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Results for “Inverse model calibration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian optimization for inverse calibration of expensive computer models: A case study for Johnson-Cook model in machining

Inverse model calibration for identifying the constitutive model parameters can be computationally demanding for expensive-to-evaluate simulation models. Here, this paper presents a modified Bayesian optimization (BO) method, denoted as BO-bound, that incorporates theoretical bounds on the quantity of interest. A case study for the inverse calibration of the Johnson Cook (J-C) flow stress model parameters is presented using machining (cutting) force data. The results show fast calibration of the five J-C parameters within 25 simulations. In general, the BO-bound method is applicable for inverse calibration of any expensive simulation models as well as optimization problems with known bounds.

Bayesian optimization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Calibration for Cancer Risk Projections According to Uncertain Data

This paper presents forward and inverse formulations for the calibration of computational models according to uncertain data. Uncertainty in the data might be caused by a poor metrology system, measurement noise, missing or uncontrollable input variables, or by the inability to directly measure the inputs and/or outputs of interest. The forward approach performs the calibration in the space of the model’s output thereby requiring repeated model simulations. Conversely, the inverse approach leverages an ensemble of solutions to an inverse problem in order to perform the calibration in the space of the model’s parameters. As such, the computational demands of the inverse approach are considerably lower. These strategies are applied to the calibration of a radiation model that in-forms cancer risk projections for future deep space missions.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utah FORGE 3-2514: A Strain Sensing Array to Characterize Deformation at the FORGE Site - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Strain Sensing Array to Characterize Deformation at the FORGE Site project by Clemson University, presented by Lawrence Murdoch. The project's objective was to evaluate the feasibility of measuring and interpreting tensor strain data to improve the performance of EGS. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 8, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1984

Calibration or inverse regression: Which is appropriate for crop surveys using LANDSAT data?

Calibration and inverse regression estimators of crop proportions are investigated where the auxiliary variable is obtained from binary classification of multivariate LANDSAT data. The appropriate model relating classifier proportions and ground observed proportions for a given crop type is the calibration model. Under this model the inverse regression estimator is superior to the calibration estimator in estimating the crop acreage or proportion for a region of interest.

Chhikara, R. S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prime VI

SAND2025-03757O Prime VI is a distribution-of-disease outbreak model calibration code based on variational inference. It accompanies a publication for submission to Statistics in Medicine journal, and the code will be maintained for open-source use on Sandia's GitLab. The software provides methods for calibrating an epidemiological model to measured case-count data for a multitude of correlated spatial regions. The code solves a Bayesian inverse problem for model calibration where the posterior over-model parameters are approximated through a custom implementation of variational inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification of a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for polymer interfaces

In this work we present a rate-dependent cohesive zone model for the fracture of polymeric interfaces and performs a Bayesian calibration, an uncertainty quantification, and a sensitivity analysis for the model. The proposed cohesive zone model accounts for both reversible elastic and irreversible rate-dependent separation sliding deformation at the interface. The viscous dissipation due to the irreversible opening at the interface is modeled using elastic-viscoplastic kinematics that incorporates the effects of strain rate. Inverse calibration of parameters for such complex models through trial and error is challenging due to the large number of parameters of the model. Moreover, the calibrated parameter values are often non-unique and uncertain when the available experimental data is limited. To tackle this challenge, we employ a Bayesian calibration approach to identify parameters from experimental data, the resulting parameters significantly enhance the accuracy of the model. To quantify the uncertainty associated with the inverse parameter estimation, a modular Bayesian approach is employed to calibrate the unknown model parameters, accounting for the parameter uncertainty of the cohesive zone model. The advantages of the Bayesian calibration over a deterministic parameter fit are demonstrated. Further, to quantify the model uncertainties, such as incorrect assumptions or missing physics, a discrepancy function is introduced, which significantly improves the model’s prediction. Finally, the total uncertainty of the model is quantified in a predictive setting. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess how changes in the input variables of the model affect the peak load, facilitating the identification of a concise set of highly influential parameters. The present approach can be used for calibration and uncertainty quantification for other complex computational mechanics models. It should also facilitate the designing of interface materials under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

BiRD (BioReactorDesign) [SWR-24-35]

Numerical simulations can accelerate scale up and optimization of bioreactors. This project provides a toolbox to facilitate such numerical simulations in OpenFOAM. The tool box contains 1) mesh generations tools for several typical bio reactor types in OpenFOAM 2) Inverse modeling tools to calibrate models using available experimental data 3) post processing tools that accelerate and streamline the analysis of the numerical simulations.

Hassanaly, Malik↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

MatCal Users Guide: Release 1.3.0

Any continuum mechanics model will require three components: (1) a discretized geometry of the boundary value problem being studied, (2) the partial differential equations to be solved, and (3) the initial conditions and boundary conditions for the problem. To describe material behavior in these computational models, material models contribute to (2) the underlying equations and, occasionally, to (3) the initial conditions for the simulation. These material models can exhibit a mathematical form that is empirically based, based on first principles, or developed from both empirical observations and known physics. In general, these models are meant to represent a class of materials with well understood behavior. As a result, material models have parameters that must be tuned or calibrated so that the model response matches characterization data available for the specific material it is intended to represent when used to simulate a specific system. For simple models, such as isotropic, linear elastic materials in solid mechanics, this calibration process can be a simple analytical calculation directly extracting the parameters from experimental measurements. For complex models that have many inputs and require many characterization datasets to adequately identify the material behavior, the model calibration process can require an inverse problem approach where an optimization is performed to tune the model parameters to the available data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital image correlation and infrared thermography data for seven unique geometries of 304L stainless steel

Material Testing 2.0 (MT2.0) is a paradigm that advocates for the use of rich, full-field data, such as from digital image correlation and infrared thermography, for material identification. By employing heterogeneous, multi-axial data in conjunction with sophisticated inverse calibration techniques such as finite element model updating and the virtual fields method, MT2.0 aims to reduce the number of specimens needed for material identification and to increase confidence in the calibration results. To support continued development, improvement, and validation of such inverse methods—specifically for rate-dependent, temperature-dependent, and anisotropic metal plasticity models—we provide here a thorough experimental data set for 304L stainless steel sheet metal. The data set includes full-field displacement, strain, and temperature data for seven unique specimen geometries tested at different strain rates and in different material orientations. Commensurate extensometer strain data from tensile dog bones is provided as well for comparison. We believe this complete data set will be a valuable contribution to the experimental and computational mechanics communities, supporting continued advances in material identification methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A probabilistic inverse prediction method for predicting plutonium processing conditions

In the past decade, nuclear chemists and physicists have been conducting studies to investigate the signatures associated with the production of special nuclear material (SNM). In particular, these studies aim to determine how various processing parameters impact the physical, chemical, and morphological properties of the resulting special nuclear material. By better understanding how these properties relate to the processing parameters, scientists can better contribute to nuclear forensics investigations by quantifying their results and ultimately shortening the forensic timeline. This paper aims to statistically analyze and quantify the relationships that exist between the processing conditions used in these experiments and the various properties of the nuclear end-product by invoking inverse methods. In particular, these methods make use of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surface models in conjunction with Bayesian model calibration techniques to probabilistically determine processing conditions as an inverse function of morphological characteristics. Not only does the model presented in this paper allow for providing point estimates of a sample of special nuclear material, but it also incorporates uncertainty into these predictions. This model proves sufficient for predicting processing conditions within a standard deviation of the observed processing conditions, on average, provides a solid foundation for future work in predicting processing conditions of particles of special nuclear material using only their observed morphological characteristics, and is generalizable to the field of chemometrics for applicability across different materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Analytical Calibration Approach for the Polarimetric Airborne C Band Radiometer

Passive microwave remote sensing is sensitive to the quantity and distribution of water in soil and vegetation. During summer 2000, the Microwave Geophysics Group a t the University of Michigan conducted the seventh Radiobrighness Energy Balance Experiment (REBEX-7) over a corn canopy in Michigan. Long time series of brightness temperatures, soil moisture and micrometeorology on the plot were taken. This paper addresses the calibration of the NASA GSFC polarimetric airborne C band microwave radiometer (ACMR) that participated in REBEX-7. These passive polarimeters are typically calibrated using an end-to-end approach based upon a standard artificial target or a well-known geophysical target. Analyzing the major internal functional subsystems offers a different perspective. The primary goal of this approach is to provide a transfer function that not only describes the system in its entire5 but also accounts for the contributions of each subsystem toward the final modified Stokes parameters. This approach does not assume that the radiometric system is linear as it does not take polarization isolation for granted, and it also serves as a realistic instrument simulator, a useful tool for future designs. The ACMR architecture can be partitioned into functional subsystems. The characteristics of each subsystem was extensively measured and the estimated parameters were imported into the overall dosed form system model. Inversion of the model yields a calibration for the modeled Stokes parameters with uncertainties of 0.2 K for the V and H polarizations and 2.4 K for the 3rd and 4th parameters. Application to the full Stokes parameters over a senescent cornfield is presented.

Pham, Hanh↗