Distributed non-negative RESCAL with automatic model selection for exascale data
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Community detection robustness of graph neural networks
Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly widely used for community detection in attributed networks. They combine structural topology with node attributes through message passing and pooling. However, their robustness or lack thereof with respect to different perturbations and targeted attacks in conjunction with community detection tasks is not well understood. To shed light on latent mechanisms behind GNN sensitivity on community detection tasks, we conduct a systematic computational evaluation of six widely adopted GNN architectures graph convolutional network, graph attention network, graph sample and aggregate (GraphSAGE), differentiable pooling (DiffPool), minimum cut pooling (MinCUT), and deep modularity networks (DMoN). The analysis covers three perturbation categories: node attribute manipulations, edge topology distortions, and adversarial attacks. We use element-centric similarity as the evaluation metric on synthetic benchmarks and real-world citation networks. Our findings indicate that supervised GNNs tend to achieve higher baseline accuracy, while unsupervised methods, particularly DMoN, maintain stronger resilience under targeted and adversarial perturbations. Furthermore, robustness appears to be strongly influenced by community strength, with well-defined communities reducing performance loss. Across all models, node attribute perturbations associated with targeted edge deletions and shifts in attribute distributions tend to cause the largest degradation in community recovery. These findings highlight important trade-offs between accuracy and robustness in GNN-based community detection and offer insights into selecting architectures resilient to noise and adversarial attacks.
Goel, Jaidev [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State↗
Latent Dirichlet Allocation modeling of environmental microbiomes
Interactions between stressed organisms and their microbiome environments may provide new routes for understanding and controlling biological systems. However, microbiomes are a form of high-dimensional data, with thousands of taxa present in any given sample, which makes untangling the interaction between an organism and its microbial environment a challenge. Here we apply Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a technique for language modeling, which decomposes the microbial communities into a set of topics (non-mutually-exclusive sub-communities) that compactly represent the distribution of full communities. LDA provides a lens into the microbiome at broad and fine-grained taxonomic levels, which we show on two datasets. In the first dataset, from the literature, we show how LDA topics succinctly recapitulate many results from a previous study on diseased coral species. We then apply LDA to a new dataset of maize soil microbiomes under drought, and find a large number of significant associations between the microbiome topics and plant traits as well as associations between the microbiome and the experimental factors, e.g. watering level. This yields new information on the plant-microbial interactions in maize and shows that LDA technique is useful for studying the coupling between microbiomes and stressed organisms.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data
This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Simultaneous global and local clustering in multiplex networks with covariate information
Understanding both global and layer-specific group structures is useful for uncovering complex patterns in networks with multiple interaction types. In this work, we introduce a new model, the hierarchical multiplex stochastic blockmodel, which simultaneously detects communities within individual layers of a multiplex network while inferring a global node clustering across the layers. A stochastic blockmodel is assumed in each layer, with probabilities of layer-level group memberships determined by a node’s global group assignment. Our model uses a Bayesian framework, employing a probit stick-breaking process to construct node-specific mixing proportions over a set of shared Griffiths–Engen–McCloseky distributions. These proportions determine layer-level community assignment, allowing for an unknown and varying number of groups across layers, while incorporating nodal covariate information to inform the global clustering. We propose a scalable variational inference procedure with parallelisable updates for application to large networks. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate our model’s ability to accurately recover both global and layer-level clusters in complicated settings, and applications to real data showcase the model’s effectiveness in uncovering interesting latent network structure.
community detection↗
Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region
This data package contains observation-based and model-simulated datasets (all provided in NetCDF format) for evaluating how wintertime lake-ice representation affects regional weather and climate over the Laurentian Great Lakes (freshwater lake ecosystem) during the high–ice-cover winter of 2009. The observational component includes: (1) Stage IV gridded precipitation at 4 km, hourly resolution for January–February 2009 over the Great Lakes region (radar–gauge multisensor precipitation analyses); (2) Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) satellite-derived lake-ice coverage at 1.3 km, daily resolution for the 2009 winter months, providing ice coverage over Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and (3) in situ measurements at the Standard Rock site on Lake Superior from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) at hourly resolution, including near-surface atmospheric variables and sensible and latent heat fluxes (air–lake exchange) at a fixed point location. The modeling component provides corresponding fields from two simulations, both archived at 4 km, hourly resolution: a standalone Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF) run driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a two-way coupled model using WRF and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (WRF-FVCOM, a 3-D hydrodynamic lake model). These outputs include variables relevant to air–lake interaction and lake-effect processes (e.g., near-surface temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and surface turbulent fluxes), enabling direct comparison with the observational datasets. Users can analyze and visualize these NetCDF files with common tools such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4, numpy, pandas), NCO/CDO, Panoply, or ncview; NetCDF variables can also be converted to other formats (e.g., CSV, GeoTIFF) using these utilities.
EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations
Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.
Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
Global impacts of vegetation clumping on regulating land surface heat fluxes
The clumping index (CI) quantifies the non-random distribution of vegetation across space, which regulates the canopy radiative transfer processes and land surface carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, its impact on global surface energy budget, particularly sensible heat fluxes and surface temperature, is not well understood. Additionally, while there have been studies showing significant seasonal variations in CI, the impacts of these variations on surface energy fluxes remain unclear. In this study, we incorporated satellite-derived spatially and temporally explicit CI data into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to evaluate the effects of CI on global land energy fluxes. Our results showed that including CI increased the global mean sensible heat flux dissipated from ground by 3.9 W m -2 (~18%), while decreasing the global mean vegetation sensible heat flux by 4.9 W m -2 (~65%), resulting in a total sensible heat decrease of 1.0 W m -2 (~3%). In contrast, CI increased the global mean latent heat flux by 0.8 W m -2 (~2%), primarily due to increased evapotranspiration (up to 11 W m -2 ) in tropical regions. We also found considerable impacts of seasonal variations in CI, particularly on sensible heat fluxes from ground and vegetation in evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous needleleaf forests. Using constant CI rather than considering seasonal variations resulted in significant overestimation and underestimation of the sensible heat fluxes from vegetation and ground, respectively, in boreal summer. In conclusion, these changes in surface energy fluxes caused by CI and its seasonal variations led to up to 1.7 and 0.5 K differences in simulated mean ground temperature. These findings highlight the importance of including CI and considering its seasonal variations in modeling land surface energy fluxes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Structure‐Aware Representation Learning for Effective Performance Prediction
ABSTRACT Application performance is a function of several unknowns stemming from the interactions between the application, runtime, OS, and underlying hardware, making it challenging to model performance using deep learning techniques, especially without a large labeled dataset. Collecting such labeled longitudinal datasets can take weeks. Intuitively, developers could save analysis time during code development by taking a comparative approach between multiple applications. However, the unknown dynamic interactions between applications and execution environments make it difficult for deep learning‐based models to predict the performance of new applications. In this paper, we address these problems by presenting a labeled dataset for the community and taking a comparative analysis approach to explore the source code differences between different correct implementations of the same problem. This paper assesses the feasibility of using purely static information, for example, Abstract Syntax Tree (AST), of applications to predict performance change based on code structure. We evaluate several deep learning‐based representation learning techniques for source code and propose an architecture for the tree‐based Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) models to discover latent representations for a source code's hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that our proposed architecture enables feed‐forward predictive models to predict change in performance using source code with up to 84% accuracy.
Ramadan, Tarek [Department of Computer Science Tex↗
More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High‐Resolution Earth System Model
Abstract Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions.
Gao, Yang↗
PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites
Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
AmeriFlux US-GL1 Stannard Rock
This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.
Spence, Chris↗
AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-GL1 Stannard Rock
This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-GL1 Stannard Rock produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Stannard Rock is located 39 km from the nearest shore (Keweenaw Peninsula) in Lake Superior, 44 miles NNE of Marquette, Michigan, and 24 miles ESE of Manitou Island. The site is located on the historic Stannard Rock Lighthouse, which was completed in 1882. Eddy covariance instrumentation was installed in 2008 by a network of scientists from both US and Canada, eventually to be called the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN). The intent of GLEN has been to provide observations of over-lake meteorology and evaporation, improve forecasting of Great Lakes water levels, and support a wide variety of stakeholders, including the National Weather Service (NWS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, recreational boaters and commercial shipping, emergency management officials, and the Great Lakes research community. The eddy covariance station along with other ancillary meteorological instrumentation is located at an approximate elevation of 39.2 meters above mean lake water level. Meteorological data from the lighthouse are sent to the National Data Buoy Center, where they can be viewed in real-time at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=stdm4 Uncorrected half-hour fluxes were computed directly on the logger using a 30-minute block averaging period as high-frequency data were not available. The half hour flux measurements downloaded from the datalogger were post-processed with the following filters and corrections. Latent and sensible heat and carbon dioxide fluxes were corrected with 2-D coordinate rotation. Although the primary objective of data collection at Stannard Rock was to quantify the evaporative flux, additional preliminary measurements of the carbon dioxide concentration and flux from the LI-7500 are also included in this dataset but it is advised to use the carbon data with caution. Carbon data reported in this dataset includes turbulent fluxes of CO2 with no storage correction (FC, µmol m-2 s-1) and CO2 density in mole fraction of wet air (CO2), which was originally output on the datalogger as average CO2 density (mg m-2 s-1) and converted into µmol mol-1 using air temperature and pressure in post-processing. Webb, Pearman, and Leuning terms were applied to account for density fluctuations for water vapor and CO2. Sonic path length, high-frequency attenuation and sensor separation were accounted for according to Horst and Massman, and the oxygen absorption correction for the KH2O hygrometer was also applied. Latent and sensible heat fluxes were assumed to be unrealistic above an absolute value of 1000 W m-2 and were removed. Both carbon flux (FC) and carbon dioxide mole fraction in wet air (CO2) and were assumed to be unrealistic above 1000 µmol m-2 s-1 and 1000 µmol mol-1 respectively. Spikes in latent and sensible heat and carbon fluxes and densities (often due to periods of precipitation) were identified by computing the mean and standard deviation over a moving, overlapping window of 336 half-hours (7 days), similar to Shao et al., and were removed when the flux was more than 1.5 standard deviations from the moving window’s mean. While Vickers and Mahrt use a threshold of 3.5 standard deviations from the mean, a conservative value of 1.5 was chosen due to the noisy nature of over-lake data at this particular site. This process was repeated twice for latent and sensible heat, and carbon dioxide fluxes and densities and therefore it is possible that some real, realistic data was filtered out in this process. No detrending was performed. As per AmeriFlux standards, no friction velocity (USTAR, m s-1) filtering was performed.
Spence, Chris [Environment and Climate Change Cana↗
A Case Study Investigating the Low Summertime CAPE Behavior in the Global Forecast System
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important index for storm forecasting. Recent versions (v15.2 and v16) of the Global Forecast System (GFS) predict lower values of CAPE during summertime in the continental United States than analysis and observation. We conducted an evaluation of the GFS in simulating summertime CAPE using an example from the Unified Forecast System Case Study collection to investigate the factors that lead to the low CAPE bias in GFS. Specifically, we investigated the surface energy budget, soil properties, and near-surface and upper-level meteorological fields. Results show that the GFS simulates smaller surface latent heat flux and larger surface sensible heat flux than the observations. This can be attributed to the slightly drier-than-observed soil moisture in the GFS that comes from an offline global land data assimilation system. The lower simulated CAPE in GFS v16 is related to the early drop of surface net radiation with excessive boundary layer cloud after midday when compared with GFS v15.2. A moisture-budget analysis indicates that errors in the large-scale advection of water vapor does not contribute to the dry bias in the GFS at low levels. Common Community Physics Package single-column model (SCM) experiments suggest that with realistic initial vertical profiles, SCM simulations generate a larger CAPE than runs with GFS IC. SCM runs with an active LSM tend to produce smaller CAPE than that with prescribed surface fluxes. Note that the findings are only applicable to this case study. Including more warm-season cases would enhance the generalizability of our findings.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An Overview of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Global Climatology, Satellite Observations, and Modeling Strategies
Deep convection is responsible for redistributing water as well as energy and providing vital water resources for many regions of the world. Cumulonimbus clouds aggregation into a single storm system develop mesoscale convective systems (MCS). MCSs have precipitation covering a horizontal region on the scale of 100?km or more. After more than the last seven decades, MCS has been gradually received wide attention in the scientific community as an important component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle and energy balance. MCSs differ from ordinary deep convection because of the mesoscale circulations consisting of a layer of air overturning on a scale much larger than those created by individual convective updrafts or downdrafts. Moreover, a key feature that separates MCS from ordinary deep convection is the significant portion of stratiform precipitation that results in the production and detrainment of a large number of ice particles from their organized convective cores and continues the mesoscale ascent that supports ice growth and aggregation as the crystals fall. This significant stratiform precipitation gives rise to top-heavy latent heating profiles that have substantial impacts on the upper-level global circulations, especially for those MCS that have a larger portion of stratiform rainfall. Top-heavy latent heating profiles are more frequent over the ocean than over the land. These unique features of MCS suggest that they are important for the hydrologic cycle, general circulation, and radiative balance of the climate system. In this chapter, we focus on the recent advances in the climatological perspective of MCS as well as the research tools used to better understand MCS after the advent of the satellite era. We will discuss both tropical and midlatitude MCS, the influence of modes of tropical climate variability on MCS, and the new insight from satellite observations on MCS interaction with the land surface.
Chakraborty, Sudip↗
Sensitivity of Arctic Surface Temperature to Including a Comprehensive Ocean Interior Reflectance to the Ocean Surface Albedo Within the Fully Coupled CESM2
Abstract Almost all current climate models simplify the ocean surface albedo (OSA) by assuming the reflected solar energy without the ocean interior contribution. In this study, an improved ocean surface albedo scheme is incorporated into the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to assess the sensitivity of Arctic surface temperature to including ocean interior reflectance to the OSA. Fully coupled CESM2 simulations with and without ocean interior reflectance are subsequently performed, we focus on the analysis of Arctic surface temperature responses. Incorporating ocean interior reflectance increases absorbed solar radiation and warms the ocean, enhancing seasonal heat storage and release across the Arctic Ocean, and increasing sea ice reduction and positive climate feedbacks that elevates Arctic surface temperature. Seasonal variations in air‐surface temperature differences induce changes in turbulent heat flux patterns, concurrently modifying dynamic advection and moisture processes that affect boundary layer humidity and low clouds, especially in winter. Based on partitioning physical processes in the thermodynamic energy equation, surface air warming is induced primarily through positive heating anomalies of vertical advection, latent heat release, and longwave radiative forcing. Through an examination of the surface energy budget, skin temperature warming is driven predominantly by increased downward longwave radiation, positive surface albedo feedback in summer, and increased conductive heat transport from the ocean particularly in winter. Significant effects of ocean interior reflectance on the Arctic Ocean, including sea surface warming and sea ice reduction, justify the importance of ocean interior reflectance in climate models for better understanding of ongoing Arctic climate changes.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Surface heat flux and its association with the MJO in the tropical western Pacific using ARM observations
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a major atmospheric phenomenon in the tropics that moves eastward every 20 to 100 days. It brings heavy rain and strong winds, influencing extreme weather events far beyond the tropics – including flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes and heavy snow in the United States. Therefore, an improved understanding of the MJO is critical for enhancing weather forecasts and supporting better decision-making for communities, emergency managers, and the private sector. Past studies, based on short-term observations or long-term model data, have emphasized the dominant role of atmospheric humidity in driving the MJO. Our research, using long-term observations (2000-2014) from three U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the tropical western Pacific (Manus, Nauru, and Darwin) confirms those past findings. However, we also show that atmospheric temperature, especially in the mid and upper troposphere, also plays a key role in the MJO’s evolution from its quiet (suppressed) to convective (active) phase. These findings provide valuable insights into how the MJO evolves and may help evaluate and improve weather and climate models. Our study also examined how the exchange of heat between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere, called surface heat flux, interacts with the MJO. This flux includes components such as latent heat (related to evaporation), sensible heat (related to temperature difference between surface and atmosphere), and radiation. We found that modulation in MJO convection is well connected to surface heat flux over the tropical western Pacific. One surface heat flux component often overlooked is the sensible heat flux due to precipitation (Q P ). Since falling raindrops are typically cooler than the land or ocean surface, they can cool the surface and affect local weather. To test the impact of Q P on convection during MJO, we incorporated it into a weather model, and ran simulations for two periods: April 2009 (when the MJO was active) and June 2006 (when it was not). Including Q P reduced errors in simulating the daily peak of rainfall—by 83% during the strong MJO and 23% during the inactive phase. It also improved the timing of peak daily rainfall and reduced the overall precipitation error by about 10%. These improvements were especially noticeable during periods of heavy rainfall. Our results suggest that even small heat exchanges from rainfall can play a significant role in shaping local weather. Accounting for these effects, particularly in regions like the tropical islands, can lead to more accurate simulations of the MJO-associated precipitation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An interactive machine learning platform for analyzing multi-particle coincidence data from cold target recoil ion momentum spectroscopy
We present SCULPT (Supervised Clustering and Uncovering Latent Patterns with Training), a comprehensive software platform for analyzing tabulated high-dimensional multi-particle coincidence data from Cold Target Recoil Ion Momentum Spectroscopy (COLTRIMS) experiments. The software addresses critical challenges in modern momentum spectroscopy by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with physics-informed analysis in an interactive web-based environment. SCULPT implements uniform manifold approximation and projection for non-linear dimensionality reduction to reveal correlations in high-dimensional data. We also discuss potential extensions to deep autoencoders for feature learning and genetic programming for automated discovery of physically meaningful observables. A novel adaptive confidence scoring system provides quantitative reliability assessments by evaluating user-selected clustering quality metrics with predefined weights that reflect each metric’s robustness. The platform features configurable molecular profiles for different experimental systems, interactive visualization with selection tools, and comprehensive data filtering capabilities. Utilizing a subset of SCULPT’s capabilities, we analyze photo-double-ionization data measured using the COLTRIMS method for three-body dissociation of the D 2 O molecule, revealing distinct fragmentation channels and their correlations with physics parameters. The software’s modular architecture and web-based implementation make it accessible to the broader atomic and molecular physics community, significantly reducing the time required for complex multi-dimensional analyses. This opens the door to finding and isolating rare events exhibiting non-linear correlations on the fly during experimental measurements, which can help steer exploration and improve the efficiency of experiments.
Artificial neural networks↗