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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing High-Throughput Inference on Graph Neural Networks at Shared Computing Facilities with the NVIDIA Triton Inference Server

Abstract With machine learning applications now spanning a variety of computational tasks, multi-user shared computing facilities are devoting a rapidly increasing proportion of their resources to such algorithms. Graph neural networks (GNNs), for example, have provided astounding improvements in extracting complex signatures from data and are now widely used in a variety of applications, such as particle jet classification in high energy physics (HEP). However, GNNs also come with an enormous computational penalty that requires the use of GPUs to maintain reasonable throughput. At shared computing facilities, such as those used by physicists at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), methodical resource allocation and high throughput at the many-user scale are key to ensuring that resources are being used as efficiently as possible. These facilities, however, primarily provide CPU-only nodes, which proves detrimental to time-to-insight and computational throughput for workflows that include machine learning inference. In this work, we describe how a shared computing facility can use the NVIDIA Triton Inference Server to optimize its resource allocation and computing structure, recovering high throughput while scaling out to multiple users by massively parallelizing their machine learning inference. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this system in a realistic multi-user environment, we use the Fermilab Elastic Analysis Facility augmented with the Triton Inference Server to provide scalable and high-throughput access to a HEP-specific GNN and report on the outcome.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cataloging the visible universe through Bayesian inference in Julia at petascale

A key task in astronomy is to locate astronomical objects in images and to characterize them according to physical parameters such as brightness, color, and morphology. This task, known as cataloging, is challenging for several reasons: many astronomical objects are much dimmer than the sky background, labeled data is generally unavailable, overlapping astronomical objects must be resolved collectively, and the datasets are enormous – terabytes now, petabytes soon. In this work, we infer an astronomical catalog from 55 TB of imaging data using Celeste, a Bayesian variational inference code written entirely in the high-productivity programming language Julia. Using over 1.3 million threads on 650,000 Intel Xeon Phi cores of the Cori Phase II supercomputer, Celeste achieves a peak rate of 1.54 DP PFLOP/s. Celeste is able to jointly optimize parameters for 188 M stars and galaxies, loading and processing 178 TB across 8192 nodes in 14.6 min. To achieve this, Celeste exploits parallelism at multiple levels (cluster, node, and thread) and accelerates I/O through Cori’s burst buffer. Julia’s native performance enables Celeste to employ high-level constructs without resorting to hand-written or generated low-level code (C/C++/Fortran) while still achieving petascale performance.

Regier, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2025

LLM-Inference-Bench: Inference Benchmarking of Large Language Models on AI Accelerators

Large Language Models (LLMs) have propelled groundbreaking advancements across several domains and are commonly used for text generation applications. However, the computational demands of these complex models pose significant challenges, requiring efficient hardware acceleration. Benchmarking the performance of LLMs across diverse hardware platforms is crucial to understanding their scalability and throughput characteristics. We introduce LLM-Inference-Bench, a comprehensive benchmarking suite to evaluate the hardware inference performance of LLMs. We thoroughly analyze diverse hardware platforms, including GPUs from Nvidia and AMD and specialized AI accelerators, Intel Habana and SambaNova. Our evaluation includes several LLM inference frameworks and models from LLaMA, Mistral, and Qwen families with 7B and 70B parameters. Our benchmarking results reveal the strengths and limitations of various models, hardware platforms, and inference frameworks. We provide an interactive dashboard to help identify configurations for optimal performance for a given hardware platform.

Chitty-Venkata, Krishna Teja↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian inference for heterogeneous caprock permeability based on above zone pressure monitoring

The presence of faults/ fractures or highly permeable zones in the primary sealing caprock of a CO2 storage reservoir can result in leakage of CO2. Monitoring of leakage requires the capability to detect and resolve the onset, location, and volume of leakage in a systematic and timely manner. Pressure-based monitoring possesses such capabilities. This study demonstrates a basis for monitoring network design based on the characterization of CO2 leakage scenarios through an assessment of the integrity and permeability of the caprock inferred from above zone pressure measurements. Four representative heterogeneous fractured seal types are characterized to demonstrate seal permeability ranging from highly permeable to impermeable. Based on Bayesian classification theory, the probability of each fractured caprock scenario given above zone pressure measurements with measurement error is inferred. The sensitivity to injection rate and caprock thickness is also evaluated and the probability of proper classification is calculated. The time required to distinguish between above zone pressure outcomes and the associated leakage scenarios is also computed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2 /O 2 -mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the given summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. Validation on simulations

Beyond-two-point statistics contain additional information on cosmological as well as astrophysical and observational (systematics) parameters. In this methodology paper we provide an end-to-end simulationbased analysis of a set of Gaussian and non-Gaussian weak lensing statistics using detailed mock catalogs of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Here, we implement: 1) second and third moments; 2) wavelet phase harmonics (WPH); 3) the scattering transform (ST). Our analysis is fully based on simulations, it spans a space of seven $νw$CDM cosmological parameters, and it forward models the most relevant sources of systematics of the data (masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration). We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a likelihood-free-inference approach. We validate the pipeline extensively, and we find that WPH exhibits the strongest performance when combined with second moments, followed by ST, and then by third moments. The combination of all the different statistics further enhances constraints with respect to second moments, up to 25 percent, 15 percent, and 90 percent for S 8 , Ω m , and the figure-of-merit FoM S8;Ωm , respectively. We further find that non-Gaussian statistics improve constraints on w and on the amplitude of intrinsic alignment with respect to second moments constraints. The methodological advances presented here are suitable for application to Stage IV surveys from Euclid, Rubin-LSST, and Roman with additional validation on mock catalogs for each survey. In a companion paper we present an application to DES Year 3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. II. cosmological results

Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤⁢ CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ ⁢CDM) and 90% (𝑤 ⁢CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ⁢ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 ⁢CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ ⁢CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤⁢ CDM). In the context of the 𝑤⁢ CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2⁢𝜎.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Importance of Preventive Feedback: Inference from Observations of the Stellar Masses and Metallicities of Milky Way Dwarf Galaxies

Dwarf galaxies are known to have remarkably low star formation efficiency due to strong feedback. Adopting the dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) as a laboratory, we explore a flexible semi-analytic galaxy formation model to understand how the feedback processes shape the satellite galaxies of the MW. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we exhaustively search a large parameter space of the model and rigorously show that the general wisdom of strong outflows as the primary feedback mechanism cannot simultaneously explain the stellar mass function and the mass–metallicity relation of the MW satellites. An extended model that assumes that a fraction of baryons is prevented from collapsing into low-mass halos in the first place can be accurately constrained to simultaneously reproduce those observations. The inference suggests that two different physical mechanisms are needed to explain the two different data sets. In particular, moderate outflows with weak halo mass dependence are needed to explain the mass–metallicity relation, and prevention of baryons falling into shallow gravitational potentials of low-mass halos (e.g., “pre-heating”) is needed to explain the low stellar mass fraction for a given subhalo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Inferring Geothermal Reservoir Processes at the Raft River Geothermal Field, Idaho, USA, Through Modeling InSAR-Measured Surface Deformation

Ground surface deformations detected with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) provide valuable information for inferring subsurface reservoir processes that are difficult to observe directly. This study aims at building a reservoir model that honors the available geological, hydrological and geo-mechanical data and also produces ground surface deformation consistent with InSAR measurements at the Raft River Geothermal Field. In the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) coupled model developed, the reservoir deforms as a result of the rock’s poroelastic response to changes in hydrologic pressure and thermal expansion/contraction. The results indicate that the observed deformation is the result of pressure decrease in the deep production reservoir and pressure increase in a shallower reservoir that accommodates the injected fluid (likely in the Salt Lake Formation). The combination of the uplift around injection wells with subsidence around the production wells, affected by the Bridge Fault as a flow barrier, creates a complex pattern of surface deformation in which the center of subtle subsidence significantly deviates from the location of the production wells. A parametric study suggests that (1) the Bridge Fault Zone is likely a flow barrier, (2) the surface deformation appears to be insensitive to the presence of the Narrows Structure, and (3) additional flow barriers likely exist to shape the flow system. This case study demonstrates the utility of a high-fidelity forward model that honors available known information and THM coupled processes in understanding geothermal reservoir characteristics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Inferring the source of evaporated waters using stable H and O isotopes

Stable isotope ratios of H and O are widely used to identify the source of water, e.g., in aquifers, river runoff, soils, plant xylem, and plant-based beverages. In situations where the sampled water is partially evaporated, its isotope values will have evolved along an evaporation line (EL) in δ 2 H/δ 18 O space, and back-correction along the EL to its intersection with a meteoric water line (MWL) has been used to estimate the source water’s isotope ratios. Here, we review the theory underlying isotopic estimation of source water for evaporated samples (iSW E ). We note potential for bias from a commonly used regression-based approach for EL slope estimation and suggest that a model-based approach may be preferable if assumptions of the regression approach are not valid. We then introduce a mathematical framework that eliminates the need to explicitly estimate the EL–MWL intersection, simplifying iSW E analysis and facilitating more rigorous uncertainty estimation. We apply this approach to data from the US EPA's 2007 National Lakes Assessment. We find that data for most lakes are consistent with a water source similar to annual runoff, estimated from monthly precipitation and evaporation within the lake basin. Strong evidence for both summer- and winter-biased sources exists, however, with winter bias pervasive in most snow-prone regions. Furthermore, the new analytical framework should improve the rigor of iSW E in ecohydrology and related sciences, and our initial results from US lakes suggest that previous interpretations of lakes as unbiased isotope integrators may only be valid in certain climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗