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DOE OSTI2024

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Microphysical Properties of Ice Crystals From Cloud Particle Imagery

The microphysical properties of ice crystals are important because they significantly alter the radiative properties and spatiotemporal distributions of clouds, which in turn strongly affect Earth's climate. However, it is challenging to measure key properties of ice crystals, such as mass or morphological features. Here, we present a proof-of-concept framework for predicting three-dimensional (3D) microphysical properties of ice crystals from in situ two-dimensional (2D) imagery. First, we computationally generated synthetic ice crystals using 3D modeling software along with geometric parameters estimated from the 2021 Ice Cryo-Encapsulation Balloon (ICEBall) field campaign. Then, we used synthetic crystals to train machine learning (ML) models to predict effective density ($ρ_e$), effective surface area ($A_e$), and number of bullets ($N_b$) from synthetic rosette imagery. On unseen synthetic images, our ML models accurately predicted ice crystal properties. ResNet-18 performed best, achieving $R^2$ values of 0.99 and 0.98 for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$, respectively, and MAE of 0.10 for mathematical equation in single view tasks. Stereo view ResNet-18 further reduced RMSE by 40% for $ρ_e$ and $A_e$ and reduced MAE by 0.08 for $N_b$. This work provides a novel ML-driven framework for estimating ice microphysical properties from in situ imagery, which will allow for downstream constraints on microphysical parameterizations, such as the mass-size relationship.

Ko, J. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United State↗

DOE OSTI2024

Partition between supercooled liquid droplets and ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds based on airborne in situ observations

Abstract. The onset of ice nucleation in mixed-phase clouds determines the lifetime and microphysical properties of ice clouds. In this work, we develop a novel method that differentiates between various phases of mixed-phase clouds, such as clouds dominated by pure liquid or pure ice segments, compared with those having ice crystals surrounded by supercooled liquid water droplets or vice versa. Using this method, we examine the relationship between the macrophysical and microphysical properties of Southern Ocean mixed-phase clouds at −40 to 0 °C (e.g. stratiform and cumuliform clouds) based on the in situ aircraft-based observations during the US National Science Foundation Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) flight campaign. The results show that the exchange between supercooled liquid water and ice crystals from a macrophysical perspective, represented by the increasing spatial ratio of regions containing ice crystals relative to the total in-cloud region (defined as ice spatial ratio), is positively correlated with the phase exchange from a microphysical perspective, represented by the increasing ice water content (IWC), decreasing liquid water content (LWC), increasing ice mass fraction, and increasing ice particle number fraction (IPNF). The mass exchange between liquid and ice becomes more significant during phase 3 when pure ice cloud regions (ICRs) start to appear. Occurrence frequencies of cloud thermodynamic phases show a significant phase change from liquid to ice at a similar temperature (i.e. −17.5 °C) among three types of definitions of mixed-phase clouds based on ice spatial ratio, ice mass fraction, or IPNF. Aerosol indirect effects are quantified for different phases using number concentrations of aerosols greater than 100 or 500 nm (N>100 and N>500, respectively). N>500 shows stronger positive correlations with ice spatial ratios compared with N>100. This result indicates that larger aerosols potentially contain ice-nucleating particles (INPs), which facilitate the formation of ice crystals in mixed-phase clouds. The impact of N>500 is also more significant in phase 2 when ice crystals just start to appear in the mixed phase compared with phase 3 when pure ICRs have formed, possibly due to the competing aerosol indirect effects on primary and secondary ice production in phase 3. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions are quantified for each phase. The results show stronger in-cloud turbulence and higher updraughts in phases 2 and 3 when liquid and ice coexist compared with pure liquid or ice (phases 1 and 4, respectively). The highest updraughts and turbulence are seen in phase 3 when supercooled liquid droplets are surrounded by ice crystals. These results indicate both updraughts and turbulence support the maintenance of supercooled liquid water amongst ice crystals. Overall, these results illustrate the varying effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and dynamics through various stages of mixed-phase cloud evolution based on this new method that categorizes cloud phases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prognostic simulations of mixed-phase clouds with model AC-1D v1.0: the impact of aerosol types and freezing parameterizations on ice crystal budgets

Mixed-phase clouds at high latitudes contribute to the uncertainty in predicting cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity, mainly due to the complexity of microphysical processes that influence the partitioning between the supercooled liquid and ice phases, and hence, cloud radiative effects on regional scales. Particularly in Arctic mixed-phase clouds, the activation of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) from various aerosol populations remains a leading source of uncertainty. We developed an aerosol-cloud one-dimensional (AC-1D) model, which provides a novel framework to prognostically treat INP and ice crystal budgets while explicitly accounting for polydisperse and multicomponent aerosol that activate INPs following different freezing parameterizations. The AC-1D model is informed by large-eddy simulations to probe the impact of INP representation on predicted ice crystal number concentrations (N i ) and ice crystal budgets in mixed-phase Arctic stratus. We apply three immersion freezing (IMF) parameterizations, two time-independent (singular) and one time-dependent (classical nucleation theory), to predict the evolution of the INP reservoir and resulting ice crystal budget from polydisperse mineral dust, organic (humic-like substances), and sea spray aerosol particle size distributions. Our analysis focuses on how variations in aerosol number concentration and cloud system parameters such as cloud cooling rate, cloud-top entrainment rate, and ice crystal fall speed influence the INP reservoir and ice crystal budgets. Furthermore, this study investigates the competitive ice nucleation dynamics in mixed aerosol environments and provides a process-level quantification of the INP budget terms, which directly controls ice crystal budgets. For all studied case scenarios, the aerosol types and associated particle size distributions significantly impact INP and N i , and the choice between a time-dependent and a singular freezing description yields orders-of-magnitude differences in the predicted INP and N i over the 10 h simulation time, reflecting typical cloud lifetimes. Our results show that the influence of cloud cooling, INP entrainment, and sedimentation varies significantly depending on the chosen freezing parameterization. These findings underscore the critical need for robust IMF parameterizations and precise cloud system observations to enhance the accuracy of models in predicting mixed-phase cloud structure and evolution.

Arctic clouds↗

DOE OSTI2024

Application of aerosol-ice nucleating particle closure to establish the leading parameters governing ice crystal number concentration under commonly observed mixed-phase cloud conditions

This is the final technical report for DOE DE-SC0021034 award entitled “Application of aerosol-ice nucleating particle closure to establish the leading parameters governing ice crystal number concentration under commonly observed mixed-phase cloud conditions”. The overarching objective of this project was to gain a predictive understanding of the processes that lead from aerosols to ice-nucleating particles (INPs) to ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs) in stratiform mixed-phase clouds where supercooled water droplets and ice crystals coexist, and to inform climate model parameterizations. During this four-year project we addressed the three main research goals of this objective: 1) Study the aerosol-INP link; 2) Develop an aerosol-cloud column model (AC-1D); and 3) Study the INP-ICNC link. Those activities significantly advanced our predictive understanding of how to represent INPs in could models and its implications on ice crystal number concentrations. The results have been published in five peer-reviewed publications with three more in review and preparation. It allowed for collaboration resulting in additional fourteen peer-reviewed publications that are concerned with the objective of this research project. This research has been communicated to the scientific community at national and international meetings and conferences by numerous talks, seminars, and posters including fifteen invited presentations. This project allowed training of four graduate students and one postdoctoral research associate resulting in one M.S. thesis and advancement to Ph.D. candidacy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular-resolution imaging of ice crystallized from liquid water by cryogenic liquid-cell TEM

Despite the ubiquity of ice, a molecular-resolution image of nanoscopic defects or microstructures in ice crystallized from liquid water has never been obtained. This is mainly due to the difficulties in preparing and preserving crystalline ice samples that can survive under high-resolution imaging conditions. Here, we report the stabilization and Å-resolution electron imaging of ice Ih crystallized from liquid water by developing cryogenic liquid-cell transmission electron microscopy (CRYOLIC-TEM). We combine lattice mapping with molecular dynamics simulations to reveal that ice formation is highly tolerant to nanoscale defects such as misoriented subdomains and trapped gas bubbles, which are stabilized by molecular-scale structural motifs. Importantly, bubble surfaces adopt low-energy nanofacets and create negligible strain fields in the surrounding crystal. These bubbles can dynamically nucleate, grow, migrate, dissolve, and coalesce under electron irradiation and be monitored in situ near a steady state. This work improves our understanding of water crystallization behaviors at a molecular spatial resolution.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Semi-Analytic Functions to Calculate the Deposition Coefficients for Ice Crystal Vapor Growth in Bin and Bulk Microphysical Models

Numerical cloud models require estimates of the vapor growth rate for ice crystals. Current bulk and bin microphysical parameterizations generally assume that vapor growth is diffusion limited, though some parameterizations include the influence of surface attachment kinetics through a constant deposition coefficient. A parameterization for variable deposition coefficients is provided herein. The parameterization is an explicit function of the ambient ice supersaturation and temperature, and an implicit function of crystal dimensions and pressure. The parameterization is valid for variable surface types including growth by dislocations and growth by step nucleation. Deposition coefficients are predicted for the two primary growth directions of crystals, allowing for the evolution of the primary habits. Comparisons with benchmark calculations of instantaneous mass growth indicate that the parameterization is accurate to within a relative error of 1%. Parcel model simulations using Lagrangian microphysics as a benchmark indicate that the bulk parameterization captures the evolution of mass mixing ratio and fall speed with typical relative errors of less than 10%, whereas the average axis lengths can have errors of up to 20%. The bin model produces greater accuracy with relative errors often less that 10%. The deposition coefficient parameterization can be used in any bulk and bin scheme, with low error, if an equivalent volume spherical radius is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The microphysics of the warm-rain and ice crystal processes of precipitation in simulated continental convective storms

Precipitation in clouds can form by either warm-rain or ice crystal processes, referred to as warm and cold formation pathways, respectively. Here, we investigate the warm and cold pathway contributions to surface precipitation in simulated continental convective storms. We analyze three contrasting convective storms that are cold-based, slightly warm-based and very warm-based. We apply tracer-tagging techniques in our aerosol-cloud model to determine simulated microphysical pathways that lead to precipitation. We find cold components of graupel and rain mass were higher than warm components in cold- and slightly warm-based clouds. By contrast, in very warm-based clouds nearly 80% of surface precipitation was formed via warm-rain processes. Lowering of cloud base altitude to levels about 10–20 K warmer switched surface precipitation to being mostly warm, due to enhanced moisture content in the planetary boundary layer and larger cloud droplets aloft intensifying raindrop freezing. Our simulations indicate that warm and cold processes co-exist in any storm and the balance between them is determined by cloud base temperature and solute aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

In situ estimation of ice crystal properties at the South Pole using LED calibration data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory instruments about 1 km 3 of deep, glacial ice at the geographic South Pole. It uses 5160 photomultipliers to detect Cherenkov light emitted by charged relativistic particles. An unexpected light propagation effect observed by the experiment is an anisotropic attenuation, which is aligned with the local flow direction of the ice. We examine birefringent light propagation through the polycrystalline ice microstructure as a possible explanation for this effect. The predictions of a first-principles model developed for this purpose, in particular curved light trajectories resulting from asymmetric diffusion, provide a qualitatively good match to the main features of the data. This in turn allows us to deduce ice crystal properties. Since the wavelength of the detected light is short compared to the crystal size, these crystal properties include not only the crystal orientation fabric, but also the average crystal size and shape, as a function of depth. By adding small empirical corrections to this first-principles model, a quantitatively accurate description of the optical properties of the IceCube glacial ice is obtained. In this paper, we present the experimental signature of ice optical anisotropy observed in IceCube light-emitting diode (LED) calibration data, the theory and parameterization of the birefringence effect, the fitting procedures of these parameterizations to experimental data, and the inferred crystal properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026