Multiple Pursuer-Based Intercept via Forward Stochastic Reachability.
Abstract not provided.
Vinod, Abraham↗
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Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario
Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.
Asteroid↗
Suborbital Asteroid Intercept and Fragmentation for Very Short Warning Time Scenarios
Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) 50150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. However, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt).We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a fictitious incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally, at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances.Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEOwould strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total V 9.511 kms) could intercept incoming NEOs over a day prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of NEO intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.
Planetary Defense↗
Neuromorphic Processing and Sensing for Interception
Interception of a moving and potentially evading target can be a challenging problem, in particular for conditions in which the target may be moving at high speeds and difficult to detect. We have proposed to merge two Sandia LDRD efforts, the SPARR Spiking/Processing Array (neuromorphic event-driven sensing) and the Dragonfly-Inspired Algorithms for Intercept- Trajectory Planning (neural-inspired algorithms for interception) toward a unified system with direct application to national security. Neuromorphic systems demonstrate the most potential for speed and efficiency gains when communication is event-driven and computations are simple but parallelizable. Accordingly, we anticipate fully realizing potential benefits from a neuromorphic interception system if event-driven sensing is combined with processing and acting also implemented on event-driven (spiking) systems. We have successfully translated a neural-inspired interception algorithm to a neural network architecture for evaluation on neuromorphic hardware. Preliminary implementations of the neural network designed for implementation on the Loihi chip are still too immature for conclusive evaluation, but the results of this effort have demonstrated a viable path for a previously developed dragonfly-inspired interception algorithm to be implemented on neuromorphic hardware.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A description of rainfall interception over large areas
A new scheme is developed for describing interception at spatial scales comparable to the typical resolution of climate models. The scheme is based on the Rutter model of interception and statistical description of the subgrid-scale spatial variability of canopy storage and rainfall. The interception loss simulated by the new scheme is significantly smaller than those simulated by other schemes that do not include considerations for spatial variability. The explanation of this result is partly in the enhancement of spatially averaged canopy drainage due to the large local drainage from the few buckets of large canopy storage. The relative reduction in interception loss simulated by the new scheme may explain the overestimation of interception loss by climate models that do not include the effects of spatial variability on interception processes.
Eltahir, E. A. B.↗
Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time
Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.
near- Earth object↗
Computation of optimal feedback strategies for interception in a horizontal plane
The problem of minimum-time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is studied. The target may fly a trajectory that is known at the start of the interception or try to evade the intercepting aircraft. The interceptor's optimal motion is described independently of the target in terms of an extremal trajectory map. The latter is used to develop guidelines for suboptimal approximations to the extremals. A method of constructing the feedback solution by drawing isochrones (constant minimum-time loci) is developed. Sections of the feedback solution for the interception of a straight-flying target are presented, and the construction of an isochrone for the interception of an actively evading target is demonstrated.
Rajan, N.↗
Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation in wheat canopies estimated by spectral reflectance
The interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS 7-5/7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 in Phoenix. Intercepted PAR was calculated from a model driven by leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relationships were found between greenness and normalized difference with a separate model representing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was a significantly better model and would be easier to apply than the empirically derived greenness parameter. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the model between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years, however, for the leaf senescence the models showed more variability due to the lack of data on measured interception in sparse canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception directly for crop growth models.
Hatfield, J. L.↗
Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation estimated by spectral reflectance
Interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS (7-5)/(7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 at Phoenix, Arizona. Intercepted PAR was calculated from leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relatinships were found with greeness and normalized difference with separate relatinships describing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was significantly better than greenness for all planting dates. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the relation between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years and planting dates. For the leaf senescence phase the relationships showed more variability due to the lack of data on light interception in sparse and senescing canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception throughout a growing season.
Hatfield, J. L.↗
An Efficient Ray-Tracing Method for Determining Terrain Intercepts in EDL Simulations
The calculation of a ray's intercept from an arbitrary point in space to a prescribed surface is a common task in computer simulations. The arbitrary point often represents an object that is moving according to the simulation, while the prescribed surface is fixed in a defined frame. For detailed simulations, this surface becomes complex, taking the form of real-world objects such as mountains, craters or valleys which require more advanced methods to accurately calculate a ray's intercept location. Incorporation of these complex surfaces has commonly been implemented in graphics systems that utilize highly optimized graphics processing units to analyze such features. This paper proposes a simplified method that does not require computationally intensive graphics solutions, but rather an optimized ray-tracing method for an assumed terrain dataset. This approach was developed for the Mars Science Laboratory mission which landed on the complex terrain of Gale Crater. First, this paper begins with a discussion of the simulation used to implement the model and the applicability of finding surface intercepts with respect to atmosphere modeling, altitude determination, radar modeling, and contact forces influencing vehicle dynamics. Next, the derivation and assumptions of the intercept finding method are presented. Key assumptions are noted making the routines specific to only certain types of surface data sets that are equidistantly spaced in longitude and latitude. The derivation of the method relies on ray-tracing, requiring discussion on the formulation of the ray with respect to the terrain datasets. Further discussion includes techniques for ray initialization in order to optimize the intercept search. Then, the model implementation for various new applications in the simulation are demonstrated. Finally, a validation of the accuracy is presented along with the corresponding data sets used in the validation. A performance summary of the method will be shown using the analysis from the Mars Science Laboratory's terminal descent sensing model. Alternate uses will also be shown for determining horizon maps and orbiter set times.
Shidner, Jeremy D.↗
Voxel carving–based 3D reconstruction of sorghum identifies genetic determinants of light interception efficiency
Changes in canopy architecture traits have been shown to contribute to yield increases. Optimizing both light interception and light interception efficiency of agricultural crop canopies will be essential to meeting the growing food needs. Canopy architecture is inherently three-dimensional (3D), but many approaches to measuring canopy architecture component traits treat the canopy as a two-dimensional (2D) structure to make large scale measurement, selective breeding, and gene identification logistically feasible. We develop a high throughput voxel carving strategy to reconstruct 3D representations of sorghum from a small number of RGB photos. Our approach builds on the voxel carving algorithm to allow for fully automatic reconstruction of hundreds of plants. It was employed to generate 3D reconstructions of individual plants within a sorghum association population at the late vegetative stage of development. Light interception parameters estimated from these reconstructions enabled the identification of known and previously unreported loci controlling light interception efficiency in sorghum. The approach is generalizable and scalable, and it enables 3D reconstructions from existing plant high throughput phenotyping datasets. We also propose a set of best practices to increase 3D reconstructions’ accuracy.
3D plant reconstruction↗
Biologically Inspired Interception on an Unmanned System
Borrowing from nature, neural-inspired interception algorithms were implemented onboard a vehicle. To maximize success, work was conducted in parallel within a simulated environment and on physical hardware. The intercept vehicle used only optical imaging to detect and track the target. A successful outcome is the proof-of-concept demonstration of a neural-inspired algorithm autonomously guiding a vehicle to intercept a moving target. This work tried to establish the key parameters for the intercept algorithm (sensors and vehicle) and expand the knowledge and capabilities of implementing neural-inspired algorithms in simulation and on hardware.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Calibrated intercepts for solar radiometers used in remote sensor calibration
Calibrated solar radiometer intercepts allow spectral optical depths to be determined for days with intermittently clear skies. This is of particular importance on satellite sensor calibration days that are cloudy except at the time of image acquisition. This paper describes the calibration of four solar radiometers using the Langley-Bouguer technique for data collected on days with a clear, stable atmosphere. Intercepts are determined with an uncertainty of less than six percent, corresponding to a maximum uncertainty of 0.06 in optical depth. The spread of voltage intercepts calculated in this process is carried through three methods of radiometric calibration of satellite sensors to yield an uncertainty in radiance at the top of the atmosphere of less than one percent associated with the uncertainty in solar radiometer intercepts for a range of ground reflectances.
Gellman, David I.↗
Challenges and Capabilities in Estimating Snow Mass Intercepted in Conifer Canopies With Tree Sway Monitoring
Snowpack accumulation in forested watersheds depends on the amount of snow intercepted in the canopy and its partitioning into sublimation, unloading, and melt. A lack of canopy snow measurements limits our ability to evaluate models that simulate canopy processes and predict snowpack. We tested whether monitoring changes in wind-induced tree sway is a viable technique for detecting snow interception and quantifying canopy snow water equivalent (SWE). Over a 6 year period in Colorado, we monitored hourly sway of two conifers, each instrumented with an accelerometer sampling at 12 Hz. We developed an approach to distinguish changes in sway frequency due to thermal effects on tree rigidity versus intercepted snow mass. Over 60% of days with canopy snow had a sway signal that could not be distinguished from thermal effects. However, larger changes in tree sway could not generally be attributed to thermal effects, and canopy snow was present 93%–95% of the time, as confirmed with classified PhenoCam imagery. Using sway tests, we converted changes in sway to canopy SWE, which were correlated with total snowstorm amounts from a nearby SNOTEL site (Spearman r = 0.72 to 0.80, p < 0.001). Greater canopy SWE was associated with storm temperatures between -7°C and 0°C and wind speeds less than 4 m s -1 . Lower canopy SWE prevailed in storms with lower temperatures and higher wind speeds. Monitoring tree sway is a viable approach for quantifying canopy SWE, but challenges remain in converting changes in sway to mass and distinguishing thermal and snow mass effects on tree sway.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dragonfly-Inspired Algorithms for Intercept Trajectory Planning
Dragonflies are known to be highly successful hunters (achieving 90-95% success rate in nature) that implement a guidance law like proportional navigation to intercept their prey. This project tested the hypothesis that dragonflies are able to implement proportional navigation using prey-image translation on their eyes. The model dragonfly presented here calculates changes in pitch and yaw to maintain the prey's image at a designated location (the fovea) on a two-dimensional screen (the model's eyes ). When the model also uses self-knowledge of its own maneuvers as an error signal to adjust the location of the fovea, its interception trajectory becomes equivalent to proportional navigation. I also show that this model can also be applied successfully (in a limited number of scenarios) against maneuvering prey. My results provide a proof-of-concept demonstration of the potential of using the dragonfly nervous system to design a robust interception algorithm for implementation on a man-made system.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Spectral estimates of solar radiation intercepted by corn canopies
Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat band radiometer throughout two growing seasons for corn (Zea mays L.) canopies differing in planting dates, populations, and soil types. Agronomic data collected included leaf area index (LAI), biomass, development stage, and final grain yields. The spectral variable, greenness, was associated with 78 percent of the variation in LAI over all treatments. Single observations of LAI or greenness have limited value in predicting corn yields. The proportions of solar radiation intercepted (SRI) by these canopies were estimated using either measured LAI or greenness. Both SRI estimates, when accumulated over the growing season, accounted for approximately 65 percent of the variation in yields. Models which simulated the daily effects of weather and intercepted solar radiation on growth had the highest correlations to grain yields. This concept of estimating intercepted solar radiation using spectral data represents a viable approach for merging spectral and meteorological data for crop yield models.
Bauer, M. E.↗
Barriers and dispersal surfaces in minimum-time interception
A method is proposed for mapping the barrier, dispersal, and control-level surfaces for a class of minimum-time interception and pursuit-evasion problems. Minimum-time interception of a target moving in a horizontal plane is formulated in a coordinate system whose origin is at the interceptor's terminal position and whose x-axis is along the terminal line of sight. This approach makes it possible to discuss the nature of the interceptor's extremals, using its extremal trajectory maps (ETMs), independently of target motion. The game surfaces are constructed by drawing sections of the isochrones, or constant minimum-time loci, from the interceptor and target ETMs. In this way, feedback solutions for the optimal controls are obtained. An example involving the interception of a target moving in a straight line at constant speed is presented.
Rajan, N.↗
Light interception and leaf area estimates from measurements of grass canopy reflectance
Grassland is a major component of the earth's available land. The vast area and remoteness of this ecosystem makes it difficult to assess its condition and monitor productivity by traditional methods. Remote sensing potentially offers a rapid nondestructive approach for monitoring such ecosystems. A study was carried out in a tallgrass prairie site near Manhattan, Kansas, during the 1983 and 1984 seasons to investigate the feasibility of estimating light interception and green leaf area index (LAI) from measurements of canopy multispectral reflectance. Greenness (Gn) index was found to be strongly correlated with intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Two methods, a direct regression (RGR) and an indirect approach (IND), were used to estimate LAI from Gn index. The LAI values estimated by RGR method were consistently lower than the measured ones; however, good agreement was obtained between the LAI values estimated by IND method and the measured LAI. This suggests that Gn transformation of canopy spectral reflectance is more closely related to the fraction of intercepted PAR by green foliage than the quantity of green LAI.
Asrar, G.↗