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At least 19 records

Data Files for Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce.This data set includes all files that were produced and applied in the paper Runoff Evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for Permafrost Regions [Xiang et al. in review]. The paper is in review as of July 1 2025 in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-rich integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM’s parameterized representation of total runoff. This dataset contains 2 figure image files (*.png, *jpg) that describe the study site and methods, as well as folders (Figure*.zip) that contain the associated data files (*.csv, *.dat) and python code notebooks (*.ipynb) for figures 3-7 in the paper. Jupyter notebook (*.ipynb) files that produce the figure files using the associated data files will run within a python environment configured with Jupyter Lab or Notebook packages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch: integrated modeling of subnational US energy, water, and land systems within a global framework

Abstract. This paper describes GCAM-USA v5.3_water_dispatch, an open-source model that represents key interactions across economic, energy, water, and land systems in a consistent global framework with subnational detail in the United States. GCAM-USA divides the world into 31 geopolitical regions outside the United States (US) and represents the US economy and energy systems in 51 state-level regions (50 states plus the District of Columbia). The model also includes 235 water basins and 384 land use regions, and 23 of each fall at least partially within the United States. GCAM-USA offers a level of process and temporal resolution rare for models of its class and scope, including detailed subnational representation of US water demands and supplies and sub-annual operations (day and night for each month) in the US electric power sector. GCAM-USA can be used to explore how changes in socioeconomic drivers, technological progress, or policy impact demands for (and production of) energy, water, and crops at a subnational level in the United States while maintaining consistency with broader national and international conditions. This paper describes GCAM-USA's structure, inputs, and outputs, with emphasis on new model features. Four illustrative scenarios encompassing varying socioeconomic and energy system futures are used to explore subnational changes in energy, water, and land use outcomes. We conclude with information about how public users can access the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Simulating Dynamic Roots in the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model

Abstract Roots are important contributors to plant development, functioning to provide nutrients and water for plant growth. However, roots and their functions are often simplified in Earth system models, which limit the feedback of root foraging strategy on plant productivity, and their impacts on the carbon cycle. The goal of this study is to introduce a new method to resolve the vertical structure of roots over time. The method allows plasticity of rooting depth distribution under nonuniform profiles of water and nitrogen, which influences aboveground dynamics. The dynamic root model optimizes root distribution for both water and nitrogen uptake but gives priority to plant water demands. I implement this new method in the Energy Exascale Earth System model. The resulting root distribution maintains agreement with observations in most ecosystems and marginally improves the gross primary productivity estimated by the model, compared to satellite observations. Increases in gross primary productivity are simulated in desert and boreal ecosystems. However, the model does not capture deep roots in the dry tropics, and therefore, productivity losses are observed in parts of the Amazon and the African savannah. I discuss details of the model algorithm, along with some sensitivity studies that shed light on the model behavior in water‐limited ecosystems. The study shows that additional model processes, such as climate dependent root depth, root hydraulics, root form and function, and better nitrogen uptake, should be considered to improve the root water uptake in the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Moist Potential Vorticity Model for Midlatitude Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems over Land

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) bring large amounts of rainfall and strong wind gusts to the midlatitude land regions, with significant impacts on local weather and hydrologic cycle. However, weather and climate models face a huge challenge in accurately modeling the MCS life cycle and the associated precipitation, highlighting an urgent need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of MCS initiation and propagation. From a theoretical perspective, a suitable model to capture the realistic properties of MCSs and isolate the bare-bones mechanisms for their initiation, intensification, and eastward propagation is still lacking. To simulate midlatitude MCSs over land, we develop a simple moist potential vorticity (PV) model that readily describes the interactions among PV perturbations, air moisture, and soil moisture. Multiple experiments with or without various environmental factors and external forcing are used to investigate their impacts on MCS dynamics and mesoscale circulation vertical structures. The result shows that mechanical forcing can induce lower-level updraft and cooling, providing favorable conditions for MCS initiation. A positive feedback among surface winds, evaporation rate, and air moisture similar to the wind-induced surface heat exchange over tropical ocean is found to support MCS intensification. Both background surface westerlies and vertical westerly wind shear are shown to provide favorable conditions for the eastward propagation of MCSs. Last, our result highlights the crucial role of stratiform heating in shaping mesoscale circulation response. In conclusion, the model should serve as a useful tool for understanding the fundamental mechanisms of MCS dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Moirai Land Data System (Moirai) v3.0.0

The Moirai Land Data System (Moirai LDS) is designed to produce recent historical land data inputs for the AgLU module of GCAM data system , but the Moirai LDS outputs could also be used by other models/applications. The Moirai are the Greek Fates, and this software is named Moirai to represent the fundamental influence of land data inputs on model outcomes. The primary function of the Moirai LDS is to combine spatially explicit input data (e.g., raster images) with tabular input data (e.g., crop price table) to generate tabular output data for a suite of variables. Some of these outputs replace the data provide by the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and other data replace and augment the original GCAM GIS processing. The Moirai LDS output data are aggregated by Geographic Land Unit (GLU) within each country. The GLU coverage is an input to the Moirai LDS (as a thematic raster image and an associated CSV file that maps the thematic integers to names), and the GLU boundaries can be determined arbitrarily. Previous versions of GCAM (and Moirai LDS) used only bioclimatic Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) and corresponding data that were provided by GTAP, as the GLUs. As a result, some AEZ terminology still exists in the code, but this terminology now refers more generally to GLUs. The Moirai LDS now enables any set of boundaries to be used as GLUs (including AEZs), allowing for more flexible generation of land use region boundaries (defined as the intersection of GLUs with geopolitical regions). The current default set of GLUs is the same set of 235 global watersheds as used by the GCAM water module. The GCAM 5.1 geopolitical regions (32 or 14) are included and used as inputs to Moirai to generate a mapping file between the Moirai outputs, which are at the level of the intersection between the GLUs and the country boundaries, and the geopolitical regions. The diagnostics scripts use this geopolitical region mapping in some cases. Moirai can also recalibrate three of the outputs (crop production, harvested area, and land rent) to a specified year that is the center of a five-year averaging window. No recalibration retains the circa 2000, 7-year average of the source data. The cucrrency-year for land rent can also be specified, and the default is 2001 to match the GTAP data.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

Data from: Ecosystem carbon exchange on conversion of Conservation Reserve Program grasslands to annual and perennial cropping systems

Land use changes into and out of agricultural production may substantially influence ecosystem carbon (C) balance for many years. We examined ecosystem C balances for eight years after the conversion of 22 year-old Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands and formerly tilled agricultural fields (AGR) to annual (continuous no-till corn) and perennial (switchgrass and restored prairie) cropland. An unconverted CRP field (CRP-Ref) was maintained as a historical reference. Ecosystem C balance was assessed using adjusted net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEEadj) calculated by adding C removed in harvested biomass to NEE measured using eddy covariance method. The cumulative NEEadj of the corn and perennial systems on former CRP fields showed that these systems were a net C source to the atmosphere over the 8-year period while on former AGR fields, the perennial systems were net C sinks and the corn system near-neutral. The CRP-Ref was near neutral until a drought year when it became a net source. The corn system on the CRP field will likely reach a new lower soil C equilibrium at least 14 years after conversion but will never regain the C lost upon conversion under current no-till management with residue partially removed. On the other hand, the perennial systems could fully regain in ~14 years the C lost following conversion. The cumulative NEEadj of the corn systems exhibited a higher C emission than did the perennial systems within the same land use histories, reflecting the dominant role of crop type and management in agricultural ecosystem C balance. Results suggest that converting croplands to grasslands results in immediate C gains whereas converting grasslands to croplands results in permanent (no-till corn with partial residue removal) or temporary (perennial herbaceous crops) net C loss to the atmosphere. This has a significant implications for global climate change mitigation where biomass production from annual and perennial crops is promoted to avoid fossil-fuel C emissions (biofuel) or to remove CO2 from the atmosphere (bioenergy C capture and storage).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A landing pad system for multicopy gene integration in Issatchenkia orientalis

The robust nature of the non-conventional yeast Issatchenkia orientalis allows it to grow under highly acidic conditions and therefore, has gained increasing interest in producing organic acids using a variety of carbon sources. Recently, the development of a genetic toolbox for I. orientalis, including an episomal plasmid, characterization of multiple promoters and terminators, and CRISPR-Cas9 tools, has eased the metabolic engineering efforts in I. orientalis. However, multiplex engineering is still hampered by the lack of efficient multicopy integration tools. To facilitate the construction of large, complex metabolic pathways by multiplex CRISPR-Cas9-mediated genome editing, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to identify and prioritize genome-wide intergenic loci and characterized 47 gRNAs located in 21 intergenic regions. These loci are screened for guide RNA cutting efficiency, integration efficiency of a gene cassette, the resulting cellular fitness, and GFP expression level. We further developed a landing pad system using components from these well-characterized loci, which can aid in the integration of multiple genes using single guide RNA and multiple repair templates of the user’s choice. We have demonstrated the use of the landing pad for simultaneous integrations of 2, 3, 4, or 5 genes to the target loci with efficiencies greater than 80%. As a proof of concept, we showed how the production of 5-aminolevulinic acid can be improved by integrating five copies of genes at multiple sites in one step. We have further demonstrated the efficiency of this tool by constructing a metabolic pathway for succinic acid production by integrating five gene expression cassettes using a single guide RNA along with five different repair templates, leading to the production of 9 g/L of succinic acid in batch fermentations. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of a single gRNA-mediated CRISPR platform to build complex metabolic pathways in a non-conventional yeast. This landing pad system will be a valuable tool for the metabolic engineering of I. orientalis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Landing Pad System for Multicopy Gene Integration in Issatchenkia orientalis

The robust nature of the non-conventional yeast Issatchenkia orientalis allows it to grow under highly acidic conditions and therefore, has gained increasing interest in producing organic acids using a variety of carbon sources. Recently, the development of a genetic toolbox for I. orientalis, including an episomal plasmid, characterization of multiple promoters and terminators, and CRISPR-Cas9 tools, has eased the metabolic engineering efforts in I. orientalis. However, multiplex engineering is still hampered by the lack of efficient multicopy integration tools. To facilitate the construction of large, complex metabolic pathways by multiplex CRISPR-Cas9-mediated genome editing, we developed a bioinformatics pipeline to identify and prioritize genome-wide intergenic loci and characterized 47 gRNAs located in 21 intergenic regions. These loci are screened for guide RNA cutting efficiency, integration efficiency of a gene cassette, the resulting cellular fitness, and GFP expression level. We further developed a landing pad system using components from these well-characterized loci, which can aid in the integration of multiple genes using single guide RNA and multiple repair templates of the user’s choice. We have demonstrated the use of the landing pad for simultaneous integrations of 2, 3, 4, or 5 genes to the target loci with efficiencies greater than 80%. As a proof of concept, we showed how the production of 5-aminolevulinic acid can be improved by integrating five copies of genes at multiple sites in one step. We have further demonstrated the efficiency of this tool by constructing a metabolic pathway for succinic acid production by integrating five gene expression cassettes using a single guide RNA along with five different repair templates, leading to the production of 9 g/L of succinic acid in batch fermentations. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a single gRNA-mediated CRISPR platform to build complex metabolic pathways in a non-conventional yeast. This landing pad system will be a valuable tool for the metabolic engineering of I. orientalis.

Fatma, Zia↗

Linking Manganese Fractions and Organic Carbon in Soils of Contrasting Land Use Systems

Manganese (Mn) is an essential micronutrient that influences carbon (C) cycling by binding or oxidizing soil organic matter. Mn fractions in soil and their plant availability depend largely on soil pH, which is commonly altered by agricultural practices. Fractions of Mn in soils range from readily available (e.g., bioavailable Mn, exchangeable Mn) to stabilized (e.g., Mn-oxide minerals, Mn contained in silicates). Furthermore, the distribution of soil Mn with depth was assessed in contrasting land use systems (organic agriculture, conventional agriculture, and unmanaged forest) using a sequential extraction method that targets Mn fractions ranging in bioavailability. Both agricultural sites had similar amounts of total Mn but had available Mn (1–7% of total Mn) lower than that of the unmanaged forested site (15% of total Mn). Manganese and organic C were generally positively correlated, but this relationship depended on soil depth, Mn fractions, and concentrations, while land management change had little influence.

Crops↗

High-Resolution Image Products Acquired from Mid-Sized Uncrewed Aerial Systems for Land–Atmosphere Studies

We assess the viability of deploying commercially available multispectral and thermal imagers designed for integration on small uncrewed aerial systems (sUASs, <25 kg) on a mid-size Group-3-classification UAS (weight: 25–600 kg, maximum altitude: 5486 m MSL, maximum speed: 128 m/s) for the purpose of collecting a higher spatial resolution dataset that can be used for evaluating the surface energy budget and effects of surface heterogeneity on atmospheric processes than those datasets traditionally collected by instrumentation deployed on satellites and eddy covariance towers. A MicaSense Altum multispectral imager was deployed on two very similar mid-sized UASs operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aviation Facility. This paper evaluates the effects of flight on imaging systems mounted on UASs flying at higher altitudes and faster speeds for extended durations. We assess optimal calibration methods, acquisition rates, and flight plans for maximizing land surface area measurements. We developed, in-house, an automated workflow to correct the raw image frames and produce final data products, which we assess against known spectral ground targets and independent sources. We intend this manuscript to be used as a reference for collecting similar datasets in the future and for the datasets described within this manuscript to be used as launching points for future research.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Initial Land Use/Cover Distribution Substantially Affects Global Carbon and Local Temperature Projections in the Integrated Earth System Model

Initial land cover distribution varies among Earth system models, an uncertainty in initial conditions that can substantially affect carbon and climate projections. We use the integrated Earth System Model to show that a 3.9 M km2 difference in 2005 global forest area (9–14% of total forest area) generates uncertainties in initial atmospheric CO2 concentration, terrestrial carbon, and local temperature that propagate through a future simulation following the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. By 2095, the initial 6 ppmv uncertainty range increases to 9 ppmv and the initial 26 PgC uncertainty range in terrestrial carbon increases to 33 PgC. The initial uncertainty range in annual average local temperature of -0.74 to 0.96 °C persists throughout the future simulation, with a seasonal maximum in Dec-Jan-Feb. These results highlight the importance of accurately characterizing historical land use and land cover to reduce overall initial condition uncertainty.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗

Knowledge Graph for End-to-End Traceability of an Integrated Human-Earth System Model

Integrated human-Earth system models inform energy-water-land system dynamics and policies, yet their results are difficult to trace through input-data, model structure, scenario configurations, and solved outputs. Because this information is siloed across disconnected artifacts, process-based IAMs have historically lacked a unified, queryable representation. Such lack of traceability prevents researchers from systematically isolating the multi-sector drivers of complex outcomes (such as tracing water-scarcity results back to distant energy-system dynamics) or conducting holistic uncertainty attribution across hundreds of interacting parameters. To address this concern, our work documents the software engineering process of a knowledge graph that unifies these four layers for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA_Reference scenario, GCAM v9.1). The graph was built as a relational property graph in DuckDB from the run’s own artifacts: the input-preparation dependency map (gcamdata chunk map), the model’s XML input files, the run configuration, and the results database (BaseX), successfully mapping the model’s declared structure. The resulting graph comprises 204,321 nodes and 1,687,814 edges across 16 node types and 15 edge types, with approximately 16.3 million time-series values stored separately to maintain structural efficiency. To ensure representation fidelity, every edge carries an epistemic-status annotation recording the warrant for the relationship (structural, provenance, dependency, or model-derived), and a machine-readable provenance ledger classifying the origin of every schema element. Evaluation against a fixed five-benchmark suite with locked baselines reports zero structural orphans, zero dangling edge endpoints, and 100% of output-producing technologies traceable to raw input files. Two interactive interfaces present the graph, including a serverless browser application built on DuckDB-Wasm. By establishing the first end-to-end provenance framework for an IAM, this work enables researchers and scientists to systematically audit complex policy scenarios, debug model structures, and trace policy-relevant outputs to their data origins in real time.

Artifical Intelligence↗