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Our learning model has memory templates representing the target-plus-noise and noise-alone stimulus sets. The best correlating template determines the response. The correlations and the feedback participate in the additive template updating rule. The model can predict the relative thresholds for detection in random, fixed and twin noise.
We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.
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This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.
An unsupervised learning model for developing LM specific wiring at the ganglion cell level would support the research indicating LM specific wiring at the ganglion cell level (Reid and Shapley, 2002). Removing the contributions to the surround from cells of the same cone type improves the signal-to-noise ratio of the chromatic signals. The unsupervised learning model used is Hebbian associative learning, which strengthens the surround input connections according to the correlation of the output with the input. Since the surround units of the same cone type as the center are redundant with the center, their weights end up disappearing. This process can be thought of as a general mechanism for eliminating unnecessary cells in the nervous system.
Learning model of brain stem reticular formation based on nonlinear probabilistic hybrid computer concepts
Dense time-series remote sensing data with detailed spatial information are highly desired for the monitoring of dynamic earth systems. Due to the sensor tradeoff, most remote sensing systems cannot provide images with both high spatial and temporal resolutions. Spatiotemporal image fusion models provide a feasible solution to generate such a type of satellite imagery, yet existing fusion methods are limited in predicting rapid and/or transient phenological changes. Additionally, a systematic approach to assessing and understanding how varying levels of temporal phenological changes affect fusion results is lacking in spatiotemporal fusion research. The objective of this study is to develop an innovative hybrid deep learning model that can effectively and robustly fuse the satellite imagery of various spatial and temporal resolutions. The proposed model integrates two types of network models: super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). SRCNN can enhance the coarse images by restoring degraded spatial details, while LSTM can learn and extract the temporal changing patterns from the time-series images. To systematically assess the effects of varying levels of phenological changes, we identify image phenological transition dates and design three temporal phenological change scenarios representing rapid, moderate, and minimal phenological changes. The hybrid deep learning model, alongside three benchmark fusion models, is assessed in different scenarios of phenological changes. Results indicate the hybrid deep learning model yields significantly better results when rapid or moderate phenological changes are present. It holds great potential in generating high-quality time-series datasets of both high spatial and temporal resolutions, which can further benefit terrestrial system dynamic studies. The innovative approach to understanding phenological changes’ effect will help us better comprehend the strengths and weaknesses of current and future fusion models.
Predicting transition locations over a vehicle surface is of fundamental importance for many engineering applications. With the transition information, the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) computations can turn on the turbulence model at the right locations so that drag, lift and other aerodynamic quantities can be accurately predicted. In contrast to the popularity of RANS-based transition modeling in which transition onset is governed by the turbulence equations, physics-based transition models that account for instability waves within the boundary layer, thus more compliant to flow physics, only gained more attention in recent years. This paper describes the development of a new physics-based transition model based on either the linear stability theory (LST) or parabolized stability equations (PSE). The model is designed to communicate with a structured or unstructured-mesh RANS solver back and forth in order to more accurately compute transition fronts over a three-dimensional body. In the developed model, the Python suite of interface codes in conjunction with the LASTRAC software can be executed autonomously to produce transition onset locations for a given laminar or RANS-computed transitional state. In addition, as a proof of concept, the tool set consists of a deep learning neural network model that has been designed and trained to predict instability wave evolutions inside the boundary layer for various instability wave mechanisms across a selected speed range. A machine-learned intelligent profile interpolation model has also been devised to enable reliable instability-wave spectra predictions with just a few points in the mean flow profiles.
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As a common phenomenon over Antarctica, blowing snow (BLSN), especially the large BLSN storms, play an important role in the Antarctic surface mass balance, radiation budget, and planetary boundary layer processes. This study presents the work on BLSN storm identification and analysis with observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite. Spectral analysis shows that BLSN identification is feasible with MODIS daytime data. A random forest machine learning model is developed and observations from the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization are used for training. Model performance results show that machine‐learning based classification can achieve over 90% overall accuracy when classifying MODIS pixels into cloud, clear, and BLSN categories. The machine learning model is applied to MODIS observations during the month of October 2009 for BLSN storm analysis. Results show that the size of BLSN storms has a large spectrum and can reach hundreds of thousands km2. The MODIS based BLSN storm frequency map extends the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations coverage limit from 82°S to the South Pole. A BLSN storm belt, which extends from the South Pole region to the coastal area between 130°E and 160°E along the Transantarctic Mountains, provides a potential pathway of snow transport. These results are important in improving the understanding of BLSN impact on Antarctic surface mass balance and boundary layer processes.
Learning models for identification, adaptation, and sensitivity of optimal control systems
This paper presents the work on using a machine learning model to diagnose Antarctic blowing snow (BLSN) properties with the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2) data. We adopt the random forest classifier for BLSN identification and the random forest regressor for BLSN optical depth and height diagnosis. BLSN properties observed from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used as the truth for training the model. Using MERRA-2 fields such as snow age, surface elevation and pressure, temperature, specific humidity, and temperature gradient at the 2m level, and wind speed at the 10m level as input, reasonable results are achieved. Hourly blowing snow property diagnostics are generated with the trained model. Using the year 2010 as an example, it is shown that the Antarctic BLSN frequency is much higher over East than West Antarctica. High frequency months are from April to September, during which BLSN frequency exceeds 20% over East Antarctica. For May 2010, the BLSN snow frequency in the region is as high as 37%. Due to the suppression by strong surface-based inversions, larger values of BLSN height and optical depth are usually limited to the coastal regions, wherein the strength of surface-based inversions is weaker.
Solar sail deformation leads to disturbance torques from solar radiation pressure, driving performance requirements for momentum management systems. For the Solar Cruiser technology demonstrator mission, we have developed a model leveraging neural network-based machine learning to derive sail shape characteristics. The model uses torque and attitude telemetry simulated from a reduced-order tensor model of the deformed sail mesh over a characterization sequence. The machine learning model predicts sail boom deflection with comparable accuracy to that of an onboard context camera. This model can discover sail shape with no additional mass or data downlink requirements, allowing for validation of sail force modeling assumptions using in flight data. The results from the project hold promise for the further implementation of machine learning techniques in solar sail telemetry analysis and control.
Solar sail deformation leads to disturbance torques from solar radiation pressure, driving performance requirements for momentum management systems. For the Solar Cruiser technology demonstrator mission, we have developed a model leveraging neural network-based machine learning to derive sail shape characteristics. The model uses torque and attitude telemetry simulated from a reduced-order tensor model of the deformed sail mesh over a characterization sequence. The machine learning model predicts sail boom deflection with comparable accuracy to that of an onboard context camera. This model can discover sail shape with no additional mass or data downlink requirements, allowing for validation of sail force modeling assumptions using in flight data. The results from the project hold promise for the further implementation of machine learning techniques in solar sail telemetry analysis and control.
Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.
This paper presents a method for reconstructing the historical hourly concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) over the Kathmandu Valley from 1980 to the present. The method uses a machine learning model that is trained using PM2.5 readings from US Embassy (Phora Durbar) as a ground truth, and the meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA2) as input. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model acquires a credible 10-fold cross-validation (CV) score of ~83.4%, an r2-score of ~84%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~15.82 µg/m3, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ~10.27 µg/m3. Further demonstrating the model's applicability to years other than those for which truth values are unavailable, the multiple cross-test with an unseen data set offered r2-scores for 2018, 2019, and 2020 ranging from 56% to 67%. The model-predicted data agrees with true values and indicates that MERRA2 underestimates PM2.5 over the region. It strongly agrees with ground-based evidence showing substantially higher mass concentrations in the dry pre- and post-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon months. It also shows a strong anti-correlation between PM2.5 concentration and humidity. The results also demonstrate that none of the years fulfilled the annual mean air quality index (AQI) standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an important part of ensuring reliable operations of complex safety- critical systems. System-level remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a much more complex problem than making estimations at the component level, and system-level RUL methodologies remain sparse in the literature. Model-based approaches have traditionally worked in the past for components such as capacitors, MOSFETs, batteries, or hard-drives (to name a few examples), but developing high fidelity dynamics models of cyber physical systems that can be used to study the effects of multiple degrading components in the system remains a challenging task. Some initial work on model-based System RUL predictions was demonstrated in Khorasgani, et al [1], but, to generalize the system-level prognostics problem, we have to resort to pure data driven and hybrid approaches. In this work, we propose an end-to-end data- driven framework for developing deep learning models to predict remaining useful life of cyber physical systems operating under unknown faulty conditions. The raw data is organized with a data schema that improves the model development process and down stream data analysis tasks. Due to the unknown faulty conditions, the raw sensor data is transformed into signals that expose the underlying degradation processes, which are then used for model development. Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the model parameters prior to training and validation. We show that this approach results in accurate predictions within 3 cycles to end of life (EOL). We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the N-CMAPSS turbofan engine dataset recently released by NASA, which includes high fidelity degradation modeling, real world operating conditions, and a large set of fault operating modes.
A process of using machine learning to segment impact ice microstructure is presented and analyzed. The segmentation was conducted with the goal of obtaining average grain size estimations. The model was trained on a set of micrographs of impact ice grown at NASA Glenn’s Icing Research Tunnel. The model leveraged a model pre-trained on a large set of micrographs of various materials as a starting point. Post-processing of the segmented images was done to connect broken boundaries. An automatic method of determining grain size following an ASTM standard was implemented. Segmentation results using different training sets as well as different encoder and decoder pairs are presented. Calculated sizes are compared to manual grain size measurement methods. Results show promise in accuracy as well as a possible improvement in repeatability and consistency. Next steps for improving the model are suggested.