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At least 19 records

Impact of ITCZ width on global climate: ITCZ-MIP

Abstract. The width of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affects tropical rainfall, Earth's albedo, large-scale circulation, and climate sensitivity. To better understand the ITCZ width and its effects on global climate, we present a protocol to force changes in ITCZ width in climate models. Starting from an aquaplanet configuration with a slab ocean, adding surface heat fluxes in the deep tropics forces the ITCZ to narrow, and subtracting them causes it to widen. The protocol successfully generates changes in ITCZ width in all four climate models used in this study. ITCZ width in each model responds linearly to forcing magnitude and sign. Comparing across the four climate models, a response to varying ITCZ width that is remarkably consistent among models is the ITCZ strength, which is greater the narrower the ITCZ. On the other hand, the effect of varying ITCZ width on climate sensitivity is divergent among our four models, varying even in sign. Results from this pilot study highlight the connections between surface fluxes, ITCZ width, and the wider climate. A comprehensive model intercomparison project (MIP) has the potential to advance understanding of both the physical processes shaping ITCZ width and its influence on remote atmospheric circulations and global climate.

Geology↗

Multiple Quasi-Equilibria of the ITCZ and the Origin of Monsoon Onset: Rotational ITCZ Attractors - Part 2

Chao's numerical and theoretical work on multiple quasi-equilibria of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the origin of monsoon onset is extended to solve two additional puzzles. One is the highly nonlinear dependence on latitude of the "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation, which makes the multiple quasi-equilibria of the ITCZ and monsoon onset possible. The other is the dramatic difference in such dependence when different cumulus parameterization schemes are used in a model. Such a difference can lead to a switch between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ, when a different cumulus parameterization scheme is used. Sometimes one of the double ITCZ can diminish and only the other remain, but still this can mean different latitudinal locations for the single ITCZ. A single idea based on two off-equator attractors for the ITCZ, due to earth's rotation and symmetric with respect to the equator, and the dependence of the strength and size of these attractors on the cumulus parameterization scheme solves both puzzles. The origin of these rotational attractors, explained in Part I, is further discussed. The "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation is the sum of the "forces" of the two attractors. Each attractor exerts on the ITCZ a "force" of simple shape in latitude; but the sum gives a shape highly varying in latitude. Also the strength and the domain of influence of each attractor vary, when change is made in the cumulus parameterization. This gives rise to the high sensitivity of the "force" shape to cumulus parameterization. Numerical results, of experiments using Goddard's GEOS general circulation model, supporting this idea are presented. It is also found that the model results are sensitive to changes outside of the cumulus parameterization. The significance of this study to El Nino forecast and to tropical forecast in general is discussed.

Chao, Winston C.↗

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗

Reduction of Pacific Double‐ITCZ Bias by Convection Parameterization in NCAR CESM2.2

Abstract The impact of convective closure on the double‐ITCZ bias in the NCAR CESM2.2 is investigated in this study. The standard CESM2.2 simulates a remarkable double‐ITCZ bias in the central and eastern Pacific, especially in boreal winter and spring. Modifications to the closure in convection parameterization scheme greatly reduce the double‐ITCZ bias in all seasons, demonstrating that convection parameterization can substantially influence the double‐ITCZ bias in CESM2.2. Further analyses suggest that convection parameterization can modulate the tropical atmosphere‐ocean feedback processes, through which it influences the SST in the southern ITCZ region and hence the double‐ITCZ bias. The changes in the upper ocean temperature advection induced by modified convective closure plays important roles in reducing the warm SST bias and double‐ITCZ precipitation bias in the southern ITCZ region. The modified convective closure improves the low‐level cloud and shortwave cloud radiative forcing in the southeastern Pacific. However, surface heat flux plays only a limited role in reducing warm SST bias and double ITCZ bias because the impacts of shortwave radiation changes are largely canceled by changes in longwave radiation and latent heat flux.

Song, Xiaoliang [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Seasonal and CO 2 -Induced Shifts of the ITCZ: Testing Energetic Controls in Idealized Simulations with Comprehensive Models

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble—a multimodel ensemble of slab-ocean simulations in idealized configurations—provides a test of the relationship between the zonal mean ITCZ and the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transports (AHT eq ). In a gross sense, the ITCZ position is linearly related to AHT eq , as expected from the energetic framework. Yet, in many aspects, the TRACMIP model simulations do not conform to the framework. Throughout the annual cycle there are large excursions in the ITCZ position unrelated to changes in the AHT eq and, conversely, substantial variations in the magnitude of the AHT eq while the ITCZ is stationary at its northernmost position. Variations both in the net vertical energy input at the ITCZ location and in the vertical profile of ascent play a role in setting the model behavior apart from the conceptual framework. Nevertheless, a linear fit to the ITCZ–AHT eq relationship captures a substantial fraction of the seasonal variations in these quantities as well as the intermodel or across-climate variations in their annual mean values. The slope of the ITCZ–AHT eq linear fit for annual mean changes across simulations with different forcings and configurations varies in magnitude and even sign from model to model and we identify variations in the vertical profile of ascent as a key factor. A simple sea surface temperature–based index avoids the complication of changes in the vertical structure of the atmospheric circulation and provides a more reliable diagnostic for the ITCZ position.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of Equatorial Cold Tongue in Central Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2

Warm SST bias underlying the spurious southern ITCZ has long been recognized as one of the main causes for double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs in the central Pacific. This study demonstrates that the NCAR CESM1.2 can still simulate significant double-ITCZ bias even with cold SST bias in the southern ITCZ region, indicating that warm SST bias is not a necessary condition for double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. Further analyses suggest that the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) biases play important roles in the formation of double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. The severe cold SST biases in the ECT region in the central Pacific may enhance the SST gradient between the ECT and southern ITCZ region, strengthening the lower troposphere dynamical convergence and hence convection in the southern ITCZ region. The formation mechanism of excessive ECT bias is further investigated. It is shown that the cold SST biases in the ECT region can be largely attributed to the anomalous cooling tendency produced by the upper ocean zonal advection due to overly strong zonal currents. In the ECT region, the westward ocean surface zonal current is driven by the equatorial easterly surface winds. In this work, it is shown that convection bias simulated by the atmospheric model in the equatorial Amazon region may lead to easterly wind bias in the downwind side (west) of convection region. Finally, the mean Walker circulation transports these easterly wind momentum anomalies downward and westward to the surface, resulting in the overly strong surface easterly wind in the central equatorial Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single and Double ITCZ in Aqua-Planet Models with Globally Uniform Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Insolation: An Interpretation

It has been known for more than a decade that an aqua-planet model with globally uniform sea surface temperature and solar insolation angle can generate ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone). Previous studies have shown that the ITCZ under such model settings can be changed between a single ITCZ over the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator through one of several measures. These measures include switching to a different cumulus parameterization scheme, changes within the cumulus parameterization scheme, and changes in other aspects of the model design such as horizontal resolution. In this paper an interpretation for these findings is offered. The latitudinal location of the ITCZ is the latitude where the balance of two types of attraction on the ITCZ, both due to earth's rotation, exists. The first type is equator-ward and is directly related to the earth's rotation and thus not sensitive to model design changes. The second type is poleward and is related to the convective circulation and thus is sensitive to model design changes. Due to the shape of the attractors, the balance of the two types of attractions is reached either at the equator or more than 10 degrees away from the equator. The former case results in a single ITCZ over the equator and the latter case a double ITCZ straddling the equator.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Single and Double ITCZ in Aqua-Planet Models with Globally and Temporally Uniform Sea Surface Temperature and Solar Insolation: An Interpretation

Previous studies (Chao 2000, Chao and Chen 2001, Kirtman and Schneider 2000, Sumi 1992) have shown that, by means of one of several model design changes, the structure of the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with globally uniform SST and solar angle (U-SST-SA) can change between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ straddling the equator. These model design changes include switching to a different cumulus parameterization scheme (e.g., from relaxed Arakawa Schubert scheme (RAS) to moist convective adjustment scheme (MCA)), changes within the cumulus parameterization scheme, and changes in other aspects of the model, such as horizontal resolution. Sometimes only one component of the double ITCZ shows up; but still this is an ITCZ away from the equator, quite distinct from a single ITCZ over the equator. Since these model results were obtained by different investigators using different models which have yielded reasonable general circulation, they are considered as reliable. Chao and Chen (2001; hereafter CC01) have made an initial attempt to interpret these findings based on the concept of rotational ITCZ attractors that they introduced. The purpose of this paper is to offer a more complete interpretation.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Active modes of the Pacific ITCZ

ITCZ intensity across the Pacific for the 1975-1976 season is studied. Analysis of the data reveal: zonal bands of convective development; isolated patches of stronger convection; and several zonal bands which merge as tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The ITCZ intensity at 160 deg W is compared with the intensity averaged all the way across the Pacific. Composite outgoing longwave radiation anomaly maps for 22 days of local active ITCZ at 160 deg W, 26 days of zonally averaged active ITCZ, and 16 days of both local and zonal active ITCZ are presented and examined. It is noted that: systematic, yet different, patterns, movement, and temporal behavior correspond to local and zonally extensive convection; intensifying zonal convection moves southward; local convection occurs at two preferential latitudes; and local convection does not mean there is a generally active ITCZ.

Hayes, P. M.↗

The Origin of Monsoon Onset: Rotational ITCZ Attractors - Part 2

Through various specially designed numerical experiments with an aqua-planet general circulation model and theoretical arguments. Chao showed the existence of multiple quasi-equilibria of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). He also showed that monsoon onset could be interpreted as an abrupt transition between the quasi-equilibria of the ITCZ. He further showed that the origin of these quasi-equilibria is related to two different types of attraction pulling the ITCZ in opposite directions. One type of attraction on the ITCZ is due to earth's rotation, which pulls the ITCZ toward the equator or two equatorial latitudes symmetric with respect to the equator depending on the choice of convection scheme, and the other due to the peak of the sea surface temperature (SST, which is given in the experiments a Gaussian profile in latitude and is uniform in longitude), which pulls the ITCZ toward a latitude just poleward of the SST peak. The strength of the attraction due to the earth's rotation has a highly nonlinear dependence on the latitude and that due to the SST peak has a linear (at least in a relative sense) dependence on the latitude.

Chao, Winston C.↗

The Origins of ITCZs, Monsoons, and Monsoon Onset

Intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs), monsoons and monsoon onset are among the most prominent of atmospheric phenomena. Understanding their origins is fundamental to a full understanding of the atmospheric general circulation and has challenged meteorologists for a very long time. There has been important progress in understanding these phenomena in recent years, and in this seminar, recent developments, to which the speaker has contributed, are reviewed. First, contrary to conventional belief, land-sea thermal contrast is not necessary for monsoons to form. Second, monsoon onset occurs when there is a sudden poleward jump of an ITCZ during its annual cycle of latitudinal movement. A monsoon, then, is an ITCZ after its poleward jump. Third, the SST latitudinal maximum is not the most significant, or even a necessary, factor in the formation of an ITCZ; there are other important, if not more important, factors. These factors are the interaction between convection and surface fluxes, the interaction between convection and radiation, and the earth's rotation. Finally, the recent understanding of how ITCZs form has led to a conceptual explanation for the origin of the double ITCZ bias in GCM simulations.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Contrasting Recent and Future ITCZ Changes from Distinct Tropical Warming Patterns

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a salient feature of the Earth’s deep-tropical circulation. Here we report and explain the contrasting changes in seasonal ITCZs over recent decades and under future warming. We show that seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward and narrowed over recent decades but are projected to shift equatorward and widen under future warming. Such contrasting changes are induced by distinct surface warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled over recent decades with phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but in the future it will experience stronger anthropogenic warming than the tropical mean. The effect of surface warming pattern on ITCZ is consistently explained by thermodynamic and energetic theories and is demonstrated through atmosphere-only simulations forced with prescribed SST. In the coming decades, PDO may change into a positive phase. This will enhance the equatorial warming and lead to amplified ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends.

Zhou, Wenyu↗

The Origin of Systematic Errors in the GCM Simulation of ITCZ Precipitation over Oceans

This study provides explanations for some of the experimental findings of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001) concerning the mechanisms responsible for the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model. These explanations are then applied to explain the origin of some of the systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitatin over oceans. The ITCZ systematic errors are highly sensitive to model physics and by extension model horizontal resolution. The findings in this study along with those of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001, 2004) contribute to building a theoretical foundation for ITCZ study. A few possible methods of alleviating the systematic errors in the GCM simulaiton of ITCZ are discussed. This study uses a recent version of the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) GCM.

Chao, Winston C.↗

The Role of African Easterly Wave on Dust Transport and the Interaction Between Saharan Dust Layer and Atlantic ITCZ During Boreal Summer

Saharan dust outbreaks not only transport large amount of dust to the northern Atlantic Ocean, but also alter African easterly jet and wave activities along the jet by changing north-south temperature gradient. Recent modeling and observational studies show that during periods of enhance outbreaks, rainfall on the northern part of ITCZ increases in conjunction with a northward shift of ITCZ toward the dust layer. In this paper, we study the radiative forcing of Saharan dust and its interactions with the Atlantic Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), through African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jet (AEJ), using the Terra/Aqua observations as well as MERRA data. Using band pass filtered EOF analysis, we find that African easterly waves propagating westward along two principal tracks, centered at 15-25N and 5-10N respectively. The easterly waves in the northern track are slower, with propagation speed of 9 ms-1, and highly correlated with major dust outbreak over North Africa. On the other hand, easterly waves along the southern track are faster with propagating speed of 10 ms-1, and are closely tied to rainfall/cloud variations along the Atlantic ITCZ. Dust transport along the southern track leads rainfall/cloud anomalies in the same region by one or two days, suggesting the southern tracks of dust outbreak are regions of strong interaction between Saharan dust layer and Atlantic ITCZ. Possible linkage between two tracks of easterly waves, as well as the long-term change of easterly wave activities and dust outbreaks, are also discussed.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Eastern Pacific ITCZ during the Boreal Spring

The 6-year (1998-2003) rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to quantify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific (defined by longitudinal averages over 90 degrees W-130 degrees W) during boreal spring (March-April). The double ITCZ phenomenon, represented by the occurrence of two maxima with respect to latitude in monthly mean rainfall, is observed in most but not all of the years studied. The relative spatial locations of maxima in sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and surface pressure are examined. Interannual and weekly variability are characterized in SST, rainfall, surface convergence, total column water vapor, and cloud water. There appears to be a competition for rainfall between the two hemispheres during this season. When one of the two rainfall maxima is particularly strong, the other tends to be weak, with the total rainfall integrated over the two varying less than does the difference between the rainfall integrated over each separately. There is some evidence for a similar competition between the SST maxima in the two hemispheres, but this is more ambiguous, and there is evidence that some variations in the relative strengths of the two rainfall maxima may be independent of SST. Using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), four distinct ITCZ types during March-April are defined, based on the relative strengths of rainfall peaks north and south of, and right over the equator. Composite meridional profiles and spatial distributions of rainfall and SST are documented for each type. Consistent with previous studies, an equatorial cold tongue is essential to the existence of the double ITCZs. However, too strong a cold tongue may dampen either the southern or northern rainfall maximum, depending on the magnitude of SST north of the equator.

Gu, Guojun↗

The Role of African Easterly Wave on Dust Transport and the Interaction Between Saharan Dust Layer and Atlantic ITCZ During Boreal Summer

In this paper, we investigate the relationships among Saharan dust outbreak and transport, African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jet (AEJ) and associated convective activities of Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using Cloudsat-Calipso, MODIS and MERRA data. We find that a major Saharan dust outbreak is associated with the formation of a westward propagating strong cyclone around 15-25N over the western part northern Saharan. The strong cyclonic flow mobilizes and lifts the dust from the desert surface to a high elevation. As the cyclone propagate westward, it transports a thick elevated dust layer between 900 -500 hPa from the African continent to the eastern Atlantic. Cloudiness is reduced within the warm, dry dusty layer, but enhanced underneath it, possibly due to the presence of a shallow inversion layer over the marine boundary layer. The dust outbreak is linked to enhanced deep convection in the northern part of Atlantic ITCZ, abutting the southern flank of the dust layer, and a strengthening of the northward flank of the AEJ. As the dust layer spreads westward, it loses elevation and becomes increasing diffused as it reaches the central and western Atlantic. Using band pass filtered EOF analysis of MERRA winds, we find that AEWs propagating westward along two principal tracks, centered at 15-25N and 5-10N respectively. The easterly waves in the northern track are highly correlated with major dust outbreak over North Africa and associated with slower moving systems, with a quasi-periodicity of 6-9 day. On the other hand, easterly waves along the southern track are faster, with quasi-periodicity of 3-5 days. These faster easterly waves are closely tied to rainfall/cloud variations along the Atlantic ITCZ. Dust transport along the southern track by the faster waves generally leads rainfall/cloud anomalies in the same region by one or two days, suggesting the southern tracks of dust outbreak are regions of strong interaction between Saharan dust layer and Atlantic ITCZ.

Lau, William K. M.↗

The Effect of an Equatorial Continent on the Tropical Rain Belt. Part 1: Annual Mean Changes in the ITCZ

The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet controls and experiments with a highly idealized tropical continent, characterized by modified aquaplanet grid cells with increased evaporative resistance, increased albedo, reduced heat capacity, and no ocean heat transport (zero Q-flux). In the annual mean, an equatorial cold tongue develops west of the continent and induces dry anomalies and a split in the oceanic intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Ocean cooling is initiated by advection of cold, dry air from the winter portion of the continent; warm, humid anomalies in the summer portion are restricted to the continent by anomalous surface convergence. The surface energy budget suggests that ocean cooling persists and intensifies because of a positive feedback between a colder surface, drier and colder air, reduced downwelling longwave (LW) flux, and enhanced net surface LW cooling (LW feedback). A feedback between wind, evaporation, and SST (so-called WES feedback) also contributes to the establishment and maintenance of the cold tongue. Simulations with a gray-radiation model and simulations that diverge from protocol (with negligible winter cooling) confirm the importance of moist-radiative feedbacks and of rectification effects on the seasonal cycle. This mechanism coupling the continental and oceanic climate might be relevant to the double ITCZ bias. The key role of the LW feedback suggests that the study of interactions between monsoons and oceanic ITCZs requires full-physics models and a hierarchy of land models that considers evaporative processes alongside heat capacity as a defining characteristic of land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗