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Results for “LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Annual review of earth observations from space

An overview is given of the present state of satellites making observations of the earth. Satellite systems discussed include the NOAA series of Synchronous Meteorological Satellites (SMS) and sun-synchronous satellites, the two LANDSATS (formerly called ERTS), and the NIMBUS series. Examples are presented of the types of observations being made as well as their purposes. These include observations of synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric processes for daily weather forecasting, global atmospheric processes for long-range weather forecasting, planetary radiation budget and ocean circulation for monitoring climatic trends, earth dynamics and tectonic structure for mineral exploration and assessing earthquake hazards, atmospheric composition and water quality for environment monitoring, and thematic mapping for monitoring land use, managing crops and water resources, and assessing environmental impacts.

Nordberg, W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.

French, V.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A note on the annual cycles of surface heat balance and temperature over a continent

A surface heating function, defined as the ratio of the time derivative of the mean annual temperature curve to the surface heat balance, is computed from the annual temperature range and heat balance data for the North American continent. An annual cycle of the surface heat balance is then reconstructed from the surface heating function and the annual temperature curve, and an annual cycle of evaporative plus turbulent heat loss is recomputed from the annual cycles of radiation balance and surface heat balance for the continent. The implications of these results for long range weather forecasting are discussed.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Microwave measurement of atmospheric pressure

Proposed concept for measuring surface air pressure over ocean utilizes three pairs of microwave signals transmitted from orbiting satellite. Measurements are used for long range weather forecasting.

Flower, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Planetary waves and Sun-weather effects

A brief outline about the theory of planetary waves is given and a review of space-time analysis, mainly at the 500 mbar pressure level, is presented. This analysis gives evidence that broad spectral bands of two types of waves exist within the troposphere: ultralong waves with zonal wave numbers M or approximately equal to 4 and periods tau or approximately equal to 5 days, propagating mainly to the west, and synoptic scale waves with M or approximately equal to 3 and tau or approximately equal to 10 days, propagating mainly to the east. These waves are generated by internal turbulent processes within the atmosphere and are quasi-persistent with lifetimes of several periods. It is shown that solar activity cannot generate planetary waves of significant amplitudes, and that the observed 'Sun-weather effects' can be interpreted within the framework of these internally generated planetary waves without any trigger mechanism from outside the atmosphere. It is suggested that a better knowledge of these persistent ultralong waves may help to improve long range weather forecasts.

Volland, H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations - A survey

Observations concerning the summer and winter monsoons of East Asia and their global associations are reviewed. The seasonal mean structure, transient variation, (intraseasonal to interannual), and synoptic-to-planetary scale fluctuations are discussed separately for the two monsoon components. Similarities and differences between the East Asian monsoon and that of India are also surveyed. Also presented is a description of the current status of monsoon-related observational and theoretical research. The importance of understanding the long-term anomalies of the monsoon is stressed, and an attempt is made to put the East Asian monsoon in a global perspective with a view towards its identification with the problems of long-range weather forecasting or short-term climate prediction in general. Finally, some future directions of research are suggested.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On the establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter

The establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter is investigated using stationary and time-dependent linear primitive equation models. Confirming the results of Nigam and Lindzen, we find that small displacements of the subtropical jet can cause significant changes in the stationary-wave response. The time scale for stationary establishment is found to be on the order of 5 days, both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere. The exception is for a northward shift of the subtropical jet, in which case the establishment of the new stationary solution in the stratosphere occurs on a longer time scale, which is mainly determined by dissipation. Implications for low-frequency atmospheric variability and mid- and long-range weather forecasting are discussed.

Da Silva, Arlindo M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

NOAA-L

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have jointly developed a valuable series of polar-orbiting Earth environmental observation satellites since 1978. These satellites provide global data to NOAA's short- and long-range weather forecasting systems. The system consists of two polar-orbiting satellites known as the Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellites (TIROS-N) (ATN). Operating as a pair, these satellites ensure that environmental data, for any region of the Earth, is no more than six hours old. These polar-orbiting satellites have not only provided cost-effective data for very immediate and real needs but also for extensive climate and research programs. The weather data (including images seen on television news programs) has afforded both convenience and safety to viewers throughout the world. The satellites also support the SARSAT (Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking) part of the COSPAS-SARSAT constellation. Russia provides the COSPAS (Russian for Space Systems for the Search of Vessels in Distress) satellites. The international COSPAS-SARSAT system provides for the detection and location of emergency beacons for ships, aircraft, and people in distress and has contributed to the saving of more than 10,000 lives since its inception in 1982.

McCain, Harry G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Interactive image processing for meteorological applications at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

The meteorological data processing program at the space center is centered on the analysis of geostationary satellite data. Its objectives are to detect and predict severe storms, to improve short range and long range global numerical weather forecasting models, and to develop improved satellite systems. The Image Display and Manipulation System (IDAMS) for earth resources satellite data processing is described, as is the special purpose software package, METPAK, for performing meteorology operations on IDAMS. The Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS), a dual terminal multiprocessor is also described.

Billingsley, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands Stability through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been inoperation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitoredthrough inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral or multi-spectral infraredsensors or through vicarious monitoring over cold targets such as Dome-C and deep convectiveclouds. The radiative transfer modeling (RTM)-based simulation models are developed to per-form the long-term monitoring of the stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. Long-term EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global atmospheric reanalysis data are used asinputs to the RTM simulation. By confining ocean in low to middle latitudes as the area ofinterest, the long-term stabilities of Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through observationminus background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements andsimulations from the RTM. In general, the RTM-based O-B analysis shows that the long-termstability of Aqua MODIS TEBs are maintained well. It is shown that Aqua MODIS surfacebands are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drifts <0.005 K∕yearfor B20, B22,and B23 and∼0.01 K∕yearfor B31 and B32. The carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption channelsof Aqua MODIS, e.g., B33 to B36, are stable with a BT bias drift <0.005 K∕year. It is also foundthat after accounting for the long-term growth of greenhouse gasN2O, the O-B bias trends forB24 and B25 are quite stable with yearly BT bias drifts around 0.0002 and0.0055 K∕year,respectively. The stabilities of the moisture-sensitive channels B27 to B29 and the ozone channelB30 of Aqua MODIS are also evaluated and the remnant small variations in the O-B bias trend-ing of these channels are further discussed. The RTM-based inter-comparison of MODIS TEBmeasurements with global atmospheric and climate re-analysis data provides validation of thelong-term radiometric stability of Aqua MODIS TEBs. The analysis in this paper also demon-strates that the comparison of well-calibrated MODIS TEB measurements with RTM simulationhelps quantify the long-term impacts of global greenhouse gas concentration growth on the BTdecreases in the MODIS greenhouse gas-sensitive channels.

MODIS↗
NASA NTRS1974

SEASAT economic assessment

The SEASAT program will provide scientific and economic benefits from global remote sensing of the ocean's dynamic and physical characteristics. The program as presently envisioned consists of: (1) SEASAT A; (2) SEASAT B; and (3) Operational SEASAT. This economic assessment was to identify, rationalize, quantify and validate the economic benefits evolving from SEASAT. These benefits will arise from improvements in the operating efficiency of systems that interface with the ocean. SEASAT data will be combined with data from other ocean and atmospheric sampling systems and then processed through analytical models of the interaction between oceans and atmosphere to yield accurate global measurements and global long range forecasts of ocean conditions and weather.

Hicks, K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Long Term Stability Monitoring of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral infrared sensors, such as AIRS on Aqua and IASI on MetOp satellite, or through long term vicarious monitoring over cold targets, such as Dome- C and deep convective clouds (DCC). In this paper, a radiative transfer modeling-based simulation model using Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of TEBs of Aqua MODIS. CRTM is a fast-radiative transfer model for calculations of radiances for satellite infrared radiometers and is able to output infrared radiance and brightness temperature at spectral bands of MODIS. Long term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis data, such as temperature and humidity profiles, are used as inputs to the CRTM simulation. By confining the area of interest to be over low to middle latitude ocean, the long-term stabilities of selected Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through Observation–Background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and BT retrieval from CRTM simulation. The consistency and relative stability between Aqua MODIS and ECMWF reanalysis data for surface channels of MODIS are evaluated. In addition, the radiative transfer modeling with CRTM enables us to evaluate the impacts of long term variation of global CO2 distribution on the O-B BT biases for CO2 channels of Aqua MODIS through comparison of simulations with constant or long term variable CO2 as inputs. The O-B analysis with RTM show that Aqua MODIS surface channels are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drift less than 0.004K/year for B20, B22, B23 and ~0.01K/year for B31 and B32. The CO2 absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g. B33-B36, are stable with BT bias drift < 0.005K/year.

MODIS↗