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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Using Relative Position and Temporal Judgments to Assess the Effects of Texture and Field of View on Spatial Awareness for Synthetic Vision Systems Displays

Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) depict computer generated views of terrain surrounding an aircraft. In the assessment of textures and field of view (FOV) for SVS, no studies have directly measured the 3 levels of spatial awareness: identification of terrain, its relative spatial location, and its relative temporal location. This work introduced spatial awareness measures and used them to evaluate texture and FOV in SVS displays. Eighteen pilots made 4 judgments (relative angle, distance, height, and abeam time) regarding the location of terrain points displayed in 112 5-second, non-interactive simulations of a SVS heads down display. Texture produced significant main effects and trends for the magnitude of error in the relative distance, angle, and abeam time judgments. FOV was significant for the directional magnitude of error in the relative distance, angle, and height judgments. Pilots also provided subjective terrain awareness ratings that were compared with the judgment based measures. The study found that elevation fishnet, photo fishnet, and photo elevation fishnet textures best supported spatial awareness for both the judgments and the subjective awareness measures.

Bolton, Matthew L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Confidence-weighted integration of human and machine judgments for superior decision-making

Large language models (LLMs) can surpass humans in certain forecasting tasks. What role does this leave for humans in the overall decision process? One possibility is that humans, despite performing worse than LLMs, can still add value when teamed with them. A human and machine team can surpass each individual teammate when team members’ confidence is well calibrated and team members diverge in which tasks they find difficult (i.e., calibration and diversity are needed). We simplified and extended a Bayesian approach to combining judgments using a logistic regression framework that integrates confidence-weighted judgments for any number of team members. Using this straightforward method, we demonstrated its effectiveness in both image classification and neuroscience forecasting tasks. Combining human judgments with one or more machines consistently improved overall team performance. Our hope is that this simple and effective strategy for integrating the judgments of humans and machines will lead to productive collaborations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Legal Judgment Prediction Based on Multiclass Information Fusion

Legal judgment prediction (LJP), as an effective and critical application in legal assistant systems, aims to determine the judgment results according to the information based on the fact determination. In real-world scenarios, to deal with the criminal cases, judges not only take advantage of the fact description, but also consider the external information, such as the basic information of defendant and the court view. However, most existing works take the fact description as the sole input for LJP and ignore the external information. We propose a Transformer-Hierarchical-Attention-Multi-Extra (THME) Network to make full use of the information based on the fact determination. We conduct experiments on a real-world large-scale dataset of criminal cases in the civil law system. Experimental results show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art LJP methods on all judgment prediction tasks.

Zhu, Kongfan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural correspondence to spectrum of environmental uncertainty in multiple-cue probability judgment system with time delay

Despite state-of-the-art technologies like artificial intelligence, human judgment is critically essential in cooperative systems, such as the multi-agent system (MAS), which collect information among agents based on multiple-cue judgment. Human agents can prevent impaired situational awareness of automated agents by confirming situations under environmental uncertainty. System error caused by uncertainty can result in an unreliable system environment, and this environment affects the human agent, resulting in non-optimal decision-making in MAS. Thus, it is necessary to know how human behavior is changed to capture system reliability under uncertainty. Another issue affecting MAS is time delay, which can delay agent information transfer, resulting in low performance and instability. However, it is difficult to find studies on the influence of time delay on human agents. This study is about understanding the human decision-making process under a specific system reliability environment by uncertainty with time delay. We used concepts of expected and unexpected uncertainty to implement reliability of the system usage environment with three types of time delay conditions: no time delay, regular time delay, and irregular time delay conditions. We used electroencephalogram (EEG) for human cognitive neural mechanisms in multiple-cue judgment systems to understand human decision-making. In the reliability of system usage environment, the unreliable system environment significantly creates less memory load by less utilization of system rules for decision-making. In terms of time delay, delayed information delivery does not significantly affect memory load for decision-making.

cognitive process↗
NASA NTRS1994

Time-to-Passage Judgments under Violations of Various Constancy Assumptions

Time-to-passage (TTP) derivations typically assume constant translational velocities and consistent object orientation. In our first study, we examined the impact of acceleration, and observer roll and heading (relative to track vector) on TTP judgments. Judgments reflected an insensitivity to acceleration; roll did not affect performance, but the decoupling of observer heading and track vector did. Our second study examined the effect of multi-axis target rotation on TTP and time-to-contact judgments.

Kaiser, Mary K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Space vehicle approach velocity judgments under simulated visual space conditions

There were 35 volunteers who responded when they first perceived an increase in apparent size of a collimated, two-dimensional perspective image of an Orbiter vehicle. The variables of interest included the presence (or absence) of a fixed reticle within the field of view (FOV), background starfield velocity, initial range to the vehicle and vehicle closure velocity. It was found that: 1) increasing vehicle approach velocity yielded a very small (but significant) effect of faster detection of vehicle movement, nevertheless, response variability was relatively large; 2) including the fixed reticle in the FOV produced significantly slower detection of vehicle radial movement, however this occurred only at the largest range and the magnitude of the effect was only about 15% of the one sigma value; and 3) increasing background star velocity during this judgment led to slower detection of vehicle movement. While statistically significant, this effect was small and occurred primarily at the largest range. A possible explanation for the last two findings is that other static and dynamic objects within the visual field may compete for available attention which otherwise would be available for judging image expansion; thus, the target's retinal image has to expand more than otherwise for its movement to be detected. This study also showed that the Proximity Operations Research Mockup at NASA/Ames can be used effectively to investigate a variety of visual judgment questions related to future space operations. These findings are discussed in relation to previous research and possible underlying mechanisms.

Space Flight↗
NASA NTRS1995

Time-to-Passage Judgments in Nonconstant Optical Flow Fields

The time until an approaching object will pass an observer (time to passage, or TTP) is optically specified by a global flow field even in the absence of local expansion or size cues. Kaiser and Mowafy have demonstrated that observers are in fact sensitive to this global flow information. The present studies investigate two factors that are usually ignored in work related to TTP: (1) non-constant motion functions and (2) concomitant eye rotation. Non-constant velocities violate an assumption of some TTP derivations, and eye rotations may complicate heading extraction. Such factors have practical significance, for example, in the case of a pilot accelerating an aircraft or executing a roll. In our studies, a flow field of constant-sized stars was presented monocularly on a large screen. TIP judgments had to be made on the basis of one target star. The flow field varied in its acceleration pattern and its roll component. Observers did not appear to utilize acceleration information. In particular, TTP with decelerating motion were consistently underestimated. TTP judgments were fairly robust with respect to roll, even when roll axis and track vector were decoupled. However, substantial decoupling between heading and track vector led to a decrement in performance, in both the presence and the absence of roll.

Kaiser, Mary K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Graphical METARS on Pilots' Weather Judgment

VFR flight into IMC conditions accounts for over 10% of general aviation fatalities each year. Recent research suggests that pilots may not properly assess weather conditions. New graphical weather information systems (GWISs) may positively or negatively influence pilot weather-related judgments. Since GWIS information is not always current it may not be veritical. In the current investigation twenty-four GA pilots made visibility and ceiling estimates of simulated weather conditions either with or without a GWIS display. Pilots generally overestimated weather conditions and their judgments were influenced by the GWIS. The results revealed an interaction between ceiling and visibility that suggests a new model for understanding VFR flight into IMC. The current results suggest an important area for future research into understanding pilots decisions to continue into deteriorating weather conditions. Results are discussed in terms of advancing aviation decision making models for understanding VFR into IMC flight, and the design of GWIS symbology to foster accurate assessments.

Coyne, Joseph T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Abstract The persistent and growing spread in effective climate sensitivity (ECS) across global climate models necessitates rigorous evaluation of their cloud feedbacks. Here we evaluate several cloud feedback components simulated in 19 climate models against benchmark values determined via an expert synthesis of observational, theoretical, and high‐resolution modeling studies. We find that models with smallest feedback errors relative to these benchmark values generally have moderate total cloud feedbacks (0.4–0.6 W m −2 K −1 ) and ECS (3–4 K). Those with largest errors generally have total cloud feedback and ECS values that are too large or too small. Models tend to achieve large positive total cloud feedbacks by having several cloud feedback components that are systematically biased high rather than by having a single anomalously large component, and vice versa. In general, better simulation of mean‐state cloud properties leads to stronger but not necessarily better cloud feedbacks. The Python code base provided herein could be applied to developmental versions of models to assess cloud feedbacks and cloud errors and place them in the context of other models and of expert judgment in real‐time during model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-Making Under Thermal Stress

Accumulating evidence indicates that environmental temperature substantially affects economic outcomes and violence, but the reasons for this linkage are not well understood. We systematically evaluate the effect of thermal stress on multiple dimensions of economic decisionmaking, judgment, and destructive behavior with 2,000 participants in Kenya and the US who were randomly assigned to different temperatures in a laboratory. We find that most dimensions of decision-making are unaffected by temperature. However, heat causes individuals to voluntarily destroy other participants’ assets, with more pronounced effects during a period of heightened political conflict in Kenya.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗