Probabilistic storm surge and flood-inundation modeling of the Texas gulf coast using super-fast INundation of CoastS (SFINCS)
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The frequency and persistence of tidal inundation varies along the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface, from frequently inundated wetlands to rarely inundated upland forests. This inundation gradient controls soil and sediment biogeochemistry and influence the exchange of soils and sediments from terrestrial to aquatic domains. Although a rich literature exist on studies of the influence of tidal waters on the biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystem soils, few studies have experimentally addressed the reverse question: How do soils (or sediments) from different coastal ecosystems influence the biogeochemistry of the tidal waters that inundate them? To better understand initial responses of coastal waters that flood coastal wetlands and uplands, we conducted short-term laboratory experiments where seawater was amended with sediments and soils collected across regional gradients of inundation exposure (i.e., frequently to rarely inundated) for 14 sites across the Mid-Atlantic, USA. Measured changes in dissolved oxygen and greenhouse gas concentrations were used to calculate gas consumption or production rates occurring during seawater exposure to terrestrial materials. We also measured soil and water physical and chemical properties to explore potential drivers. We observed higher oxygen consumption rates for seawater incubated with soils/sediments from frequently inundated locations and higher carbon dioxide production for seawater incubated with soils from rarely inundated transect locations. Incubations with soil from rarely inundated sites produced the highest global warming potential, primarily driven by carbon dioxide and secondarily by nitrous oxide. We also found environmental drivers of gas rates varied notably between transect locations. Our findings indicate that seawater responses to soil and sediment inputs across coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces exhibit some consistent patterns and high intra- and inter-site variability, suggesting potential biogeochemical feedback loops as inundation regimes shift inland.
Abstract. The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.
UAVSAR, NASA's airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), conducted an extended observational campaign in Central and South America in March 2013, primarily related to volcanic deformations along the Andean Mountain Range but also including a large number of flights studying other scientific phenomena. During this campaign, the L-Band SAR collected data over the Napo River in Ecuador. The objectives of this experiment were to acquire polarimetric and interferometric L-Band SAR data over an inundated tropical forest in Ecuador simultaneously with on-the-ground field work ascertaining the extent of inundation, and to then derive from this data a quantitative estimate for the error in the SAR-derived inundation extent. In this paper, we will first describe the processing and preliminary analysis of the SAR data. The polarimetric SAR data will be classified by land cover and inundation state. The interferometric SAR data will be used to identify those areas where change in inundation extent occurred, and to measure the change in water level between two observations separated by a week. Second, we will describe the collection of the field estimates of inundation, and have preliminary comparisons of inundation extent measured in the field field versus that estimated from the SAR data.
As climate change increases the severity and frequency of extreme weather events in the tropics, it is vital for the safety of local communities and the health of ecosystems to monitor seasonal inundation. Forested inundation affects the ability of forested wetlands to provide ecosystem services, such as flood mitigation, water filtration, carbon storage, and erosion mitigation. While ground-based monitoring has traditionally been used to map inundation extent, those methods are costly and time-intensive. The NASA DEVELOP team focused on seasonal inundation throughout 2008 in the Maya Forest, when changes in inundation were drastic. To monitor seasonal inundation, our team used in situ field data and Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 1, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and products from the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). The team applied a Random Forest algorithm to Landsat 7 imagery, generating an object-level land cover classification with an overall accuracy of 72.1% and forest class with 100% recall and 78% precision. The team applied L-band backscatter thresholds from existing literature to forest-masked ALOS imagery and refined the thresholds in an iterative process using field data and hydrology models to delineate seasonal inundation extent. These publicly available data products help end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) to inform land management and protect community infrastructure.
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.
Mapping the extent of floodwaters following extreme rainfall aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. This study seeks to determine how accurately maps of inundation can be generated from L-band SAR imagery through Random Forest classification. Once the extent of water and inundated vegetation is classified, cleanup operations are performed using fuzzy logic to reduce false detections. Estimates of water extent are then combined with datasets describing the distribution of population, buildings, and roads throughout the domain to evaluate societal impacts. Results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed along with the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.
The Lower Illinois River Valley (LIRV) is home to some of the richest agricultural lands in the United States and its wetlands provide key ecosystem services like clean water and flood reduction. It has also experienced extensive degradation due to development and urban pollution. The Great Rivers Land Trust (GRLT), the National Great Rivers Research & Education Center, Principia College, and the American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange sought to incorporate inundation and surface water extent layers into their geodatabases to more accurately identify priority areas for wetland restoration. This project aimed to determine the feasibility of detecting inundation extent and duration along the valley using remotely sensed data. The team used Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to classify open water and inundated vegetation within the study site. The open water classification was compared to Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager. The team successfully created layers of inundation minimum and maximum extent, as well as inundation duration across the study area for 2019 and 2020. The open water classification resulted in an overall accuracy of 86% when validated against DSWE classifications. These analyses will help end users to identify high priority areas along the LIRV best suited for land conversion projects in the future.
The Lower Illinois River Valley (LIRV) is home to some of the richest agricultural lands in the United States and its wetlands provide key ecosystem services like clean water and flood reduction. It has also experienced extensive degradation due to development and urban pollution. The Great Rivers Land Trust (GRLT), the National Great Rivers Research & Education Center, Principia College, and the American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange sought to incorporate inundation and surface water extent layers into their geodatabases to more accurately identify priority areas for wetland restoration. This project aimed to determine the feasibility of detecting inundation extent and duration along the valley using remotely sensed data. We used Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to classify open water and inundated vegetation within the study site. The open water classification was compared to Dynamic Surface Water Extent(DSWE) derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager. We successfully created layers of inundation minimum and maximum extent, as well as inundation duration across the study area for 2019 and 2020. The open water classification resulted in an overall accuracy of 86% when validated against DSWE classifications. These analyses will help end users to identify high priority areas along the LIRV best suited for land conversion projects in the future.
The severe impacts of rain‐on‐snow (ROS) extreme events have been widely recognized and studied. However, unlike hydrological processes, flood inundation dynamics and the relative contribution of rainfall and snowmelt during ROS events remain under‐investigated. We diagnosed and documented sub‐kilometer spatio‐temporal dynamics of flood inundation during the 2017 California ROS events, simulated by a 2‐dimensional hydrodynamic model, River Dynamical Core (RDycore). RDycore shows good performance in capturing fine‐scale flood inundation dynamics against gauge measurements (with a median correlation coefficient of 0.81) and satellite observations. On top of rainfall, snowmelt not only increases the mean maximum inundation depth (12.0%–25.1%), but also expands the total flooded area (19.9%–31.9%) and prolongs the mean flood duration (3.4%–7.1%) across the events. Our findings offer an explicit and accurate picture of when and where ROS flooding could occur and how snowmelt increases flood hazard, valuable for risk assessment and infrastructure planning.
A method to assess global land surface water (fw) inundation dynamics was developed by exploiting the enhanced fw sensitivity of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The L-band fw (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals were derived using SMAP H-polarization brightness temperature (Tb) observations and predefined L-band reference microwave emissivities for water and land endmembers. Potential soil moisture and vegetation contributions to the microwave signal were represented from overlapping higher frequency (Tb) observations from AMSR2. The resulting (fw(sub LBand)) global record has high temporal sampling (1-3 days) and 36-km spatial resolution. The (fw(sub LBand)) annual averages corresponded favourably (R=0.84, p<0.001) with a 250-m resolution static global water map (MOD44W) aggregated at the same spatial scale, while capturing significant inundation variations worldwide. The monthly (fw(sub LBand)) averages also showed seasonal inundation changes consistent with river discharge records within six major US river basins. An uncertainty analysis indicated generally reliable (fw(sub LBand)) performance for major land cover areas and under low to moderate vegetation cover, but with lower accuracy for detecting water bodies covered by dense vegetation. Finer resolution (30-m) (fw(sub LBand)) results were obtained for three sub-regions in North America using an empirical downscaling approach and ancillary global Water Occurrence Dataset (WOD) derived from the historical Landsat record. The resulting 30-m (fw(sub LBand)) retrievals showed favourable spatial accuracy for water (70.71%) and land (98.99%) classifications and seasonal wet and dry periods when compared to independent water maps derived from Landsat-8 imagery. The new (fw(sub LBand)) algorithms and continuing SMAP and AMSR2 operations provide for near real-time, multi-scale monitoring of global surface water inundation dynamics and potential flood risk.
During and after flooding events, mapping the extent of floodwaters aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. Complimentary optical and SAR images from domestic and foreign entities are brought together through activations of the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters to support response efforts, from true-color, near-infrared, and thermal remote sensing data obtained by NASA, NOAA, and international satellites to the collection of high-resolution true color aerial photography by NOAA and the National Geodetic Survey. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. In this study, true-color NOAA aerial and commercial satellite imagery are used in conjunction with four UAVSAR data swaths centered on the Lumberton and Cape Fear River basins in southeastern North Carolina to develop a Random Forest classification model focused on mapping open water and floodwater otherwise obscured by vegetation or lingering cloud cover. Ancillary building footprint, transportation route, and population data will also be incorporated into the classification scheme to estimate the societal impacts of flooding based on the proximity of features to detected inundation. Preliminary results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed in addition to the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.
Identification of flood water extent from satellite images has historically relied on either synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or multi-spectral (MS) imagery. MS sensors are limited to cloud free conditions, whereas SAR imagery is plagued by noise-like speckle. Prior studies that use combinations of MS and SAR data to overcome individual limitations of these sensors have not fully examined sensitivity of flood mapping performance to different combinations of SAR and MS derived spectral indices or band transformations in color space. This study explores the use of diverse bands of Sentinel 2 (S2) through well-established water indices and Sentinel 1 (S1) derived SAR imagery along with their combinations to assess their capability for generating accurate flood inundation maps. The robustness in performance of S-1 and S-2 band combinations was evaluated using 446 hand labeled flood inundation images spanning across 11 flood events from Sen1Floods11 dataset which are highly diverse in terms of land cover as well as location. A modified K-fold cross validation approach is used to evaluate the performance of 32 combinations of S1 and S2 bands using a fully connected deep convolutional neural network known as U-Net. Our results indicated that usage of elevation information has improved the capability of S1 imagery to produce more accurate flood inundation maps. Compared to a median F1 score of 0.62 when using only S1 bands, the combined use of S1 and elevation information led to an improved median F1 score of 0.73. Water extraction indices based on S2 bands have a statistically significant superior performance in comparison to S1. Among all the band combinations, HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) transformation of S2 bands provides a median F1 score of 0.9, outperforming the commonly used water spectral indices owing to HSV’s transformation’s superior contrast distinguishing abilities. Additionally, U-Net algorithm was able to learn the relationship between raw S2 based water extraction indices and their corresponding raw S2 bands, but not of HSV owing to relatively complex computation involved in the latter. Results of the paper establishes important benchmarks for the extension of S1 and S2 data-based flood inundation mapping efforts over large spatial extents.
To monitor seasonal flooding within the tri-National Maya Forest the team completed the methodology started by the Summer 2021 term to analyze changes in inundation dynamic throughout 2017. The team analyzed inundation dynamics in Google Earth Engine (GEE) using Earth observation products from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) 2, and International Space Station (ISS) Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation LiDAR (GEDI). The team improved the landcover classification using the Random Forest algorithm in GEE by adding canopy height data derived from GEDI, elevation and slope data from Copernicus, and additional multi-spectral band ratios from Landsat 8. The pixel-based land cover classification produced an overall accuracy of 88%. Experiments measuring inundation extent using L-band SAR included comparing results with a priori knowledge, topography datasets, and auxiliary datasets. We iteratively tested and found threshold values for identifying forested inundation using the ratio for HH divided by HV. The resulting methodology and products helped end users from Belize’s Land Information Center (LIC) and Forest Department, Guatemala’s Center for Monitoring and Evaluation (CEMEC), and Mexico’s El Colegio de la Frontera Sur (ECOSUR) manage land and water resources and protect communities.
Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.
Wetlands cycle carbon by being net sinks for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and net sources of methane (CH 4 ). Daily and seasonal temporal patterns, dissolved oxygen (DO) availability, inundation status (flooded or dry/partially flooded), water depth, and vegetation can affect the magnitude of carbon uptake or emissions, but the extent and interactive effects of these variables on carbon gas fluxes are poorly understood. We characterized the linkages between carbon fluxes and these environmental and temporal drivers at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC), OH. We measured diurnal gas flux patterns in an upstream side channel (called the cove) using chamber measurements at six sites (three vegetated and three non-vegetated). We sampled hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM and monthly from July to October 2022. DO concentrations and water levels were measured monthly. Water inundation status had the most influential effect on carbon fluxes with flooded conditions supporting higher CH 4 fluxes (0.39 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; –1.23 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ) and drier conditions supporting higher CO 2 fluxes (0.03 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; 0.86 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). When flooded, the wetland was a net CO 2 sink; however, it became a source for both CH 4 and CO 2 when water levels were low. We compared chamber-based gas fluxes from the cove in flooded (July) and dry (August) months to fluxes measured with an eddy covariance tower whose footprint covers flooded portions of the wetland. The diurnal pattern of carbon fluxes at the tower did not vary with changing water levels but remained a CO 2 sink and a CH 4 source even when the cove where we performed the chamber measurements dried out. Furthermore, these results emphasize the role of inundation status on wetland carbon cycling and highlight the importance of fluctuating hydrologic patterns, especially hydrologic drawdowns, under changing climatic conditions.