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At least 19 records

The Antarctic Ice Sheet, Sea Ice, and the Ozone Hole: Satellite Observations of how they are Changing

Antarctica is the Earth's coldest and highest continent and has major impacts on the climate and life of the south polar vicinity. It is covered almost entirely by the Earth's largest ice sheet by far, with a volume of ice so great that if all the Antarctic ice were to go into the ocean (as ice or liquid water), this would produce a global sea level rise of about 60 meters (197 feet). The continent is surrounded by sea ice that in the wintertime is even more expansive than the continent itself and in the summertime reduces to only about a sixth of its wintertime extent. Like the continent, the expansive sea ice cover has major impacts, reflecting the sun's radiation back to space, blocking exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and providing a platform for some animal species while impeding other species. Far above the continent, the Antarctic ozone hole is a major atmospheric phenomenon recognized as human-caused and potentially quite serious to many different life forms. Satellites are providing us with remarkable information about the ice sheet, the sea ice, and the ozone hole. Satellite visible and radar imagery are providing views of the large scale structure of the ice sheet never seen before; satellite laser altimetry has produced detailed maps of the topography of the ice sheet; and an innovative gravity-measuring two-part satellite has allowed mapping of regions of mass loss and mass gain on the ice sheet. The surrounding sea ice cover has a satellite record that goes back to the 1970s, allowing trend studies that show a decreasing sea ice presence in the region of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas, to the west of the prominent Antarctic Peninsula, but increasing sea ice presence around much of the rest of the continent. Overall, sea ice extent around Antarctica has increased at an average rate of about 17,000 square kilometers per year since the late 1970s, as determined from satellite microwave data that can be collected under both light and dark conditions and irrespective of whether clouds are in the way between the surface and the satellite. In contrast, the highest quality satellite measurements of the ozone hole use ultraviolet light, which requires daylight conditions. Still, satellite ultraviolet measurements of the ozone hole have also been made since the late 1970s, and these show a marked increase in the area and depth of the ozone hole in the 1980s and early 1990s, followed by a welcome leveling off of both measures since the mid-1990s.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Freshwater Forcing of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G (a CMIP6 model) simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. In this ensemble there are detectable differences in zonal-mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model's representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Southern Ocean surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all-forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons.

Ice sheet↗

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

ice↗

Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model

Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ~2 km, as opposed to ~0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ~1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗

Time-Varying Ice Sheet Mask: Implications on Ice-Sheet Mass Balance and Crustal Uplift

Mass-balance estimates of the polar ice sheets presently rely on static ice masks to identify the area under investigation. However, the vintage of available ice masks can differ by more than a decade and the resolution of the imagery used to delineate ice extent can differ by an order of magnitude, despite evidence of ongoing ice-sheet retreat. We show that using a fine resolution, time-varying ice mask significantly improves mass-balance estimates of the northwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet and affects interpretation of local crustal uplift. Accounting for ice margin retreat using a time-varying ice mask between 2003–2015 results in 1.0–6.8% less ice-sheet mass loss relative to assuming one of several existing static ice masks. This indicates that mass-balance estimates that use a static ice mask will progressively overestimate mass loss where the ice sheet is predominantly retreating, meaning a negative bias on mass-balance. This trend is anticipated to be amplified in a future warming scenario unless updated ice masks are incorporated. For altimetry-derived mass-balance estimates, this ice-mask induced bias approaches the magnitude of the ice-sheet-wide uncertainty presently associated with spatiotemporal variability in modeled firn compaction. Further, at five GNET stations, the ice-mask-induced bias is equivalent to 5–15% of the modeled uplift due to elastic deformation. Given present and projected negative trends in Greenland Ice Sheet mass-balance and areal extent, we conclude that studies of its mass-balance should begin incorporating dynamic, periodically updated, fine-resolution ice masks. This methodological refinement will reduce bias in estimates of both ice-sheet mass-balance and crustal uplift.

Kristian K. Kjeldsen↗

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

Thomas, R. H.↗

Monitoring the Flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet: the PROMICE Ice Velocity Product and Recent Updates

We present the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) ice velocity product, which is a time series of ice velocity mosaics derived using offset tracking on Sentinel-1 SAR data. The time series starting in January 2016 is continuously updated with a new mosaic every 12 days and is posted at 500 m grid resolution. Within PROMICE, the ice velocity product is used directly as input to estimate the solid ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet as well as to study ice dynamic processes on seasonal and multi-annual time scales. Recently, we have made changes to the processing chain due to spurious cases of slow down detected in a few glaciers in Southeast Greenland. In this contribution, we discuss how this was resolved as well as other recent improvements to the product.

Greenland ice sheet↗

Modeling of Firn Compaction for Estimating Ice-Sheet Mass Change from Observed Ice-Sheet Elevation Change

Changes in ice-sheet surface elevation are caused by a combination of ice-dynamic imbalance, ablation, temporal variations in accumulation rate, firn compaction and underlying bedrock motion. Thus, deriving the rate of ice-sheet mass change from measured surface elevation change requires information on the rate of firn compaction and bedrock motion, which do not involve changes in mass, and requires an appropriate firn density to associate with elevation changes induced by recent accumulation rate variability. We use a 25 year record of surface temperature and a parameterization for accumulation change as a function of temperature to drive a firn compaction model. We apply this formulation to ICESat measurements of surface elevation change at three locations on the Greenland ice sheet in order to separate the accumulation-driven changes from the ice-dynamic/ablation-driven changes, and thus to derive the corresponding mass change. Our calculated densities for the accumulation-driven changes range from 410 to 610 kg/cu m, which along with 900 kg/cu m for the dynamic/ablation-driven changes gives average densities ranging from 680 to 790 kg/cu m. We show that using an average (or "effective") density to convert elevation change to mass change is not valid where the accumulation and the dynamic elevation changes are of opposite sign.

Li, Jun↗

Improved Treatment of Snow Over Ice Sheets in the NASA GISS Climate Model: Towards Ice Sheet–Climate Coupling

Representing the interactions between ice sheets and climate is essential for more accurate prediction of climate change and sea level rise. Ice sheets interact with the overlying atmosphere via the accumulation of snow and its compaction into firn, then ice, as well as the melting of surface snow and ice and the creation of runoff water. Getting an adequate representation of heat transfer, compaction, and melting processes is essential for an accurate representation of snow on land ice in global climate models. We are implementing an improved snow model on top of land ice as part of an effort to couple the NASA GISS climate model with the PISM ice sheet model. The new snow model includes additional layers and processes that are not currently incorporated (e.g., liquid water retention, percolation and refreezing, and snow densification), and mass and energy transfer methods that are consistent with both static ice sheets (with implicit iceberg fluxes) and interactive ice sheets (with explicit dynamics). We are tuning the densification scheme of this snow model with temperature and density data from common FirnCover and SumUp observations at locations in the accumulation zone of Greenland, and we compare the resulting density profiles to other SumUp density profiles in Greenland and Antarctica. We will assess the impact of this new snow model in climate model simulations with a static ice sheet compared with the previous (simpler) 2-layer snow model. Finally, we aim to use the non-coupled simulations as a baseline to assess the impact of dynamic coupling with an interactive ice sheet model.

snow↗

Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nanometers. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (approximately 300 microns) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (220 microns) and East Antarctica is the smallest (190 microns). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations.

ice↗

Aquarius Radiometer and Scatterometer Weekly-Polar-Gridded Products to Monitor Ice Sheets, Sea Ice, and Frozen Soil

Space-based microwave sensors have been available for several decades, and with time more frequencies have been offered. Observations made at frequencies between 7 and 183 GHz were often used for monitoring cryospheric properties (e.g. sea ice concentration, snow accumulation, snow melt extent and duration). Since 2009, satellite observations are available at the low frequency of 1.4 GHz. Such observations are collected by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, and the AquariusSAC-D mission. Even though these missions have been designed for the monitoring of soil moisture and sea surface salinity, new applications are being developed to study the cryosphere. For instance, L-band observations can be used to monitor soil freezethaw (e.g. Rautiainen et al., 2012), and thin sea ice thickness (e.g. Kaleschke et al., 2010, Huntemann et al., 2013). Moreover, with the development of satellite missions comes the need for calibration and validation sites. These sites must have stable characteristics, such as the Antarctic Plateau (Drinkwater et al., 2004, Macelloni et al., 2013). Therefore, studying the cryosphere with 1.4 GHz observations is relevant for both science applications, and remote sensing applications.

Aquarius↗

Aquarius Radiometer and Scatterometer Weekly Polar-Gridded Products to Monitor Ice Sheets, Sea Ice, and Frozen Soil

Space-based microwave sensors have been available for several decades, and with time more frequencies have been offered. Observations made at frequencies between 7 and 183 GHz were often used for monitoring cryospheric properties (e.g. sea ice concentration, snow accumulation, snow melt extent and duration). Since 2009, satellite observations are available at the low frequency of 1.4 GHz. Such observations are collected by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, and the Aquarius/SAC-D mission. Even though these missions have been designed for the monitoring of soil moisture and sea surface salinity, new applications are being developed to study the cryosphere. For instance, L-band observations can be used to monitor soil freeze/thaw (e.g. Rautiainen et al., 2012), and thin sea ice thickness (e.g. Kaleschke et al., 2010, Huntemann et al., 2013). Moreover, with the development of satellite missions comes the need for calibration and validation sites. These sites must have stable characteristics, such as the Antarctic Plateau (Drinkwater et al., 2004, Macelloni et al., 2013). Therefore, studying the cryosphere with 1.4 GHz observations is relevant for both science applications, and remote sensing applications.

Sea ice↗

Preservation of a Preglacial Landscape Under the Center of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Continental ice sheets typically sculpt landscapes via erosion; under certain conditions, ancient landscapes can be preserved beneath ice and can survive extensive and repeated glaciation. We used concentrations of atmospherically produced cosmogenic beryllium-10, carbon, and nitrogen to show that ancient soil has been preserved in basal ice for millions of years at the center of the ice sheet at Summit, Greenland. This finding suggests ice sheet stability through the Pleistocene (i.e., the past 2.7 million years). The preservation of this soil implies that the ice has been non-erosive and frozen to the bed for much of that time, that there was no substantial exposure of central Greenland once the ice sheet became fully established, and that preglacial landscapes can remain preserved for long periods under continental ice sheets

Preservation↗

Exploring ice sheet model sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing and basal sliding using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM)

Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenario and modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up. Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗