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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Themis-family Asteroid Contribution to the Jupiter-family Comet Population

Recent dynamical analyses suggest that some Jupiter family comets (JFCs) may originate in the main asteroid belt instead of the outer solar system. This possibility is particularly interesting given evidence that icy main-belt objects are known to be present in the Themis asteroid family. We report results from dynamical analyses specifically investigating the possibility that icy Themis family members could contribute to the observed population of JFCs. Numerical integrations show that such dynamical evolution is indeed possible via a combination of eccentricity excitation apparently driven by the nearby 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter, gravitational interactions with planets other than Jupiter, and the Yarkovsky effect. We estimate that, at any given time, there may be tens of objects from the Themis family on JFC-like orbits with the potential to mimic active JFCs from the outer solar system, although not all, or even any, may necessarily be observably active. We find that dynamically evolved Themis family objects on JFC-like orbits have semimajor axes between 3.15 and 3.40 au for the vast majority of their time on such orbits, consistent with the strong role that the 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter likely plays in their dynamical evolution. We conclude that a contribution from the Themis family to the active JFC population is plausible, although further work is needed to better characterize this contribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

James Clerk Maxwell Telescope Spectral and Continuum Imaging of Hyperactive Comet 46P/Wirtanen

The Jupiter-family comet (JFC) 46P/Wirtanen passed the Earth at a distance of 0.077 au on 2018 December 16 UT, presenting a rare opportunity to study the chemical structure of its coma. With the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope we achieved a resolution of 800 km, which is smaller than the scale lengths of some distributed cometary molecules at the comet’s heliocentric distance of 1 au. Spectroscopic observations of the J = 4 - 3 transition of HCN showed generally uniform levels of outgassing activity during the observing period, 2018 December 14–20. Gas expansion velocities were ~0.6 km s{sup -1}, and the derived average HCN production rate was 7.4 × 10{sup 24} mol s{sup -1}. HCN and CH{sub 3}OH emissions were detected at least 30" (1600 km) from the nucleus, and the abundances of these species were typical for a JFC. The radial distribution of CH{sub 3}OH is consistent with an extended source of sublimation such as a population of icy grains—cometary halo ice primaries, or CHIPs—as has been invoked previously to explain hyperactivity in comets. The abundance of H{sub 2}CO is normal if it is a daughter species. HNC and CO were not detected, but a sensitive nondetection of CS implies an unusually low CS:H{sub 2}O ratio of <0.02%. The peak brightness of the 850 μm continuum emissions from icy coma dust particles of size ~1 mm fell from (52 ± 6) to (40 ± 3) mJy beam{sup -1} through the week, while the size of the dust coma remained essentially constant, with dust extending to ~1000 km from the nucleus. The total mass of those particles was ~2 × 10{sup 8} kg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Finding Long Lost Lexell's Comet: The Fate of the First Discovered Near-Earth Object

Jupiter-family Comet D/1770 L1 (Lexell) was the first discovered Near-Earth Object (NEO) and passed the Earth on 1770 July 1 at a recorded distance of 0.015 au. The comet was subsequently lost due to unfavorable observing circumstances during its next apparition followed by a close encounter with Jupiter in 1779. Since then, the fate of D/Lexell has attracted interest from the scientific community, and now we revisit this long-standing question. We investigate the dynamical evolution of D/Lexell based on a set of orbits recalculated using the observations made by Charles Messier, the comet’s discoverer, and find that there is a 98% chance that D/Lexell remains in the solar system by the year of 2000. This finding remains valid even if a moderate non-gravitational effect is imposed. Messier’s observations also suggest that the comet is one of the largest known near-Earth comets, with a nucleus of ≳10 km in diameter. This implies that the comet should have been detected by contemporary NEO surveys regardless of its activity level if it has remained in the inner solar system. We identify asteroid 2010 JL{sub 33} as a possible descendant of D/Lexell, with a 0.8% probability of chance alignment, but a direct orbital linkage of the two bodies has not been successfully accomplished. We also use the recalculated orbit to investigate the meteors potentially originating from D/Lexell. While no associated meteors have been unambiguously detected, we show that meteor observations can be used to better constrain the orbit of D/Lexell despite the comet being long lost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Size Dependence of Dust Distribution around the Earth Orbit

In the solar system, interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) originating mainly from asteroid collisions and cometary activities drift to Earth orbit due to Poynting–Robertson drag. We analyzed the thermal emission from IDPs that was observed by the first Japanese infrared astronomical satellite, AKARI . The observed surface brightness in the trailing direction of the Earth orbit is 3.7% greater than that in the leading direction in the 9 μ m band and 3.0% in the 18 μ m band. In order to reveal dust properties causing leading–trailing surface brightness asymmetry, we numerically integrated orbits of the Sun, the Earth, and a dust particle as a restricted three-body problem including radiation from the Sun. The initial orbits of particles are determined according to the orbits of main-belt asteroids or Jupiter-family comets. Orbital trapping in mean motion resonances results in a significant leading–trailing asymmetry so that intermediate sized dust (∼10–100 μ m) produces a greater asymmetry than zodiacal light. The leading–trailing surface brightness difference integrated over the size distribution of the asteroidal dust is obtained to be 27.7% and 25.3% in the 9 μ m and 18 μ m bands, respectively. In contrast, the brightness difference for cometary dust is calculated as 3.6% and 3.1% in the 9 μ m and 18 μ m bands, respectively, if the maximum dust radius is set to be s {sub max} = 3000 μ m. Taking into account these values and their errors, we conclude that the contribution of asteroidal dust to the zodiacal infrared emission is less than ∼10%, while cometary dust of the order of 1 mm mainly accounts for the zodiacal light in infrared.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

2014–2015 MULTIPLE OUTBURSTS OF 15P/FINLAY

Multiple outbursts of a Jupiter-family comet (JFC), 15P/Finlay, occurred from late 2014 to early 2015. We conducted an observation of the comet after the first outburst and subsequently witnessed another outburst on 2015 January 15.6–15.7. The gas, consisting mostly of C{sub 2} and CN, and dust particles expanded at speeds of 1110 ± 180 m s{sup −1} and 570 ± 40 m s{sup −1} at a heliocentric distance of 1.0 au. We estimated the maximum ratio of solar radiation pressure with respect to the solar gravity β {sub max} = 1.6 ± 0.2, which is consistent with porous dust particles composed of silicates and organics. We found that 10{sup 8}–10{sup 9} kg of dust particles (assumed to be 0.3 μ m–1 mm) were ejected through each outburst. Although the total mass is three orders of magnitude smaller than that of the 17P/Holmes event observed in 2007, the kinetic energy per unit mass (10{sup 4} J kg{sup −1}) is equivalent to the estimated values of 17P/Holmes and 332P/2010 V1 (Ikeya–Murakami), suggesting that the outbursts were caused by a similar physical mechanism. From a survey of cometary outbursts on the basis of voluntary reports, we conjecture that 15P/Finlay-class outbursts occur >1.5 times annually and inject dust particles from JFCs and Encke-type comets into interplanetary space at a rate of ∼10 kg s{sup −1} or more.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initial Characterization of Active Transitioning Centaur, P/2019 LD{sub 2} (ATLAS), Using Hubble, Spitzer, ZTF, Keck, Apache Point Observatory, and GROWTH Visible and Infrared Imaging and Spectroscopy

We present visible and mid-infrared imagery and photometry of temporary Jovian co-orbital comet P/2019 LD{sub 2} taken with Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3), Spitzer Space Telescope/Infrared Array Camera (Spitzer/IRAC), and the GROWTH telescope network, visible spectroscopy from Keck/Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS), and archival Zwicky Transient Facility observations taken between 2019 April and 2020 August. Our observations indicate that the nucleus of LD{sub 2} has a radius between 0.2 and 1.8 km assuming a 0.08 albedo and a coma dominated by ∼100 μm-scale dust ejected at ∼1 m s{sup −1} speeds with a ∼1′ jet pointing in the southwest direction. LD{sub 2} experienced a total dust mass loss of ∼10{sup 8} kg at a loss rate of ∼6 kg s{sup −1} with Afρ/cross section varying between ∼85 cm/125 km{sup 2} and ∼200 cm/310 km{sup 2} from 2019 April 9 to 2019 November 8. If the increase in Afρ/cross section remained constant, it implies LD{sub 2}'s activity began ∼2018 November when within 4.8 au of the Sun, implying the onset of H{sub 2}O sublimation. We measure CO/CO{sub 2} gas production of ≲10{sup 27} mol s{sup −1}/≲10{sup 26} mol s{sup −1} from our 4.5 μm Spitzer observations; g–r = 0.59 ± 0.03, r–i = 0.18 ± 0.05, and i–z = 0.01 ± 0.07 from GROWTH observations; and H{sub 2}O gas production of ≲80 kg s{sup −1} scaling from our estimated C {sub 2} production of Q{sub C{sub 2}}≲7.5×10{sup 24} mol s{sup −1} from Keck/LRIS spectroscopy. We determine that the long-term orbit of LD{sub 2} is similar to Jupiter-family comets having close encounters with Jupiter within ∼0.5 Hill radius in the last ∼3 y and within 0.8 Hill radius in ∼9 y. Additionally, 78.8% of our orbital clones are ejected from the solar system within 1 × 10{sup 6} yr, having a dynamical half-life of 3.4 × 10{sup 5} yr.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbonyl Sulfide (OCS): Detections in Comets C/2002 T7 (LINEAR), C/2015 ER61 (PanSTARRS), and 21P/Giacobini–Zinner and Stringent Upper Limits in 46P/Wirtanen

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is one of the sulfur-bearing molecules detected in different astronomical environments, including comets. The present-day sulfur chemistry in comets may reveal much about the origin of these ices and their subsequent processing history. Cometary sulfur molecules such as H{sub 2}S, H{sub 2}CS, SO{sub 2}, SO, CS, CS{sub 2}, S{sub 2}, and NS have been detected in many comets. However, OCS, the only sulfur-bearing species with fluorescence emission lines at infrared wavelengths, is under-represented in comet volatile studies, having been reported in only six comets so far. We targeted OCS with the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility in comets 46P/Wirtanen, 21P/Giacobini–Zinner, and C/2015 ER61 (PanSTARRS) in 2017–2018 using the high-resolution iSHELL spectrograph, and in C/2002 T7 (LINEAR) in 2004 using the heritage CSHELL spectrograph. In comet C/2015 ER61, the OCS abundance was similar to those measured in bright comets such as comets C/2012 S1 (ISON) and C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake), whereas in C/2002 T7 it was relatively depleted. Our OCS measurement in 21P/Giacobini–Zinner is the first definitive detection of this molecule in a Jupiter-family comet from a ground-based facility and is close to the average OCS abundance determined in comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the Rosetta mission. Our 3σ upper limit for comet 46P/Wirtanen is the lowest reported OCS abundance in any comet. We present production rates and mixing ratios (with respect to H{sub 2}O) for these comets and place our results in the context of comets measured to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

DYNAMIC DEUTERIUM ENRICHMENT IN COMETARY WATER VIA ELEY–RIDEAL REACTIONS

The deuterium-to-hydrogen ratio (D/H) in water found in the coma of Jupiter family comet (JFC) 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko was reported to be (5.3 ± 0.7) × 10{sup −4}, the highest among comets and three times the value for other JFCs with an ocean-like ratio. This discrepancy suggests the diverse origins of JFCs and clouds the issue of the origin of Earth’s oceanic water. Here we demonstrate that Eley–Rideal reactions between accelerated water ions and deuterated cometary surface analogs can lead to instantaneous deuterium enrichment in water scattered from the surface. The reaction proceeds with H{sub 2}O{sup +} abstracting adsorbed D atoms, forming an excited H{sub 2}DO* state, which dissociates subsequently to produce energetic HDO. Hydronium ions are also produced readily by the abstraction of H atoms, consistent with H{sub 3}O{sup +} detection and abundance in various comets. Experiments with water isotopologs and kinematic analysis on deuterated platinum surfaces confirmed the dynamic abstraction mechanism. The instantaneous fractionation process is independent of the surface temperature and may operate on the surface of cometary nuclei or dust grains, composed of deuterium-rich silicates and carbonaceous chondrites. The requisite energetic water ions have been detected in the coma of 67P in two populations. This dynamic fractionation process may temporarily increase the water D/H ratio, especially as the comet gets closer to the Sun. The magnitude of the effect depends on the water ion energy-flux and the deuterium content of the exposed cometary surfaces.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Active Asteroids Citizen Science Program: Overview and First Results

Abstract We present the Citizen Science program Active Asteroids and describe discoveries stemming from our ongoing project. Our NASA Partner program is hosted on the Zooniverse online platform and launched on 2021 August 31, with the goal of engaging the community in the search for active asteroids—asteroids with comet-like tails or comae. We also set out to identify other unusual active solar system objects, such as active Centaurs, active quasi-Hilda asteroids (QHAs), and Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Active objects are rare in large part because they are difficult to identify, so we ask volunteers to assist us in searching for active bodies in our collection of millions of images of known minor planets. We produced these cutout images with our project pipeline that makes use of publicly available Dark Energy Camera data. Since the project launch, roughly 8300 volunteers have scrutinized some 430,000 images to great effect, which we describe in this work. In total, we have identified previously unknown activity on 15 asteroids, plus one Centaur, that were thought to be asteroidal (i.e., inactive). Of the asteroids, we classify four as active QHAs, seven as JFCs, and four as active asteroids, consisting of one main-belt comet (MBC) and three MBC candidates. We also include our findings concerning known active objects that our program facilitated, an unanticipated avenue of scientific discovery. These include discovering activity occurring during an orbital epoch for which objects were not known to be active, and the reclassification of objects based on our dynamical analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Debiasing the NEOWISE Cryogenic Mission Comet Populations

We use NEOWISE data from the four-band and three-band cryogenic phases of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mission to constrain size distributions of the comet populations and debias measurements of the short- and long-period comet (LPC) populations. We find that the fit to the debiased LPC population yields a cumulative size−frequency distribution (SFD) power-law slope (β) of −1.0 ± 0.1, while the debiased Jupiter-family comet (JFC) SFD has a steeper slope with β = −2.3 ± 0.2. The JFCs in our debiased sample yielded a mean nucleus size of 1.3 km in diameter, while the LPCs’ mean size is roughly twice as large, 2.1 km, yielding mean size ratios (〈D{sub LPC}〉/〈D{sub JFC}〉) that differ by a factor of 1.6. Over the course of the 8 months of the survey, our results indicate that the number of LPCs passing within 1.5 au are a factor of several higher than previous estimates, while JFCs are within the previous range of estimates of a few thousand down to sizes near 1.3 km in diameter. Finally, we also observe evidence for structure in the orbital distribution of LPCs, with an overdensity of comets clustered near 110° inclination and perihelion near 2.9 au that is not attributable to observational bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the Origins of Comets as Revealed through Infrared High-resolution Spectroscopy I. Molecular Abundances

We report and analyze updated molecular abundances in 20 comets obtained by employing modern data reduction procedures and molecular models. Using box and scatter plots, we examine how the different molecular species are distributed among the comet population, while by means of pie charts, we investigate the relative proportions of these molecular species in each comet. We compare these results with the orbital parameters of the selected comets to identify trends related to their dynamical history. With these analyses, we tentatively identify at least three chemical classes based mainly on relative abundances of CO, CH{sub 3}OH, CH{sub 4}, C{sub 2}H{sub 6}, HCN, and NH{sub 3}. The combination of relative abundances and orbital parameters is then compared with recent chemical models of planetary system formation. This approach may help in investigating the origins and evolution of the material in cometary nuclei. Among other aspects, we underline the need to increase our sample size, especially for hypervolatiles (i.e., CH{sub 4} and CO) in Jupiter family comets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comet 322P/SOHO 1: an asteroid with the smallest perihelion distance?

We observed comet 322P/SOHO 1 (P/1999 R1) from the ground and with the Spitzer Space Telescope when it was between 2.2 and 1.2 au from the Sun. These are the first observations of any Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)-discovered periodic comet by a non-solar observatory and allow us to investigate its behavior under typical cometary circumstances. 322P appeared inactive in all images. Its light curve suggests a rotation period of 2.8 ± 0.3 hr and has an amplitude ≳0.3 mag, implying a density of at least 1000 kg m{sup −3}, considerably higher than that of any known comet. It has average colors of g{sup ′}−r{sup ′}=0.52±0.04 and r{sup ′}−i{sup ′}=0.03±0.06. We converted these to Johnson colors and found that the V − R color is consistent with average cometary colors, but R − I is somewhat bluer; these colors are most similar to V- and Q-type asteroids. Modeling of the optical and IR photometry suggests it has a diameter of 150–320 m and a geometric albedo of 0.09–0.42, with diameter and albedo inversely related. Our upper limits to any undetected coma are still consistent with a sublimation lifetime shorter than the typical dynamical lifetimes for Jupiter-family comets. These results suggest that 322P may be of asteroidal origin and only active in the SOHO fields of view via processes different from the volatile-driven activity of traditional comets. If so, it has the smallest perihelion distance of any known asteroid.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

FORMATION OF CENTAURS’ RINGS THROUGH THEIR PARTIAL TIDAL DISRUPTION DURING PLANETARY ENCOUNTERS

Centaurs are minor planets orbiting between Jupiter and Neptune that have or had crossing orbits with one or more giant planets. Recent observations and reinterpretation of previous observations have revealed the existence of ring systems around 10199 Chariklo and 2060 Chiron. However, the origin of the ring systems around such a minor planet is still an open question. Here, we propose that the tidal disruption of a differentiated object that experiences a close encounter with a giant planet could naturally form diverse ring–satellite systems around the Centaurs. During the close encounter, the icy mantle of the passing object is preferentially ripped off by the planet's tidal force and the debris is distributed mostly within the Roche limit of the largest remnant body. Assuming the existence of a 20−50 wt% silicate core below the icy mantle, a disk of particles is formed when the objects pass within 0.4–0.8 of the planet's Roche limit with the relative velocity at infinity 3−6 km s{sup −1} and 8 hr initial spin period of the body. The resultant ring mass is 0.1%–10% of the central object's mass. Such particle disks are expected to spread radially, and materials spreading beyond the Roche limit would accrete into satellites. Our numerical results suggest that ring formation would be a natural outcome of such extreme close encounters, and Centaurs can naturally have such ring systems because they cross the orbits of the giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Carbon Monoxide in the Distantly Active Centaur (60558) 174P/Echeclus at 6 au

(60558) 174P/Echeclus is an unusual object that belongs to a class of minor planets called Centaurs, which may be intermediate between Kuiper Belt objects and Jupiter family comets. It is sporadically active throughout its orbit at distances too far for water ice, the source of activity for most comets, to sublimate. Thus, its coma must be triggered by another mechanism. In 2005, Echeclus had a strong outburst with peculiar behavior that raised questions about the nucleus’ homogeneity. To test nucleus models, we performed the most sensitive search to date for the highly volatile CO molecule via its J = 2-1 emission toward Echeclus during 2016 May–June (at 6.1 astronomical units from the Sun) using the Arizona Radio Observatory 10 m Submillimeter Telescope. We obtained a 3.6σ detection with a slightly blueshifted (δv = −0.55 ± 0.10 km s{sup −1}) and narrow (Δv {sub FWHM} = 0.53 ± 0.23 km s{sup −1}) line. The data are consistent with emission from a cold gas from the sunward side of the nucleus, as seen in two other comets at 6 au. We derive a production rate of Q(CO) = (7.7 ± 3.3) × 10{sup 26} mol s{sup −1}, which is capable of driving the estimated dust production rates. Echeclus’ CO outgassing rate is ∼40 times lower than what is typically seen for another Centaur at this distance, 29P/Schwassmann–Wachmann 1. We also used the IRAM 30 m telescope to search for the CO J = 2-1 line, and derive an upper limit that is above the SMT detection. Compared with the relatively unprocessed comet C/1995 O1 (Hale–Bopp), Echeclus produces significantly less CO, as do Chiron and four other Centaurs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the Altitude Distribution of Meteor Head Echoes Observed with HPLA Radars: Implications for the Radar Detectability of Meteoroid Populations

The altitude distribution of meteors detected by a radar is sensitive to the instrument’s response function and can thus provide insight into the physical processes involved in radar measurements. This, in turn, can be used to determine the rate of ablation and ionization of the meteoroids and ultimately the input flux on Earth. In this work, we model the radar meteor head echo altitude distribution for three High Power and Large Aperture radar systems, by considering meteoroid populations from the main cometary family sources. In this simulation, we first use the results of a dynamical model of small meteoroids impacting Earth’s upper atmosphere to model the incoming mass, velocity, and entry angular distributions. We then combine these with the Chemical Ablation Model and establish the meteoroid ionization rates as a function of mass, velocity, and entry angle in order to determine the altitude at which these radars should detect the produced meteors and the portion of produced meteors from each population that are detected by these radars. We explore different sizes of head plasma as well as the possible effects on radar scattering of the head echo aspect sensitivity. We find that the modeled altitude distributions are generally in good agreement with measurements, particularly for ultra-high-frequency radars. In addition, our results indicate that the number of particles from Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) required to fit the observations is lower than predicted by astronomical models. It is not clear yet if this discrepancy is due to the overprediction of JFC meteoroids by dynamical models or due to unaccounted physical processes in the treatment of ablation, ionization, and detections of meteoroids as they pass through Earth’s atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plasma mirror focal spot quality for glass and aluminum mirrors for laser pulses up to 20 ps

High-intensity short-pulse lasers are being pushed further as applications continue to demand higher laser intensities. Uses such as radiography and laser-driven particle acceleration require these higher intensities to produce the necessary x-ray and particle fluxes. Achieving these intensities, however, is limited by the damage threshold of costly optics and the complexity of target chambers. This is evidenced by the Advanced Radiographic Capability (ARC) short-pulse laser at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, producing four high-energy ≈1 kJ laser pulses at 30 ps pulse duration, being limited to an intensity of 10 18 W/cm 2 by the large focal spot size of ≈100 µm. Due to the setup complexity of NIF, changing the location of the final focusing parabola in order to improve the focal spot size is not an option. Therefore, this leads to the possible use of disposable ellipsoidal plasma mirrors (PMs) placed within the chamber, close to the target in an attempt to refocus the four ARC beams. However, the behavior of PMs at these relatively long pulse durations (tens of picoseconds) is not well characterized. The results from the COMET laser at the Jupiter Laser Facility carried out at 0.5 to 20 ps pulse durations on flat mirrors are presented as a necessary first step towards focusing curved mirrors. The findings show defocusing at longer pulse durations and higher intensities, with less degradation when using aluminum coated mirrors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Properties of the Bare Nucleus of Comet 96P/Machholz 1

We observed comet 96P/Machholz 1 on a total of nine nights before and after perihelion during its 2017/2018 apparition. Both its unusually small perihelion distance and the observed fragmentation during multiple apparitions make 96P an object of great interest. Our observations show no evidence of a detectable dust coma, implying that we are observing a bare nucleus at distances ranging from 2.3 to 3.8 au. Based on this assumption, we calculated its color and found average values of g′–r′ = 0.50 ± 0.04, r′–i′ = 0.17 ± 0.03, and i′–z′ = 0.06 ± 0.04. These are notably more blue than those of the nuclei of other Jupiter-family and long-period comets. Furthermore, assuming a bare nucleus, we found an equivalent nuclear radius of 3.4 ± 0.2 km with an axial ratio of at least 1.6 ± 0.1. The lightcurve clearly displays one large peak, one broad flat peak, and two distinct troughs, with a clear asymmetry that suggests that the shape of the nucleus deviates from that of a simple triaxial ellipsoid. This asymmetry in the lightcurve allowed us to constrain the nuclear rotation period to 4.10 ± 0.03 hr and 4.096 ± 0.002 hr before and after perihelion, respectively. Within the uncertainties, 96P’s rotation period does not appear to have changed throughout the apparition, and we conclude a maximum possible change in rotation period of 130 s. The observed properties were compared to those of comet 322P and interstellar object 1I/‘Oumuamua in an attempt to study the effects of close perihelion passages on cometary surfaces and their internal structure and the potential interstellar origin of 96P.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗