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At least 19 records

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Numerical Simulation of Reservoir Response to Depressurization

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Boswell, Ray↗

Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India

Mixed-phase and ice clouds play a significant role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and modeling studies suggest that inaccurate representation of ice nucleating particles (INP) is one of the factors, which have resulted in a deficiency in the prediction of cloud properties and hydrological cycle. We do not understand the ice nucleation mechanisms to represent the ice formation in the model, and therefore more INP measurements at various supercooled temperatures are needed. This study reports for the first time real-time INP concentration at a high altitude station in the Western Ghats region of India, and these results will be used to constrain the ice nucleation parameterizations in the model. The variation of INP for any particular cloud condition can have strong microphysical responses of mixed-phase precipitation formation processes. Also, to improve the representation of heterogeneous ice nucleation, INP measurements of various types of aerosols commonly observed over the Indian region are needed. This study presents, the INP concentrations and daily concentration of non-refractory chemical composition (organics, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and aerosol size distribution. Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) was operated to measure INP concentration at the mountain site from August to December 2018. INP measurements were performed at three different temperatures (-25, -30, and - 34 °C) in the immersion freezing mode relevant for mixed-phase cloud conditions. The average INP concentrations approximately varied from 0.18 to 12.4 L-1, 0.39 to 24 L-1, 1.1 to 40.2 L-1 at -25, -30, and - 34 °C, respectively. These concentrations are within the concentrations reported in the literature from different regions across the globe. The air mass back trajectory analysis showed that continental air mass contains more INP compared to maritime air mass. The information on INP concentration and chemical characteristics of aerosol will help to improve heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.

Kumar, Anil V.↗

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Collett, Tim↗

Cross-Border Electricity Trade between India and Sri Lanka: Impact on Power System Operations

Recent developments in South Asia have the potential to increase the incentives for cross-border energy trade (CBET) between India and Sri Lanka. India's surplus power, including from its rapid expansion of wind and solar generation, provides an incentive for it to increase investment returns through exports. Sri Lanka is considering options to increase its power supply, and CBET could alleviate the need for investments in new thermal generation capacity, while giving it access to India's large and diverse power system. Finally, CBET can facilitate renewable energy (RE) integration by allowing the two countries to more efficiently harness balancing resources and smooth out wind and solar variability over larger geographic areas. This study builds on several prior analyses of a potential high-voltage direct current transmission link between India and Sri Lanka. Uniquely, the study makes use of a detailed one-year, 30-minute resolution unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model of both countries to examine the technical and economic impacts of CBET between India and Sri Lanka in the year 2025. The study finds that CBET, enabled by a 500-MW high voltage direct current transmission link, could generate annual production cost savings of USD 180 million and improve power system operations. Through better utilization of the most efficient generators, generation from relatively expensive natural gas plants in Sri Lanka is displaced by lower cost imports from India. In addition, increased flexibility through exports reduces RE curtailment in India's Southern region by 400 GWh annually. While the study captures many previously unconsidered intertemporal operational constraints, it does not provide a complete characterization of system operations with a high-voltage direct current interconnection. Additional work should include a dynamic analysis of system stability following interruptions to the direct current interconnection, an AC power flow analysis and consideration of any non-technical barriers to trade which might prevent the optimization of CBET between India and Sri Lanka at 30-minute timescales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The historic biogeography of India: isolation or contact?

Geophysical maps depicting continental movement have consistently shown India, as it moved northward, to be located far out in the Tethys Sea. India split off from the African east coast about 148 m.y.a. From that time onward, according to almost all geophysical accounts, India was isolated from all of other continents until the early Miocene when it made contact with Eurasia. But the biological data, both fossil and Recent, indicate that this concept cannot be correct. If India had really existed as an isolated, oceanic continent for about 100 m.y., it should have developed a peculiar biota with many endemic genera and families in its terrestrial and shallow marine habitats. But there are virtually no remains of organisms indicating that India was isolated for any substantial time (millions of years). Instead, we find that almost all Indian taxa were possessed in common with other continents. As time went on, the northern relationships became stronger and the southern ones weaker. Most of the recent geophysical accounts show India not making contact with Eurasia until the early Miocene, but fossil materials show that this event must have taken place by the early Eocene. It has been postulated that, as India moved northward, it created a biogeographic barrier that separated marine fish populations and resulted in the east-west provinces that are now apparent in the Indian Ocean. At the same time, the barrier effect was supposed to have resulted in the formation of sister species that are now located far apart. Information currently available indicates that most living, tropical marine species are probably not over 3 m.y. old. Consequently, the northward movement of India, which took place primarily between 148 and 50 m.y.a., could have no bearing on the relationships of modern species.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India

As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (–87.7 in China and – 130.2 kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO 2 ) per household in India) and appliances (~ –169.7 in China and ~ –43.4 kgCO 2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 M-tons of CO 2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO 2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO 2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 1 age.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.

Climate-change impacts↗

India 2030 Wind and Solar Integration Study (Interim Report)

India has established several targets for renewable energy capacity growth in the coming years, most notably the target of deploying 175 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity from wind, solar, biomass, and small hydropower by 2022, and furthering that vision with India's Nationally Determined Contribution target of 40% renewable electricity capacity (including hydro) by 2030 (GOI 2015). Given the rapid and significant changes to India's power system to help meet these targets, the objective of this interim report is to understand the operational challenges for India's power grid in 2030. The primary contribution of this report is to establish a 2030 unit commitment and dispatch model of India's grid, with hourly temporal resolution, high spatial resolution of renewable energy resources, interstate transmission constraints, and unit-level generator characteristics. Annual simulations of 2030 operations demonstrate that a 22% annual penetration of wind and solar is manageable by India's grid. Most days in the year do not show signs of stress, and 99.97% of energy is served with the plans as presented. Average coal plant load factors are 70% for the year, up from relatively low plant load factors in recent years (Patel 2018). However, the results highlight specific challenges the grid may face during a small number of high-demand periods, resulting in unserved energy. The drivers behind the unserved energy suggest that this could be avoided with better coordination in scheduling. This report is part of a broader set of analyses under the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), which includes collaborations with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Climate Policy Initiative (CPI), and a broad stakeholder community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nuclear Security Governance in India: Institutions, Instruments, and Culture (2019)

There is an emerging consciousness in India of the importance of nuclear security and safety. Motivated by a combination of rapid growth in its civil nuclear sector, heightened scrutiny of recent nuclear accidents around the world, and the deteriorating regional security environment, India has pushed to adopt measures to strengthen and enhance its nuclear security and safety governance structures. India recognizes that the various recent global nuclear security initiatives are in its own best interest and has been an enthusiastic participant in the Nuclear Security Summit process. Today, India demonstrates a greater willingness to showcase its nuclear security arrangements before the public and has undertaken many institutional, legal, and operational reforms to maintain international regime compliance. This study takes a comprehensive look at India's approach to nuclear security and critically examines the physical security measures the country has put in place. Particular focus is placed on the evolution and strengths, as well as weaknesses, of the country's nuclear security institutions, instruments, practices, and culture. Given that the strengthening of India's nuclear security governance is an ongoing endeavor, the paper also puts forward a number of policy recommendations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

India Is Overtaking China as the World's Largest Emitter of Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide

Severe haze is a major public health concern in China and India. Both countries rely heavily on coal for energy, and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted from coal-fired power plants and industry is a major pollutant contributing to their air quality problems. Timely, accurate information on SO2 sources is a required input to air quality models for pollution prediction and mitigation. However, such information has been difficult to obtain for these two countries, as fast-paced changes in economy and environmental regulations have often led to unforeseen emission changes. Here we use satellite observations to show that China and India are on opposite trajectories for sulfurous pollution. Since 2007, emissions in China have declined by 75 percent while those in India have increased by 50 percent. With these changes, India is now surpassing China as the world's largest emitter of anthropogenic SO2. This finding, not predicted by emission scenarios, suggests effective SO2 control in China and lack thereof in India. Despite this, haze remains severe in China, indicating the importance of reducing emissions of other pollutants. In India, approximately 33 million people now live in areas with substantial SO2 pollution. Continued growth in emissions will adversely affect more people and further exacerbate morbidity and mortality.

air pollution↗

Biomass to bio-energy supply chain: Economic viability, case studies, challenges and policy implications in India

Biomass supply chain (BSC) management is an integral part of renewable energy projects, which include biomass-harvesting, collection, storage, processing and transportation to the bio-energy plants. The sustainability concept identifies economy, environment, and society as the three principal pillars of bioenergy. With an effective BSC implemented, all three dimensions of sustainability can be attained. Although, there’s been extensive research on the environmental sustainability of BSC, the economic aspects are under-represented in existing literature. So, an elaborate analysis on the economic viability of BSCs developed worldwide and those in India is critical, and needs to be studied. This review conducts a detailed accounting of the economic aspects of a BSC which includes the existing challenges in designing an environmental-cum-economically efficient BSC and strategies to address the issues. The Indian context has been studied on the BSC models, highlighting their shortcomings, while encapsulating the essential insights from global BSC models for a cost-effective BSC-to-bioenergy in India. Here, this review also emphasizes the policies supporting the BSC in India and forecasts the future biomass demand and supply. This review will provide stakeholders with critical insights on BSC and related challenges and assist them to investigate and devise strategies for successful implementation of BSCs in India.

Biomass↗

Modeling India’s energy future using a bottom-up approach

India and China are the world's most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India's forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India's key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗

Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗