Interannual Gravity Variations
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Thirteen years of satellite laser ranging measurements to LAGEOS (1980-1992) have been analyzed to investigate the variations of the Earth's gravity field.
This investigation has had four main thrusts: 1) The analysis of seasonal variations of the Earth's gravitational field using Lageos 1 and 2 SLR data and comparisons to geophysical models. We have estimated the annual variation of the gravity field via a spherical harmonic expansion complete to degree and order 4. We have also constructed a similar model using models of the annual variation in the gravity field due to atmospheric, hydrologic, and ocean mass redistribution. These three models, when combined together, are in excellent agreement with the variations observed by satellite laser ranging. An article on these results was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. 2) The second thrust of our investigation has been to analyze the output of a Global Climate Model (GCM) to determine if the GRACE gravity mission can be expected to detect climate change signals. Working with Gary Russell at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), we have determined that there are several large secular signals that GRACE might be able to detect, including secular changes in snow cover, sea ice, polar ice, ocean mass, and other variables. It is possible that some of these signals could be detected with 5 years of GRACE measurements - its hard to judge this because the interannual variability in the GCM, which could mask the climate signals, is unreliable. Certainly a follow-on GRACE mission could detect these signals when compared to the data from the initial GRACE mission.). An article on these results will be published in the journal Journal of Geophysical Research. 3) In the last year of the investigation, we developed a new technique for analyzing temporal gravity variations using "geophysical fingerprints", which was successfully demonstrated on 20 years of satellite laser ranging data [Nerem et al., 20031. 4]. We also participated in a workshop on future satellite gravity measurements, which resulted in paper on measuring ocean mass variations using GRACE [Nerem et al., 20031 and on using laser interferometry for future gravity missions [Bender et al., 20031].
Satellite laser ranging has matured over the last decade into one of the essential space geodesy techniques. It has demonstrated centimeter site positioning and millimeter per year velocity determinations in a frame tied dynamically to the mass center of the solid Earth hydrosphere atmosphere system. Such a coordinate system is a requirement for studying long term eustatic sea level rise and other global change phenomena. Earth orientation parameters determined with the coordinate system have been produced in near real time operationally since 1983, at a relatively modest cost. The SLR ranging to Lageos has also provided a rich spectrum of results based upon the analysis of Lageos orbital dynamics. These include significant improvements in the knowledge of the mean and variable components of the Earth's gravity field and the Earth's gravitational parameter. The ability to measure the time variations of the Earth's gravity field has opened as exciting area of study in relating global processes, including meteorologically derived mass transport through changes in the satellite dynamics. New confirmation of general relativity was obtained using the Lageos SLR data.
Modeling of the Time Variable Gravity (TVG) is believed to constitute one of the the largest remaining source of orbit error for altimeter satellite POD. The GSFC operational TVG model consists of forward modeling the atmospheric gravity using ECMWF 6-hour pressure data, a GRACE derived 20x20 annual field to account for changes in the hydrology and ocean water mass, and linear rates for C20, C30, C40, based on 17 years of SLR data analysis (IERS 2003) using the EIGEN-GL04S1 (a GRACE+Lageos-based geopotential solution). Although the GSFC Operational model can be applied from 1987, there may be long-term variations not captured by these linear models, and more importantly the linear models may not be consistent with more recent surface mass trends due to global climate change, We have evaluated the impact of TVG in two different wavs: (1) by using the more recent EIGEN-6S gravity model developed by the GFZ/GRGS tearm, which consists of annual, semi-annual and secular changes in the coefficients to 50x50 determined over 8(?) years of GRACE+Lageos+GOCE data (2003-200?): (2) Application of 4x4 solutions developed from a multi satellite SLR+DORIS solution based on GGM03S that span the period from 1993 to 2011. We have evaluated the recently released EIGEN6s static and time-varying gravity field for Jason-2 (J2). Jason-I (J1), and TOPEX/Posiedon (TP) Precise Orbit Determination (POD) spanning 1993-2011. Although EIGEN6s shows significant improvement for J2POD spanning 2008 - 2011, it also shows significant degradation for TP POD from 1992. The GSFC 4x4 time SLR+DORIS-based series spans 1993 to mid 2011, and shows promise for POD. We evaluate the performance of the different TVG models based on analysis of tracking data residuals use of independent data such as altimeter crossovers, and through analysis of differences with internally-generated and externally generated orbits.
Just as the Earth's surface deforms tectonically, so too does the gravity field evolve with time. Now that precise geodesy is yielding observations of these deformations it is important that concomitant, temporal changes in the gravity field be monitored. Although these temporal changes are minute they are observable: changes in the J2 component of the gravity field were inferred from satellite (LAGEOS) tracking data; changes in other components of the gravity field would likely be detected by Geopotential Research Mission (GRM), a proposed but unapproved NASA gravity field mission. Satellite gradiometers were also proposed for high-precision gravity field mapping. Using simple models of geodynamic processes such as viscous postglacial rebound of the solid Earth, great subduction zone earthquakes and seasonal glacial mass fluctuations, we predict temporal changes in gravity gradients at spacecraft altitudes. It was found that these proposed gravity gradient satellite missions should have sensitivities equal to or better than 10(exp -4) E in order to reliably detect these changes. It was also found that satellite altimetry yields little promise of useful detection of time variations in gravity.
Zonal geopotential coefficients have been computed from average seasonal variations in global air and water mass distribution. These coefficients are used to predict the seasonal variations of LAGEOS' and Starlette's orbital node, the node residual, and the seasonal variation in the 3rd degree zonal coefficient for Starlette. A comparison of these predictions with the observed values indicates that air pressure and, to a lesser extent, water storage may be responsible for a large portion of the currently unmodeled variation in the earth's gravity field.
Great strides have been made during the past 30 years in refining models of the last global glaciation. The refinements draw upon a vastly expanded relative sea level and sedimentary core record. Furthermore, we now possess a sharpened understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate changes associated with deglaciation. Some 15 years ago, using only 5.5 years of ranging data, analyses of the drift in LAGEOS I node acceleration was used to infer that postglacial rebound was responsible for a secular change in the Earth's ellipsoidal shape (Yoder et al., .1983]. Today there exists a wealth of geodynamics satellite orbit data that constrain the secular time-dependence of the Earth's shape and low order gravity field, which includes mass redistribution from present-day glacier and great ice sheet imbalance and from postglacial rebound. We have shown that an unambiguous determination of the secular variation in the Earth's pear shaped harmonic (l = 3, m = 0) might provide information that bears on the present-day mass balance of Antarctica. This issue is revisited in light of new constraints on glacial loading during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene. An especially critical issue for the interpretation of secular odd degree zonal harmonics, l = 3 to 7, is the timing and magnitude of the deglaciation of Antarctica from Last Glacial Maximum. We explore ways in which the recovery of secular variation in both zonal and non-zonal harmonics for l = 2 through 7 can improve constraints on both rebound and present-day ice sheet balance.
Redistribution of mass within the Earth system changes its gravitational field, and thus changes the orbits of Earth satellites. While these variations are small, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) to precise geodetic satellites such as Lageos-1, Lageos-2, Starlette, Ajisai, and Stella can detect these changes at their broadest spatial scales (currently greater than 10,000 km). The satellites sense only the combined variation in the solid Earth-ocean-atmosphere system; however, modeling of these different components has led to detection of long-wavelength variations in the distribution of atmospheric mass, changes in the amplitudes of atmospheric and oceanic tides, and secular variations caused by the post-glacial adjustment of the Earth's crust. The unambiguous detection of ocean mass redistribution by SLR has not been verified due largely to inadequacies in current ocean models. Great progress has been made in recent years in the determination of luni-solar tides and the braking they induce in the Earth-Moon-Sun system (leading to secular changes in the length-to-day and lengthening of the lunar orbit period) using a wide variety of techniques including ocean tide gauges, satellite altimetry, Lunar Laser Ranging, and near-Earth satellite orbit modeling. Recent investigations of the more complex and less predictable non-tidal temporal variations in the gravity field have generally proceeded along two fronts: 1) the determination of long-wavelength variations in the gravity field through the changing perturbations seen in the orbits of near-Earth satellites, and 2) the prediction of temporal variations in gravity using geophysical, atmospheric, and oceanic models. A convergence of these efforts is sought to better understand the source of observed changes in the Earth's gravitational field.