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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Urban Land Surface Temperature Downscaling in Chicago: Addressing Ethnic Inequality and Gentrification

In this study, we developed a XGBoost-based algorithm to downscale 2 km-resolution land surface temperature (LST) data from the GOES satellite to a finer 70 m resolution, using ancillary variables including NDVI, NDBI, and DEM. This method demonstrated a superior performance over the conventional TsHARP technique, achieving a reduced RMSE of 1.90 °C, compared to 2.51 °C with TsHARP. Our approach utilizes the geostationary GOES satellite data alongside high-resolution ECOSTRESS data, enabling hourly LST downscaling to 70 m—a significant advancement over previous methodologies that typically measure LST only once daily. Applying these high-resolution LST data, we examined the hottest days in Chicago and their correlation with ethnic inequality. Our analysis indicated that Hispanic/Latino communities endure the highest LSTs, with a maximum LST that is 1.5 °C higher in blocks predominantly inhabited by Hispanic/Latino residents compared to those predominantly occupied by White residents. This study highlights the intersection of urban development, ethnic inequality, and environmental inequities, emphasizing the need for targeted urban planning to mitigate these disparities. The enhanced spatial and temporal resolution of our LST data provides deeper insights into diurnal temperature variations, crucial for understanding and addressing the urban heat distribution and its impact on vulnerable communities.

Lee, Jangho (ORCID:0000000289421092)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooling outweighs warming across phenological transitions in the Northern Hemisphere

Vegetation phenology, i.e., seasonal biological events such as leaf-out and leaf-fall, regulates local climate through biophysical processes like evapotranspiration (ET) and albedo. However, the net surface temperature impact of these processes—whether ET cooling or albedo-induced warming predominates—and how the dominance changes across phenological transitions and regions remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of vegetation foliage on daytime land surface temperature (LST) following six phenological transitions, spanning from the start of season to end of season, in deciduous and mixed forests across the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere during 2013–2021 using multiple satellite products and ground observations. We quantified vegetation effect as the difference between observed LST and LST estimates from the Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC) model, representing a no-foliage scenario. We found that vegetation-induced cooling consistently outweighs warming following all phenological transitions except for the end of the season. Cooling intensity increased with vegetation greenness, ranging from 1.0 ± 0.5 °C (mean ± 0.15 SD) in 59% of forests after the start of the season (SOS) to 6.1 ± 0.8 °C in 89% of forests following the onset of maturity, before declining toward the end of the season. Over half of the regions experiencing cooling showed intensification of surface cooling with climate warming, suggesting an amplified vegetation-mediated cooling under future climate change. The findings provide a more precise understanding of the role of vegetation in modulating climate at the intraseasonal scale, highlighting the importance of integrating phenological impacts into climate adaptation strategies and Earth system modeling.

albedo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Environmental controls on isolated convection during the Amazonian wet season

The Amazon rainforest is a vital component of the global climate system, influencing the hydrological cycle and tropical circulation. However, understanding and modeling the evolution of convection in this region remain a scientific challenge. Here, we assess the environmental conditions associated with shallow, congestus, and isolated deep convection days during the wet season (December to April), employing measurements from the Green Ocean Amazon 2014–2015 (GoAmazon2014/5) experiment and large-scale wind fields from the constrained variational analysis. Composites of deep days show moister than average conditions below 3 km early in the morning. Analyzing the water budget at the surface through observations only, we estimated the water vapor convergence term as a residual of the water balance closure. Convergence remains nearly zero during the deep days until early afternoon (13:00 LST), when it becomes a dominant factor in the water budget. At 14:00 LST, the deep days experience a robust upward large-scale vertical velocity, especially above 4 km, which supports the shallow-to-deep convective transition occurring around 16:00–17:00 LST. In contrast, shallow and congestus days exhibit drier pre-convective conditions, along with diurnal water vapor divergence and large-scale subsidence that extend from the surface to the lower free troposphere. Moreover, afternoon precipitation exhibits the strongest linear correlation (0.6) with large-scale vertical velocity, nearly double the magnitude observed for other environmental factors, even moisture, at different levels and periods of the day. Precipitation also exhibits a moderate increase with low-level wind shear, while upper-level shear has a relatively minor negative impact on convection.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of Fine‐Resolution Urban Heat Island Simulations to Soil Moisture Parameterization

ABSTRACT Urban areas experience the impact of natural disasters, such as heatwaves and flash floods, disparately in different neighbourhoods across a city. The demand for precise urban hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological modelling to examine this disparity, and the interacting challenges posed by climate change and urbanisation, has thus surged. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has served such operational and research purposes for decades. Recent advancements in WRF, including enhanced numerical schemes and sophisticated urban atmospheric‐hydrological parameterizations, have empowered the simulation of urban geophysical processes at high resolution (~1 km), but even this resolution misses significant urban microclimate variability. This study applies the large‐eddy simulations (LES) mode within WRF, coupled with single‐layer urban canopy models (SLUCM), to enable even finer‐scale modelling (150 m) of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in the Baltimore metropolitan area. We run nine scenarios to evaluate various methods of initializing soil moisture and various spinup lead times, and to assess the impact of WRF's Mosaic approach in depicting subgrid‐scale processes. We evaluate the scenarios by comparing the WRF simulated land surface temperature (LST) against Landsat LST and the WRF simulated hourly 2‐m air temperatures (AT) with observations from eight weather stations across the domain. Results underscore the paramount influence of the lead spinup time on the spatiotemporal distribution of simulated soil moisture, consequently shaping WRF's efficacy in predicting the UHI. Furthermore, interpolating soil moisture‐related parameters from the parent for child domain initialization yields a notable reduction in mean and root‐mean‐squared errors. This improvement was particularly evident in simulations with the longest spinup time, affirming the importance of carefully designing the initialization of soil moisture for improved urban temperature predictions.

Talebpour, Mahdad↗
DOE OSTI2026

Citizen science coupled with machine learning to quantify green-blue infrastructure cooling potential in Maricopa County, Arizona

Here, this study investigates the spatiotemporal cooling performance of green and blue infrastructure (GBI) in the Dobson Ranch urban neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona. We leveraged citizen science near-surface (2 m) air temperature (Tair) measurements to train a highly accurate Tair predicting LightGBM machine learning model (R 2 : 0.986, MAE: 0.251 °C, RMSE: 0.585 °C). On June 16, 2024, the park area exhibited approximately 1 °C cooling effect (relative to the neighborhood mean) during both day and night. In contrast, the nearby artificial lake exhibited a stronger cooling effect of 2.4 °C during the day but a slight warming of 0.3 °C at night. At 00:00, locations 50 m downwind of the park were 0.3 °C warmer than the park, while locations 50 m upwind were 0.8 °C warmer. At 11:00, we observed that the downwind area is 0.8 °C cooler and the upwind area is 0.6 °C warmer—at the same 50 m distances relative to the park. We also observed 1 °C cooler and warmer effects respectively at the same 50 m downwind and upwind locations at 19:00 on June 17, 2024. Our data-driven analysis highlights potential limitations of car-traverse measurements, showing that failure to account for temporal variations during the traverse can lead to overestimation of Tair at night and underestimation during the day. Our analysis also showed only a weak correlation (coefficient: 0.48) between Landsat-derived land surface temperature (LST) and model predicted Tair at the time of the local Landsat overpass (∼11.00). This highlights the potential error of relying solely on LST for human thermal exposure analysis—particularly within the heterogenous built-environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Rocky Mountains and Tibetan Plateau 1998 Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies

This work follows up on the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiments, a community effort highlighting the spring land surface temperature anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as a useful source for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of summer precipitation in global hot spot regions, particularly in East Asia and North America. This paper extends the investigation to both the US Rocky Mountain (RM) region and the TP, considering the 1998 summer drought/flood event in North America/East Asia, respectively, as a case study. A previously developed initialization method for land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) is used in the NCEP Global Forecast System, coupled with a land model, SSiB2 (GFS/SSiB2), to produce observed RM cold May temperature anomaly. Forward simulation yields June precipitation anomalies at five remote locations. Likewise, the TP warm May temperature anomaly also produces June precipitation anomalies at these five locations. The effects of RM (cold) and TP (warm) temperature anomalies are consistent in the US South Coastal regions and the south Yangtze River Basin, yielding 49% (42%) of observed drought and 34% (44%) of observed flood, respectively. These LST/SUBT effects in RM and TP induce a global large-scale wave train linking North America with the TP, affecting the subtropical westerly jet and thereby modulating summer precipitation. Global SST effect is examined for comparison but does not yield statistically significant June precipitation anomalies in GFS/SSiB2. Furthermore, this study adds to evidence that high-mountain LST effects in the RM and TP are first-order sources of S2S precipitation predictability in summer months.

Nayak, Hara Prasad [University of California, Los ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Land-Surface Temperature Transitions at the Bankhead National Forest (LASTT-BNF) Field Campaign Report

Land surface types that are common in the Southeast United States (e.g., forests, agriculture, urban) can play key roles in the regulation of surface-atmosphere energy exchange and boundary-layer evolution in the region (Hinkle et al. 2024). Heterogeneity in these land-surface types and associated emissivities can drive strong transitions in land surface temperature (LST), which is an important component of the surface energy balance. Within the forested canopy surrounding the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s field deployment at the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in Alabama main site (M1) (Kuang et al. 2026), the different components of the vegetation and ground surface can create strong gradients in surface temperature that can influence the canopy thermal environment and vegetative function (e.g., stress, transpiration), both of which can have important, yet poorly characterized, controls on lower atmospheric processes (e.g., thermal turbulence, secondary circulations).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Evaluation of AI Models’ Performance for Three Geothermal Sites

Current artificial intelligence (AI) applications in geothermal exploration are tailored to specific geothermal sites, limiting their transferability and broader applicability. This study aims to develop a globally applicable and transferable geothermal AI model to empower the exploration of geothermal resources. This study presents a methodology for adopting geothermal AI that utilizes known indicators of geothermal areas, including mineral markers, land surface temperature (LST), and faults. The proposed methodology involves a comparative analysis of three distinct geothermal sites—Brady, Desert Peak, and Coso. The research plan includes self-testing to understand the unique characteristics of each site, followed by dependent and independent tests to assess cross-compatibility and model transferability. The results indicate that Desert Peak and Coso geothermal sites are cross-compatible due to their similar geothermal characteristics, allowing the AI model to be transferable between these sites. However, Brady is found to be incompatible with both Desert Peak and Coso. The geothermal AI model developed in this study demonstrates the potential for transferability and applicability to other geothermal sites with similar characteristics, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of geothermal resource exploration. This advancement in geothermal AI modeling can significantly contribute to the global expansion of geothermal energy, supporting sustainable energy goals.

Energy & Fuels↗