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Sustainable Transactions - The Fine Art of the Forever Deal - 19569

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) has various real property interests at the 92 sites within its current portfolio. Because of its unique mission, LM does not own most of the sites for which it has responsibility for long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). In addition to the sites it does own, LM works with various federal, state, local, and private entities to execute its obligations. Each site has its own narrative with respect to the real property assets: how they were acquired, how they are sustained, and how they were or will be dispositioned. Since the regulatory time frame for LTS and M activities at some sites can be in perpetuity, durable and effective instruments and documentation are necessary to support LM's mission as a federal land manager and steward. In addition, more than half of the sites currently in LM's inventory do not allow unrestricted use because of residual contamination from historical activities, and institutional controls are required to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination by controlling land use, restricting access to potential hazards, and making the public aware of potential dangers from the residual contamination. Thus, the overall real property interests and transactions associated with these sites not only have to address the environmental concerns associated with protection of human health and the environment but also how best to position LM's real property assets to support the mission for future generations. These types of transactions are often complex, requiring the negotiation of numerous documents to achieve and sustain protection of human health and the environment while allowing for future use. Such planning needs to be flexible enough to envision that the original transaction will likely change over time due to changing regulations, communities, stakeholders, and site conditions as operation and maintenance activities are performed. Planning for the integration of these requirements with the needs of the end users, stakeholders, and communities is paramount to a successful project, and various transactional considerations impact how best to achieve this goal. As such, these transactions have to be sustainable. Real property interests change over time, with new owners, operators, regulators, and stakeholders. Determining the sustainability of these real property interests, therefore, calculates the sustainability of each asset's physical attributes and also the sustainability of the various legal instruments and arrangements that are put in place at each site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Preparing the FUSRAP Colonie Interim Storage Site for Transfer Back to the US Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management - 19215

The Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Colonie Interim Storage Site was transferred from the US Department of Energy (US DOE) to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in 1997. The USACE initiated remediation efforts at the Site under FUSRAP. The Site was separated into three distinct operable units (OU) to more efficiently manage the remedial process: 1) Groundwater OU, 2) Main Site Soils OU, and 3) Vicinity Property OU. The USACE has completed remedial actions at each of these three OUs and has advanced the OU remedies at the Site to the long-term stewardship stage to be executed by the US DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM). The US DOE LM is the current real property owner of record of the Colonie Main Site. A summary of each OU and the activities needed to prepare for site transfer follows: OU 1 - USACE issued the Colonie Groundwater OU Record of Decision (ROD) (USACE 2010a) on April 9, 2010. The Groundwater ROD remedy is monitored natural attenuation (MNA) and long-term monitoring (LTM) of groundwater after source removal completion. Results of groundwater monitoring indicate reductions in concentrations of contaminants of concern (COC). Based on the marked progress to date, USACE has optimized the groundwater LTM program (USACE, 2014) by reducing the well network, sampling frequency, and analytical parameters, and by abandoning wells that are no longer needed. A Groundwater ROD Five-Year Review report was submitted to the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) for review in 2018. NYSDEC agreed that MNA is still an appropriate remedial method although it is progressing at a slower rate than predicted. OU 2 - From 1999 to 2007, USACE completed the large-scale removal of soil at the Main Site, which included the adjacent Town of Colonie Vicinity Property. Radioactively contaminated soil along with accessible metals-contaminated soil and soil containing volatile organic compounds (VOC) were removed during this effort. A total of 103,402 cubic meters (m{sup 3}) of soil was excavated and disposed offsite. On March 26, 2015, USACE signed the Main Site Soils OU ROD (USACE, 2015a). The ROD remedy included provisions for Land Use Controls (LUC) consisting of institutional controls (IC) through an Environmental Easement for management of three small and discrete inaccessible locations within three of the 27 Final Status Survey units of the Main Site. The Environmental Easement provides a means of protection based on both current and future land use by placing restrictions on soil excavation and reuse. The easement and a supporting Site Management Plan (SMP) will be finalized by LM in coordination with NYSDEC. OU 3 - the Vicinity Property OU ROD was signed on 20 September 2017. This ROD declared No Action (NA) for dust and No Further Action (NFA) for soil and other media for the Vicinity Properties. Prior to the ROD, USACE performed dust sampling and other characterization activities at representative commercial and residential Vicinity Property locations. These efforts were reported in the Colonie FUSRAP Site Vicinity Property Operable Unit Remedial Investigation Summary Report (USACE, 2016). A Site Closeout Report (SCOR) was issued to NYSDEC and approved in 2018. The approval of this report starts the transfer process back to the LM. Ongoing and future transfer activities include records retention and management, preparation and filing of real estate records, physical site management (fencing, landscape maintenance, well abandonment) and coordination with state regulators and LM staff. This presentation is intended to make all stakeholders aware of the necessary steps for site transfer from the USACE back to the LM. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Oil and Natural Gas Development near and beneath Uranium Tailings Cells and Other Remediated Sites - 20358

DOE LM is responsible for maintaining remedies at more than 50 remediated sites that require active long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Institutional controls (ICs) were established to limit human and environmental exposures to residual contamination by controlling land use, restricting access to potential hazards, and making the public aware of potential dangers from the residual contamination. ICs for each site were developed based on current and foreseeable conditions; however, these controls should evolve to mitigate potential human health and other environmental risks from unanticipated changes in activities or site conditions. Activities conducted beyond the DOE long-term care boundaries by non-DOE parties may impact the effectiveness of ICs or even the long-term stability of disposal cells and groundwater remedies. Several sites that LM manages or that will transfer to LM for LTS and M are in active oil and gas production basins. The sites are associated with uranium ore milling or nuclear test sites and have been remediated or are in the process of remediation and have no ongoing DOE mission. Particularly since 2005, hydraulic fracturing ('fracking') combined with directional drilling has dramatically increased oil and natural gas (oil/gas) production in the United States, now making it the number one hydrocarbon-producing country. Fracking has allowed production from shale and other rocks of low natural permeability that were historically not considered viable oil/gas resources. Also, because wellbores can now be drilled as many as 5 kilometers or more horizontally, hydrocarbons can be recovered from zones without having access to the surface above them. Drilling activity near Rulison, Colorado, the location of an underground nuclear detonation managed by LM, has raised public concerns that remnant radioactivity in the detonation zone could migrate to producing wells and enter the natural gas distribution system. At sites like the Falls City, Texas, Disposal site, transitioned to LM with a split estate, increased production in the region has resulted in wellbores beneath the long-term care boundary of the site. While the DOE license for Falls City was approved by the NRC in 1997 without the acquisition of the subsurface rights, NRC has raised concerns on whether this activity impacts the integrity of the cell and/or groundwater remedies. In Wyoming, LM is anticipating receiving the license for the Bear Creek site and manages the Spook site, both locations of uranium mill tailings disposal cells. These Wyoming sites are in an active region of major oil and gas development. This change in surrounding land use will require LM to work collaboratively with NRC to address these concerns. At several DOE sites radioactive waste, and often intermixed nonradioactive constituents, is permanently isolated in engineered disposal cells. At other sites, residual contamination can be present in groundwater, blast cavities, and infinite amounts within soil. Areas targeted for oil and gas development at the Texas and Wyoming sites range from depths of 2440 to 3350 meters (8000-11000 feet) below ground surface. When most site remedies were designed, oil and gas development was not considered to be an issue within the site boundary. With the more recent uses of directional drilling, fracking, and associated wastewater injections, the evaluative criteria for incoming sites and ICs for managing long-term protectiveness and regulatory compliance are changing. Although DOE surface ownership was previously thought to be a robust IC to prevent surface and subsurface development, particularly at disposal sites, that may no longer be the case. Whereas the subsurface development at Texas and Wyoming sites is currently occurring at thousands of meters beneath the surface, shallower and direct onsite development would be more of a concern for LM. The energy introduced when a well is hydraulically fractured causes microseismic events (magnitude -2 to 1.0) as the fractures propagate but does not directly cause seismic events (earthquakes) of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures. Additionally, the extent of the hydraulic fractures is limited to the targeted depths, which are far below the surface. However, earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to damage surface structures have been attributed to the injection of wastewater into disposal wells. States that have experienced these effects have enacted regulations that limit the rate and pressures that wastewater can be injected into disposal wells. Items LM may consider are the need for monitoring the volume of water injected into nearby disposal wells and possibly installing seismic stations at sites most susceptible to damage. While the need to demonstrate that no impact from oil and gas extraction activities on a site groundwater remedy or disposal cells will vary from site to site, LM is assessing risk criteria for this activity. Though LM has not experienced an issue yet at a uranium tailings disposal site, it cannot assume that there will be none, and must address NRC concerns. LM is building on past experiences at other sites and beginning to form new processes with the hope that these concepts can be applied for other future sites. (authors)

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Results of the OECD-NEA Initiative 'Preservation of RK and M Across Generations' - 18084

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has co-ordinated an international initiative to develop understanding and guidelines related to the long-term preservation of records, knowledge and memory (RK and M) for radioactive waste repositories. The initiative will come to a close in April 2018. Currently, a number of deliverables are in the process of publication and a preview and overview is presented in this paper. Central is the 'Final Report of the RK and M Initiative', which sets out the RK and M fundamentals, including basic principles of RK and M preservation, the concept of oversight and the relevant time frames, the mediated and non-mediated transmission of messages, and ultimately the need for a systemic strategy. Furthermore, it presents a menu of approaches and mechanisms of RK and M preservation, such as markers, time capsules, archives, the Key Information File (KIF), education, art, land use control, and monitoring. Finally, the main report provides suggestions on how to develop a systemic strategy. A bibliography and a regulatory catalogue on RK and M preservation, and concept reports describing the KIF and the Set of Essential Records (SER), will complement the set of deliverables of the RK and M Initiative. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Technical/ administrative options for managing tritium MCL exceedances in P-area groundwater and Steel Creek

This white paper was requested by the Core Team (United States Department of Energy [USDOE], United States Environmental Protection Agency [USEPA], and South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control [SCDHEC]) at the P-Area Groundwater (PAGW) Operable Unit (OU) Scoping Meeting held in January 2017 to discuss recent data and potential alternatives in support of a focused Corrective Measures Study/Feasibility Study (CMS/FS). This white paper presents an overview of the problem, and a range of technical and administrative options for addressing the tritium contamination in groundwater and Steel Creek. As tritium cannot be treated practicably, alternatives are limited to media transfer, containment and natural attenuation principally relying on radioactive decay. Using other groundwater OU decisions involving tritium as precedent, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS) recommends that final tritium alternatives be evaluated in a CMS/FS, understanding that the likely preferred remedy will include natural attenuation with land use controls (LUCs). This is based on the inability to significantly reduce tritium impact to Steel Creek using an engineered solution as compared to natural attenuation. The timing of this evaluation could be conducted concurrently with the final remedy evaluation for volatile organic compounds (VOCs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Colonie, New York, FUSRAP Site: Pathway from Remediation to Redevelopment - 19465

The Colonie, New York, Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) Site consists of a 4.5-hectare (11.2-acre) US Department of Energy (DOE)-owned vacant property (Main Site) and 56 commercial and residential vicinity properties (VPs). The site was owned and operated by National Lead Industries (NL) from 1937 to 1984. The Main Site was used for manufacturing fuel and weapons components using uranium and thorium. Depleted uranium dust was emitted from exhaust stacks that contaminated the site and the VPs. NL also filled in portions of the site with industrial waste and released contaminants to groundwater. The state court shut the plant down in 1984. The site was acquired by DOE in 1985, which remediated the VPs and began to remediate the Main Site up to 1997. The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) undertook remedial actions beginning in 1997. The site has three Operable Units (Main Site, Groundwater, and VPs). The Main Site soil was remediated to residential standards except for three small easement areas. The soils in the easement areas are safe for exposure to workers. There is a groundwater plume beneath the site that will require the use of monitoring and temporary land use controls until cleanup standards are met. The VPs require no further action. A 2-year transition period from USACE to the DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) began on June 18, 2018, with the receipt of the Site Closeout Report from USACE. LM has determined that the 4.5-hectare site is excess to its mission needs and intends to pursue sale of the property for redevelopment. There are several processes required before the disposal can occur. Organizations with similar sites that are federally owned and ready for private redevelopment may benefit from reviewing the Colonie site disposition processes. This paper will discuss (1) Determining disposal alternatives for the Colonie, New York, site. (2) Describing the federal requirements for the disposal of excess real property. (3) Communicating to stakeholders that the site is ready for disposal. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Changes in Cleanup Strategies and Long-Term Monitoring Costs for DOE FUSRAP Sites - 17241

The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) is responsible for the post-closure management of remediated DOE sites. LM's objective for Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) includes the long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTSM) of sites that have been remediated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). FUSRAP was initiated in 1974 by the US Atomic Energy Commission, a predecessor agency of DOE. FUSRAP was managed by DOE from 1981 to 1997. Through a congressional act, the scope to remediate FUSRAP sites was transferred to USACE in 1997. By 1997, DOE had completed the cleanup of 25 of the 46 sites that were active within the program, and had begun cleanups at 13 additional sites. USACE assumed responsibility for the cleanup of the 21 remaining FUSRAP sites, and 8 additional sites that have been recommended for cleanup. Presently, LM provides long-term stewardship for 30 completed FUSRAP sites while USACE is actively remediating 23 sites. FUSRAP sites are typically privately-owned factories or research facilities. However, there are four DOE owned FUSRAP sites. These sites are Maywood and Middlesex in New Jersey, and Colonie and Niagara Falls in New York. In support of LM's Beneficial Reuse strategic mission, the site in Wayne, New Jersey has been transferred to a municipality and the site in New Brunswick, New Jersey has been sold. Historically, most sites in FUSRAP were remediated to 'unlimited exposure and unrestricted use' cleanup levels consistent with residential use. Some sites were remediated using supplemental limits due to inaccessible areas while remaining sites have been remediated to other-than residential standards based on site-specific long-term land use assumptions. Of the 31 completed FUSRAP sites under LM stewardship, one site requires land-use controls and no site requires groundwater monitoring. Over the next 10 years USACE plans to transfer 11 sites to LM. Several of these sites will have additional long-term monitoring requirements as per their Records of Decisions (RODs). These transitioning sites include the Colonie, New York site, the Maywood and Deepwater, New Jersey, sites and the St. Louis, Missouri site. The additional stewardship requirements will include groundwater monitoring, enforcement of institutional and engineered controls, and five-year reviews. In addition to these sites, more than 100 vicinity properties will also be transferred to LM for stewardship. Given the increase in long-term stewardship activities for these sites and their associated vicinity properties, initiatives are under way to incorporate the additional LTSM requirements into the program's out-year planning. LM will be evaluating several methods to customize LTSM cost and liability estimates for all of the completed FUSRAP sites, planning to address the sites not yet transferred and those that are in LM's custody. Where necessary, LM will use remedial process optimization techniques and evaluate monitored natural attenuation protocols to reduced long-term monitoring costs. Methods for identifying costs include the cost estimates provided in RODs, cost estimates refined during remediation, operation and maintenance costs provided by USACE prior to transition, and presumptive remedies using USACE and Environmental Management / LM historic costs at similar sites. On the basis of this evaluation, a strategy for estimating site-specific LTSM costs will be selected. (authors)

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Machine learning enables national assessment of wind plant controls with implications for land use

Summary As deployment of wind energy continues to expand, computationally efficient tools for predicting wind plant performance over a wide range of layout designs, technology innovations, and spatial locations are increasingly important for policy and investment decisions. We demonstrate two approaches to training a surrogate model to predict annual energy production (AEP) of parameterized wind plant layouts: one using a Gaussian process (GP) and the other using a fully convolutional neural network (FCNN). We leverage the powerful FCNN architecture by encoding wind plant design parameters and output response surface as an image. The FCNN produces more accurate results than the GP with mean absolute errors equivalent to 1% and 1.9% of plant rated power, respectively, although the GP performs well under limited training data and provides useful uncertainty information. We also evaluate a surrogate model for wake steering, enabling a nationwide assessment of the impact of plant control strategies and plant layout decisions. Across two million locations, we find that wake steering strategies boost AEP with relative gains upwards of 3%. Gains are most pronounced at sites without a dominant wind direction and where layout optimization is less fruitful. Additionally, we perform a nationwide sensitivity analysis showing that wake steering can mitigate wake losses from higher density plant layouts. Our results suggest that regions which have not been previously viable for wind deployment due to moderate wind resources are especially well enhanced by wake steering strategies that could help overcome land constraints and inflexible layout options, potentially identifying new deployment opportunities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Improving the Lift Properties of a Wing in Takeoff and Landing by Means of a Boundary Layer Control System Using Ejector-Type Actuators

A device making it possible to control of the flow past a wing at low flight speeds is proposed. The device comprises an ejector-type actuator that simultaneous sucks the boundary layer on the upper surface and blows a gas jet in the vicinity of the trailing edge. Based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, a mathematical model of an ejector-type actuator is developed and experimental studies are carried out.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Design and impact assessment of watershed investments: An approach based on ecosystem services and boundary work

Watershed investments, whose main aim is to secure water for cities, represent a promising opportunity for large-scale sustainability transitions in the near future. If properly designed, they promote activities in the watershed that enhance ecosystem services while protecting nature and biodiversity, as well as achieving other societal goals. In this paper, we build on the concepts of ecosystem services and boundary work, to develop and test an operative approach for designing and assessing the impact of watershed investments. The approach is structured to facilitate negotiations among stakeholders. Its strategic component includes setting the agenda; defining investment scenarios; and assessing the performance of watershed investments as well as planning for a follow-up. Its technical component concerns data processing; tailoring spatially explicit ecosystem service models; hence their application to design a set of “investment portfolios”, generate future land use scenarios, and model impacts on selected ecosystem services. A case study illustrates how the technical component can be developed in a data scarce context in sub-Saharan Africa in a way that is functional to support the steps of the strategic component. The case study addresses soil erosion and water scarcity-related challenges affecting Asmara, a medium-sized city in Eritrea, and considers urban water security and rural poverty alleviation as two illustrative objectives, within a ten-year planning horizon. The case study results consist in spatially explicit data (investment portfolio, land use scenario, impact on ecosystem services), which were aggregated to quantitatively assess the performance of different watershed investments scenarios, in terms of changes in soil erosion control. By addressing stakeholders' concerns of credibility, saliency, and legitimacy, the approach is expected to facilitate negotiation of objectives, definition of scenarios, and assessment of alternative watershed investments, ultimately, to contribute to implementing an adaptive watershed management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preserving the Mound Laboratory Legacy-The Mound Cold War Discovery Center - 19550

The Mound Cold War Discovery Center (MCWDC) opened at the former DOE Mound Laboratory in Miamisburg, Ohio, on April 23, 2018, approximately three years after the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management, Dayton History, the Mound Science and EnergyMuseum Association (MSEMA), and the Mound Development Corporation signed the Mound Educational Center Memorandum of Agreement (MOA). This MOA designated each party's responsibilities for the facility and laid the groundwork for DOE to enter into a Cooperative Agreement with Dayton History to design, build, and perform initial operations of the educational center. Dayton History is a nonprofit organization that operates several historical facilities in Montgomery County, Ohio. The Mound Development Corporation is the nonprofit organization that operates the Mound Business Park, privately owned property previously associated with the former DOE Mound Laboratory. The US Atomic Energy Commission began operations at the Mound Laboratory in 1948 as an integrated research, development, and production facility that supported the nation's weapons and energy programs. In October 2015, DOE entered into a five-year Cooperative Agreement with Dayton History to preserve, protect, and make accessible legacy records and information about the history of the Mound site through the development of an educational center. Years One and Two were for design and construction, respectively. Years Three through Five were for operation of the new center. The new center, located in a building owned by the Mound Development Corporation, would carry on the mission started by the MSEMA, a nonprofit organization started by former Mound site employees more than 15 years ago after DOE mission work ended at the site. As part of the cooperative agreement, Dayton History is responsible for creating interactive displays and exhibits to draw, entertain, and educate the public on the Mound site's significant contributions to the protection of the nation; developing educational programs; and initiating marketing strategies for the long-term sustainability of the educational center. In 2016, parties to the MOA officially named the facility the Mound Cold War Discovery Center. The MCWDC was designed to preserve the history of the Mound site through effective, entertaining, and efficient communication of the history of the Mound Laboratory; the site's legacy to the US weapons production complex and space exploration program; and promote understanding of what has happened at the site since DOE mission work ended, including environmental cleanup under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and the regulator-approved end state of industrial/commercial land use with associated institutional controls. The cooperative agreement requires Dayton History to develop and implement marketing strategies to support the long-term sustainability of the MCWDC at the Mound site. Dayton History will submit a report after the first year of operation and every year thereafter during the period of the cooperative agreement. These reports will describe and status efforts to obtain sustainability and offer for consideration any operational changes, corrections, or suggestions that may improve the potential for sustainability. Prior to the end of the cooperative agreement, a sustainability assessment decision will be made by DOE to determine whether the MCWDC has enough community interest to financially sustain itself at the Mound site. The status of the MCWDC Legacy Fund established by Dayton History will be considered in DoE's assessment determination. If DOE determines that the MCWDC is not sustainable at the Mound site, the exhibits will be relocated to Carillon Historical Park in Dayton, with the five key exhibits that were predetermined in the MOA to be placed on permanent display, thereby maintaining the legacy of the Mound site. Dayton History is required to submit a final closeout report at the end of Year Five of the cooperative agreement. The report will describe all activities completed under the agreement, provide an assessment of how project goals were achieved or not achieved, and describe how the legacy of the site will be preserved. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Planning Framework for Mesolevel Optimization of Urban Runoff Control Schemes

A planning framework is developed to optimize runoff control schemes at scales relevant for regional planning at an early stage. The framework employs less sophisticated modeling approaches to allow a practical application in developing regions with limited data sources and computing capability. The methodology contains three interrelated modules: (1)the geographic information system (GIS)-based hydrological module, which aims at assessing local hydrological constraints and potential for runoff control according to regional land-use descriptions; (2)the grading module, which is built upon the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. It is used to establish a priority ranking system to assist the allocation of runoff control targets at the subdivision level; and (3)the genetic algorithm-based optimization module, which is included to derive Pareto-based optimal solutions for mesolevel allocation with multiple competing objectives. The optimization approach describes the trade-off between different allocation plans and simultaneously ensures that all allocation schemes satisfy the minimum requirement on runoff control. Our results highlight the importance of considering the mesolevel allocation strategy in addition to measures at macrolevels and microlevels in urban runoff management. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Zhou, Qianqian↗

EPRI Demonstration of an Autonomous Site Characterization Vehicle - 20523

A substantial effort is applied in performing radiological characterization of structures and land areas during decommissioning of a nuclear facility. This includes multiple surveys of land areas and large structures to support eventual site release under the Multi Agency Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM, Reference 1). These surveys are typically performed using manually delivered systems, which is time consuming and labor intensive. Radiological surveys intentionally follow a prescribed protocol with respect to areas covered, scan speeds, responses to elevated readings, required detector offsets, the need for repeat measurements, etc. Based on these attributes, combined with the repetitive effort of performing surveys over large areas, automation of radiological characterization techniques has a high potential to be successful and promises substantial benefit. EPRI has performed a project that resulted in the development and demonstration of an autonomous site characterization system. This EPRI project focused on building surfaces and the surfaces of large land areas as these configurations lend themselves more readily to automated survey. The project included: - Identification of the requirements for an autonomous site characterization system; - A survey of existing control systems that use automation to conduct characterization of structures and land areas. - As no fully adequate systems were identified, a complete system was developed that utilized commercially available detection and analysis systems and a self driving vehicle owned by EPRI. The system was demonstrated at the Kewaunee nuclear power plant site in the fall of 2019. The demonstration included: - Autonomous surveys of floor areas inside the Auxiliary Building at Kewaunee after manually controlled mapping of the survey areas. - For land areas, the vehicle autonomously surveyed areas using travel paths had been preprogrammed onto an internet available map of area. In this case, GPS coordinates from the preprogramming were used for navigation by the vehicles guidance system. This paper summarizes the characterization system development and system demonstration which will also be published in an EPRI report in the first half of 2020. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Soil atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, 1998 - ongoing

The Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) established a network of long-term permanent biogeochemical study plots in 1998. These plots provide long-term data on vegetation, soil and hydrologic processes in the key ecosystem types within the urban ecosystem. The network of study plots includes forest plots (upland and riparian), chosen to represent the range of forest conditions in the area and grass plots (to represent home lawns). Plots are instrumented with lysimeters (drainage and tension) to sample soil solution chemistry, time domain reflectometry probes to measure soil moisture, dataloggers to measure and record soil temperature, and trace gas flux chambers to measure the flux of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane from soil to the atmosphere. Measurements of in situ nitrogen mineralization, nitrification and denitrification were made at approximately monthly intervals from Fall 1998 - Fall 2000. Detailed vegetation characterization (all layers) was done in summer 1998 and 2015. Data from these plots has been published in Groffman et al. (2006, 2009), Groffman and Pouyat (2009), Savva et al. (2010), Costa and Groffman (2013), Duncan et al. (2013), Waters et al. (2014), Ni and Groffman (2018), Templeton et al. (2019). Literature Cited Costa, K.H. and P.M. Groffman. 2013. Factors regulating net methane flux in urban forests and grasslands. Soil Science Society of America Journal 77:850 - 855. Duncan, J. M., L. E. Band, and P. M. Groffman. 2013. Towards closing the watershed nitrogen budget: Spatial and temporal scaling of denitrification. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 118:1-5; DOI: 10.1002/jgrg.20090 Groffman PM, Pouyat RV, Cadenasso ML, Zipperer WC, Szlavecz K, Yesilonis IC,. Band LE and Brush GS. 2006. Land use context and natural soil controls on plant community composition and soil nitrogen and carbon dynamics in urban and rural forests. Forest Ecology and Management 236:177-192. Groffman, P.M., C.O. Williams, R.V. Pouyat, L.E. Band and I.C. Yesilonis. 2009. Nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide flux in urban forests and grasslands. Journal of Environmental Quality 38:1848-1860. Groffman, P.M. and R.V. Pouyat. 2009. Methane uptake in urban forests and lawns. Environmental Science and Technology 43:5229-5235. DOI: 10.1021/es803720h. Ni, X. and P.M. Groffman. 2018. Declines in methane uptake in forest soils. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science of the United States of America 115:8587-8590. Savva, Y., K. Szlavecz, R. V. Pouyat, P. M. Groffman, and G. Heisler. 2010. Effects of land use and vegetation cover on soil temperature in an urban ecosystem. Soil Science Society of America Journal 74:469-480. Templeton, L., M.L. Cadenasso, J. Sullivan, M. Neel and P.M. Groffman. 2019. Changes in vegetation structure and composition of urban and rural forest patches in Baltimore from 1998 to 2015. Forest Ecology and Management. In press. Waters, E.R., J.L. Morse, N.D. Bettez and P.M. Groffman. 2014. Differential carbon and nitrogen controls of denitrification in riparian zones and streams along an urban to exurban gradient. Journal of Environmental Quality 43:955–963.

Groffman, Peter M↗

Characterization of Surface Heterogeneity-Induced Convection Using Cluster Analysis

Land-atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes often control the formation of shallow clouds and subsequently deep convective precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. In this study, we examine the impacts of large-scale advection on the cloud populations and land-atmospheric coupling observed during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign in 2016. In this work, we performed two Large Eddy Simulations (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for a day in which the transition from clear-sky to shallow precipitating clouds and isolated deep convection was observed. The control simulation reproduced the overall distribution of cloud populations by using realistic soil conditions with an interactive land model. In the sensitivity simulation where large-scale advection is removed, a strong relationship between the land and boundary layer is found. To study the timing, location, and intensity of convective initiation and the relationship of clouds with land surface properties, a cluster analysis of equivalent potential temperature is performed for the simulation without large-scale advection. That analysis shows that convective clouds first form over regions with higher surface sensible heat flux. Precipitation from those convective clouds likely triggers new updrafts nearby about two hours later through the lifting associated with cold pools. Furthermore, the cluster analysis also shows that in addition to the spatial pattern of soil moisture, land use and soil texture in western Oklahoma also influence the location of convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗