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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid Hydrologic Modeling and Basin Planning

This paper discusses research methodology to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapsfor the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) for basin planning, using both MODIS and Landsat satellitedata. The 2010 MODIS MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data was processed into monthlyNDVI maps with the Time Series Product Tool software package and then used to classify regionallycommon forest and agricultural LULC types. Dry season circa 2010 Landsat top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics were classified to map locally common LULC types. Unsupervised ISODATAclustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. MODIS and Landsat classifications werecombined with GIS methods to derive final 250-m LULC maps for Sub-basins (SBs) 1–8 of the LMB.The SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes was assessed for accuracy. This assessment compared randomlocations for sampled types on the SB 7 LULC map to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs,MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data, and Mekong River Commissiondata (e.g., crop calendars). The SB 7 LULC map showed an overall agreement to reference data of~81%. By grouping three deciduous forest classes into one, the overall agreement improved to ~87%.The project enabled updated regional LULC maps that included more detailed agriculture LULCtypes. LULC maps were supplied to project partners to improve use of Soil andWater AssessmentTool for modeling hydrology and water use, plus enhance LMB water and disaster managementin a region vulnerable to flooding, droughts, and anthropogenic change as part of basin planningand assessment.

land use land cover mapping; SWAT hydrologic model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global 10 m Land Use Land Cover Datasets: A Comparison of Dynamic World, World Cover and Esri Land Cover

The European Space Agency’s Sentinel satellites have laid the foundation for global land use land cover (LULC) mapping with unprecedented detail at 10 m resolution. We present a cross-comparison and accuracy assessment of Google’s Dynamic World (DW), ESA’s World Cover (WC) and Esri’s Land Cover (Esri) products for the first time in order to inform the adoption and application of these maps going forward. For the year 2020, the three global LULC maps show strong spatial correspondence (i.e., near-equal area estimates) for water, built area, trees and crop LULC classes. However, relative to one another, WC is biased towards over-estimating grass cover, Esri towards shrub and scrub cover and DW towards snow and ice. Using global ground truth data with a minimum mapping unit of 250 m 2 , we found that Esri had the highest overall accuracy (75%) compared to DW (72%) and WC (65%). Across all global maps, water was the most accurately mapped class (92%), followed by built area (83%), tree cover (81%) and crops (78%), particularly in biomes characterized by temperate and boreal forests. The classes with the lowest accuracies, particularly in the tundra biome, included shrub and scrub (47%), grass (34%), bare ground (57%) and flooded vegetation (53%). When using European ground truth data from LUCAS (Land Use/Cover Area Frame Survey) with a minimum mapping unit of <100 m 2 , we found that WC had the highest accuracy (71%) compared to DW (66%) and Esri (63%), highlighting the ability of WC to resolve landscape elements with more detail compared to DW and Esri. Although not analyzed in our study, we discuss the relative advantages of DW due to its frequent and near real-time data delivery of both categorical predictions and class probability scores. We recommend that the use of global LULC products should involve critical evaluation of their suitability with respect to the application purpose, such as aggregate changes in ecosystem accounting versus site-specific change detection in monitoring, considering trade-offs between thematic resolution, global versus. local accuracy, class-specific biases and whether change analysis is necessary. We also emphasize the importance of not estimating areas from pixel-counting alone but adopting best practices in design-based inference and area estimation that quantify uncertainty for a given study area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Application of Remote Sensing Data to GIS Studies of Land Use, Land Cover, and Vegetation Mapping in the State of Hawaii

A land cover-vegetation map with a base classification system for remote sensing use in a tropical island environment was produced of the island of Hawaii for the State of Hawaii to evaluate whether or not useful land cover information can be derived from Landsat TM data. In addition, an island-wide change detection mosaic combining a previously created 1977 MSS land classification with the TM-based classification was produced. In order to reach the goal of transferring remote sensing technology to State of Hawaii personnel, a pilot project was conducted while training State of Hawaii personnel in remote sensing technology and classification systems. Spectral characteristics of young island land cover types were compared to determine if there are differences in vegetation types on lava, vegetation types on soils, and barren lava from soils, and if they can be detected remotely, based on differences in pigments detecting plant physiognomic type, health, stress at senescence, heat, moisture level, and biomass. Geographic information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) were used to assist in image rectification and classification. GIS was also used to produce large-format color output maps. An interactive GIS program was written to provide on-line access to scanned photos taken at field sites. The pilot project found Landsat TM to be a credible source of land cover information for geologically young islands, and TM data bands are effective in detecting spectral characteristics of different land cover types through remote sensing. Large agriculture field patterns were resolved and mapped successfully from wildland vegetation, but small agriculture field patterns were not. Additional processing was required to work with the four TM scenes from two separate orbits which span three years, including El Nino and drought dates. Results of the project emphasized the need for further land cover and land use processing and research. Change in vegetation composition was noted in the change detection image.

Hogan, Christine A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SERVIR: Cross-Comparison of Carbon Emission Estimates Based on Variable Land Use Land Cover Changes within SERVIR Focus Regions

Deforestation in the tropics contributes approximately one-fifth of the annual global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In an effort to reduce GHG emissions, SERVIR - a joint USAID and NASA initiative - is currently implementing the SERVIR CArbon Pilot (S-CAP) activity. By developing a comprehensive CO2 tracking system in Google Earth Engine based on both remotely sensed data and in situ observations, S-CAP aims to build capacity within the SERVIR regional hubs to improve decision making and local monitoring efforts surrounding GHG emissions. The S-CAP estimations are being completed throughout 11 pilot countries within the SERVIR regions of Asia, Africa, and the Americas to integrate partner contributions and local input into the development process. These emission estimate calculations use country-level REDD+ FREL reported values, global remotely sensed data (e.g. Global Forest Watch) and regional datasets and are completed using the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. From the S-CAP activity thus far, country CO2 estimations had varied differences, ranging from 56% to 197% between their lowest and highest estimates. The results from this study show that CO2 emission estimates can differ greatly depending on the land cover data sets used as well as the biomass values, and how a comprehensive database is essential in understanding the full range of impacts that land cover change has in these regions. Using this ensemble approach, SERVIR hubs can better select the most appropriate datasets available for estimating emissions.

Carbon Emission↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Land Use Land Cover Change Mapping Products in Aiding Coastal Habitat Conservation and Restoration Efforts of the Mobile Bay NEP

The Mobile Bay region has undergone significant land use land cover change (LULC) over the last 35 years, much of which is associated with urbanization. These changes have impacted the region s water quality and wildlife habitat availability. In addition, much of the region is low-lying and close to the Gulf, which makes the region vulnerable to hurricanes, climate change (e.g., sea level rise), and sometimes man-made disasters such as the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Land use land cover change information is needed to help coastal zone managers and planners to understand and mitigate the impacts of environmental change on the region. This presentation discusses selective results of a current NASA-funded project in which Landsat data over a 34-year period (1974-2008) is used to produce, validate, refine, and apply land use land cover change products to aid coastal habitat conservation and restoration needs of the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MB NEP). The project employed a user defined classification scheme to compute LULC change mapping products for the entire region, which includes the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Additional LULC change products have been computed for select coastal HUC-12 sub-watersheds adjacent to either Mobile Bay or the Gulf of Mexico, as part of the MB NEP watershed profile assessments. This presentation will include results of additional analyses of LULC change for sub-watersheds that are currently high priority areas, as defined by MB NEP. Such priority sub-watersheds include those that are vulnerable to impacts from the DWH oil spill, as well as sub-watersheds undergoing urbanization. Results demonstrating the nature and permanence of LULC change trends for these higher priority sub-watersheds and results characterizing change for the entire 34-year period and at approximate 10-year intervals across this period will also be presented. Future work will include development of value-added coastal habitat quality assessment products that will be used by the MB NEP and its partners in the planning of coastal conservation and restoration activities.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) to Address Induced Land Use Changes and Other Indirect Effects of Clean Fuel Production for R&D GREET ® 2024

Since the late 2000s, biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA) has included induced land use change (ILUC) and other indirect effects (I-effects) of large-scale feedstock production for biofuels. In ILUC and I-effect emissions modeling, economic models are used to simulate the area of land conversion among different land types and other I-effects such as non-feedstock crop production and livestock production that are driven by the scenarios of biofuel production volume shocks. On the other hand, emission factors (EF) models estimate carbon stock changes and GHG emissions associated with these changes. Finally, the area and type of ILUC and I-effects are combined with the EFs to estimate the biofuel ILUC/I-effect GHG emissions in the unit of grams of CO 2 equivalent per MJ biofuel produced (g CO 2 e/MJ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations: GCAM-Demeter-SELECT Annualized Land Use and Land Cover, Wood Harvest and Fertilization Data with Dynamic Urbanization Harmonized to CLM Land Definitions at 0.125 Degrees

Annualized land use land cover data, including wood harvest and fertilizer use data from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) downscaled to 0.125 degrees for couping with the Community Land Model (CLM). GCAM here refers to GCAM-USA v5.3.im3 which has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics. Data is also harmonized with future urbanization projections from the Spatially-Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City developmenT (SELECT) model. Projections/Data are generated using the demeter land use and land cover downscaling model. Original projections were generated at 0.05 degrees before being aggregared to 0.125 degrees. Projections are available for 8 alternative scenarios. Two versions of final data are included- one with managed forests or harvested forest area per pixel broken out and one with the same aggregated into total forests. Following folders are included: demeter_78_PFT_output:This is the final output of dynamic land use land cover change for 78 PFTs as required by CLM raw_outputs_incl_managed_forest: This is the final output but with managed forests broken out as a different PFT. Essentially a 79th PFT is added. wood_harvest_outputs: Wood harvest output per pixel in gC/m2 fertilization_outputs: Fertilizer use per pixel in gN/m2 Each NetCDF file in each folder represents a projection for a separate year, scenario. Land use outputs are organized as PFT level data saved as subdata. Link to GCAM version used- https://data.msdlive.org/records/yb23g-44274 Link to SELECT documentation -https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815219301707 Link to CLM documentation- - https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm In case of questions contact- kanishka.narayan@pnnl.gov

GCAM-USA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interdisciplinary Workshop on the Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics (Final Report)

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) convened a week-long interdisciplinary science workshop from September 15-20, 2019 entitled, “Impacts of Land Use and Land Management on Earth System Evolution, Biogeochemical Cycles, Extremes, and Inter-Sectoral Dynamics.” The purpose of the workshop was to advance research on the impacts of land use and land management on climate, carbon emissions, and extremes, as well as the impact of land-use change on important societal issues such as food, water, and energy security. The workshop was co-chaired by Kate Calvin (PNNL), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), and Dave Lawrence (National Center for Atmospheric Research). Co-funders of the workshop included NASA, NOAA, and travel support for European colleagues through CRESCENDO. This workshop brought together 31 professionals with expertise across biogeochemistry, climate impacts, mitigation, land use datasets, and societal impacts to coordinate on upcoming research and publications on the role of biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface and their implications for climate, as conducted through the Land Use model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), which is part of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A primary outcome of the meeting was the definition and planning of a series of LUMIP papers that will rely on the LUMIP and CMIP6 simulations. By the end of the meeting more than twenty papers and paper lead authors had been identified and scoped out. Around ten of these papers were submitted by the December 31, 2019 IPCC deadline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Land Use and Land Cover Change, Urban Heat Island Phenomenon, and Health Implications: A Remote Sensing Approach

Land use and land cover maps of Atlanta Metropolitan Area in Georgia were produced from Landsat MSS and TM images for 1973,1979,1983,1987,1992, and 1997, spanning a period of 25 years. Dramatic changes in land use and land cover have occurred with loss of forest and cropland to urban use. In particular, low-density urban use, which includes largely residential use, has increased by over 119% between 1973 and 1997. These land use and land cover changes have drastically altered the land surface characteristics. An analysis of Landsat images revealed an increase in surface temperature and a decline in NDVI from 1973 to 1997. These changes have forced the development of a significant urban heat island effect and an increase in ground level ozone production to such an extent, that Atlanta has violated EPA's ozone level standard in recent years. The urban heat island initiated precipitation events that were identified between 1996 and 2000 tended to occur near high-density urban areas but outside the I-285 loop that traverses around the Central Business District, i.e. not in the inner city area, but some in close proximity to the highways. The health implications were investigated by comparing the spatial patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions, the two ingredients that form ozone by reacting with sunlight, with those of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. A clear core-periphery pattern was revealed for both VOC and NOx emissions, but the spatial pattern was more random in the cases of rates of cardiovascular and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Clearly, factors other than ozone pollution were involved in explaining the rates of these diseases. Further research is therefore needed to understand the health geography and its relationship to land use and land cover change as well as urban heat island effect. This paper illustrates the usefulness of a remote sensing approach for this purpose.

Lo, C. P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Land Use and Land Cover Dichotomy: A Comparison of Two Land Classification Systems in Support of Urban Earth Science Applications

One is likely to read the terms 'land use' and 'land cover' in the same sentence, yet these concepts have different origins and different applications. Land cover is typically analyzed by earth scientists working with remotely sensed images. Land use is typically studied by urban planners who must prescribe solutions that could prevent future problems. This apparent dichotomy has led to different classification systems for land-based data. The works of earth scientists and urban planning practitioners are beginning to come together in the field of spatial analysis and in their common use of new spatial analysis technology. In this context, the technology can stimulate a common 'language' that allows a broader sharing of ideas. The increasing amount of land use and land cover change challenges the various efforts to classify in ways that are efficient, effective, and agreeable to all groups of users. If land cover and land uses can be identified by remote methods using aerial photography and satellites, then these ways are more efficient than field surveys of the same area. New technology, such as high-resolution satellite sensors, and new methods, such as more refined algorithms for image interpretation, are providing refined data to better identify the actual cover and apparent use of land, thus effectiveness is improved. However, the closer together and the more vertical the land uses are, the more difficult the task of identification is, and the greater is the need to supplement remotely sensed data with field study (in situ). Thus, a number of land classification methods were developed in order to organize the greatly expanding volume of data on land characteristics in ways useful to different groups. This paper distinguishes two land based classification systems, one developed primarily for remotely sensed data, and the other, a more comprehensive system requiring in situ collection methods. The intent is to look at how the two systems developed and how they can work together so that land based information can be shared among different users and compared over time.

McAllister, William K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗