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At least 19 records

Impact of Penetrating Kelvin Waves on MJO Rainfall Propagation Through Deep Convection Modulation

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics. As MJOs propagate over the Indian Ocean, some of them can be penetrated by fast‐moving equatorial Kelvin waves originating to the west of the MJOs. Through a series of sensitivity experiments, we demonstrate that these penetrating Kelvin waves can modulate the eastward propagation speed of MJO rainfall. Deep convection in the western MJO rainfall envelope initiates more frequently and produces greater lifetime rainfall when a convectively active Kelvin phase is present, while the opposite occurs during a convectively suppressed Kelvin phase. This alteration in deep convection activity can lead to notable changes in the propagation of the large‐scale MJO rainfall envelope. The modulation of deep convection lifetime rainfall by penetrating Kelvin waves primarily occurs through their impact on deep convection rainfall area, which is closely related to the variations in lower‐tropospheric moisture induced by the Kelvin waves.

Chen, Xingchao [Pennsylvania State Univ., Universi↗

Convection–Kelvin Wave Coupling in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

A convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW) was observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean in early November 2011 during the DYNAMO field campaign. This study examines the structure of the CCKW event using two simulations made using the MPAS model: one with 3-km grid spacing without convective parameterization and another with a 15-km grid and parameterized convection. Both simulations qualitatively capture the observed structure of the CCKW, including its vertical tilt and progression of cloud/precipitation structures. The two simulations, however, differ substantially in the amplitude of the CCKW-associated precipitation. While the 3-km run realistically captures the observed modulation of precipitation by the CCKW, the 15-km simulation severely underestimates its magnitude. To understand the difference between the two MPAS simulations regarding wave–convection coupling within the CCKW, the relationship of precipitation with convective inhibition, saturation fraction, and surface turbulent fluxes is investigated. Results show that the 15-km simulation underestimates the magnitude of the CCKW precipitation peak in association with its unrealistically linear relationship between moisture and precipitation. Precipitation, both in observations and the 3-km run, is predominantly controlled by saturation fraction and this relationship is exponential. In contrast, the parameterized convection in the 15-km run is overly sensitive to convective inhibition and not sensitive enough to environmental moisture. The implications of these results on CCKW theories are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kelvin Waves during GOAmazon and Their Relationship to Deep Convection

The 2014–15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign over the central Amazon near Manaus, Brazil, occurred in coordination with the larger Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil: A Contribution to Cloud-Resolving Modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement (CHUVA) project across Brazil. These programs provide observations of convection over the central Amazon on diurnal to annual time scales. Here, we address the question of how Kelvin waves, observed in satellite observations of deep cloud cover over the GOAmazon region during the 2014–15 time period, modulate the growth, type, and organization of convection over the central Amazon. The answer to this question has implications for improved predictability of organized systems over the region and representation of convection and its growth on local to synoptic scales in global models. Our results demonstrate that Kelvin waves are strong modulators of synoptic-scale low- to midlevel free-tropospheric moisture, integrated moisture convergence, and surface heat fluxes. These regional modifications of the environment impact the local diurnal cycle of convection, favoring the development of mesoscale convective systems. As a result, localized rainfall is also strongly modulated, with the majority of rainfall in the GOAmazon region occurring during the passage of these systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Regionality of Moist Kelvin Waves and the MJO: The Critical Role of the Background Zonal Flow

Abstract A global model with superparameterized physics is used to shed light on the observed regionality of convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). A series of aquaplanet simulations over zonally uniform sea‐surface temperatures is performed, in which the axisymmetric structure of the background zonal flow is altered through nudging, while maintaining a quasi‐fixed rainfall climatology. Results show that nudging at the equator to match profiles typical of the Indo‐Pacific or eastern Pacific sectors yields eastward‐moving tropical rain spectra typical of those sectors. Two different mechanistic pathways are identified as being responsible for this mean‐flow dependence, in addition to Doppler shifting effects. The first is through shifts of the Rossby wave critical line in the subtropical upper troposphere that affect the lateral forcing of Kelvin‐mode circulations at the equator by eastward and equatorward‐propagating eddies impinging on the tropics from higher latitudes. The second is through changes in the strength of the mean cyclonic shear in the lower tropical troposphere that affect the degree to which intraseasonal fluctuations in Kelvin‐mode zonal winds modulate the activity of higher‐frequency equatorial Rossby‐type eddies. In cases where the mean low‐level cyclonic shear is enhanced, the strength of this modulation, referred to as “shear‐induced eddy modulation” or SIEM, is also seen to be enhanced, such that MJO‐like modes of variability are rendered either unstable or near neutral, depending on the strength of the shear.

Tulich, S. N.↗

Representation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves in Modern Reanalysis Products

Abstract This study aims to deepen our understanding of the destabilization mechanisms and the mean-state modulation of the convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs) while testing simple models for CCKWs. We examine CCKW precipitation, vertical structure, and energetics in four modern reanalyses: the fifth version of ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). The CCKW precipitation signal strength in the wavenumber–frequency domain and the geographical distribution of CCKW precipitation variability are reasonably represented in all reanalyses, although they commonly underestimate the amplitude of CCKW precipitation. Despite considerable interreanalysis differences in the vertical structure of temperature and diabatic heating anomalies, the eddy available potential energy (EAPE) generation within the CCKWs is found to be associated with the second baroclinic mode whereas the first baroclinic mode damps CCKW EAPE in three out of four reanalyses. Geographically, strong CCKW activity occurs in the areas of high mean-state sea surface temperature (SST), where the second mode EAPE generation is higher, mainly due to a stronger stratiform heating and a tighter wave–convection coupling. Our results are supportive of the simple models for CCKWs in which CCKWs are destabilized within the second baroclinic mode component.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Coupling Between Alfvén Wave and Kelvin–Helmholtz Waves in the Low Latitude Boundary Layer

The Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instability of magnetohydrodynamic surface waves at the low latitude boundary layer is examined using both an eigenfrequency analysis and a time-dependent wave simulation. The analysis includes the effects of sheared flow and Alfvén velocity gradient. When the magnetosheath flows are perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field direction, unstable KH waves that propagate obliquely to the sheared flow direction occur at the sheared flow surface when the Alfvén Mach number is higher than an instability threshold. Including a shear transition layer between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath leads to secondary KH waves (driven by the sheared flow) that are coupled to the resonant surface Alfvén wave. There are remarkable differences between the primary and the secondary KH waves, including wave frequency, the growth rate, and the ratio between the transverse and compressional components. The secondary KH wave energy is concentrated near the shear Alfvén wave frequency at the magnetosheath with a lower frequency than the primary KH waves. Although the growth rate of the secondary KH waves is lower than the primary KH waves, the threshold condition is lower, so it is expected that these types of waves will dominate at a lower Mach number. Because the transverse component of the secondary KH waves is stronger than that of the primary KH waves, more efficient wave energy transfer from the boundary layer to the inner magnetosphere is also predicted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Coupling between Alfven wave and Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in the low latitude boundary layer

The Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of magnetohydrodynamic surface waves at the low latitude boundary layer is examined using both an eigenfrequency analysis and a time-dependent wave simulation. The analysis includes the effects of sheared flow and Alfven velocity gradient. When the magnetosheath flows are perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field direction, unstable KH waves that propagate obliquely to the sheared flow direction occur at the sheared flow surface when the Alfv\'en Mach number is higher than an instability threshold. Including a shear transition layer between the magnetosphere and magnetosheath leads to secondary KH waves (driven by the sheared flow) that are coupled to the resonant surface Alfven wave. There are remarkable differences between the primary and the secondary KH waves including wave frequency, the growth rate, and the ratio between transverse and the compressional component. The secondary KH wave energy is concentrated near the shear Alfven wave frequency at the magnetosheath with a lower frequency than the primary KH waves. Although the growth rate of the secondary KH waves is lower than the primary KH waves, the threshold condition is lower, so it is expected that these types of waves will dominate at lower Mach number. Because the transverse component of the secondary KH waves is stronger than the primary KH waves, more efficient wave energy transfer from the boundary layer to the inner magnetosphere is also predicted.

Alfven wave↗

The role of equatorial waves in triggering precipitation extremes in the Maritime Continent

This review offers a comprehensive analysis of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and their pivotal role in driving precipitation extremes across the Maritime Continent. It examines the current understanding of CCEWs, evaluates the performance of numerical models and forecasting techniques in predicting these phenomena, and pinpoints critical areas for improvement. The discussion centers on three key types of equatorial waves: equatorial Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and mixed Rossby–gravity waves. By connecting scientific insights with practical forecasting applications, the review sheds light on the challenges of predicting these waves while identifying opportunities to advance both fundamental knowledge and forecasting accuracy. Designed as an educational resource, it targets operational forecasting centers, meteorologists, and researchers, aiming to enhance the prediction of extreme weather events in the region.

Maritime Continent↗

An experimental study of the existence regions and non-linear interactions of drift wave and Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in a linear magnetized plasma

Experimental observations of the intrinsic excitation and non-linear interactions of drift wave (DW) and Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) instabilities in a linear magnetized plasma column are presented. The experiments are carried out in the inverse mirror plasma experimental device (IMPED)—a cylindrical, magnetized, linear plasma machine designed to study low-frequency waves and instabilities in plasma. A novel feature of IMPED is the ability to control plasma profiles, such as the density n(r)⁠, electron temperature T e (r)⁠, and plasma potential V p (r) by varying the ratio Rm of the magnetic field in the main chamber to that in the source chamber. At high values of Rm, higher-density gradient scale length promotes the drift wave (DW) instability while lower Rm value results in a higher radial electric field, inducing a sheared poloidal flow that enhances the dominance of the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) mode. The background and fluctuating plasma parameters are characterized using various configurations of multiple in situ electric probes at different spatial locations to quantify the local gradients that excite the low-frequency primary instabilities. Statistical, spectral, and bispectral analysis of the density and potential signals help identify these modes in terms of wave number, frequency, phase, and amplitude and also delineate the nature of their non-linear interactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Mean Climate and Tropical Rainfall Variability in Aquaplanet Simulations Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere

Abstract Aquaplanet experiments are important tools for understanding and improving physical processes simulated by global models; yet, previous aquaplanet experiments largely differ in their representation of subseasonal tropical rainfall variability. This study presents results from aquaplanet experiments produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A)—a community model specifically designed to study weather and climate in a common framework. The mean climate and tropical rainfall variability simulated by MPAS‐A with varying horizontal resolution were compared against results from a recent suite of aquaplanet experiments. This comparison shows that, regardless of horizontal resolution, MPAS‐A produces the expected mean climate of an aquaplanet framework with zonally symmetric but meridionally varying sea‐surface temperature. MPAS‐A, however, has a stronger signal of tropical rainfall variability driven by convectively coupled equatorial waves. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, physics packages, and vertical grids consistently show the presence of those waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves, in phase with lower‐tropospheric convergence. Other models do not capture such rainfall‐kinematics phasing. These results suggest that simulated tropical rainfall variability depends not only on the cumulus parameterization (as suggested by previous studies) but also on the coupling between physics and dynamics of climate and weather prediction models.

Rios‐Berrios, R.↗

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM↗

Remote Influence of Andean Convection on Amazonian Rainfall and Its Mechanisms

Models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 produce too much precipitation over the Andes but too little over the Amazon or the Wet Andes-Dry Amazon (WADA) bias pattern. Unlike the conventional view that convection parameterization and land model deficiencies can contribute to Amazonian rainfall biases, we approach this long-standing biased model behavior through the lens of Andean convection. Using Community Earth System Model v1.1 and focusing on the wet season, our mechanism-denial experiments demonstrate that Andean convection notably reduces precipitation over the Amazon during austral summer. The Andean forced Amazonian response operates on weather timescale. Furthermore, the reduction of Amazonian rainfall is detectable within a few hours after initial Andean forcing. The precipitation response is primarily driven by variations in the moisture budget and is moderated by changes in convective available potential energy over the Amazon. Changes in the total advection of moisture over the Amazon are dominated by the vertical advection term and can be attributed to discrepancies in the dynamic omega field. In the experiments, the Andean east flank region is scrutinized where the vertical velocity and moisture fields play an intermediary role for the Andean driven WADA connection. The Andean forcing induces descending anomalies on the Andean east flank. The disturbances of wind and geopotential fields over the Andean east flank propagate eastward via Kelvin waves. Over the Amazon, descending anomalies and advective drying lead to reduction of mid-to-high level cloud, increase of shortwave cloud forcing and surface net radiation, and enhancement of themodynamic stability and rainfall reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Microphysics and Convection Schemes on the Mean‐State and Variability of Clouds and Precipitation in the E3SM Atmosphere Model

Skillful representation of tropical variability and diurnal cycle of precipitation has remained a challenge in global atmosphere models, and often improvements in the variability lead to degradation in the mean‐state. Here, we introduce a configuration of the E3SM Atmosphere Model with a new large‐scale microphysics scheme and several enhancements to the deep convective scheme that improves the variability. The new configuration improves various modes of convectively‐coupled equatorial waves, with increased strength of Kelvin waves and more coherent eastward propagation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific Ocean. The same configuration also improves the phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, particularly over the continental United States in the boreal summer and over Tropical land regions. Previous studies have shown that, individually taken, some of the deep convective enhancements can improve certain aspects of the variability, and here we show that combining their effects can lead to robust improvements in the variability. This model configuration can form the basis for future studies to examine the response of tropical and diurnal variability under various climate states and their relationships with other modes of variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition in the Amazon (Final Report)

The frequent and extensive deep cloud formations over the Amazon Basin provide a vast area of atmospheric heating in the Tropics, forcing large-scale global circulations on daily to secular time scales. Motivated by the importance of these systems to the global climate system and the well-documented seasonal cycle in rainfall over the Amazon Basin, this study focused on improving understanding of the processes governing these systems on seasonal time scales and their impact on the typical growth of convection from early afternoon through evening, termed the shallow-to-deep transition. This study is based on observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) near Manacapuru, Brazil collected during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign from 1 January 2014 to 30 November 2015, together with total column water vapor (CWV) and surface meteorological observations from a dense Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network within 50 km of the AMF site provided by the CHUVA Program collected in coordination with the GOAmazon campaign. The specific objectives of this study were to address the following questions: 1) What environmental conditions support the shallow-to-deep convective transition over the Central Amazon? 2) How does the relative importance of these conditions compare during the wet and dry seasons? 3) How are these conditions modulated by basin-scale transient forcing? 4) How well are these processes captured by regional model simulations convective resolving scale? Our main hypothesis was that intra-seasonal atmospheric disturbances were a primary driver of rainfall during the wet season in the Central Amazon, while localized surface heating of the land was the primary driver of enhanced rainfall during the dry season. Overall, our findings supported our hypothesis, with the convectively active phase of atmospheric Kelvin waves strongly favoring the development of larger, more organized rain systems during the wet season, while localized isolated deep convection dominated the types of rain events seen during the dry season. These results have implications for the predictability of rainfall over the Central Amazon and for its representation in climate and weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equatorial waves triggering extreme rainfall and floods in southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia

On the basis of detailed analysis of a case study and long-term climatology, it is shown that equatorial waves and their interactions serve as precursors for extreme rain and flood events in the central Maritime Continent region of southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia. Meteorological conditions on January 22, 2019, leading to heavy rainfall and devastating flooding in this area were studied. It is shown that a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) and a convectively coupled Rossby wave (CCERW) embedded within the larger-scale envelope of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) enhanced convective phase, contributed to the onset of a mesoscale convective system which developed over the Java Sea. Low-Level convergence from the CCKW forced mesoscale convective organization and orographic ascent of moist air over the slopes of southwest Sulawesi. Climatological analysis shows that 92 % of December-January-February floods and 76% of extreme rain events in this region were immediately preceded by positive low-level westerly wind anomalies. It is estimated that both CCKWs and CCERWs propagating over Sulawesi double the chance of floods and extreme rain event development, which the probability of such hazardous events occurring during their combined activity is eight times greater than on a random day. While the MJO is a key component shaping tropical atmospheric variability, it is shown that its usefulness as a single factor for extreme weather-driven hazard prediction is limited.

Latos, Beata↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Modulated by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce over 50% of tropical precipitation and account for the majority of extreme rainfall and flooding events. MCSs are considered the building blocks of larger-scale convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). While CCEWs can provide favorable environments for convection, how CCEWs can systematically impact organized convection and thereby MCS characteristics is less clear. We examine this question by analyzing a global MCS tracking data set. During the active phase of CCEWs, MCS frequency increases and MCSs rain harder, produce more lifetime total rain, and grow larger in size. The probability of extreme MCSs also elevates. These changes are most pronounced when MCSs are associated with Kelvin waves and tropical depression-type waves while less so with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Furthermore, these results can be benchmarks to improve model representation of MCS interactions with large-scale circulations and can be leveraged for operational forecasts of high-impact MCSs at extended lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum turbulence, superfluidity, non-Markovian dynamics, and wave function thermalization

While quantum turbulence has been addressed both experimentally (predominantly for superfluid He 4 and He 3 ) and theoretically, the dynamics of various ensembles of quantized vortices has been followed in time only until the vortices have decayed into phonons. How this “thermalization” is achieved is still an unaddressed and thus an unelucidated question. The unitary Fermi gas (UFG) is a unique quantum system, which has no classical counterpart and is of relevance to neutron stars, cold atoms, condensed-matter and nuclear many-body systems. The non-Markovian evolution of an isolated UFG is put in evidence and its entire nonequilibrium evolution can be studied theoretically within a unified theoretical framework. The initial lattice of quantum vortices and antivortices evolves through a couple of vortex tangles and excitation of Kelvin waves, where vortices cross and reconnect, until very slowly thermalization sets in. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improved Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon in the High-resolution CESM1 and Its Causes

Based on the high- and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the high-resolution models. Here, the reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling. Therefore, the better simulations of air-sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗