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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Wave energy resource characterization employing joint distributions in frequency-direction-time domain

Joint and marginal distributions in the frequency, direction, and time domain are employed to demonstrate their value for wave energy resource characterization when full spectra are available. Insights gained through analysis of these distributions support wave energy converter concept design, operation and maintenance. Spatial trends in the wave energy resource and contributing wave energy systems along the continental shelf of the West Coast of the United States are investigated using the most recent two-dimensional wave spectra measurements at four buoys over an eleven year period (2008 to 2018). Resource hot spots and dominant resolved energy resource bands in the frequency-direction-time domain are delineated. Resource attributes, including frequency and directional spreading, and seasonal variability, are characterized using joint distributions and marginal distributions of wave power spectra. North Pacific westerly swells in the winter season, augmented by Aleutian low-pressure southwesterly swells, are the principal suppliers of the dominant resource and main drivers influencing resource attributes. In conclusion, the modification of these systems southward, especially the North Pacific westerly swells, explains the observed spatial resource trends. The dominant resource wave period shifts two seconds to higher wave periods, thirty degrees in the dominant direction band to a more northward orientation, and forward by one month.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Topography Project Update 5/20 [Slides]

Problem/Goal: Earth System Models (ESMs) do not accurately predict fire spread. There are no effects from topography/vegetation heterogeneity below the model’s scale (100-200km). Use physics based models (FIRETEC and QUICFIRE) to produce an archive of correction factors for SPITFIRE (chosen ESM). This project will: Use datasets to create PDFs of slope & aspect, vegetation distribution; Create joint distribution and sample to make new domain; Run FIRETEC & QUICFIRE on created domain, record output (area burned, intensity, etc.); and Use output to create PDF of correction factors for SPITFIRE runs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Comparison Framework for Evaluating Environmental Contours of Extreme Sea States

Environmental contours of extreme sea states are often utilized for the purposes of reliability-based offshore design. Many methods have been proposed to estimate environmental contours of extreme sea states, including, but not limited to, the traditional inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) and subsequent modifications, copula methods, and Monte Carlo methods. These methods differ in terms of both the methodology selected for defining the joint distribution of sea state parameters and in the method used to construct the environmental contour from the joint distribution. It is often difficult to compare the results of proposed methods to determine which method should be used for a particular application or geographical region. The comparison of the predictions from various contour methods at a single site and across many sites is important to making environmental contours of extreme sea states useful in practice. The goal of this paper is to develop a comparison framework for evaluating methods for developing environmental contours of extreme sea states. This paper develops generalized metrics for comparing the performance of contour methods to one another across a collection of study sites, and applies these metrics and methods to develop conclusions about trends in the wave resource across geographic locations, as demonstrated for a pilot dataset. These proposed metrics and methods are intended to judge the environmental contours themselves relative to other contour methods, and are thus agnostic to a specific device, structure, or field of application. The metrics developed and applied in this paper include measures of predictive accuracy, physical validity, and aggregated temporal performance that can be used to both assess contour methods and provide recommendations for the use of certain methods in various geographical regions. The application and aggregation of the metrics proposed in this paper outline a comparison framework for environmental contour methods that can be applied to support design analysis workflows for offshore structures. This comparison framework could be extended in future work to include additional metrics of interest, potentially including those to address issues pertinent to a specific application area or analysis discipline, such as metrics related to structural response across contour methods or additional physics-based metrics based on wave dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmological cross-correlations and nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between data sets are used in many different contexts in cosmological analyses. Recently, k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions (kNN-CDF) were shown to be sensitive probes of cosmological (auto) clustering. In this paper, we extend the framework of NN measurements to describe joint distributions of, and correlations between, two data sets. We describe the measurement of joint kNN-CDFs, and show that these measurements are sensitive to all possible connected N-point functions that can be defined in terms of the two data sets. We describe how the cross-correlations can be isolated by combining measurements of the joint kNN-CDFs and those measured from individual data sets. We demonstrate the application of these measurements in the context of Gaussian density fields, as well as for fully non-linear cosmological data sets. Using a Fisher analysis, we show that measurements of the halo-matter cross-correlations, as measured through NN measurements are more sensitive to the underlying cosmological parameters, compared to traditional two-point cross-correlation measurements over the same range of scales. Finally, we demonstrate how the NN cross-correlations can robustly detect cross-correlations between sparse samples – the same regime where the two-point cross-correlation measurements are dominated by noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modal Analysis of Ultrasonic Spot Welding for Lightweight Metals Joining

Ultrasonic spot welding (USW) represents one of the unique solid-state joining methods for lightweight materials such as magnesium alloy and aluminum alloy. However, the sonotrode vibration may have a detrimental impact on the sheet material and the existing welds, depending on the component geometry and vibration frequency. In this study, a modal analysis tool based on steady-state dynamics was developed for ultrasonic spot welding which features a cyclic load applied to the sheets during the joining process. Through predicting relative motion and shear stress at the faying surfaces, coupon geometry and weld spacing are identified as two major factors that affect the welding reliability and joint quality in USW. The model was validated via welding experiments on aluminum alloy and magnesium alloy and relevant characterization of temperature distribution, joint strength as well as fracture location.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hidden structure of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks

We study the large-scale dynamics and prediction of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks. The flow and transport behaviour is characterized by first passage times and displacement statistics, which show heavy tails and anomalous dispersion with a strong dependence on the injection condition. The origin of these behaviours is investigated in terms of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along particle trajectories, unlike classical sampling strategies at a constant rate. The velocity series are analysed by their copula density, the joint distribution of the velocity unit scores, which reveals a simple, albeit hidden, correlation structure that can be described by a Gaussian copula. Based on this insight, we derive a Langevin equation for the evolution of equidistant particle speeds. In this framework, particle motion is quantified by a stochastic time-domain random walk, the joint density of particle position, and speed satisfies a Klein–Kramers equation. The upscaled theory quantifies particle motion in terms of the characteristic fracture length scale and the distribution of Eulerian flow velocities. That is, it is predictive in the sense that it does not require the a priori knowledge of transport attributes. The upscaled model captures non-Fickian transport features, and their dependence on the injection conditions in terms of the velocity point statistics and average fracture length. It shows that the first passage times and displacement moments are dominated by extremes occurring at the first step. The presented approach integrates the interaction of flow and structure into a predictive model for large-scale transport in random fracture networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

Abstract The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. Using 35 simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS), we investigate the long‐term evolution of the joint distribution of summer relative humidity (RH) and daily maximum temperature ( Tmax ) near four U.S. cities (New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans) under the high‐emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. We estimate the conditional quantiles of RH given Tmax with quantile regression models, using functions of temperature for each city in July for three time periods (1990–2005, 2026–2035, and 2071–2080). Quality‐of‐fit diagnostics indicate that these models accurately estimate conditional quantiles for each city. As expected, each quantile of Tmax increases from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080, while mean RH decreases modestly. Conditional upon a fixed quantile of Tmax , the median and high quantiles of RH decrease, while those of the Heat Index (HI) and dew point both increase. This result suggests that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress measured by metrics considering both humidity and temperature in a warming climate will increase faster than that measured by temperatures alone would indicate. For a fixed Tmax , the high quantiles of RH (and thus of HI and dew point) increase from 1990–2005 to 2071–2080 in all four cities. This result suggests that the heat stress of a day at a given Tmax will increase in a warming climate due to the increase of RH.

Yuan, Jiacan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributionally Robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process with Moment-Based Ambiguity

In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust partially observable Markov decision process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations can be inferred using side information at the end of each period after an action being taken. We build an ambiguity set of the joint distribution using bounded moments via conic constraints and seek an optimal policy to maximize the worst-case (minimum) reward for any distribution in the set. We show that the value function of DR-POMDP is piecewise linear convex with respect to the belief state and propose a heuristic search value iteration method for obtaining lower and upper bounds of the value function. We conduct numerical studies and demonstrate the computational performance of our approach via testing instances of a dynamic epidemic control problem. Our results show that DR-POMDP can produce more robust policies under misspecified distributions of transition-observation probabilities as compared to POMDP but has less costly solutions than robust POMDP. The DR-POMDP policies are also insensitive to varying parameter in the ambiguity set and to noise added to the true transition-observation probability values obtained at the end of each decision period.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing High Performance Markov Clustering for Pre-Exascale Architectures

HipMCL is a high-performance distributed memory implementation of the popular Markov Cluster Algorithm (MCL) and can cluster large-scale networks within hours using a few thousand CPU-equipped nodes. It relies on sparse matrix computations and heavily makes use of the sparse matrix-sparse matrix multiplication kernel (SpGEMM). The existing parallel algorithms in HipMCL are not scalable to Exascale architectures, both due to their communication costs dominating the runtime at large concurrencies and also due to their inability to take advantage of accelerators that are increasingly popular. In this work, we systematically remove scalability and performance bottlenecks of HipMCL. We enable GPUs by performing the expensive expansion phase of the MCL algorithm on GPU. Additionally, we propose a CPU-GPU joint distributed SpGEMM algorithm called pipelined Sparse SUMMA and integrate a probabilistic memory requirement estimator that is fast and accurate. Furthermore, we develop a new merging algorithm for the incremental processing of partial results produced by the GPUs, which improves the overlap efficiency and the peak memory usage. We also integrate a recent and faster algorithm for performing SpGEMM on CPUs. We validate our new algorithms and optimizations with extensive evaluations. With the enabling of the GPUs and integration of new algorithms, HipMCL is up to 12.4x faster, being able to cluster a network with 70 million proteins and 68 billion connections just under 15 minutes using 1024 nodes of ORNL's Summit supercomputer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint statistics of cosmological constant and SUSY breaking in flux vacua with nilpotent Goldstino

We obtain the joint distribution of the gravitino mass and the cosmological constant in KKLT and LVS models with anti-D3 brane uplifting described via the nilpotent goldstino formalism. Moduli stabilisation (of both complex structure and Kähler moduli) is incorporated so that we sample only over points corresponding to vacua. Our key inputs are the distributions of the flux superpotential, the string coupling and the hierarchies of warped throats. In the limit of zero cosmological constant, we find that both in KKLT and LVS the distributions are tilted favourably towards lower scales of supersymmetry breaking.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗