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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Surface Heat Load Analysis Due to Plasma Thermal Radiation on Equatorial Port 09

This paper reports calculated surface heat load owing to plasma thermal radiation, which will be applied to the surfaces of Equatorial Port 09 (EP09) diagnostic shield modules (DSMs) for thermal analysis during normal operation. The calculation assumes that the thermal energy will deposit uniformly in all directions from the plasma to the adjacent components and environment (i.e. gray body radiation). Assuming the temperature for the plasma surface, calculated view factors are used to determine the allocation of thermal energy to each component. The analysis provides an initial assessment of the thermal radiation heat load on the DSMs to be checked in structural/thermal analyses to verify significance. In conclusion, the designs of the EP09 components are still in the early preliminary phase, and changes are expected in the future.

ANSYS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Off-Design Load Analysis of sCO2 Bottoming Cycle for a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant with Carbon Capture

This work starts with the optimal design from Pidaparti et. al (2024) to analyze the off-design performance of the power plant from 100% down to 50% load. The main operational findings and plant-efficiency for off-load conditions while maintaining the target CO2 capture rate are presented. The goal of the work is to determine if there is a relative advantage or disadvantage for the sCO2 bottoming cycle compared to the steam bottoming cycle in terms of reduced load efficiency performance for the NGCC with carbon capture. Results show nearly identical efficiency profiles for the two cases from 100% to 50% load.

Chinen, Anderson Soares↗
DOE OSTI2024

Off-Design Load Analysis of sCO2 Bottoming Cycle for a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant with Carbon Capture

As an alternative to a steam cycle, a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle can be considered. Able et. al performed an analysis of an sCO2 cycle in a 2x2-1 configuration; however, this study did not include carbon capture. Previous studies assumed an H-Frame turbine and added a solvent based 95% carbon capture system and performed a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) optimization for the plant. Their results suggest a LCOE slightly better than when using a steam cycle. In the study, steam is still generated in the heat recovery sections for the solvent regeneration in the carbon capture stripper reboiler. H-Frame gas turbines are also assumed. This work starts with the optimal design from the mentioned work to analyze the off-design performance of the power plant from 100% down to 50% load. The main operational findings and plant-efficiency for off-load conditions while maintaining the target CO2 capture rate are presented. H-Frame gas turbine off-design performance and exhaust conditions to the heat recovery section are obtained from commercial software, Thermoflow®. The CO2 turbomachinery, heat exchangers and other unit operations are sized and implemented in an Aspen Plus® model. Using the gas turbine exhaust conditions as input, the sCO2 cycle is optimized by adjusting stream split ratios, sCO2 circulation flowrate and compressor speed for maximum efficiency. This is done while keeping the target 95% CO2 capture.

Chinen, Anderson Soares↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time and Frequency Analysis of Load Profile Data

Technology advancements and integration of modern advanced metering systems can monitor, forecast, inform, control, and operate the building's mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems. They offer a higher level of information, which can contribute to making smart buildings more energy efficient and to making them closer to becoming grid-interactive energy efficient buildings (GEB). This paper builds on the ongoing research on variability analysis of a case study building with a 1-minute load profile and examines the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) process in the frequency domain to quantify the signal's energy in each bandwidth, with respect to each end-use category. Moreover, the amount of variability in the total variability is not similar among the end-use categories. This information is needed to understand the behavior of the variability in the frequency domain for future applications, such as generating synthetic load profiles with a similar frequency spectrum as the measured signal.

decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2025

AGC-2 Graphite Preirradiation Data Analysis Report

This report describes the specimen loading order and documents all preirradiation examination material property measurement data for graphite specimens contained within the Second Advanced Graphite Capsule (AGC 2) irradiation capsule. The AGC 2 capsule is the second in six planned irradiation capsules comprising the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) test series. The AGC test series is used to irradiate graphite specimens in order to garner quantitative data necessary for predicting the irradiation behavior and operating performance of new nuclear grade graphites. This testing will ascertain the in service behavior of the graphite for pebble bed and prismatic very high temperature reactor designs. Similar to the First Advanced Graphite Capsule (AGC 1) preirradiation examination report, material property tests were conducted on specimens from 18 nuclear grade graphite types. However, AGC 2 tested an increased number of specimens (i.e., 512) prior to loading them into the AGC 2 irradiation assembly. All AGC 2 specimen testing was conducted at Idaho National Laboratory from July 2009 to August 2010. This report also details the specimen loading methodology for graphite specimens inside the AGC 2 irradiation capsule. The AGC 2 capsule design requires “matched pair” creep specimens that have similar dose levels above and below the neutron flux profile mid plane. This provides similar specimens with and without an applied load. Analysis in this document utilizes the neutron flux profile calculated for the AGC 2 capsule design, the capsule dimensions, and the size (i.e., length) of the selected graphite specimens to create a stacking order that produces “matched pairs” of graphite specimens above and below the AGC 2 capsule elevation mid point, thus providing specimens with similar neutron dose levels.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Waste Tank Structural Assessment

This chapter describes the single and double shell tanks at Hanford, analysis of record and static and thermal loads analysis.

Grant, Christopher L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sparse chronology strategy for integrating seasonal energy storage in capacity expansion models

Here, this study develops the sparse chronology method to enhance the representative period framework in capacity expansion models, enabling the effective integration of long-duration energy storage modeling. Traditional representative period methods cannot capture the state of charge of seasonal energy storage systems because they do not establish effective inter-day linkages to connect the state of charge between periods. The sparse chronology approach addresses this limitation by establishing inter-day linkages that allow state of charge to shift inter-seasonally. At the same time, it groups identical representative days into partitions, applying constraints sparsely and implicitly to reduce computational load further. Validation results demonstrate that this method successfully simulates long-duration energy storage patterns, achieving close alignment with a continuous yearly benchmark model, with seasonal trends and state of charge cycles clearly represented. The computational load analysis reveals that the sparse chronology method efficiently applies constraints on maximum and minimum state of charge limits within the representative day framework, eliminating the need for detailed constraints on each individual day. By partitioning representative days and constraining only the start and end of each partition, the method significantly decreases computational requirements. Simulation results show that sparse chronology closely approximates the continuous yearly method's accuracy, even with as few as 20 representative days, achieving correlation values with the benchmark of nearly 0.9 in state of charge plots. Furthermore, it maintains computational efficiency, requiring only 4 % of the solver time compared to the continuous yearly method with 20 representative days. This approach allows capacity expansion models to incorporate long-duration energy storage with high temporal, spatial, and technological resolution, enabling more detailed modeling for large-scale power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaic Racking Design Optimization Based on Wind and Snow Loading Finite Element Analysis

The racking structure of photovoltaic (PV) systems plays a critical role in ensuring the PV panels generate power properly as it provides integral structural support and sometimes even solar tracking ability. Distinct applications of PV systems require variations of racking structure designs, which yield different mechanical performances under external loading conditions from the environment, such as heavy wind and snow. Past works, such as Reddy et al. [1], have analyzed the pressure effects of wind and snow loading on the racking structure of conventional rooftop and utility PV systems, but there is little knowledge of how various agrivoltaic racking systems perform, in terms of stress and strain, under the same loading conditions. There is also a knowledge gap in the industry on a set of optimized agrivoltaic racking design standards. This study investigates the mechanical performance of various existing racking systems and proposes novel designs that are optimized for agrivoltaics applications under wind and snow loading.

Liao, Quanhuan↗
DOE OSTI2026

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subsurface mechanical damage of fused silica glass during grinding by various sub-aperture tools with and without ultrasonics

The subsurface mechanical damage (SSD) depth after grinding fused silica glass with a comprehensive set of sub-aperture fixed abrasive grinding tools [cup, wheel, belt, pad, and rotary face mill (with and without ultrasonics)] and process parameters has been statistically measured using the taper wedge technique and evaluated. Consistent with a previously reported grinding model [J. Non-Cryst. Solids 352, 5601–5617 (2006) Crossref , Materials Science and Technology of Optical Fabrication (Wiley & Sons, 2018)], based on the sliding indentation fracture by sliding particles or asperities where the normal load per particle determines the depth of the fracture (and ultimately the overall SSD depth), the dominant factor controlling SSD depth was found to be the abrasive size regardless of the tool type and process conditions. Compared to full aperture grinding methods, the overall SSD depth was higher using the sub-aperture tools, likely due to the higher effective pressure and higher load per particle distribution. Here, in addition to abrasive size, a significant reduction in SSD depth was achieved by: (1) reducing the load distribution on the abrasive particles via increase in contact area and/or decrease in mechanical loading; (2) using a more compliant host tool medium; and (3) in what we believe is a more novel way, using ultrasonics. Combining low abrasive size, larger contact area, and a compliant host, the 6 µm diamond in a resin matrix (Trizact) on a foam pad led to very low SSD depth (~ 4.6 µm), relatively fast grinding rate (186 mm 3 /h), and little or no figure degradation. This grinding tool/process is an attractive choice for final grind, resulting in significantly reduced polish out (i.e., “grey out”) times. With the rotary face mill tool, the use of ultrasonics consistently led to a SSD depth reduction (ranging from 17%–34%). A new fracture mechanics-based model, to the best of our knowledge, where the relevant normal load is parallel to the feed direction, has been developed to explain how ultrasonics leads to lower SSD depth. The key factors, supported by finite element stress analysis and load measurements, are (1) the initiation of fractures at higher z heights during the tool’s ultrasonic vertical oscillations, thus propagating less deep into workpiece; (2) reduction in load (and therefore reduction in fracture propagation distance) due to smaller tool-workpiece feed direction contact area (again caused by higher heights relative to depth of cut); (3) upward movement of the tool during oscillation leads to fracturing toward the surface instead into the depth; and finally (4) at tool’s lowest point of oscillation cycle, there may not be enough time for the fracture to propagate to its full length.

Optics and optical instruments↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting: experiments, modeling and nationwide analysis

Here, this paper proposes and validates a dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system that shifts building electric load in both cooling and heating modes using a single phase-change TES. The design uses the TES as a heat sink for the condenser in summer and a heat source for the evaporator in winter, thereby reducing on-peak electric demand while ensuring compatible with existing air-distribution systems. A 14-kW TES-HP prototype with six operating modes and novel refrigerant charge management strategies was experimentally tested under varied conditions. Subsequently, data-driven polynomial performance curves were developed and validated against experiments, then coupled with a phase change material (PCM) model and a calibrated building model within a rule-based controller. Single-day case studies demonstrated effective on-peak demand reduction while maintaining thermal comfort. During cooling, hourly power was lowered by up to 1.5 kW; in heating, average hourly power decreased from over 3.5 kW to 1.8 kW, compared to an HP-only system, achieving 64.5 % load shifting, and the need for resistance heating was eliminated. Seasonal simulations showed typical on-peak electricity savings of 25–35 % in cooling and 40–65 % in heating, with the largest benefits on the hottest and coldest days. Extended response-surface analysis and nationwide mapping quantified load shifting as functions of ambient and TES temperatures, revealing a seasonal trade-off in TES phase-change temperature. These results demonstrate the TES-HP system as a practical and scalable solution for grid-interactive buildings that reduces on-peak demand and electricity use while maintaining thermal comfort and enhancing grid flexibility and reliability.

Grid-interactive buildings↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of a grey-box refrigerated case model in EnergyPlus via Python plugin

Commercial buildings, in particular grocery stores (due mainly to their large refrigeration load), provide opportunities for energy cost reductions. Grocery stores could offer substantial load flexibility to the power grid through participation in demand response programs because of their usage patterns and relatively high energy intensity. This load flexibility could come from modifying the control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, refrigeration systems, or both. Although estimation of the HVAC system’s load flexibility potential is relatively targeted in the literature, estimating load flexibility of refrigeration systems is nascent and has been a challenge, in part because of the lack of proper simulation tools that capture the dynamics in the refrigeration cases. The existing refrigerated case model within EnergyPlus, a whole building energy simulation program, assumes a constant case temperature throughout the simulation period and does not explicitly model the cycling of the compressor serving the refrigerated case. In addition, it does not encompass modeling of temperatures of the product inside the refrigerated case. This difference between modeled and actual operation can be a barrier to the development of demand control algorithm and accurate analysis of load flexibility potential. In this paper, we present a grey-box model for modeling refrigerated cases in grocery stores, which include medium temperature and low temperature. Four cases are modeled; two are low-temperature closed cases and two are medium-temperature cases with one closed and one open. Data from an experimental facility are used to train and test the models. Results demonstrate the efficacy of the grey-box models in predicting the temperatures. This model is integrated into EnergyPlus to capture the dynamic effects of case temperature on the environment and enhance the calculation of sensible and latent heat exchange with the environment (case credits). These enhancements can be leveraged more broadly to model advanced refrigeration controls such as defrost, develop and test unique algorithms that could affect refrigeration interactions with HVAC, and refine store design for any commercial building with refrigeration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗