Geoeffectiveness and interplanetary features of slow CMEs
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Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) During 1996 - 2005
We present the results of an investigation of the sequence of events from the Sun to the Earth that ultimately led to the 88 major geomagnetic storms (defined by minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) that occurred during 1996 - 2005. The results are achieved through cooperative efforts that originated at the Living with a Star (LWS) Coordinated Data- Analysis Workshop (CDAW) held at George Mason University in March 2005. Based on careful examination of the complete array of solar and in-situ solar wind observations, we have identified and characterized, for each major geomagnetic storm, the overall solar-interplanetary (solar-IP) source type, the time, velocity and angular width of the source coronal mass ejection (CME), the type and heliographic location of the solar source region, the structure of the transient solar wind flow with the storm-driving component specified, the arrival time of shock/disturbance, and the start and ending times of the corresponding IP CME (ICME). The storm-driving component, which possesses a prolonged and enhanced southward magnetic field (B(sub s)) may be an ICME, the sheath of shocked plasma (SH) upstream of an ICME, a corotating interaction region (CIR), or a combination of these structures. We classify the Solar-IP sources into three broad types: (1) S-type, in which the storm is associated with a single ICME and a single CME at the Sun; (2) M-type, in which the storm is associated with a complex solar wind flow produced by multiple interacting ICMEs arising from multiple halo CMEs launched from the Sun in a short period; (3) C-type, in which the storm is associated with a CIR formed at the leading edge of a high speed stream originating from a solar coronal hole (CH). For the 88 major storms, the S-type, M-type and C-type events number 53 (60%): 24 (27%) and 11 (13%), respectively. For the 85 events for which the surface source regions could be investigated, 54 (63%) of the storms originated in solar active regions, 10 (12%) in quiet Sun regions associated with quiescent filaments or filament channels, and 11 (13%) were associated with coronal holes. Remarkably, 10 (12%) CME-driven events showed no sign of eruptive features on the surface (e.g., no flare, no coronal dimming, and no loop arcade, etc), even though all the available solar observation in a suitable time period were carefully examined. Thus, while it is generally true that a major geomagnetic storm is more likely to be driven by a front-side fast halo CME associated with a major flare, our study indicates a broad distribution of source properties. The implications of the results for space weather forecasting are briefly discussed.
Zhang, J.↗
Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT)
The Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT) mission will aim at making major discoveries on the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of heliospheric structures that drive space weather. The focus will be on Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) that originate from massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic flux from the solar corona. They cause the largest geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle events, threatening to endanger life and disrupt technology on Earth and in space. A big current problem, both regarding fundamental solar-terrestrial physics and space weather, is that we do not yet understand spatial characteristics and temporal evolution of ICMEs and that the existing remote-sensing and in-situ observatories are not suited for resolving multi-layered and evolutionary structures in these massive storm drivers. Here, we propose a groundbreaking mission concept study using solar sail technology that, for the first time, will make continuous, in-situ multi-point observations along the Sun-Earth line beyond the Lagrange point L1 (sub-L1). This unique position, in combination with L1 assets, will allow distinguishing between local and global processes, spatial characteristics, temporal evolution, and particle energization mechanisms related to ICMEs. In addition, measurements of the magnetic field in earthbound ICMEs and their sub-structures from the SWIFT location will double the current forecasting lead-times from L1. This concept also paves the way for missions with increasingly longer forecasting lead-times, addressing NASA and NOAA’s space weather goals, as set forth by the Decadal Survey. The objective of this communication is to inform the community of the ongoing effort, including plans to further develop the mission concept, supported by the Heliophysics Flight Opportunities Studies (HFOS) program under NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES).
M. Akhavan-Tafti↗
Solar Cycle Variation and Multipoint Studies of ICME Properties
The goal of the Living With a Star program is to understand the Sun-Earth connection sufficiently well that we can solve problems critical to life and society. This can most effectively be done in the short term using observations from our past and on-going programs. Not only can this approach solve some of the pressing issues but also it can provide ideas for the deployment of future spacecraft in the LWS program. The proposed effort uses data from NEAR, SOHO, Wind, ACE and Pioneer Venus in quadrature, multipoint, and solar cycle studies to study the interplanetary coronal mass ejection and its role in the magnetic flux cycle of the Sun. ICMEs are most important to the LWS objectives because the solar wind conditions associated with these structures are the most geoeffective of any solar wind phenomena. Their ability to produce strong geomagnetic disturbances arises first because of their high speed. This high speed overtakes the ambient solar wind producing a bow shock wave similar to the terrestrial bow shock. In the new techniques we develop as part of this effort we exploit this feature of ICMEs. This shocked plasma has a greater velocity, higher density and stronger magnetic field than the ambient solar wind, conditions that can enhance geomagnetic activity. The driving ICME is a large magnetic structure expanding outward in the solar wind [Gosling, 19961. The ICMEs magnetic field is generally much higher than that in the ambient solar wind and the velocity is high. The twisted nature of the magnetic field in an ICME almost ensures that sometime during the ICME conditions favorable for geomagnetic storm initiation will occur.
Russell, C. T.↗
Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting
We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor
Richardson, I. G.↗
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1996 - 2007
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections, the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections at the Sun, are the major drivers of interplanetary shocks in the heliosphere, and are associated with modulations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity, both short term (Forbush decreases caused by the passage of the shock, post-shock sheath, and ICME), and possibly with longer term modulation. Using several in-situ signatures of ICMEs, including plasma temperature, and composition, magnetic fields, and cosmic ray modulations, made by near-Earth spacecraft, we have compiled a "comprehensive" list of ICMEs passing the Earth since 1996, encompassing solar cycle 23. We summarize the properties of these ICMEs, such as their occurrence rate, speeds and other parameters, the fraction of ICMEs that are classic magnetic clouds, and their association with solar energetic particle events, halo CMEs, interplanetary shocks, geomagnetic storms, shocks and cosmic ray decreases.
Richardson, I. G.↗
Major Geomagnetic Storms (Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) Generated by Corotating Interaction Regions
Seventy-nine major geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst less than or equal to -100 nT) observed in 1996 to 2004 were the focus of a Living with a Star Coordinated Data-Analysis Workshop (CDAW) in March, 2005. In 9 cases, the storm driver appears to have been purely a corotating interaction region (CIR) without any contribution from coronal mass ejection-related material (interplanetary coronal mass ejections, ICMEs). These storms were generated by structures within CIRs located both before and/or after the stream interface that included persistently southward magnetic fields for intervals of several hours. We compare their geomagnetic effects with those of 159 CIRs observed during 1996 - 2005. The major storms form the extreme tail of a continuous distribution of CIR geoeffectiveness which peaks at Dst approx. -40 nT but is subject to a prominent seasonal variation of - 40 nT which is ordered by the spring and fall equinoxes and the solar wind magnetic field direction towards or away from the Sun. The O'Brien and McPherron [2000] equations, which estimate Dst by integrating the incident solar wind electric field and incorporating a ring current loss term, largely account for the variation in storm size. They tend to underestimate the size of the larger CIR-associated storms by Dst approx. 20 nT. This suggests that injection into the ring current may be more efficient than expected in such storms. Four of the nine major storms in 1996 - 2004 occurred during a period of less than three solar rotations in September - November, 2002, also the time of maximum mean IMF and solar magnetic field intensity during the current solar cycle. The maximum CIR-storm strength found in our sample of events, plus additional 23 probable CIR-associated Dst less than or equal to -100 nT storms in 1972 - 1995, is (Dst = -161 nT). This is consistent with the maximum storm strength (Dst approx. -180 nT) expected from the O'Brien and McPherron equations for the typical range of solar wind electric fields associated with CIRs. This suggests that CIRs alone are unlikely to generate geomagnetic storms that exceed these levels.
Richardson, I. G.↗
The Effects of Neutral Inertia on Ionospheric Currents in the High-Latitude Thermosphere Following a Geomagnetic Storm
Results of an experimental and theoretical investigation into the effects of the time dependent neutral wind flywheel on high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics are presented. The results extend our previous work which used the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere/Ionosphere General Circulation Model (NCAR TIGCM) to theoretically simulate flywheel effects in the aftermath of a geomagnetic storm. The previous results indicated that the neutral circulation, set up by ion-neutral momentum coupling in the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, is maintained for several hours after the main phase has ended and may dominate height-integrated Hall currents and field-aligned currents for up to 4-5 hours. We extend the work of Deng et al. to include comparisons between the calculated time-dependent ionospheric Hall current system in the storm-time recovery period and that measured by instruments on board the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite. Also, comparisons are made between calculated field-aligned currents and those derived from DE 2 magnetometer measurements. These calculations also allow us to calculate the power transfer rate (sometimes called the Poynting flux) between the magnetosphere and ionosphere. The following conclusions have been drawn: (1) Neutral winds can contribute significantly to the horizontal ionospheric current system in the period immediately following the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, especially over the magnetic polar cap and in regions of ion drift shear. (2) Neutral winds drive Hall currents that flow in the opposite direction to those driven by ion drifts. (3) The overall morphology of the calculated field-aligned current system agrees with previously published observations for the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub Z) southward conditions, although the region I and region 2 currents are smeared by the TI(ICM model grid resolution. (4) Neutral winds can make significant contributions to the field-aligned current system when B(sub Z) northward conditions prevail following the main phase of a storm, but can account for only a fraction of the observed currents. (5) DE 2 measurements provide a demonstration of "local" (satellite-altitude) flywheel effects. (6) On the assumption that the magnetosphere acts as an insulator, we calculate neutral-wind-induced polarization electric fields of approx. 20-30 kV in the period immediately following the geomagnetic storm.
Deng, W.↗
Coronal Mass Ejection-driven Shocks and the Associated Sudden Commencements-sudden Impulses
Interplanetary (IP) shocks are mainly responsible for the sudden compression of the magnetosphere, causing storm sudden commencement (SC) and sudden impulses (SIs) which are detected by ground-based magnetometers. On the basis of the list of 222 IP shocks compiled by Gopalswamy et al., we have investigated the dependence of SC/SIs amplitudes on the speed of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive the shocks near the Sun as well as in the interplanetary medium. We find that about 91% of the IP shocks were associated with SC/SIs. The average speed of the SC/SI-associated CMEs is 1015 km/s, which is almost a factor of 2 higher than the general CME speed. When the shocks were grouped according to their ability to produce type II radio burst in the interplanetary medium, we find that the radio-loud (RL) shocks produce a much larger SC/SI amplitude (average approx. 32 nT) compared to the radio-quiet (RQ) shocks (average approx. 19 nT). Clearly, RL shocks are more effective in producing SC/SIs than the RQ shocks. We also divided the IP shocks according to the type of IP counterpart of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs): magnetic clouds (MCs) and nonmagnetic clouds. We find that the MC-associated shock speeds are better correlated with SC/SI amplitudes than those associated with non-MC ejecta. The SC/SI amplitudes are also higher for MCs than ejecta. Our results show that RL and RQ type of shocks are important parameters in producing the SC/SI amplitude.
Coronal mass ejections↗