansion, and canopy closure following hurricane damage. Included in the attached zip file are four TIF and four KML files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Restoring the Dunes: Using Satellite Imagery to Help Restore Turtle Nesting Grounds In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria

The North coast of Puerto Rico sustained heavy damage from Hurricane Maria and other subsequent tropical storms. This damage included erosion of beaches and foredunes. The foredunes are a delicate ecological environment, which provides important nesting grounds for endangered turtles. Local ecologists have been working to restore these dunes with mixed results. Presented here is an evaluation of dune restoration sites, and strategies to improve the success of subsequent restoration efforts. This involves both historical satellite image analysis and field work to evaluate sediment migration pathways. Local ecologists use a technique called Biomimicry to restore dunes. This involves inserting sticks or plants into the ground, simulating the effects of natural vegetation to slow wind speeds and deposit wind-blown sand. Manually planted vegetation can follow to stabilize the trapped sand. While often successful, this technique occasionally fails to accumulate significant amounts of sand. Satellite imagery shows that one of the controlling factors is the orientation of the dune and beach to the prevailing wind. Dunes that are oriented parallel to the prevailing wind are relatively slower-growing due to sediment bypass. Satellite imagery also indicates that the fastest growing dunes are in close proximity to major sediment sources. This is complicated by large dams, which limit the amount of sediment delivered to the coast. Field observation shows that biomimicry matrices are occasionally located too close to the swash zone, where storms over-top the dunes, poisoning stabilizing vegetation with salt water. Another common observation was that many dunes were starting to form behind fallen trees, suggesting that a different type of biomimicry might be successful. Satellite and field observation suggest that strategies to protect nearshore environments and improve dune restoration biomimicry efforts include: 1) orient biomimicry matrices at a higher angle to prevailing winds. 2) Prioritize sites near river mouths, particularly those without upstream dams. 3) Test other orientations of biomimicry, such as horizontal boards to mimic fallen trees. 4) Improve sediment supply by preventing further dam development, and releasing trapped sediment.

Paul Bremner↗

Puerto Rico Grid and Recovery Post Hurricane Maria

This presentation discusses the impact of and recovery from Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico. The hurricanes hit two weeks apart in 2017, resulting in damage to all elements (generation, distribution, and transmission) of Puerto Rico's already fragile energy system.

demand response↗

A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Here, we propose a supervised learning approach using publicly available panel data to statistically quantify the specific manifestations of human impacts of an extreme event, such as changes number of suicides, substance abuse, excess mortality, and unemployment. This allows us to conceptually focus our framework on human impacts and how by attributing them to disaster events along widely accepted psychological, economic, and social dimensions. Our modified treatment-effect model allows counterfactual baseline conditions to be posited for each manifestation from which an aggregated quantitative multi-faceted measure of human impacts can be determined. The developed statistical methodology could be beneficial to policymakers who must allocate scarce resources to those communities in greater need. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using annual and monthly panel data from 2012 to 2018 encompassing the 2017 Hurricane Maria event across various municipalities in Puerto Rico. Our statistical modeling methodology stands apart since (i) it explicitly and more realistically captures the effect of different human-oriented manifestations of an actual event and (ii) it is flexible enough to accommodate individual preferences of various stakeholders in how they assign importance to multiple manifestations of human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimal Portfolio Design of Distributed Energy Resources on Puerto Rico Distribution Feeders with Long Outages after Hurricane Maria

This work details a project to design reliable, resilient, and cost-effective networked microgrids considering grid constraints and resilience metrics focused on Puerto Rico distribution feeder locations with long outages after Hurricane Maria. The project consisted primarily of modeling and simulation tasks that accomplished the following objectives: 1. Selected 10 distribution feeder models in vulnerable areas. The sample feeders are geographically distributed across Puerto Rico and vary in length to capture the wide variety of feeders on the island. 2. Determined the optimal location and sizing of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the identified distribution feeders. The systems considered as part of the microgrid solutions were solar photovoltaic (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS) and distributed fossil fuel generation (DFFG). 3. Estimated the cost-benefit of the proposed DER portfolios. 4. Provided a set of final recommendations that inform decision making on how to do targeted planning analysis for microgrids that can supply energy to critical infrastructures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy Resilient Recovery in Puerto Rico: Hurricane Maria Recovery Support

This report covers microgrids as a special application of distributed energy resources (DERs) in Puerto Rico. This is one of a series of reports describing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) multi-laboratory efforts undertaken. To ensure the sustainable, long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes Maria and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, DOE convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. In Phase 1 of the multi-laboratory effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected, renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliability, safety, or security (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73848.pdf). In Phase 2, NREL published a report focused on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77127.pdf). This report familiarized the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provided considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 1547-2018 interconnection standard. Additionally, the report identified ways to improve the physical resiliency of installed DERs. This task describes how distributed energy systems may participate in and contribute to improving the resiliency of Puerto Rico's energy infrastructure in the future. This report presents an analysis of the Puerto Rico grid to illustrate the possible different microgrid and minigrid scenarios. The capability to form sustained microgrids and minigrids has the potential to provide a high level of resiliency during disturbances on the grid. DERs, on the other hand, have the capability to aid in the microgrid operation by providing grid support as well as grid-forming functionality. Other tasks in Phase 3 include voltage regulation in distribution networks using DERs and transmission-and-distribution co-simulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SPATIOTEMPORAL TRACKING OF WIDE AREA POWER OUTAGE FROM NIGHT-TIME LIGHT IMAGERY

Monitoring progress of power restoration following extreme events is essential for situational awareness about spatio-temporal distribution of populations without power and to help with response efforts. Because of the proprietary nature of restoration data, and the difficulty in obtaining power outage data from utility companies in near real-time (e.g., during hurricane Maria (2017)), this project used satellite derived nighttime lights data from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) to (i) monitor wide area power outage and (ii) estimate impacted customers over time to assist with restoration. A discussion of the methodology and its implementation during hurricanes Maria (2017) and Eta (2020) is presented in this paper. Future work will focus on calibrating estimated customers based on light intensity and density distribution, and generation of restoration profiles for emergency response.

Kar, Bandana↗

Energy Resilience Assessment for Culebra, Puerto Rico

Culebra, Puerto Rico, is in the Caribbean Sea between the main island of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Since the impact of Hurricane Maria on September 20, 2017, the main underwater electric line that powered Culebra has not been in service and electricity was out for approximately 3 months. The time to repair the underwater electric line was estimated to be 5 years at the time of the site visits in May of 2018; in the meantime, two 2-MW diesel generators provide a total of 4 MW of electricity to the island. The status of the electrical grid throughout the Puerto Rican islands has been evolving continuously after Hurricane Maria. Renewable energy hybrid (diesel generator plus PV plus battery) microgrids can provide more resilient power and increase survivability to minimize the devastating effects of future storms. The major goal of the site assessments was to identify potential locations where renewable energy hybrid microgrids could promote the energy resilience of critical infrastructure and determine potential ground areas for solar PV.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy: Preventing and Responding to Extreme Events

This presentation discusses the aftermath of Hurricane Maria's landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017. Maria incapacitated Puerto Rico's power systems, leaving the entire island without electricity and access to fresh water. Some parts are still recovering years later. A resilient electric grid is vital to Puerto Rico's security, economy, and way of life.

demand impacts↗

Increasing Resiliency to Extreme Weather

We work at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, integrating the agency's satellite imagery and projections of extreme weather events into urban planning. In recent weeks, we have watched as Christian's hometown, Houston, has been ransacked by historic rainfall and flooding and Hurricane Irma has battered the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Florida. Then, Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico leaving millions of people without power. Sea-level rise, storm surge, warm ocean temperatures, and extreme rainfall interacted to exacerbate the damages incurred by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Coastal flooding combined with inland flooding to wreak extraordinary havoc.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Jobos Bay Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Analyze Shoreline Changes and Understand the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Southern Puerto Rico

High intensity storms and coastal development negatively impact the ecosystems of Jobos Bay, Puerto Rico, by causing reductions in mangrove forests and degradation of water quality. These changes can compromise the ecosystem services, economic value, and cultural significance provided to the community by Jobos Bay. In collaboration with the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (JBNERR), the Jobos Bay Water Resources II team used Earth observations to investigate water quality, watersheds land use land cover (LULC) changes, and the impact of Hurricanes Maria and Irma on mangrove forest area. This information will improve JBNERR’s understanding of the impacts of development and weather events on Jobos Bay, and will inform future shoreline management decisions that ensure continued quality of the ecosystem. Mangrove extent was examined using imagery from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), WorldView 2 WV110, and WorldView 3 WV110. Imagery from Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) was used to map watersheds LULC. Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI data were analyzed with in situ data collected at the time of satellite overpass to investigate water quality in Jobos Bay. Reduction from 2017 mangrove extent was observed in 2018 following the hurricane events, and area of mapped extent was greater than 2018 in 2021. Water quality derived from satellite data was compared to in situ water quality measurements to inform future methodology decisions.

Lily Oliver↗