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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical study of implosion instability mitigation in magnetically driven solid liner dynamic screw pinches

Magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments on the Z accelerator suffer from magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities (MRTI) that compromise integrity of the imploding cylindrical liner, limiting achievable fusion fuel conditions and ultimately reducing magneto-inertial fusion target performance. Dynamic screw pinches (DSP) provide a method to reduce MRTI in-flight via application of magnetic field line tension to the imploding liner outer surface. In contrast with z-pinches that drive implosions with an azimuthal magnetic field, dynamic screw pinches enforce an additional axial drive magnetic field component, making the overall drive magnetic field helical. As the liner implodes, cumulative MRTI development is reduced by dynamically shifting the orientation of the fastest growing instability modes. Three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations show that the DSP mechanism effectively stabilizes initially solid cylindrical liner implosions driven by Z-scale current pulses, indicating that MRTI mitigation increases with the ratio of axial to azimuthal drive magnetic field components (i.e., the drive field ratio). We also performed a spectral analysis of the simulated imploding density distributions, extracting wavelength and pitch angle of the simulated MRTI structures to study their dynamics during the implosion. Simulations of liners initially perturbed with drive-field-aligned sinusoidal structures indicate that MRTI mitigation in DSP implosions decreases with perturbation wavelength, once again suggestive of magnetic field line tension effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Reinforcement Learning (ARL) Control of a Multi-port Resonant Converter in UAV Systems

This study presents an adaptive reinforcement learning (ARL) control framework for a multi-port resonant converter used in hybrid unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) power systems. The converter integrates high-frequency half-bridge input ports connected to a rectified engine–generator set and a battery energy storage system, along with a semi-bridgeless active rectifier supplying the propulsion load. A deep RL agent is trained to dynamically regulate inter-port phase-shift commands in real time based on flight conditions and load power demand. The ARL controller autonomously identifies phase-shift combinations that maximize conversion efficiency while maintaining stable and coordinated power flow, even under rapidly varying operating scenarios. This data-driven approach eliminates the need for explicit system modeling or extensive manual tuning and enables coordinated control among multiple power ports without inter-port communication. Experimental results validate that the ARL based strategy achieves reliable power sharing and consistently high-efficiency operation across diverse UAV operating conditions.

Asa, Erdem [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000190884812)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated simulations of premagnetized and self-magnetizing dynamic screw pinch-driven MagLIF

Magnetically driven implosions such as in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) on the Z accelerator suffer from magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities (MRTI) that dynamically redistribute liner mass during implosion, limiting fusion fuel compression and confinement, which ultimately degrades performance. Driving the implosion with an initially helical drive field that dynamically shifts the direction of the magnetic field surrounding the liner (i.e., a dynamic screw pinch, DSP) is a method proposed to mitigate MRTI in-flight and improve target performance. In DSPs, the axial drive magnetic field component implodes the liner and diffuses through the shocked, melted liner material into the fuel throughout the implosion. Liners can be designed to enable enough axial magnetic flux to diffuse through the liner material to effectively magnetize the fuel region without the need of an initial axial magnetic field (i.e., from external field coils). We present results from three-dimensional radiation-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of MagLIF implosions employing drive magnetic fields composed of axial and azimuthal components (a helical drive field). These simulated DSP-driven MagLIF targets demonstrate improved fuel conditions and thermonuclear yield compared to a traditional MagLIF target implosion. Synthetic x-ray radiography of the imploding liner material and x-ray emission images of the fuel region at the time of peak neutron yield rate indicate superior implosion morphology for DSP-MagLIF implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

In situ , in vivo , and in operando imaging and spectroscopy of liquids using microfluidics in vacuum

This review offers a succinct overview of the development of a vacuum-compatible microfluidic reactor system for analysis at the liquid vacuum interface (SALVI), and its diverse applications in in situ, in vivo, and in operando imaging of liquid surfaces as well as the air-liquid (a-l), liquid-liquid (l-l), and solid-liquid (s-l) interfaces in the past decade. SALVI is one of the first microfluidics-based reactors that has enabled direct analysis of volatile liquids in vacuum surface tools such as scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). Its integration into ambient and vacuum spectroscopy and microscopy is illustrated. Several applications are highlighted including (1) imaging nanoparticles in liquid using in situ SEM; (2) mapping the evolving l-l interface using in situ x-ray absorption spectroscopy and ToF-SIMS; (3) following complex a-l interfacial oxidation reaction products using in situ ToF-SIMS; (4) capturing biological interfaces of cells and microbes via in vivo multimodal and correlative imaging; and (5) monitoring the dynamic solid electrode and liquid electrolyte interface using in operando molecular imaging. Finally, outlook and recommendations are presented. Besides showing the holistic information volume obtained by real-time multiplexed imaging, this review intends to convey the importance of tool development in revolutionizing surface and interface analysis using vacuum platforms previously limited to solid surfaces. Microfluidics is manifested to be not limited to ambient conditions in many examples in this review. Moreover, fundamental interfacial phenomena underpinning mass and charge transfer can now be pursued in real time via innovated chemical imaging and spectroscopy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

CROCUS Air Quality Dataset from the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), July 2024

This dataset was collected by the measurement system in the Atmosphere, Climate, and Ecosystems (ACE) Lab at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) from July 12 to July 31, 2024, as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project, led by Argonne National Laboratory.To enhance understanding of urban air quality dynamics in Chicago, and as part of the CROCUS 2024 Urban Canyon Intensive Observation Period (IOP), several instruments were set up to provide continuous measurements of air quality parameters in Chicago during July 2024. These measurements cover both aerosols and gas-phase species. It focuses on particle size distribution (2.5–478 nm) measured by two Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers (SMPS) at a 4-min resolution, total particle number concentrations at a 1-s resolution, and chemical composition from a High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) at a 1-min resolution. Key gas-phase species, including NO, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃, are measured at a 1-min resolution, along with high-resolution NO and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) data from a Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS). Volatile organic compound (VOC) data for toluene, isoprene, and benzene are provided by a GC-PID with a time resolution of 25 minutes.The data are formatted as NetCDF (.nc) files, making them easily accessible using common software such as MATLAB, R, and Python. Each parameter is stored in an individual dataset, which includes detailed instrument information in the header, as well as the corresponding sample start time and concentration/distribution data for each sample.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) airborne field campaign data products between 2013 and 2018

Airborne measurements are pivotal for providing detailed, spatiotemporally resolved information about atmospheric parameters and aerosol and cloud properties, thereby enhancing our understanding of dynamic atmospheric processes. For 30 years, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated dataset was recently developed covering the final 6 years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018, https://doi.org/10.5439/1999133; Mei and Gaustad, 2024). The integrated dataset includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 h), which covered the Arctic, the US Southern Great Plains (SGP), the US West Coast, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA), the Amazon Basin in Brazil, and the Sierras de Córdoba range in Argentina. These comprehensive data streams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability in the thermodynamic quantities and aerosol and cloud properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies. This paper describes the DOE ARM merged G-1 datasets, including information on the acquisition, data collection challenges and future potentials, and quality control processes. It further illustrates the usage of this merged dataset to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) with the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating ytopt and libEnsemble to autotune OpenMC

Ytopt is a Python machine-learning-based autotuning software package developed within the ECP PROTEAS-TUNE project. The ytopt software adopts an asynchronous search framework that consists of sampling a small number of input parameter configurations and progressively fitting a surrogate model over the input-output space until exhausting the user-defined maximum number of evaluations or the wall-clock time. libEnsemble is a Python toolkit for coordinating workflows of asynchronous and dynamic ensembles of calculations across massively parallel resources developed within the ECP PETSc/TAO project. libEnsemble helps users take advantage of massively parallel resources to solve design, decision, and inference problems and expands the class of problems that can benefit from increased parallelism. In this paper we present our methodology and framework to integrate ytopt and libEnsemble to take advantage of massively parallel resources to accelerate the autotuning process. Specifically, we focus on using the proposed framework to autotune the ECP ExaSMR application OpenMC, an open source Monte Carlo particle transport code. OpenMC has seven tunable parameters some of which have large ranges such as the number of particles in-flight, which is in the range of 100,000 to 8 million, with its default setting of 1 million. Setting the proper combination of these parameter values to achieve the best performance is extremely time-consuming. Therefore, we apply the proposed framework to autotune the MPI/OpenMP offload version of OpenMC based on a user-defined metric such as the figure of merit (FoM) (particles/s) or energy efficiency energy-delay product (EDP) on Crusher at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. In conclusion, the experimental results show that we achieve the improvement up to 29.49% in FoM and up to 30.44% in EDP.

Autotuning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetostrictive Ultrasonic Waveguide Transducer for In-Pile Thermometry

Real-time and reliable temperature measurement on nuclear fuels is crucial for the safe operation of existing pressurized-water reactors and future advanced nuclear reactors. Magnetostrictive materials deform when subjected to a magnetic field or exhibit magnetization variation when stressed. Here, based on these properties, this study prototyped an ultrasonic thermometer (UT) consisting of a magnetostrictive waveguide, a dc coil providing appropriate magnetic biasing, and an ac coil generating an acoustic impulse and detecting the resulting acoustic echoes. By tracking the time of flight between the excitation pulse and the echoes, the UT can potentially detect nuclear fuel cladding temperature from a long distance. In this study, magnetostrictive iron–gallium alloys, or Galfenol, were selected as the waveguide due to their large magnetostriction, superior temperature survivability, excellent radiation resilience, and high mechanical robustness. A multiphysics finite-element model considering electrical, magnetic, and mechanical dynamics in the magnetostrictive UT was then developed. The model exhibited an error of 0.24% in time-of-flight simulation and, therefore, enabled computer-aided design and guided signal processing. Between room temperature and 120 °C, the new Galfenol-based UT exhibits a linear sensitivity of 162.8×10 ₋6 °C ₋1 , which is 51.7% higher than a previous magnetostrictive UT based on iron–cobalt–vanadium alloys.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bounded motion design in the Earth zonal problem using differential algebra based normal form methods

Establishing long-term relative bounded motion between orbits in perturbed dynamics is a key challenge in astrodynamics to enable cluster flight with minimum propellant expenditure. Herein, we present an approach that allows for the design of long-term relative bounded motion considering a zonal gravitational model. Entire sets of orbits are obtained via high-order Taylor expansions of Poincarè return maps about reference fixed points. The high-order normal form algorithm is used to determine a change in expansion variables of the map into normal form space, in which the phase space behavior is circular and can be easily parameterized by action–angle coordinates. The action–angle representation of the normal form coordinates is then used to parameterize the original Poincarè return map and average it over a full phase space revolution by a path integral along the angle parameterization. As a result, the averaged nodal period and drift in the ascending node are obtained, for which the bounded motion conditions are straightforwardly imposed. Sets of highly accurate bounded orbits are obtained, extending over several thousand kilometers, and valid for decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Air Blast Mesh Sensitivity and Pressure Mapping Study

Nose cone structural and aerodynamic characteristics are essential for intelligent design of aircraft, spacecraft, and ballistic systems. Finite element analysis can be used to help understand the structural integrity and flight characteristics of different nose cones. A mesh sensitivity study was undertaken for a particular nose cone geometry that was used in tests at LANL facilities in order to confirm the integrity of the meshed geometry. A simple cone that best matched closed-form theoretical solutions was modeled, and received good correlation to the theory. Complexity was then added back to the nose cone. Parameters applied to the simple cone were then implemented in the nose cone geometry giving assurance of accuracy after the geometry was changed. Nose cone results averaged 6.3% error for radial displacement when compared with the theoretical. Hoop stress averaged 6.0% error and meridional stress averaged 5.7% error at the finest mesh level. Meshes showed signs of convergence when compared to all three theoretical solutions. Finally, pressure time-history data from LANL computational fluid dynamics simulations was applied to the surface of the final nose cone geometry. The pressure data was interpolated from pressure gauge locations onto nearby meshed elements, which allowed for FEA software to run simulations on the cone with the pressure data as a loading condition. The pressure mapping resulted in the ability to understand the nose cone’s rigid body motion that in turn can inform design of future nose cones.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Proliferated Resilient Economical Half-Meter Aperture Space Telescopes (PREEMPT)

The PREEMPT LDRD was motivated by a major national need for better space-based imaging systems that are both high performing and affordable for the US Government. Current optical payloads for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and space domain awareness (SDA) missions can cost hundreds of millions of dollars and take years to develop, which makes it difficult to build the large constellations required for persistent, world-wide coverage. To address this, the team aimed to advance a different kind of large-aperture (>25 cm) telescope, called a monolithic telescope, in which key optical surfaces are built into a single piece of fused silica. This design greatly reduces payload and spacecraft complexity, the need for precision focus actuators, improves mechanical and thermal robustness, and lowers cost when compared with traditional Cassegrain telescopes that rely on many precisely aligned components. The project focused on five primary thrusts. The first thrust was to advance the concept of a V10, 25 cm, monolithic telescope forward from optical design to flight-ready stage. This was accomplished in partnership with Optimax, who delivered the first test unit in the early stages of the LDRD. The team developed several technologies necessary for this optic to be integrated into a flight demonstration. These include carbon fiber housings, highly detailed structural and thermal models and stress-reducing elastic averaging Hirth groove designs. These technologies resulted in a successful maturation of the optic, which is now slated to fly in late 2026/early 2027 for a demonstration mission. The second thrust was to advance the manufacturability of these optics. In collaboration with NIF’s optical manufacturing shop, we reduced polishing time from 480 hours to 65 hours through the implementation of optimized processes and new tools. The NIF team utilized a conceptual V8 (18 cm) optic to demonstrate this optimization, though it can be applied to the rest of the monolithic optic portfolio. Third, the team developed the first conceptual V20 (50 cm) payload, which is slated to be the next generation of LLNL optical payload systems. A set of structural, dynamic and thermal simulations were performed to identify potential challenges in the future development of this payload. Early-stage simulations suggest the payload is feasible, though thermal management will be the key focus area to maintain optimal performance. Fourth, a non-linear model of Viton was developed, to further enhance the reliability of our structural and dynamic models for future payloads. Viton acts as the primary interface material between the optic and its housing. Lastly, the team focused on successfully displaying the feasibility of using additively manufactured metal composites for optical space payloads. The team successfully demonstrated layer by layer deposition of Al-SiC composites, which have highly tunable structural and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) properties. These are crucial for optical payloads because CTE mismatch is one of the causes for degraded optical performance for telescopes in orbit. Overall, the work showed that monolithic telescopes could become a practical, lower-cost path to high-resolution space imaging for both national security and scientific missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Remote sensing of planetary boundary layer from ground and space: Structure, thermodynamics, and boundary layer clouds

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a critical interface between Earth's surface and atmosphere, influencing atmospheric convection, weather patterns, and air quality. Recognized by the 2017 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Earth Science Decadal Survey as an Incubation Targeted Observable, high-quality and effective observation of the PBL has become a priority. This paper reviews surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques for characterizing PBL features, including PBL height (PBLH), boundary layer thermodynamics, turbulence, and boundary layer clouds (BLCs). These elements are treated as interconnected aspects of the PBL system, while recognizing that different instruments retrieve different physical manifestations of the PBL. The review summarizes recent advances and limitations in Micro-Pulse Lidar (MPL), Doppler lidar, Raman lidar, Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL), ceilometers, wind profilers, GNSS Radio Occultation, radar, and hyperspectral sounders. These observations help trace dynamic processes within the PBL and link PBL structure to broader weather and climate processes. The review also highlights persistent observational gaps over oceans, remote land, and polar regions, where continuous surface-based profiling is sparse. By comparing instrument capabilities, practical limitations, and interpretation issues, this review emphasizes the need for integrated remote sensing approaches and careful definition of the retrieved PBL quantities.

Boundary layer clouds↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO 2 in Ionene–Ionic Liquid Composite Membranes

Abstract Ionene – ionic liquid (IL) composites are promising materials for CO 2 separation, yet a molecular‐level understanding of their structure and its impact on CO 2 speciation, solubility, rotation, and diffusivity remains unclear. Herein, using multimodal nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we reveal that the composites contain IL‐rich domains extending across hundreds of nanometres within the ionene matrix, and these bicontinuous domains span the entire membrane depth. CO 2 also absorbs into the ionene matrix, with the distribution between two CO 2 species varying with temperature and time. The rotational correlation times of these two species are on the timescale of 0.1 and 1 ns, respectively. As IL content increases, the ionic domains expand, resulting in higher CO 2 solubility due to enhanced molecular dynamics and increased free volume in both ionene backbones and IL‐rich regions. Although CO 2 diffusion in the membranes is an order of magnitude slower than in bulk IL, the activation energy for CO 2 diffusion remains comparable. Ionene‐IL composites represent a promising platform for designing CO 2 separation membranes, offering enhanced CO 2 diffusion and selectivity through IL‐rich domains, and increased CO 2 solubility and mechanical integrity from the ionene matrix.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge‐Guided Machine Learning

Measurement of methane fluxes (FCH 4 ) from natural systems, such as wetlands, has lagged far behind carbon dioxide fluxes. Short and fragmented wetland FCH 4 data limit our ability to assess its long-term dynamics and potential climate feedbacks. Extrapolating short-term FCH 4 records to recent decades remains challenging for both process-based models and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches. Here, we develop a knowledge-guided ML framework that integrates eddy covariance (EC) FCH 4 observations, field warming experiments, and biogeochemical knowledge to reconstruct the long-term FCH 4 budgets and trends. Focusing on the 11 longest EC monitoring sites in the AmeriFlux network, we found considerable variability in multi-decadal trends of wetland FCH 4 , with increases up to 14% per decade from 2000 to 2024. We also found that the strength of these increasing trends declines from high to low latitudes, highlighting the vulnerability of northern wetlands. This work presents novel and robust reconstructions of long-term wetland FCH 4 , offering critical benchmark datasets for bottom-up ecosystem models and advancing fundamental understanding of wetland biogeochemistry.

AmeriFlux site↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Improved Convection Parameterization with Detailed Aerosol–Cloud Microphysics for a Global Model

Abstract A new microphysical treatment that includes aerosol–cloud interactions and secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms is implemented in the convection scheme of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The approach is to embed a 1D Lagrangian parcel model in the bulk convective plume of the existing deep convection parameterization. Aerosol activation, growth processes including collision/coalescence, and three processes of SIP mechanisms, two of which are normally overlooked in atmospheric models, are represented in this embedded parcel model. These microphysical processes are treated with a hybrid bin/bulk scheme and a high spatial and temporal resolution for the integration of the embedded parcel in 1D, allowing vertical velocity to determine the microphysical evolution following the in-cloud motion during ascent. Simulations of an observed case (Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment) of a mesoscale convective system in Oklahoma, United States, with a single-column model (SCAM) version of CAM, are compared with aircraft in situ and ground-based observations of microphysical properties from the convection and precipitation. Results from the validation show the new microphysical scheme has a good representation of the ice initiation in the bulk convective plume, including the known and empirically quantified pathways of primary and secondary initiation, with benefits for the accuracy of properties of its supercooled cloud liquid. The sensitivity simulations and use of tagging tracers for the validated simulation confirm that the newly included SIP mechanisms are of paramount importance for convective microphysics and can be successfully treated in the global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗