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Primer on the Cost of Marine Fuels Compliant with IMO 2020 Rule

This report aims to provide information for owners and operators of U.S. ocean-going marine cargo vessels on the cost of different approaches to compliance with the IMO mandate to reduce the sulfur content of marine fuels (outside emission control areas) to no more than 0.5%. The IMO 2020 rule came into effect on January 1, 2020. The report discusses a suite of options for compliance including low-sulfur petroleum-based fuels and alternative fuels. Since fuel prices are a primary factor in determining the cost of the various alternatives, the document also includes a discussion of the main drivers of marine fuel prices. The cost analysis compares the average annual costs (capital and fuel) out to 2050 of each compliance approach under alternative scenarios regarding fuel prices, policy, and technology innovation. The cost calculations focus on representative U.S. fleet vessels for containership and tanker types. Even though the analysis focuses on average cost of approaches to comply with IMO 2020, the comparison of approaches also acknowledges other benefits or risks including fuel price risk and the contribution of the approach to achieving other potential environmental performance objectives or regulations.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Guide to Fuel, Lubricant, and Engine Concerns Relative to the IMO 2020 Fuel Oil Sulfur Reduction Mandate

The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) is an agency within the US Department of Transportation tasked with promoting waterborne transportation, including port and vessel operations and environmental safety. MARAD also provides crucial information in the form of primers and reports to ship owners and operators. These publications focus on the potential impacts of upcoming regulatory or other changes to marine vessel operation. Under the guidance of MARAD, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been tasked to develop a primer that can be shared with vessel owners and operators with emphasis on the impacts of the 2020 sulfur regulations on engines, fuels, lubricants, and all related systems. The impacts of past and future fuel-related regulations and other information pertinent to the short-term future of shipping are also included.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Development of the Well-to-Wake Life Cycle Assessment Model for Marine Fuels in R&D GREET 2025

The Marine analysis capabilities in the 2025 Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) have been updated to incorporate the latest findings from the Fourth International Maritime Organization (IMO) GHG Study.1 To support these updates and enhance user flexibility, the former single marine module used in previous R&D GREET versions has been split into two workbook tabs: The Marine_Fuel tab, which covers the fuel-cycle, and the Marine_Trip tab, which covers the trip-cycle. In the Marine_Fuel tab, fuel cycle results for 39 marine fuels are available—assuming a slow speed diesel engine—and can be seen in Appendix A. However, there are options for changing feedstocks for multiple fuels, ability to view results with or without pilot fuels for fuels such as methanol and ammonia, and carbon capture options. All these combinations make the number of total possible pathways over one hundred. For each pathway, life cycle emission results are divided into feedstock, conversion, and combustion categories, along with pilot fuel supply chain emissions for fuels used in dual fuel engines. In the newly created Marine_Trip tab, users can view the life cycle emissions of using these fuels from a trip perspective. Compared to R&D GREET 2024, 16 new types of vessels are added in R&D GREET 2025. Examples of results assuming the default size for each vessel type are available in Appendix A. Additional information categories on vessels are included such as vessel size, main propulsion type, engine power rating, combustion cycle, etc. based on the Fourth IMO GHG Study. Operational mode of the trip, fuel consumption, and load calculation were updated based on the report. The fuel consumption calculation also incorporates low-load adjustment, speed–power correction, weather correction, and fouling correction factors. Furthermore, fuel consumption in boilers or steam turbines is also added for the first time, besides fuel use in main propulsion engines and auxiliary engines. This effort makes the R&D GREET Marine capabilities more robust than before. Users will be able to estimate fuel consumption more accurately for more diverse choices of vessel categories, vessel sizes, and energy converters.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Comparison of a Full-Scale and a 1:10 Scale Low-Speed Two-Stroke Marine Engine Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

International marine shipping is a growing component of international trade; a vast majority of all the world’s goods are being transported on large ocean-going vessels. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced the Energy Efficiency Design Index in 2013, a regulatory framework of associated metrics for reducing emissions of CO 2 per tonne-mile from shipping by approximately 10% each decade. Therefore, decarbonizing the maritime sector requires the development of new fuel sources. Because of the extremely large physical size of the internal combustion engines present in shipping vessels, experimental iterative development of the engine and fuel system is cost-prohibitive. Thus, the ability to perform combustion system development in a scaled platform that can be more easily operated and modeled computationally is of interest. To that end, scaling relationships are needed to translate the results from a smaller engine to a larger counterpart. Scaling studies to date have been restricted to low scaling ratios, four-stroke light-duty engines, and under-resolved computational fluid dynamic simulations that likely do not accurately capture the physics of scaling. In this work, computational models of a 1:10 scale and a full-scale two-stroke crosshead low-speed marine engine were created and validated against experiments obtained in a real 1:10 scale engine installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Further, due to the large size of the full-scale engine, the model required large high-performance computing resources to be evaluated. The availability of high-performance computing resources at the Department of Energy’s Leadership Computing Facilities is an enabler of the current work. The results of the small- and large-scale engine simulations were compared to analyze the effectiveness of the appropriate scaling laws under these extreme scaling ratio conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Floating Chameleon: Floating Nuclear Power Plants and the Nexus of Maritime and Nuclear Security Law

During the 63rd regular session of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference, as part of Norway's statement to the General Conference, Mr. Auden Halvorsen, State Secretary for Norway, made the following statement about transportable nuclear power plants (TNPPs): "Deployment of transportable nuclear power plants—TNPPs—demands our attention. The Agency must intensify its conversations of all aspects of the safety and security of such facilities. . . . The scope and applicability of existing requirements and instruments need to be clarified and developed including dialogue with the International Maritime Organization [IMO]." Ensuring the security of TNPPs is essential for their deployment and implementation. TNPPs may be floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs), which bring together elements of nuclear security related to the nuclear power plant with elements of maritime security. Insofar as an FNPP weds the principles of nuclear and maritime security, it also weds the two domains, the ancient traditions and contemporary practices of maritime law with the contemporary practices of nuclear law. Fundamentally, this raises the question, what are the legal requirements for the security of a FNPP? Although both maritime law and nuclear law have established regimes for security through various legal instruments, does an FNPP expose gaps between the current international legal instruments? The previous question of whether international legal regimes define requirements for the security of FNPPs, but a threshold question remains: what is an FNPP? For purposes of nuclear and maritime security, is an FNPP a facility, is an FNPP a vessel and therefore a transport, or does an FNPP change its status based upon temporal and spatial considerations such as when it is docked at a port generating power or in transit to its destination? This set of questions, and others addressed later in this article, highlights that the issue is not merely a question about security but intersects elements of safety whether an FNPP is in uncharted waters of the international regime for both nuclear and maritime law. Here, this paper addresses many of the questions posed above related to the security regulations for an FNPP.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Sustainable Biofuels for Low-Carbon Maritime Transportation

The marine shipping sector heavily depends on fossil fuels and is one of the largest petroleum fuel consumers [1,2]. The annual global marine fuel consumption was estimated to be around 400 million metric tons in 2019 (2.5 billion barrels). Moreover, ocean shipping is one of the most significant contributors to sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter emissions. Global shipping contributes 13% of human-caused sulfur emissions and 2.6% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. As a major source of pollutant emissions, the marine industry faces several challenges related to emission regulations. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has established a framework for reducing the carbon intensity of shipping: 40% reduction relative to 2008 levels by 2030 and 70% reduction by 2050. As the aviation sector, the maritime shipping sector is difficult to decarbonize through electrification. Biofuels offer the best opportunities for decarbonizing marine shipping in the near and medium-term. Advanced biofuels such as pyrolysis bio-oil offer the low-cost potential for meeting carbon reduction goals. For instance, the pyrolysis bio-oil exhibited promising marginal CO2 abatement costs at less than $100/tonne CO2-equivalent at a heavy fuel oil price greater than $1.10/gal [1]. As a potential biofuel option for low-carbon maritime shipping, this presentation focuses on a comparative techno-economic analysis (TEA) of bio-oils produced via a fast pyrolysis-based conversion pathway. The pathway converts a 50/50 blend of forest residues and clean pine to bio-oil via three process options: fast pyrolysis without vapor upgrading, and fast pyrolysis with vapor phase upgrading over ZSM-5 zeolite catalyst and Pt/TiO2 catalyst. The process configuration and operation variation led to different capital and operating costs, as well as the resulting raw bio-oil’s yield and quality, e.g., the water content, total acid number, and carboxylic acid number. The study also determined the minimum upgrading of bio-oils required to enable blending with very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), with the associated costs reflected in TEA. This study shows that bio-oil could be a cost-effective fuel option for decarbonizing maritime shipping. Further research is required with respect to biofuel blending properties, such as compatibility with existing fuel system infrastructure and suitable engine performance.

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Experimental Investigation of Air-Fuel Equivalence Ratio Effects on Advanced Dual-fuel Diesel/Ammonia Combustion on a Single-Cylinder Medium-Duty Diesel Engine at High Load

Ammonia (NH3) has gathered a lot of interest as a low-lifecycle-carbon fuel in sectors with high weight and distance requirements, such as shipping. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandates a 70-80% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction by 2040, which is only possible with advanced engine technologies and fuels like NH3. Prior research studies at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have shown strong performance with NH3 under dual-fuel mode using conventional diesel combustion (CDC) manifold air pressure (MAP) settings. Diesel airflow was initially used to simplify retrofitting (no turbocharger modification), which resulted in air-fuel equivalence ratios (λ) greater than 1.5. To characterize potential improvements in dual-fuel NH3 combustion performance at richer in-cylinder conditions, a global λ sweep using a diesel pilot ignition (DPI) strategy with diesel fuel injected near top-dead center (TDC) and a reactivity-controlled compression ignition (RCCI) injection strategy with diesel fuel injected earlier during the compression stroke were compared. The experiments were conducted at 1200 RPM and 12.6 bar (75% load), and λ was varied by decreasing the commanded air flow to the engine at greater than 90% ammonia energy substitution (AES) level. A diesel injection timing sweep was conducted for both the combustion modes at fixed λ, and the timing with the lowest engine-out N2O emissions was identified. The results indicated an optimal balance between CO2, eq and thermal efficiency benefits for both DPI and RCCI injection strategy cases compared to CDC at a λ of 1.4. The indicated N-based emissions exhibited a strong correlation to the ratio of CA5–50 and ignition delay for DPI, but no apparent trend emerged for the RCCI injection strategy at the tested boundary conditions.

Tyrewala, Daanish [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000208599324)↗

Organic Electrochemical Transistor Channel Materials: Copolymerization Versus Physical Mixing of Glycolated and Alkoxylated Polymers

Organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs) feature a polymer channel capable of conducting both ions and electronic charges. The choice of the channel material is critical for OECT performance. Many efforts have focused on improving performance via the chemical tunability of conjugated polymers – through backbone, side chain, and molar mass engineering – leading to useful design principles for accumulation-mode OECT materials. However, tuning the chemical structure of conjugated polymers often requires time-consuming optimization of the synthesis route. Meanwhile, variations in molar mass, dispersity, structural defects, and metal content present challenges when attempting to analyze the detailed effects of structural modifications, as multiple performance-determining factors are often (unintentionally) changed at the same time. Therefore, this study explores blended channel materials obtained by physically mixing glycolated and alkoxylated polymers in different ratios, and compares their OECT performance with the corresponding statistical copolymers. It is shown that mixing two well-performing materials creates blends that enable rational tuning of the transistor properties without compromising on performance. Thus, channels based on blends of alkoxylated and glycolated polymers hold promise for OECT technology with tailored response, as only two materials are needed to achieve any desired side chain ratio, simplifying the optimization of OECT characteristics.

copolymerization↗