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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Interfacial Ice Density Fluctuations Inform Surface Ice-Philicity

The propensity of a surface to nucleate ice or bind to ice is governed by its ice-philicity─its relative preference for ice over liquid water. However, the relationship between the features of a surface and its ice-philicity is not well understood, and for surfaces with chemical or topographical heterogeneity, such as proteins, their ice-philicity is not even well-defined. In the analogous problem of surface hydrophobicity, it has been shown that hydrophobic surfaces display enhanced low water-density (vapor-like) fluctuations in their vicinity. To interrogate whether enhanced ice-like fluctuations are similarly observed near ice-philic surfaces, here we use molecular simulations and enhanced sampling techniques. Using a family of model surfaces for which the wetting coefficient, k , has previously been characterized, we show that the free energy of observing rare interfacial ice-density fluctuations decreases monotonically with increasing k . By utilizing this connection, we investigate a set of fcc systems and find that the (110) surface is more ice-philic than the (111) or (100) surfaces. By additionally analyzing the structure of interfacial ice, we find that all surfaces prefer to bind to the basal plane of ice, and the topographical complementarity of the (110) surface to the basal plane explains its higher ice-philicity. Using enhanced interfacial ice-like fluctuations as a measure of surface ice-philicity, we then characterize the ice-philicity of chemically heterogeneous and topologically complex systems. In particular, we study the spruce budworm antifreeze protein (sbwAFP), which binds to ice using a known ice-binding site (IBS) and resists engulfment using nonbinding sites of the protein (NBSs). We find that the IBS displays enhanced interfacial ice-density fluctuations and is therefore more ice-philic than the two NBSs studied. We also find the two NBSs are similarly ice-phobic. By establishing a connection between interfacial ice-like fluctuations and surface ice-philicity, our findings thus provide a way to characterize the ice-philicity of heterogeneous surfaces.

crystals↗
DOE OSTI2015

Application of an Online-Coupled Regional Climate Model, WRF-CAM5, over East Asia for Examination of Ice Nucleation Schemes: Part II. Sensitivity to Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Parameterizations and Dust Emissions

Aerosol particles can affect cloud microphysical properties by serving as ice nuclei (IN). Large uncertainties exist in the ice nucleation parameterizations (INPs) used in current climate models. In this Part II paper, to examine the sensitivity of the model predictions to different heterogeneous INPs, WRF-CAM5 simulation using the INP of Niemand et al. (N12) [1] is conducted over East Asia for two full years, 2006 and 2011, and compared with simulation using the INP of Meyers et al. (M92) [2], which is the original INP used in CAM5. M92 calculates the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of ice supersaturation, while N12 represents the nucleated ice particle concentration as a function of temperature and the number concentrations and surface areas of dust particles. Compared to M92, the WRF-CAM5 simulation with N12 produces significantly higher nucleated ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in the northern domain where dust sources are located, leading to significantly higher cloud ice number and mass concentrations and ice water path, but the opposite is true in the southern domain where temperatures and moistures play a more important role in ice formation. Overall, the simulation with N12 gives lower downward shortwave radiation but higher downward longwave radiation, cloud liquid water path, cloud droplet number concentrations, and cloud optical depth. The increase in cloud optical depth and the decrease in downward solar flux result in a stronger shortwave and longwave cloud forcing, and decreases temperature at 2-m and precipitation. Changes in temperature and radiation lower surface concentrations of OH, O3, SO42−, and PM2.5, but increase surface concentrations of CO, NO2, and SO2 over most of the domain. By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and IN, dust particles have different impacts on cloud water and ice number concentrations, radiation, and temperature at 2-m and precipitation depending on whether the dominant role of dust is CCN or IN. These results indicate the importance of the heterogeneous ice nucleation treatments and dust emissions in accurately simulating regional climate and air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characterization of Three Novel SXT/R391 Integrating Conjugative Elements ICE Mfu Ind1a and ICE Mfu Ind1b, and ICE Mpr Chn1 Identified in the Genomes of Marinomonas fungiae JCM 18476 T and Marinomonas profundimaris Strain D104

The genus Marinomonas comprises Gram negative bacteria which are widespread in the marine environment and there is no report on the genomic analysis of SXT/R391 ICEs derived from this group of bacteria. This study describes the genomic features of three new SXT/R391 integrating conjugating elements (ICEs) identified in the genome of Marinomonas fungiae JCM 18476 T (ICE Mfu Ind1a and ICE Mfu Ind1b) and in Marinomonas profundimaris strain D104 (ICE Mpr Chn1). Structural organizations of the three ICEs were similar to the typical SXT/R391 family of ICEs and showed high degree of conservation in the core genes. Sequence analysis revealed ICE Mfu Ind1b and ICE Mpr Chn1 were inserted into the genome at 5'-end of an typical host prfC gene, while ICE Mfu Ind1a was inserted at 5'-end of an atypical hipA -like gene. Despite their coexistence, the ICE Mfu Ind1a and ICE Mfu Ind1b were not present in a tandem fashion in the genome of M. fungiae . Phylogenetic analyses revealed the three ICEs either evolved independently or high degrees of recombination events had masked their evolution from a common SXT ancestor. Further, we found that the typical entry exclusion mechanism mediated by the TraG/EeX protein pair was likely defective in preventing the conjugative transfer of a second copy of the same S (SXT) group ICE into the M. fungiae genome due to mutations. Our analysis showed the presence of 16, 25, and 27 variable genes in the hotspots of ICE Mfu Ind1a, ICE Mfu Ind1b, and ICE Mpr Chn1, respectively, many of which were not reported earlier for SXT/R391 ICEs. Sequence analysis predicted these hot spot regions were shaped by acquisition of genes through homologous recombination between the SXT and R391 related ICEs or mobile genetic elements present in disparate marine bacteria. Multidrug resistance genes which are hallmark feature of SXT/R391 ICEs were not present in either of the two ICEs from M. fungiae but were present within a transposon cassette in the HS-1 of the ICE Mpr Chn1 from M. profundimaris . Lastly, our data provided information on the genetic diversity and predicted functions encoded by variable genes present in the hotspot regions of these new ICEs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model con figurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): a study of broadband radiometric measurements under icing conditions in the Arctic

Abstract. Surface-based measurements of broadband shortwave (solar) and longwave (infrared) radiative fluxes using thermopile radiometers are made regularly around the globe for scientific and operational environmental monitoring. The occurrence of ice on sensor windows in cold environments – whether snow, rime, or frost – is a common problem that is difficult to prevent as well as difficult to correct in post-processing. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) community recognizes radiometer icing as a major outstanding measurement uncertainty. Towards constraining this uncertainty, the De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE) was carried out at the NOAA Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, from August 2017 to July 2018. The purpose of D-ICE was to evaluate existing ventilation and heating technologies developed to mitigate radiometer icing. D-ICE consisted of 20 pyranometers and 5 pyrgeometers operating in various ventilator housings alongside operational systems that are part of NOAA's Barrow BSRN station and the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program North Slope of Alaska and Oliktok Point observatories. To detect icing, radiometers were monitored continuously using cameras, with a total of more than 1 million images of radiometer domes archived. Ventilator and ventilator–heater performance overall was skillful with the average of the systems mitigating ice formation 77 % (many >90 %) of the time during which icing conditions were present. Ventilators without heating elements were also effective and capable of providing heat through roughly equal contributions of waste energy from the ventilator fan and adiabatic heating downstream of the fan. This provided ∼0.6 ∘C of warming, enough to subsaturate the air up to a relative humidity (with respect to ice) of ∼105 %. Because the mitigation technologies performed well, a near complete record of verified ice-free radiometric fluxes was assembled for the duration of the campaign. This well-characterized data set is suitable for model evaluation, in particular for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) first Special Observing Period (SOP1). We used the data set to calculate short- and long-term biases in iced sensors, finding that biases can be up to +60 W m−2 (longwave) and −211 to +188 W m−2 (shortwave). However, because of the frequency of icing, mitigation of ice by ventilators, cloud conditions, and the timing of icing relative to available sunlight, the biases in the monthly means were generally less than the aggregate uncertainty attributed to other conventional sources in both the shortwave and longwave.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Abstract. Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radio-echo sounding of Crary Ice Rise reveals abundant marine ice in former ice shelf rifts and basal crevasses

Crary Ice Rise formed after the Ross Ice Shelf re-grounded ~1 kyr BP. We present new ice-penetrating radar data from two systems operating at center frequencies of 7 and 750 MHz that confirm the ice rise is composed of a former ice shelf buried by subsequent accumulation. Stacks of englacial diffraction hyperbolas are present almost everywhere across the central ice rise and extend up to ~350 m above the bed. In many cases, bed reflections beneath the diffraction hyperbolas are obscured for distances up to 1 km. Waveform modeling indicates that the diffraction hyperbolas are likely caused by marine ice deposits in former basal crevasses and rifts. The in-filling of rifts and basal crevasses may have strengthened the connection between the ice rise and the surrounding ice shelf, which could have influenced local and regional ice dynamics. Three internal reflection horizons mark the upper limit of disturbed ice and diffraction hyperbolas in different sections of the ice rise, indicating at least three stages of flow stabilization across the ice rise. A surface lineation visible in MODIS imagery corresponds spatially to deepening and strong deformation of these layers, consistent with the characteristics of former grounding lines observed elsewhere in Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Explosive Ice Multiplication Induced by Multiplicative-Noise Fluctuation of Mechanical Breakup in Ice–Ice Collisions

The number of ice fragments generated by breakup of large graupel in collisions with small graupel fluctuates randomly owing to fluctuations in relative sizes and densities of colliding graupel particles and the stochastic nature of fracture propagation. This paper investigates the impact of the stochasticity of breakup on ice multiplication. When both the rate of generation of primary ice and the initial number concentration of ice crystals are low, the system most likely loses all the initial ice and graupel owing to a lack of sustaining sources. Even randomness does not change this mean evolution of the system in its phase space. However, a fluctuation of ice breakup number gives a small but finite chance that substantial ice crystal fragments are generated by breakup of large graupel. That, in turn, generates more large graupel. This multiplicative process due to fluctuations potentially leads to a small but finite chance of explosive growth of ice number.A rigorous stochastic analysis demonstrates this point quantitatively. The randomness considered here belongs to a particular category called ‘‘multiplicative’’ noise, because the noise amplitude is proportional to a given physical state. To contrast the multiplicative-noise nature of ice breakup with a standard ‘‘additive’’ noise process, fluctuation of the primary ice generation rate is also considered as an example of the latter. These processes are examined by taking the Fokker–Planck equation that explicitly describes the evolution of the probability distribution with time. As an important conclusion, stability in the phase space of the cloud microphysical system of breakup in ice–ice collisions is substantially altered by the multiplicative noise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ice Caps and Ice Belts: The Effects of Obliquity on Ice−Albedo Feedback

Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice−albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity is given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the “deep-water” regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a “Large Ice-Belt Instability” and “Small Ice-Belt Instability” at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Investigations of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Ocean and Ice Conditions in and Near the Marginal Ice Zone. The “Marginal Ice Zone Observations and Processes Experiment” (MIZOPEX) Final Campaign Summary

Despite the significance of the marginal ice zones of the Arctic Ocean, basic parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST) and a range of sea-ice characteristics are still insufficiently understood in these areas, and especially so during the summer melt period. The field campaigns summarized here, identified collectively as the “Marginal Ice Zone Ocean and Ice Observations and Processes Experiment” (MIZOPEX), were funded by U.S. National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) with the intent of helping to address these information gaps through a targeted, intensive observation field campaign that tested and exploited unique capabilities of multiple classes of unmanned aerial systems (UASs). MIZOPEX was conceived and carried out in response to NASA’s request for research efforts that would address a key area of science while also helping to advance the application of UASs in a manner useful to NASA for assessing the relative merits of different UASs. To further exercise the potential of unmanned systems and to expand the science value of the effort, the field campaign added further challenges such as air deployment of miniaturized buoys and coordinating missions involving multiple aircraft. Specific research areas that MIZOPEX data were designed to address include relationships between ocean skin temperatures and subsurface temperatures and how these evolve over time in an Arctic environment during summer; variability in sea-ice conditions such as thickness, age, and albedo within the marginal ice zone (MIZ); interactions of SST, salinity, and ice conditions during the melt cycle; and validation of satellite-derived SST and ice concentration fields provided by satellite imagery and models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS). Part I: Extracting Dimensional Properties of Ice–Ice Aggregates for Microphysical Parameterization

Aggregation, the process by which two or more ice particles attach to each other, is typically observed in clouds that span a range of temperatures and is influenced by the crystal shape (habit). In this study, the resulting characteristics of ice–ice two-monomer aggregation is investigated, which is expected to improve microphysical parameterizations through more precise aggregate characteristics and in turn better predict the rate of aggregation and snow development. A systematic way to determine the aspect ratio of the aggregate was developed, which takes into account the expected falling orientations, overlap of each monomer, and any contact angle that may form through so-called constrained randomization. Distributions were used to obtain the most frequent aspect ratio, major axis, and minor axis of aggregated particles with respect to the monomer aspect ratio. Simulations were completed using the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator (IPAS), a model that uses predefined three-dimensional geometries, (e.g., hexagonal prisms) to simulate ice crystal aggregation and allows for variation in crystal size, shape, number, and falling orientation. In this study, after collection in a theoretical grid space, detailed information is extracted from the particles to determine the properties of aggregates. It was found that almost all monomer aspect ratios aggregate to less extreme aggregate aspect ratios at nearly the same rate. Newly formed aggregate properties are amenable to implementation into more sophisticated bulk microphysical models designed to predict and evolve particle properties, which is crucial in realistically evolving cloud ice mass distribution and for representing the collection process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation and ice nucleation in convective systems: A comparative analysis between in situ aircraft observations and WRF simulations: Ice Supersaturation in Convective System

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double-moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤-40°C. All four schemes capture both clear-sky and in-cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear-sky (in-cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds (>1 m s -1 ) than those at the lower updraft speeds when ice water content (IWC) > 0.01 g m -3 , while observations show smaller differences up to ~1–2 orders of magnitude. The simulated ISS also occurs less frequently at weaker updrafts and downdrafts than observed. These results indicate that the simulations have a greater dependence on stronger updrafts to maintain/generate ISS at higher IWC. At lower IWC (≤0.01 g m -3 ), simulations unexpectedly show lower ISS frequencies at stronger updrafts. Overall, the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme has the closest magnitudes and frequencies of ISS >20% to the observations, and the modified Morrison has the closest correlations between ISS frequencies and vertical velocity at higher IWC and number density. The Cooper parameterization often generates excessive ice crystals and therefore suppresses the frequency and magnitude of ISS, indicating that it should be initiated at higher ISS (e.g., ≥25%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Regime dependence of ice cloud heterogeneity – a convective life‐cycle effect?

Cloud condensate varies on scales smaller than those typically resolved by global weather and climate models. In order to accurately predict the radiative and microphysical process rates representative of the entire model grid box, the effect of the subgrid‐scale heterogeneity of cloud must be taken into account. In this study, observed ice water content retrieved from A‐Train satellite observations is used to explore how spatial ice condensate variability, characterized by the fractional standard deviation (FSD, the standard deviation divided by the mean), varies with cloud regime. FSD is generally lower for overcast cloud scenes, but an additional predictor based on convective activity is needed to capture the high FSD associated with more turbulent clouds and reproduce the observed latitudinal and height variations of FSD. Convective clouds that extend only a few kilometres above the freezing level are likely to be smaller at an earlier stage in their life cycle, and actively growing with a higher FSD. In contrast, more mature clouds reaching the tropopause are larger and generally have a lower variability and smaller FSD. To capture this life‐cycle effect, a new parametrization is tested which uses the ratio of a model's convectively detrained condensate to the existing cloud condensate mass as a proxy for the cloud's convective life stage to highlight areas with enhanced condensate variability. The parametrization is scale‐adaptive, situation‐dependent and captures seasonally varying global patterns and the zonal mean vertical structure of observed ice condensate variability well. Ground‐based observations obtained from five Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites provide independent confirmation that the parametrization satisfactorily captures condensate variability in high‐altitude ice clouds.

Ahlgrimm, Maike↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ice-VII inclusions in diamonds: Evidence for aqueous fluid in Earth’s deep mantle

Water-rich regions in Earth’s deeper mantle are suspected to play a key role in the global water budget and the mobility of heat-generating elements. Here, we show that ice-VII occurs as inclusions in natural diamond and serves as an indicator for such water-rich regions. Ice-VII, the residue of aqueous fluid present during growth of diamond, crystallizes upon ascent of the host diamonds but remains at pressures as high as 24 gigapascals; it is now recognized as a mineral by the International Mineralogical Association. In particular, ice-VII in diamonds points toward fluid-rich locations in the upper transition zone and around the 660-kilometer boundary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗