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Results for “Lifetime prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS1990

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.

Dreher, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Skylab orbital lifetime prediction and decay analysis

A record (from preflight planning to earth impact) of skylab's orbital lifetime predictions, its actual decay and analysis are presented. Skylab provided a unique opportunity to develop, confirm and check out procedures and computer programs used for predicting lifetime and reentry. It provided verification of aerodynamic environment which was predicted for several aerodynamic configurations. It also provided data on the density model's reaction to rapidly changing solar flux over relatively short time periods. The effects of solar flux (and the uncertainty in the solar flux predictions) on orbital lifetime are discussed.

Dreher, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Lifetime predictions for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and San Marco spacecraft

Lifetime prediction techniques developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) are described. These techniques were developed to predict the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft orbit, which is decaying due to atmospheric drag, with reentry predicted to occur before the end of 1989. Lifetime predictions were also performed for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), which was deployed on the 1984 SMM repair mission and is scheduled for retrieval on another Space Transportation System (STS) mission later this year. Concepts used in the lifetime predictions were tested on the San Marco spacecraft, which reentered the Earth's atmosphere on December 6, 1988. Ephemerides predicting the orbit evolution of the San Marco spacecraft until reentry were generated over the final 90 days of the mission when the altitude was less than 380 kilometers. The errors in the predicted ephemerides are due to errors in the prediction of atmospheric density variations over the lifetime of the satellite. To model the time dependence of the atmospheric densities, predictions of the solar flux at the 10.7-centimeter wavelength were used in conjunction with Harris-Priester (HP) atmospheric density tables. Orbital state vectors, together with the spacecraft mass and area, are used as input to the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS). Propagations proceed in monthly segments, with the nominal atmospheric drag model scaled for each month according to the predicted monthly average value of F10.7. Calibration propagations are performed over a period of known orbital decay to obtain the effective ballistic coefficient. Progagations using plus or minus 2 sigma solar flux predictions are also generated to estimate the despersion in expected reentry dates. Definitive orbits are compared with these predictions as time expases. As updated vectors are received, these are also propagated to reentryto continually update the lifetime predictions.

Smith, E. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1978

Measurement requirements and techniques for degradation studies and lifetime prediction testing of photovoltaic modules

Tests of weathering and aging behavior are being developed to characterize the degradation and predict the lifetimes of low-cost photovoltaic arrays. Environmental factors which affect array performance include UV radiation, thermal energy, water, oxygen (generally involved in synergistic effects with UV radiation or high temperatures), physical stress, pollutants (oxides of nitrogen, sulfur dioxide and ozone), abrasives and dirt. A survey of photovoltaic array testing has shown the need to establish quantitative correlations between certain measurable properties (carbonyl formation, glass transition temperature, and molecular weight change) and modes of degradation and failure.

Noel, G. T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Lifetime Predictions of a Titanium Silicate Glass with Machined Flaws

A dynamic fatigue study was performed on a Titanium Silicate glass to assess its susceptibility to delayed failure and to compare the results with those of a previous study. Fracture mechanics techniques were used to analyze the results for the purpose of making lifetime predictions. The material strength and lifetime was seen to increase due to the removal of residual stress through grinding and polishing. Influence on time-to-failure is addressed for the case with and without residual stress present. Titanium silicate glass otherwise known as ultra-low expansion (ULE)* glass is a candidate for use in applications requiring low thermal expansion characteristics such as telescope mirrors. The Hubble Space Telescope s primary mirror was manufactured from ULE glass. ULE contains 7.5% titanium dioxide which in combination with silica results in a homogenous glass with a linear expansion coefficient near zero. delayed failure . This previous study was based on a 230/270 grit surface. The grinding and polishing process reduces the surface flaw size and subsurface damage, and relieves residual stress by removing the material with successively smaller grinding media. This results in an increase in strength of the optic during the grinding and polishing sequence. Thus, a second study was undertaken using samples with a surface finish typically achieved for mirror elements, to observe the effects of surface finishing on the time-to-failure predictions. An allowable stress can be calculated for this material based upon modulus of rupture data; however, this does not take into account the problem of delayed failure, most likely due to stress corrosion, which can significantly shorten lifetime. Fortunately, a theory based on fracture mechanics has been developed enabling lifetime predictions to be made for brittle materials susceptible to delayed failure. Knowledge of the factors governing the rate of subcritical flaw growth in a given environment enables the development of relations between lifetime, applied stress and failure probability for the material under study. Dynamic fatigue is one method of obtaining the necessary information to develop these relationships. In this study, the dynamic fatigue method was used to construct a time-to-failure diagram for polished ULE glass.

Tucker, Dennis S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗
NASA NTRS1989

Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

Binebrink, A. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Lifetime Prediction of Semiconductor Devices Using Hardware-in-the-Loop

This paper presents a unique approach to enable real-time lifespan prediction of semiconductor power modules using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) system. By integrating the module's overall loss characteristics-specifically switching and conduction losses-with a thermoelectric model of the thermal management system, this research demonstrates that the model can dynamically estimates the junction temperature profile of the semiconductor devices in response to a changing torque demand profile for the motor drive system. This capability enables continuous monitoring of the module's operational time and cumulative stress induced on the devices to compute accumulated remaining lifetime or time-to-failure (TTF). This study provides an architectural framework for the HIL system with high-fidelity component models of multiple physical domains, allowing simulation of dynamic behaviors of a closely-coupled motor drive system. The advanced real-time computation and measurement functionalities of the HIL system allow for both dynamic lifetime calculations based on simulated data and aggregate lifetime predictions utilizing historical data. Moreover, this paper details an algorithm that not only computes cumulative damage but also synthesizes these data into a comprehensive aggregated lifetime metric. This methodology can enhance the maintenance scheduling strategies and operational reliability of semiconductor devices in critical applications, ultimately extending their service life while optimizing performance.

hardware-in-the-loop (HIL)↗
NASA NTRS2006

Predicting Lifetime of a Thermomechanically Loaded Component

NASALIFE is a computer program for predicting the lifetime, as affected by low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep rupture, of a structural component subject to temporally varying, multiaxial thermomechanical loads. The component could be, for example, part of an aircraft turbine engine. Empirical data from LCF tests, creep rupture tests, and static tensile tests are used as references for predicting the number of missions the component can withstand under a given thermomechanical loading condition. The user prepares an input file containing the creep-rupture and cyclic-fatigue information, temperature-dependent material properties, and mission loading and control flags. The creep rupture information can be entered in tabular form as stress versus life or by means of parameters of the Larson-Miller equation. The program uses the Walker mean-stress model to adjust predicted life for ranges of the ratio between the maximum and minimum stresses. Data representing complex load cycles are reduced by the rainflow counting method. Miner's rule is utilized to combine the damage at different load levels. Finally, the program determines the total damage due to creep and combines it with the fatigue damage due to the cyclic loading and predicts the approximate number of missions a component can endure before failing.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

Jordan, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Predicting Lifetimes Of CMOS ASIC's From Test Data

Concise report discusses recent developments in use of semiempirical mathematical models to predict rates of failure and operating lifetimes of complementary metal oxide/semiconductor (CMOS) application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC's). Each model represents specific mechanism of failure. Once failure mechanisms and models relevant to given ASIC chosen, adjustable parameters in models fitted to life-test data acquired from representative integrated-circuit structures on test coupons fabricated along with ASIC's. Then design parameters of ASIC's incorporated into models, and models yield lifetimes.

Buehler, Martin G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Predicting lifetime of cast parts

Life expectancy of cast aluminum machine parts can be predicted accurately from fatigue tests at 78 K on notched specimens of aluminum alloy. Method was developed for rocket engine turbopump parts made of high strength, heat treatable alloy with high silicon content; however, technique is applicable to other aluminum casting alloys.

Cooper, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Lifetime prediction of materials exposed to the natural space environment

The goal of this study is to model the lifetime of different types of seal materials based on results obtained from accelerated experiments. A semi-mechanistic approach was taken. Thermal aging data were taken from the literature whereas experiments were conducted at Auburn under this contract for selected environments. The seal materials of interest are Silicone 383, Silicone 650, Viton 835, and Viton 747. The relevant conditions include thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, and gamma radiation. Compression set data available from NASA were used to examine the thermal effect. Experiments were conducted at Auburn University and at NASA to isolate the role of thermal, oxygen, inert gas, vacuum, gamma irradiation, and proton irradiation. A simple discrete stress relaxation method was developed to determine the relaxation response of the elastomers. Dynamic mechanical thermal analysis was also used to characterize the mechanical response of the specimens. These provide a more meaningful correlation between mechanisms and degradation.

Zee, Ralph↗
NASA NTRS1985

SSME lifetime prediction and verification, integrating environments, structures, materials: The challenge

The planned missions for the space shuttle dictated a unique and technology-extending rocket engine. The high specific impulse requirements in conjunction with a 55-mission lifetime, plus volume and weight constraints, produced unique structural design, manufacturing, and verification requirements. Operations from Earth to orbit produce severe dynamic environments, which couple with the extreme pressure and thermal environments associated with the high performance, creating large low cycle loads and high alternating stresses above endurance limit which result in high sensitivity to alternating stresses. Combining all of these effects resulted in the requirements for exotic materials, which are more susceptible to manufacturing problems, and the use of an all-welded structure. The challenge of integrating environments, dynamics, structures, and materials into a verified SSME structure is discussed. The verification program and developmental flight results are included. The first six shuttle flights had engine performance as predicted with no failures. The engine system has met the basic design challenges.

Ryan, R. S.↗