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Conclusions: certain data-driven models do implicitly what physics simulations do explicitly; theoretical underpinnings in Koopman theory, delay-coordinate embeddings, and Mori-Zwanzig formalism; best approach for given system with finite data an open question; physics-informed machine learning (PIML) emerging framework for combining explicit and implicit modeling.
Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g.,having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound [1]. However, the approach in [1] requires a pathwise sampling path to compute the gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise sampling path is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this work, we propose a hybrid gradient approach that leverages recent advances in variational MI estimator and evolution strategies (ES)combined with black-box stochastic gradient ascent (SGA) to maximize the MI lower bound. This allows the design process to be achieved through a unified scalable procedure for implicit models without sampling path gradients. Several experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the scalability of BED for implicit models in high-dimensional design space.
Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.
Geomagnetic disturbances can greatly disrupt the power grid operation. This is caused by low-frequency changes in the earth’s magnetic field, which upon interaction with the deep earth conductivity induces a changing electric field at the earth’s surface. This in turn induces quasi-direct currents which have the potential to cause protective devices to operate, widespread damage to high-voltage transformers, or voltage collapse due to induced reactive power losses. While these impacts have been known since the 1940s, only recently have standards for GMD response been implemented. Because these standards are heavily based on models, it is important to understand when it is appropriate to make certain modeling assumptions. In this work, implicit modeling uncertainty is quantified for the purpose of enhanced decision making for disturbance impact mitigation. Considering electromagnetic models, modeling assumptions of non-uniform grounding, imbalanced operation, transformer saturation, and geomagnetically induced currents, voltage estimation values are analyzed. Statistical characteristics of modeling uncertainty are obtained by analysis of synthetically generated data. Results statistically characterize geomagnetic disturbances modeling uncertainty, providing an important tool for impact mitigation.
Implicit solvent models are a computationally efficient method of representing solid/liquid interfaces prevalent in electrocatalysis, energy storage, and materials science. However, electronic structure changes induced at the metallic surface by the dielectric continuum are not fully understood. To address this, we perform DFT calculations for the Pt(111)/water interface, in order to compare Poisson–Boltzmann continuum solvation methods with ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of explicit solvent. We show that the implicit solvent cavity can be parametrized in terms of the electric dipole moment change at the equilibrated explicit Pt/water interface to obtain the potential of zero charge (PZC). We also compare the accuracy of aqueous enthalpies of adsorption of phenol on Pt(111) using geometry and charge density based dielectric cavitation methods. The ability to parametrize the cavity according to individual atoms, as afforded in the geometry based approach, is key to obtaining accurate enthalpy changes of adsorption under aqueous conditions. Additionally, we show that the electronic structure changes induced by explicit solvent and our proposed implicit solvent parametrization scheme yield comparable density difference profiles and d-band projected density of states. We therefore demonstrate the capability of implicit solvent approaches to capture both the energetics of adsorption processes and the main electronic effects of aqueous solvent on the metallic surface. Therefore, this work provides a scheme for computationally efficient simulations of interfacial processes for applications in areas such as heterogeneous catalysis and electrochemistry.
Calculating the hydration free energy of a macromolecule in all-atom simulations has long remained a challenge, necessitating the use of models wherein the effect of the solvent is captured without explicit account of solvent degrees of freedom. This situation has changed with developments in the molecular quasi-chemical theory (QCT)-an approach that enables calculation of the hydration free energy of macromolecules within all-atom simulations at the same resolution as is possible for small molecular solutes. The theory also provides a rigorous and physically transparent framework to conceptualize and model interactions in molecular solutions and thus provides a convenient framework to investigate the assumptions in implicit solvent models. In this study, we compare the results using molecular QCT versus predictions from EEF1, ABSINTH, and GB/SA implicit solvent models for polyglycine and polyalanine solutes covering a range of chain lengths and conformations. The hydration free energies or the differences in hydration free energies between conformers obtained from the implicit solvent models do not agree with explicit solvent results, with the deviations being largest for the group additive EEF1 and ABSINTH models. GB/SA does better in capturing the qualitative trends seen in explicit solvent results. Finally, analysis founded on QCT reveals the critical importance of the cooperativity of hydration that is inherent in the hydrophilic and hydrophobic contributions to hydration-physics that is not well captured in additive models but somewhat better accounted for by means of a dielectric in the GB/SA approach.
Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.
Machine-learning prediction algorithms such as AlphaFold and RoseTTAFold can create remarkably accurate protein models, but these models usually have some regions that are predicted with low confidence or poor accuracy. We hypothesized that by implicitly including new experimental information such as a density map, a greater portion of a model could be predicted accurately, and that this might synergistically improve parts of the model that were not fully addressed by either machine learning or experiment alone. An iterative procedure was developed in which AlphaFold models are automatically rebuilt on the basis of experimental density maps and the rebuilt models are used as templates in new AlphaFold predictions. We show that including experimental information improves prediction beyond the improvement obtained with simple rebuilding guided by the experimental data. This procedure for AlphaFold modeling with density has been incorporated into an automated procedure for interpretation of crystallographic and electron cryo-microscopy maps.
The main goal of this project is to develop a multi-scale modeling approach that connects micron-scale phase-field models and atomic-scale density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations via parameter- and relationship-passing in order to predict Li-metal dendrite morphology evolution, in both liquid and solid electrolytes. The key hypothesis of the DFT-informed phase-field multiscale modeling approach is that it can capture the electrochemical-mechanical driving forces and incorporate the roles of nano-meter-thin solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) in liquid electrolytes as well as of the microstructures of micro-meter-thick solid electrolytes (SEs) for all-solid-state batteries. In this project, we have formulated and implemented phase-field models to incorporate the electrochemical driving forces in liquid electrolytes and then incorporate mechanical driving forces to simulate dendrite growth in solid electrolytes with resolved microstructures. We have implemented two treatments for the SEI: an explicit model to include the microstructure of the SE or SEI in the phase field model and an implicit model to simulate the impact of nano-meter thick SEI in liquid electrolytes by varying the electrode/electrolyte interfacial properties. The key interfacial properties, including the electronic and ionic transport properties, the charge transfer reaction kinetics, and mechanical properties, were computed by DFT-based calculations. At the DFT-based model, one key advancement is to directly predict the charge transfer reaction kinetics at a complex Li/SEI/electrolyte interface by linking DFT with density functional tight binding (DFTB) calculations. As the main accomplishments, we have demonstrated two successful predictions in both solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte based on this multiscale approach. The predicted intergranular Li dendrite growth in LLZO revealed the importance of trapped electrons at internal interfaces in the microstructure of LLZO. The predicted electroplating morphology of mossy Li and faceted Mg agreed well with experiments. The insights provided by the multiscale model and the model enabled electrolyte and SEI design will accelerate the development of Li-metal electrode for high energy density batteries, that meet DOE’s target on cell density (>350 Wh/kg) and cost below $100/kWhuse for EV applications.
Variable-density cellular structures can overcome connectivity and manufacturability issues of topologically optimized structures, particularly those represented as discrete density maps. However, the optimization of such cellular structures is challenging due to the multiscale design problem. Past work addressing this problem generally either only optimizes the volume fraction of single-type unit cells but ignoring the effects of unit cell geometry on properties, or considers the geometry–property relation but builds this relation via heuristics. In contrast, we propose a simple yet more principled way to accurately model the property to geometry mapping using a conditional deep generative model, named Inverse Homogenization Generative Adversarial Network (IH-GAN). It learns the conditional distribution of unit cell geometries given properties and can realize the one-to-many mapping from properties to geometries. Here we further reduce the complexity of IH-GAN by using the implicit function parameterization to represent unit cell geometries. Results show that our method can 1) generate various unit cells that satisfy given material properties with high accuracy (R 2 -scores between target properties and properties of generated unit cells >98%) and 2) improve the optimized structural performance over the conventional variable-density single-type structure. In the minimum compliance example, our IH-GAN generated structure achieves a 79.7% reduction in concentrated stress and an extra 3.03% reduction in displacement. In the target deformation examples, our IH-GAN generated structure reduces the target matching error by 86.4% and 79.6% for two test cases, respectively. We also demonstrated that the connectivity issue for multi-type unit cells can be solved by transition layer blending.
Prediction of 2D cross-section and full 3D geometry for stacked weld beads is critical for the outcome of wire-arc directed energy deposition (DED) parts; however, most additive path planning software packages model beads as extrusions of a rectangle. Weld beads are not rectangular, and the resulting shape is dependent upon physics effects at the moment of deposition. Physics phenomena such as the geometry of the underlying surface, the heat input of the welding mode, and the direction of gravity contribute to bead shape. Here, this paper presents a novel implicit modeling method that discretizes a 2D area or 3D volume of space into pixels or voxels and constructs fields based on these physics phenomena. The fields are combined using a weighting scheme trained on 3D scan measurements of welds and wire-arc DED prints. Pixels or voxels are added until the known amount of deposited volume has been achieved. Thereby, a strong conservation of mass principle is applied to the process. Utilizing machine learning techniques, the present model can be trained on a database of scans allowing for the representation of a wide variety of prints. Results show that this method can produce predictions with realistic bead morphology and sub-millimeter form error.
This errata is to correct the acknowledgment in the original published article. G.B. (partial support), V.-A.G., M.-T.N., and R.R. were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences, Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences Division. Computer resources were provided by Research Computing at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science User Facility operated under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. PNNL is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. G.B. acknowledges the EPSRC for partial support in PhD funding. The authors acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility (IRIDIS 5) and associated support services at the University of Southampton in the completion of this work. We are grateful to the UK Materials and Molecular Modeling Hub (Thomas HPC) for computational resources, which is partially funded by EPSRC (EP/P020194/1).
Abstract not provided.
Abstract Only a subset of degrees of freedom are typically accessible or measurable in real-world systems. As a consequence, the proper setting for empirical modeling is that of partially-observed systems. Notably, data-driven models consistently outperform physics-based models for systems with few observable degrees of freedom; e.g. hydrological systems. Here, we provide an operator-theoretic explanation for this empirical success. To predict a partially-observed system’s future behavior with physics-based models, the missing degrees of freedom must be explicitly accounted for using data assimilation and model parametrization. Data-driven models, in contrast, employ delay-coordinate embeddings and their evolution under the Koopman operator to implicitly model the effects of the missing degrees of freedom. We describe in detail the statistical physics of partial observations underlying data-driven models using novel maximum entropy and maximum caliber measures. The resulting nonequilibrium Wiener projections applied to the Mori–Zwanzig formalism reveal how data-driven models may converge to the true dynamics of the observable degrees of freedom. Additionally, this framework shows how data-driven models infer the effects of unobserved degrees of freedom implicitly, in much the same way that physics models infer the effects explicitly. This provides a unified implicit-explicit modeling framework for predicting partially-observed systems, with hybrid physics-informed machine learning methods combining both implicit and explicit aspects.
With nanoparticles (NPs) as fillers, polymer nanocomposites (PNCs) usually exhibit enhanced mechanical properties. However, a direct connection between the microscopic structural relaxation and macroscopic mechanical properties of PNCs remains to be established. To investigate the micro-to-macro connection, we develop a mesoscale model, in which the NPbridging polymer chains are represented by a dynamic bonded interaction between NPs, and the bulk polymer matrix is implicitly modeled by overdamped Langevin dynamics. Extensive equilibrium simulations are performed to quantify the microscopic dynamics of model PNCs. Systematic analyses of modified Rouse dynamics, dynamic structure factor, and relaxation modulus uncover that the microscopic relaxation dynamics of PNCs are significantly decelerated across different length scales because of nonlocal effects of percolated particle networks a phenomenon that has not been adequately captured in prior simulation studies. We find that NPvolume- fraction and NP-bonding-energy barrier are the two critical variables that affect bulk viscoelasticity the most. The proposed mesoscale model is versatile and provides a powerful framework for studying structure−property relations of different PNCs.
Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.
Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.
In vitro directed evolution techniques, such as mRNA display, enable peptide ligand discovery and optimization. However, physical libraries that rely on a genetic code can only search a small fraction of sequence space due to inherent biases in the genetic code and experimental limitations. To address this challenge, denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIMs) are applied to generate novel peptide ligands against B‐cell lymphoma extra‐large (Bcl‐x L ), a key cancer target. Starting with high‐throughput sequencing data from previous selections, a DDIM is trained to produce novel sequences with high affinity binding. Experimental validation confirms that most generated sequences are functionally equivalent to the original library members for Bcl‐x L binding and demonstrated comparable binding kinetics and affinity relative to the wildtype and nearest original neighbors. Importantly, this approach generated rare sequences not easily accessible via mutation and directed evolution. These results indicate that DDIMs can complement and expand directed evolution data, efficiently exploring underrepresented regions of sequence space. This approach provides a broadly applicable framework for accelerating ligand discovery and optimizing molecular properties across diverse targets.