Linear Covariance Analysis Framework for Aerospace Vehicle Trajectory Modeling and Parametric Design.
Abstract not provided.
Heflin, Lucas↗
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Linear Covariance Analysis Framework for Aerospace Vehicle Trajectory Modeling and Parametric Design.
Abstract not provided.
Whitten, William↗
Large-Scale Inference of Multivariate Regression for Heavy-Tailed and Asymmetric Data
Large-scale multivariate regression is a fundamental statistical tool with a wide range of applications. Here, this study considers the problem of simultaneously testing a large number of general linear hypotheses, encompassing covariate-effect analysis, analysis of variance, and model comparisons. The challenge that accompanies a large number of tests is the ubiquitous presence of heavy-tailed and/or highly skewed measurement noise, which is the main reason for the failure of conventional least squares-based methods. For large-scale multivariate regression, we develop a set of robust inference methods to explore data features such as heavy tailedness and skewness, which are not visible to least squares methods. The new testing procedure is based on the data-adaptive Huber regression and a new covariance estimator of regression estimates. Under mild conditions, we show that our methods produce consistent estimates of the false discovery proportion. Extensive numerical experiments and an empirical study on quantitative linguistics demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method over many state-of-the-art methods when the data are generated from heavy-tailed and/or skewed distributions.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Response of Ecosystem Productivity to High Vapor Pressure Deficit and Low Soil Moisture: Lessons Learned From the Global Eddy-Covariance Observations
Although there is mounting concern about how high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) affect ecosystem productivity, their relative importance is still under debate. Here, we comprehensively quantified the relative impacts of these two factors on ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) using observations from a global network of eddy-covariance towers and two approaches (sensitivity analysis and linear regression model). Both approaches agree that a higher percentage of sites experience GPP reduction from high VPD than from low SM over the growing season. However, the constraint of high VPD and low SM on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional types. Humid and mesic ecosystems including forests and grasslands are dominated by VPD, while the semi-arid and arid ecosystems including shrublands and savannas are dominated by SM. The varying dominant role of these two factors on GPP is closely related to plant stomatal behavior, as predicted by a stomatal conductance model. Additionally, we highlight the non-linear impact of SM on GPP during droughts and the possible underestimation of the SM effects for deep-rooted plants when only using surface-layer SM. Our results shed light on a better understanding of the impacts of VPD and SM on vegetation productivity, with important implications for modeling the response and feedback of ecosystem dynamics to current and future climates.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Statistical Interpolation Code for Ocean Analysis and Forecasting
Abstract We present a data assimilation package for use with ocean circulation models in analysis, forecasting, and system evaluation applications. The basic functionality of the package is centered on a multivariate linear statistical estimation for a given predicted/background ocean state, observations, and error statistics. Novel features of the package include support for multiple covariance models, and the solution of the least squares normal equations either using the covariance matrix or its inverse—the information matrix. The main focus of this paper, however, is on the solution of the analysis equations using the information matrix, which offers several advantages for solving large problems efficiently. Details of the parameterization of the inverse covariance using Markov random fields are provided and its relationship to finite-difference discretizations of diffusion equations are pointed out. The package can assimilate a variety of observation types from both remote sensing and in situ platforms. The performance of the data assimilation methodology implemented in the package is demonstrated with a yearlong global ocean hindcast with a 1/4° ocean model. The code is implemented in modern Fortran, supports distributed memory, shared memory, multicore architectures, and uses climate and forecasts compliant Network Common Data Form for input/output. The package is freely available with an open source license from www.tendral.com/tsis/ .
Srinivasan, Ashwanth↗
From Data to Insights: A Covariate Analysis of the IARPA BRIAR Dataset for Multimodal Biometric Recognition Algorithms at Altitude and Range
This paper examines covariate effects on fused whole body biometrics performance in the IARPA BRIAR dataset, specifically focusing on UAV platforms, elevated positions, and distances up to 1000 meters. The dataset includes outdoor videos compared with indoor images and controlled gait recordings. Normalized raw fusion scores relate directly to predicted false accept rates (FAR), offering an intuitive means for interpreting model results. A linear model is developed to predict biometric algorithm scores, analyzing their performance to identify the most influential covariates on accuracy at altitude and range. Weather factors like temperature, wind speed, solar loading, and turbulence are also investigated in this analysis. The study found that resolution and camera distance best predicted accuracy and findings can guide future research and development efforts in long-range/elevated/UAV biometrics and support the creation of more reliable and robust systems for national security and other critical domains.
Bolme, David↗
140,142 Ce Neutron Cross Section Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation
A resolved resonance region evaluation of 140,142 Ce was conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, this evaluation is based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture high-resolution measurements of nat Ce and 142 Ce conducted at JRC-Geel at the Geel Linear Accelerator facility. It is also based on recently measured thermal constants available from the EX FOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library and following a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance in formation was derived by the fit of these experimental datasets using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R-matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The resolved resonance region upper energy limit for 140 Ce was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. This new evaluation was found to be in good agreement not only with several integral quantities of interest to the reactor physics community, but also with the stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross section.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Water loss through evapotranspiration after precipitation events in bioenergy crops grown in similar climatic conditions
The relationship between precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) is critical to understanding water cycle related dynamics in ecosystems, including crops. Existing studies of bioenergy crops have primarily focused on annual or seasonal ET rates, with less attention given to the immediate ET response following precipitation events. This study examines the variation in ET rates in the days subsequent to precipitation events across various bioenergy crops—corn, switchgrass, and prairies—utilizing 13 years (2010–2022) of growing season data. Meteorological and eddy covariance flux data were collected from seven eddy covariance flux towers as part of the GLBRC scale-up experiment at the Kellogg Biological Station Long Term Ecological Research sites. The analysis revealed that average ET peaked the day after precipitation and declined linearly over the following days, with a statistically significant relationship (p-value = 0.00027, R2 = 0.96). Neither the type of biofuel vegetation nor the historical land use significantly influenced ET post-precipitation events (p-values = 0.53 and 0.153, respectively). Key predictors of ET following precipitation events include shortwave radiation, season, day of the year, ambient temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), long-wave radiation, precipitation amount, soil moisture, and annual variability. These findings enhance our comprehension of ET responses in bioenergy crop systems, with implications for water management in sustainable agriculture.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance
ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
R-matrix Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation of 140,142 Ce
Oak Ridge National Laboratory completed the resolved resonance region (RRR) evaluation of the two most abundant cerium isotopes, 140 Ce (88.45%) and 142 Ce (11.11%), as requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program. These evaluations are based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture measurements performed on nat Ce and highly enriched 142 Ce samples at the JRC-Geel Linear Accelerator facility, as well as measured thermal constants available from the EXFOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library followed by a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance information were derived by fitting these measured data using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R -matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The 140 Ce RRR upper energy limit was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. Updated statistical properties were obtained for the new evaluations and compared to those derived from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library. The new evaluation work improved some of the discrepancies found in previous work, such as the capture resonance integral and stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross sections. These integral quantities were mainly derived from the fit of the latest measured data, especially the neutron capture yield data for 142 Ce isotope.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
140,142 Ce Neutron Cross Section Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation [Abstract]
A resolved resonance region evaluation of 140,142 Ce has been carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, this evaluation is based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture high-resolution measurements of nat Ce and 142 Ce conducted at JRC-GEEL at the Geel Linear Accelerator facility, as well as recently measured thermal constants available from the EXFOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library and following a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance information was derived by the fit of these experimental datasets using the Reich-Moore approximation of the R-matrix theory as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The resolved resonance region upper energy limit for 140 Ce was kept at 200 keV while the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. This new evaluation was found to be in good agreement not only with several integral quantities of interest to the reactor physics community, but also with the stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross section.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Dark energy survey year 3 results: cosmology from galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing in harmonic space
We present the joint tomographic analysis of galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering in harmonic space (HS), using galaxy catalogues from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3). We utilize the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues as lens galaxies and the metacalibration catalogue as source galaxies. The measurements of angular power spectra are performed using the pseudo-$C_\ell$ method, and our theoretical modelling follows the fiducial analyses performed by DES Y3 in configuration space, accounting for galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, magnification bias, shear magnification bias and photometric redshift uncertainties. We explore different approaches for scale cuts based on non-linear galaxy bias and baryonic effects contamination. Our fiducial covariance matrix is computed analytically, accounting for mask geometry in the Gaussian term, and including non-Gaussian contributions and super-sample covariance terms. To validate our HS pipelines and covariance matrix, we used a suite of 1800 log-normal simulations. We also perform a series of stress tests to gauge the robustness of our HS analysis. In the $\Lambda$CDM model, the clustering amplitude $S_8 =\sigma _8(\Omega _m/0.3)^{0.5}$ is constrained to $S_8 = 0.704\pm 0.029$ and $S_8 = 0.753\pm 0.024$ (68 per cent C.L.) for the redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. For the wCDM, the dark energy equation of state is constrained to $w = -1.28 \pm 0.29$ and $w = -1.26^{+0.34}_{-0.27}$, for redMaGiC and MagLim catalogues, respectively. These results are compatible with the corresponding DES Y3 results in configuration space and pave the way for HS analyses using the DES Y6 data.
(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗
A data science approach for analysis and reconstruction of spinodal-like composition fields in irradiated FeCrAl alloys
A statistical method for the analysis of continuously distributed data representative of composition fluctuations in irradiated FeCrAl alloys acquired using Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) method is presented. Using probability distribution functions, direct and cross-covariances between the elemental compositions, the effects of alloy composition and irradiation dose were investigated on the spatial distribution and length scale of composition fluctuations at the nanoscale. We have observed that, for neutron-irradiated FeCrAl alloys, the distribution of Fe and Cr followed a left-skewed and right-skewed distribution, respectively for all (average) alloy compositions and irradiation doses. The analysis also revealed enhanced spatial gradients in the elemental compositions at higher irradiation dose. Direct and cross-covariance estimates of the experimental data were also utilized for reconstruction of composition data through fitting it to a parametric form of the covariance functions. Linear Model of Coregionalization was used to determine the parameters of the covariance functions. Subsequently, a spectral method was utilized for simulating a realization of the alloy compositions. Close correspondence was observed between the experimental and the reconstructed data which was analyzed using probability distribution functions and covariance functions. Composition space of the experimental and reconstructed data and dislocation velocities as a function of applied stress and line directions over the entire composition maps were also examined.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Towards a self-consistent analysis of the anisotropic galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions on large scales: application to mock galaxy catalogues
We establish a practical method for the joint analysis of anisotropic galaxy two- and three-point correlation functions (2PCF and 3PCF, respectively) on the basis of the decomposition formalism of the 3PCF using tripolar spherical harmonics. We perform such an analysis with MultiDark-Patchy mock catalogues to demonstrate and understand the benefit of the anisotropic 3PCF. We focus on scales above $80\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$, and use information from the shape and the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) signals of the 2PCF and 3PCF. We also apply density field reconstruction to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of BAO in the 2PCF measurement, but not in the 3PCF measurement. In particular, we study in detail the constraints on the angular diameter distance and the Hubble parameter. We build a model of the bispectrum or 3PCF that includes the non-linear damping of the BAO signal in redshift space. We carefully account for various uncertainties in our analysis including theoretical models of the 3PCF, window function corrections, biases in estimated parameters from the fiducial values, the number of mock realizations to estimate the covariance matrix, and bin size. The joint analysis of the 2PCF and 3PCF monopole and quadrupole components shows a $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and $20{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement in Hubble parameter constraints before and after reconstruction of the 2PCF measurements, respectively, compared to the 2PCF analysis alone. Furthermore, this study clearly shows that the anisotropic 3PCF increases cosmological information from galaxy surveys and encourages further development of the modelling of the 3PCF on smaller scales than we consider.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Advances in constraining intrinsic alignment models with hydrodynamic simulations
We use galaxies from the illustristng, massiveblack-ii, and illustris-1 hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the behaviour of large scale galaxy intrinsic alignments. Our analysis spans four redshift slices over the approximate range of contemporary lensing surveys z = 0–1. We construct comparable weighted samples from the three simulations, which we then analyse using an alignment model that includes both linear and quadratic alignment contributions. Our data vector includes galaxy–galaxy, galaxy–shape, and shape–shape projected correlations, with the joint covariance matrix estimated analytically. In all of the simulations, we report non-zero IAs at the level of several σ. For a fixed lower mass threshold, we find a relatively strong redshift dependence in all three simulations, with the linear IA amplitude increasing by a factor of ~2 between redshifts z = 0 and z = 1. We report no significant evidence for non-zero values of the tidal torquing amplitude, A 2 , in TNG, above statistical uncertainties, although MBII favours a moderately negative A 2 ~ –2. Examining the properties of the TATT model as a function of colour, luminosity and galaxy type (satellite or central), our findings are consistent with the most recent measurements on real data. We also outline a novel method for constraining the TATT model parameters directly from the pixelized tidal field, alongside a proof-of-concept exercise using TNG. This technique is shown to be promising, although comparison with previous results obtained via other methods is non-trivial.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Scaling Analysis of Two–Phase Flow in Fractal Permeability Fields
Fluid mixing in permeable media is essential in many practical applications. The mixing process is a consequence of velocity fluctuations owing to geological heterogeneities and mobility contrast of fluids. Heterogeneities in natural rocks are often spatially correlated, and their properties, such as permeability, may be described using fractal distributions. This work models the fractal characteristics of such permeability fields in which the covariance function is expressed as a power-law function. A generalized scaling relation is derived relating various fractal permeability fields using the magnitude of their fluctuations. Here, this relation reveals the self-similar behavior of two-phase flow in such permeable media. To that end, a recently developed, high-resolution numerical simulator is employed to validate the analytically derived scaling relations. Two flow problems are considered in which flow is governed by 1) a linear, and 2) a nonlinear transport equation. Due to the probabilistic representation of the fractal permeability fields, a sensitivity study is conducted for each flow scenario to determine the number of realizations required for statistical convergence. Scaling analysis is performed using ensemble averages of simulated saturation profiles and their mixing lengths. Results support the validity of the developed scaling relation across the range of investigated flow conditions at intermediate times. The dynamics of linear flow in the asymptotic regime is affected by the correlation structure of heterogeneity. In nonlinear flow, scaling behavior appears to be dominated by the degree of nonlinearity.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Development and application of two-step uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis methodology for fast reactor safety analysis
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear reactors for transients is directly linked with safety assessment through the cross-sections uncertainties, provided as a covariance matrix, which are propagated through the reactor system to output of interest pertaining to reactor safety, such as peak temperatures in fuel/clad/coolant. Using a two-step approach, uncertainties are first quantified and propagated from basic input variables (such as reaction cross-sections) to intermediate quantities (such as reactivity feedback coefficients) through lattice level calculations. Uncertainties of intermediate quantities (from the first step) are then propagated through the system transient calculations, in the second step, to obtain uncertainties on reactor safety output parameters of interest. The scope of this work consists of Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties that are highly correlated through unprotected transient overpower and unprotected loss of flow to assess their impact on core safety parameters. This two-step approach in the presence of covariance renders the sensitivity analysis very challenging. In fact, usually the sensitivity analysis is restricted to each step, which limits its application since the sensitivities between the system output quantities and the basic input variables are difficult to obtain. Here, in this work, we address this issue by proposing a simple, general methodology to combine the sensitivity indices obtained in each step by assuming the model behavior being linear. For the first step Generalized Perturbation theory based indices are used while in the second step the recently studied Johnson indices. The uncertainty quantification and sensitivity methodologies discussed here are demonstrated on a generic LFR design which is based on the 500 MWth demonstration Lead-cooled fast reactor (DLFR) using oxide fuel, developed by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC).
42 - ENGINEERING↗
Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation
Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗