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NASA NTRS1986

Microwave radiances from horizontally finite precipitating clouds containing ice and liquid hydrometeors

Microwave radiances that would be measured from satellite borne radiometers were computed as a function of rainfall rates from horizontally finite precipitating clouds containing ice and liquid hydrometeors capped by a layer of nonprecipitating ice that covers the remainder of the footprint. Ice at the top of the precipitating clouds depresses the brightness temperatures which depend on rainfall rates because the ice hydrometeor concentrations are assumed to be related to the rainfall rates at the cloud base. It is also found that the brightness temperatures of footprints partially covered by precipitation cells are a nonlinear function of the rainfall rate averaged over the footprint. Thus the average brightness temperatures depend on the peak rainfall rates and the size of the precipitating cloud.

Kummerow, C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme, Part 1: Description

A detailed ice-phase bulk microphysical scheme has been developed for simulating the hydrometeor distributions of convective and stratiform precipitation in different large-scale environmental conditions. The proposed scheme involves 90 distinct microphysical processes, which predict the mixing ratios and the number concentrations of small ice crystals, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail, as well as the mixing ratios of liquid water on wet precipitation ice (snow, graupel, frozen drops). The number of adjustable coefficients has been significantly reduced in comparison with other bulk schemes. Additional improvements have been made to the parameterization in the following areas: (1) representing small ice crystals with nonzero terminal fall velocities and dispersive size distributions, (2) accurate and computationally efficient calculations of precipitation collection processes, (3) reformulating the collection equation to prevent unrealistically large accretion rates, (4) more realistic conversion by riming between different classes of precipitation ice, (5) preventing unrealistically large rates of raindrop freezing and freezing of liquid water on ice, (6) detailed treatment of various rime-splintering ice multiplication mechanisms, (7) a simple representation of the Hobbs-Rangno ice enhancement process, (8) aggregation of small ice crystals and snow, and (9) allowing explicit competition between cloud water condensation and ice deposition rates rather than using saturation adjustment techniques. For the purposes of conserving the higher moments of the particle distributions, preserving the spectral widths (or slopes) of the particle spectra is shown to be more important than strict conservation of particle number concentration when parameterizing changes in ice-particle number concentrations due to melting, vapor transfer processes (sublimation of dry ice, evaporation from wet ice), and conversion between different hydrometeor species. The microphysical scheme is incorporated into a nonhydrostatic cloud model in Part 2 of this study. The model performed well in simulating the radar and microphysical structures of a midlatitude-continental squall lines and a tropical-maritime squall system with minimal tuning of the parameterization, even though the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity differed substantially between these storms.

Ferrier, Brad Shoenberg↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Preliminary Analysis of Precipitation Properties and Processes during NASA GPM IFloodS

The Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) ground measurement campaign, which took place in eastern Iowa from May 1 to June 15, 2013. The goals of the field campaign were to collect detailed measurements of surface precipitation using ground instruments and advanced weather radars while simultaneously collecting data from satellites passing overhead. Data collected by the radars and other ground instruments, such as disdrometers and rain gauges, will be used to characterize precipitation properties throughout the vertical column, including the precipitation type (e.g., rain, graupel, hail, aggregates, ice crystals), precipitation amounts (e.g., rain rate), and the size and shape of raindrops. The impact of physical processes, such as aggregation, melting, breakup and coalescence on the measured liquid and ice precipitation properties will be investigated. These ground observations will ultimately be used to improve rainfall estimates from satellites and in particular the algorithms that interpret raw data for the upcoming GPM mission's Core Observatory satellite, which launches in 2014. The various precipitation data collected will eventually be used as input to flood forecasting models in an effort to improve capabilities and test the utility and limitations of satellite precipitation data for flood forecasting. In this preliminary study, the focus will be on analysis of NASA NPOL (S‐band, polarimetric) radar (e.g., radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, differential phase, correlation coefficient) and NASA 2D Video Disdrometers (2DVDs) measurements. Quality control and processing of the radar and disdrometer data sets will be outlined. In analyzing preliminary cases, particular emphasis will be placed on 1) documenting the evolution of the rain drop size distribution (DSD) as a function of column melting processes and 2) assessing the impact of range on ground‐based polarimetric radar estimates of DSD properties.

Carey, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2017

Contributions of Mixed-Phase Clouds to Reduced Arctic Amplification

Earth’s Arctic is particularly sensitive to global warming. The climate record shows that Arctic changes in surface temperatures far exceed that of the global mean, a phenomenon referred to as Arctic amplification. Here, we show that warming of the Arctic atmosphere causes mixed-phase clouds in the region to contain less ice and more supercooled liquid, which in turn tends to increase their amount and thick- ness, thereby inducing a positive feedback mainly by increasing downward longwave (LW) radiation at the surface. The increased downward LW radiation decreases the positive lapse rate feedback in the Arctic, thus resulting in reduced Arctic amplification. The strength of this feedback depends on the initial mean-state supercooled liquid fraction (SLF) and the ice crystal effective radii. We also show that reduced precipitation rates can result from large mean-state ice effective radii being replaced by relatively more smaller liquid droplets in the cloud phase feedback, despite having high mean-state SLFs, demonstrating the importance of the representation of cloud microphysics in the Arctic.

Tan, Ivy↗

NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A cloud model-radiative model combination for determining microwave TB-rain rate relations

The development of a cloud model-radiative transfer model combination for computing average brightness temperature, T(B), is discussed. The cloud model and radiative transfer model used in this study are described. The relations between rain rate, cloud and rain water, cloud and precipitation ice, and upwelling radiance are investigated. The effects of the rain rate relations on T(B) under different climatological conditions are examined. The model-derived T(B) results are compared to the 92 and 183 GHz aircraft observations of Hakkarinen and Adler (1984, 1986) and the radar-estimated rain rate of Hakkarinen and Adler (1986); good correlation between the data is detected.

Szejwach, Gerard↗

NASA NTRS2001

Studies of Ice Nucleating Aerosol Particles in Arctic Cloud Systems

The focus of this research is to improve the understanding of ice nucleating aerosol particles (IN) and the role they play in ice formation in Arctic clouds. IN are important for global climate issues in a variety of ways. The primary effect is their role in determining the phase (liquid or solid) of cloud particles. The microscale impact is on cloud particle size, growth rate, shape, fall speed, concentration, radiative properties, and scavenging of gases and aerosols. On a larger scale, ice formation affects the development of precipitation (rate, amount, type, and distribution), latent heat release (rate and altitude), ambient humidity, the persistence of clouds, and cloud albedo. The overall goals of our FIRE 3 research are to characterize the concentrations and variability of Arctic IN during the winter-spring transition, to compare IN measurements with ice concentrations in Arctic clouds, and to examine selected IN samples for particle morphology and chemical there are distinguishable chemical signatures. The results can be combined with other measurements of aerosols, gaseous species, and cloud characteristics in order to understand the processes that determine the phase and concentration of cloud particles.

Rogers, David C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Properties of cirrus generating cells.

Particle size spectra were measured during 20 hr of sampling in cirrus generating cells (uncinus, stratus, spissatus, thunderstorm anvil) and the particle concentration, mean crystal length, ice water content, reflectivity factor, and precipitation rate were calculated from these spectra. Average values of the physical properties in the generating cells were obtained. Growth was found to be downward, reaching a maximum ice water content just below the base of the generating cell. The maximum ice water contents (not including the thunderstorm anvil) were found in cirrus uncinus. Liquid water was not found throughout the cirrus sampling by measurement with the Johnson-Williams hot-wire liquid-water meter; however, it is believed that liquid water is present as a transient phase.

Heymsfield, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Microwave (SSM/I) Estimates of the Precipitation Rate to Improve Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

Delay in the spin-up of precipitation early in numerical atmospheric forecasts is a deficiency correctable by diabatic initialization combined with diabatic forcing. For either to be effective requires some knowledge of the magnitude and vertical placement of the latent heating fields. Until recently the best source of cloud and rain water data was the remotely sensed vertical integrated precipitation rate or liquid water content. Vertical placement of the condensation remains unknown. Some information about the vertical distribution of the heating rates and precipitating liquid water and ice can be obtained from retrieval techniques that use a physical model of precipitating clouds to refine and improve the interpretation of the remotely sensed data. A description of this procedure and an examination of its 3-D liquid water products, along with improved modeling methods that enhance or speed-up storm development is discussed.

Raymond, William H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Thunderstorm Anvil Ice Contents and Other Cloud Properties from Satellite Observations of Lightning

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. The charging mechanism incorporated into the model is the non-inductive ice-ice mechanism - involving rebounding collisions between ice crystals and growing graupel pellets - which has achieved significant field, laboratory and modelling support in recent years. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it is possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. One can also estimate the ice crystal loading associated with more localized storm systems. Early results from this work will be presented, together with further work on the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Blyth, Alan M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Thunderstorm Anvil Ice Contents and Other Cloud Properties from Satellite Observations of Lightning

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it may prove possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. Early results from this work are presented, together with further studies of the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Blyth, Alan M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Diabatic forcing and intialization with assimilation of cloud water and rainwater in a forecast model

In this study, diabatic forcing, and liquid water assimilation techniques are tested in a semi-implicit hydrostatic regional forecast model containing explicit representations of grid-scale cloud water and rainwater. Diabatic forcing, in conjunction with diabatic contributions in the initialization, is found to help the forecast retain the diabatic signal found in the liquid water or heating rate data, consequently reducing the spinup time associated with grid-scale precipitation processes. Both observational Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and model-generated data are used. A physical retrieval method incorporating SSM/I radiance data is utilized to estimate the 3D distribution of precipitating storms. In the retrieval method the relationship between precipitation distributions and upwelling microwave radiances is parameterized, based upon cloud ensemble-radiative model simulations. Regression formulae relating vertically integrated liquid and ice-phase precipitation amounts to latent heating rates are also derived from the cloud ensemble simulations. Thus, retrieved SSM/I precipitation structures can be used in conjunction with the regression-formulas to infer the 3D distribution of latent heating rates. These heating rates are used directly in the forecast model to help initiate Tropical Storm Emily (21 September 1987). The 14-h forecast of Emily's development yields atmospheric precipitation water contents that compare favorably with coincident SSM/I estimates.

Raymond, William H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance: Distribution of Increased Mass Loss with Climate Warming; 2003-07 Versus 1992-2002

We derive mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) for 2003-07 from ICESat laser altimetry and compare them with results for 1992-2002 from ERS radar and airborne laser altimetry. The GIS continued to grow inland and thin at the margins during 2003 07, but surface melting and accelerated flow significantly increased the marginal thinning compared with the 1990s. The net balance changed from a small loss of 7 plus or minus 3 Gt a 1(sup -1) in the 1990s to 171 plus or minus 4 Gt a (sup -1) for 2003-07, contributing 0.5 mm a(sup -1) to recent global sea-level rise. We divide the derived mass changes into two components: (1) from changes in melting and ice dynamics and (2) from changes in precipitation and accumulation rate. We use our firn compaction model to calculate the elevation changes driven by changes in both temperature and accumulation rate and to calculate the appropriate density to convert the accumulation-driven changes to mass changes. Increased losses from melting and ice dynamics (17-206 Gt a(sup-1) are over seven times larger than increased gains from precipitation (10 35 Gt a(sup-1) during a warming period of approximately 2 K (10 a)(sup -1) over the GIS. Above 2000m elevation, the rate of gain decreased from 44 to 28 Gt a(sup-1), while below 2000m the rate of loss increased from 51 to 198 Gt a(sup-1). Enhanced thinning below the equilibrium line on outlet glaciers indicates that increased melting has a significant impact on outlet glaciers, as well as accelerating ice flow. Increased thinning at higher elevations appears to be induced by dynamic coupling to thinning at the margins on decadal timescales.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS1979

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Kallen, E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Use of High-resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of recent forecast models such as WRF, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Six-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data yield the most realistic simulations. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics are employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, William E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

Goodman, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗