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Results for “Logistic Growth”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF SOLAR FLARES OBSERVED WITH AIA/SDO: FRACTAL DIFFUSION, SUB-DIFFUSION, OR LOGISTIC GROWTH?

We explore the spatio-temporal evolution of solar flares by fitting a radial expansion model r(t) that consists of an exponentially growing acceleration phase, followed by a deceleration phase that is parameterized by the generalized diffusion function r(t){proportional_to}{kappa}(t - t{sub 1}){sup {beta}/2}, which includes the logistic growth limit ({beta} = 0), sub-diffusion ({beta} = 0-1), classical diffusion ({beta} = 1), super-diffusion ({beta} = 1-2), and the linear expansion limit ({beta} = 2). We analyze all M- and X-class flares observed with Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite and Atmospheric Imaging Assembly/Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) during the first two years of the SDO mission, amounting to 155 events. We find that most flares operate in the sub-diffusive regime ({beta} = 0.53 {+-} 0.27), which we interpret in terms of anisotropic chain reactions of intermittent magnetic reconnection episodes in a low plasma-{beta} corona. We find a mean propagation speed of v = 15 {+-} 12 km s{sup -1}, with maximum speeds of v{sub max} = 80 {+-} 85 km s{sup -1} per flare, which is substantially slower than the sonic speeds expected for thermal diffusion of flare plasmas. The diffusive characteristics established here (for the first time for solar flares) is consistent with the fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality model, which predicted diffusive transport merely based on cellular automaton simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A thorough investigation of the progressive reset dynamics in HfO{sub 2}-based resistive switching structures

According to previous reports, filamentary electron transport in resistive switching HfO{sub 2}-based metal-insulator-metal structures can be modeled using a diode-like conduction mechanism with a series resistance. Taking the appropriate limits, the model allows simulating the high (HRS) and low (LRS) resistance states of the devices in terms of exponential and linear current-voltage relationships, respectively. In this letter, we show that this simple equivalent circuit approach can be extended to represent the progressive reset transition between the LRS and HRS if a generalized logistic growth model for the pre-exponential diode current factor is considered. In this regard, it is demonstrated here that a Verhulst logistic model does not provide accurate results. The reset dynamics is interpreted as the sequential deactivation of multiple conduction channels spanning the dielectric film. Fitting results for the current-voltage characteristics indicate that the voltage sweep rate only affects the deactivation rate of the filaments without altering the main features of the switching dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic Analysis of Recalescence Process and Interface Growth of Eutectic Fe{sub 82}B{sub 17}Si{sub 1} Alloy

By employing the glass fluxing technique in combination with cyclical superheating, the microstructural evolution of the undercooled Fe{sub 82}B{sub 17}Si{sub 1} alloy in the obtained undercooling range was studied. With increase in undercooling, a transition of cooling curves was detected from one recalescence to two recalescences, followed by one recalescence. The two types of cooling curves were fitted by the break equation and the Johnson–Mehl–Avrami–Kolmogorov model. Based on the cooling curves at different undercoolings, the recalescence rate was calculated by the multi-logistic growth model and the Boettinger–Coriel–Trivedi model. Both the recalescence features and the interface growth kinetics of the eutectic Fe{sub 82}B{sub 17}Si{sub 1} alloy were explored. The fitting results that were obtained using TEM (SAED), SEM and XRD were consistent with the changing rule of microstructures. Finally, the relationship between the microstructure and hardness was also investigated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

Abstract We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of $$C^{\infty }$$ C ∞ bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of temperature on capacity fade in silicon-rich anodes

Coin half-cells containing 80 wt% silicon electrodes are assembled and cycled at the similar to C/10 rate in the temperature range of 25-55 degrees C. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the effect of temperature is reported for such high-silicon-containing cells. Two different electrolytes are used in this study, a baseline electrolyte and the baseline electrolyte +10 wt% fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC). Analysis of the capacity vs. cycle count data by curve fitting reveals that the addition of FEC markedly affects the capacity loss mechanism. Without FEC, the kinetic rate law for the capacity loss mechanism can be described as the sum of two logistic growth models. With the addition of FEC, the rate law depends on ln(t). Clearly, the addition of FEC has a profound effect on the mechanism of capacity loss. Interestingly, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) shows that the composition of the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer changes markedly from mostly organic to mostly inorganic in the presence of FEC and how it varies at the different temperatures tested, especially in the absence of FEC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Non-linear macro evolution of a dc driven micro atmospheric glow discharge

We studied the macro evolution of the micro atmospheric glow discharge generated between a micro argon jet into ambient air and static water. The micro discharge behaves similarly to a complex ecosystem. Non-linear behaviors are found for the micro discharge when the water acts as a cathode, different from the discharge when water behaves as an anode. Groups of snapshots of the micro discharge formed at different discharge currents are captured by an intensified charge-coupled device with controlled exposure time, and each group consisted of 256 images taken in succession. Edge detection methods are used to identify the water surface and then the total brightness is defined by adding up the signal counts over the area of the micro discharge. Motions of the water surface at different discharge currents show that the water surface lowers increasingly rapidly when the water acts as a cathode. In contrast, the water surface lowers at a constant speed when the water behaves as an anode. The light curves are similar to logistic growth curves, suggesting that a self-inhibition process occurs in the micro discharge. Meanwhile, the total brightness increases linearly during the same time when the water acts as an anode. Discharge-water interactions cause the micro discharge to evolve. The charged particle bomb process is probably responsible for the different behaviors of the micro discharges when the water acts as cathode and anode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

MULTI-WAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS OF THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF SOLAR FLARES WITH AIA/SDO. I. UNIVERSAL SCALING LAWS OF SPACE AND TIME PARAMETERS

We extend a previous statistical solar flare study of 155 GOES M- and X-class flares observed with AIA/SDO to all seven coronal wavelengths (94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304, and 335 Å) to test the wavelength dependence of scaling laws and statistical distributions. Except for the 171 and 193 Å wavelengths, which are affected by EUV dimming caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we find near-identical size distributions of geometric (lengths L, flare areas A, volumes V, and fractal dimension D{sub 2}), temporal (flare durations T), and spatio-temporal parameters (diffusion coefficient κ, spreading exponent β, and maximum expansion velocities v{sub max}) in different wavelengths, which are consistent with the universal predictions of the fractal-diffusive avalanche model of a slowly driven, self-organized criticality (FD-SOC) system, i.e., N(L)∝L {sup –3}, N(A)∝A {sup –2}, N(V)∝V {sup –5/3}, N(T)∝T {sup –2}, and D{sub 2} = 3/2, for a Euclidean dimension d = 3. Empirically, we find also a new strong correlation κ∝L {sup 0.94±0.01} and the three-parameter scaling law L∝κ T {sup 0.1}, which is more consistent with the logistic-growth model than with classical diffusion. The findings suggest long-range correlation lengths in the FD-SOC system that operate in the vicinity of a critical state, which could be used for predictions of individual extreme events. We find also that eruptive flares (with accompanying CMEs) have larger volumes V, longer flare durations T, higher EUV and soft X-ray fluxes, and somewhat larger diffusion coefficients κ than confined flares (without CMEs)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Peak radial growth of diffuse-porous species occurs during periods of lower water availability than for ring-porous and coniferous trees

Climate models project warmer summer temperatures will increase the frequency and heat severity of droughts in temperate forests of Eastern North America. Hotter droughts are increasingly documented to affect tree growth and forest dynamics, with critical impacts on tree mortality, carbon sequestration and timber provision. The growing acknowledgement of the dominant role of drought timing on tree vulnerability to water deficit raises the issue of our limited understanding of radial growth phenology for most temperate tree species. Here, we use well-replicated dendrometer band data sampled frequently during the growing season to assess the growth phenology of 610 trees from 15 temperate species over 6 years. Patterns of diameter growth follow a typical logistic shape, with growth rates reaching a maximum in June, and then decreasing until process termination. On average, we find that diffuse-porous species take 16–18 days less than other wood-structure types to put on 50% of their annual diameter growth. However, their peak growth rate occurs almost a full month later than ring-porous and conifer species (ca. 24 ± 4 days; mean ± 95% credible interval). Unlike other species, the growth phenology of diffuse-porous species in our dataset is highly correlated with their spring foliar phenology. We also find that the later window of growth in diffuse-porous species, coinciding with peak evapotranspiration and lower water availability, exposes them to a higher water deficit of 88 ± 19 mm (mean ± SE) during their peak growth than ring-porous and coniferous species (15 ± 35 mm and 30 ± 30 mm, respectively). Given the high climatic sensitivity of wood formation, our findings highlight the importance of wood porosity as one predictor of species climatic sensitivity to the projected intensification of the drought regime in the coming decades.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Formation of the oxyl’s potential energy surface by the spectral kinetics of a vibrational mode

One of the most reactive intermediates for oxidative reactions is the oxyl radical, an electron-deficient oxygen atom. The discovery of a new vibration upon photoexcitation of the oxygen evolution catalysis detected the oxyl radical at the SrTiO3 surface. The vibration was assigned to a motion of the sub-surface oxygen underneath the titanium oxyl (Ti–O●−) created upon hole transfer to (or electron extraction from) a hydroxylated surface site. Evidence for such an interfacial mode is derived from its spectral shape, which exhibited a Fano resonance—a coupling of a sharp normal mode to continuum excitations. Here, this Fano resonance is utilized to derive precise formation kinetics of the oxyl radical and its associated potential energy surface (PES). From the Fano lineshape, the formation kinetics are obtained from the anti-resonance (the kinetics of the coupling factor), the resonance (the kinetics of the coupled continuum excitations), and the frequency integrated spectrum (the kinetics of the normal mode’s cross-section). All three perspectives yield logistic function growth with a half-rise of 2.3 ± 0.3 ps and a time constant of 0.48 ± 0.09 ps. A non-equilibrium transient associated with photoexcitation is separated from the rise of the equilibrated PES. The logistic function characterizes the oxyl coverage at the very initial stages (t ∼ 0) to have an exponential growth rate that quickly decreases toward zero as a limiting coverage is reached. Such time-dependent reaction kinetics identify a dynamic activation barrier associated with the formation of a PES and quantify it for oxyl radical coverage.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2017

Maternal exposure to selenium and cadmium, fetal growth, and placental expression of steroidogenic and apoptotic genes

Background: Cadmium (Cd) and selenium (Se) antagonistically influence redox balance and apoptotic signaling, with Cd potentially promoting and Se inhibiting oxidative stress and apoptosis. Alterations to placental redox and apoptotic functions by maternal exposure to Cd and Se during pregnancy may explain some of the Cd and Se associations with fetal development. Objectives: Investigate associations between Cd and Se concentrations in maternal toenails with placental expression patterns of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and steroidogenic genes involved in redox reactions and test associations with fetal growth. Methods: In a sub-sample from the Rhode Island Child Health Study (n = 173), we investigated the relationships between: (1) maternal toenail Cd and Se concentrations and fetal growth using logistic regression, (2) Cd and Se interactions with factor scores from placental TNF and steroidogenic expression patterns (RNAseq) using linear models, and (3) TNF and steroidogenic expression factors with fetal growth via analysis of covariance. Results: Se was associated with decreased odds of intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) (OR = 0.27, p-value = 0.045). Cd was associated with increased odds of IUGR (OR = 1.95, p-value = 0.13) and small for gestational age (SGA) births (OR = 1.46, p-value = 0.11), though not statistically significant. Cd and Se concentrations were antagonistically associated with placental TNF and steroidogenic expression patterns, which also differed by birth size. Conclusions: Se may act as an antagonist to Cd and as a modifiable protective factor in fetal growth restriction, and these data suggest these effects may be due to associated variations in the regulation of genes involved in placental redox balance and/or apoptotic signaling. - Highlights: • Tested cadmium and selenium associations with fetal growth and gene expression. • Maternal selenium associated with decreased odds of intrauterine growth restriction. • Cadmium may increase oxidative and apoptotic placental expression patterns. • Selenium may decrease oxidative and apoptotic placental expression patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-based wind turbines with flexible rail-transportable blades – Part 2: 3D finite element design optimization of the rotor blades

Abstract. Increasing growth in land-based wind turbine blades to enable higher machine capacities and capacity factors is creating challenges in design, manufacturing, logistics, and operation. Enabling further blade growth will require technology innovation. An emerging solution to overcome logistics constraints is to segment the blades spanwise and chordwise, which is effective, but the additional field-assembled joints result in added mass and loads, as well as increased reliability concerns in operation. An alternative to this methodology is to design slender flexible blades that can be shipped on rail lines by flexing during transport. However, the increased flexibility is challenging to accommodate with a typical glass-fiber, upwind design. In a two-part paper series, several design options are evaluated to enable slender flexible blades: downwind machines, optimized carbon fiber, and active aerodynamic controls. Part 1 presents the system-level optimization of the rotor variants as compared to conventional and segmented baselines, with a low-fidelity representation of the blades. The present work, Part 2, supplements the system-level optimization in Part 1 with high-fidelity blade structural optimization to ensure that the designs are at feasible optima with respect to material strength and fatigue limits, as well as global stability and structural dynamics constraints. To accommodate the requirements of the design process, a new version of the Numerical Manufacturing And Design (NuMAD) code has been developed and released. The code now supports laminate-level blade optimization and an interface to the International Energy Agency Wind Task 37 blade ontology. Transporting long, flexible blades via controlled flapwise bending is found to be a viable approach for blades of up to 100 m. The results confirm that blade mass can be substantially reduced by going either to a downwind design or to a highly coned and tilted upwind design. A discussion of active and inactive constraints consisting of material rupture, fatigue damage, buckling, deflection, and resonant frequencies is presented. An analysis of driving load cases revealed that the downwind designs are dominated by loads from sudden, abrupt events like gusts rather than fatigue. Finally, an analysis of carbon fiber spar caps for downwind machines finds that, compared to typical carbon fibers, the use of a new heavy-tow carbon fiber in the spar caps is found to yield between 9 % and 13 % cost savings.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Consumer Applications of Quantum Computing: A Promising Approach for Secure Computation, Trusted Data Storage, and Efficient Applications

Demands from the commerce, finance, security, and logistics sectors drive the persistent growth of computing. As current research focuses on providing new computing capabilities using disruptive approaches, quantum computing represents a promising strategy that offers new capabilities in secure computation, trusted data storage, and efficient applications. Here, this article discusses the growing awareness that quantum computing can impact a broad variety of consumer concerns and applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Transportation Networks for E-Waste Reverse Logistics: A Multi-Modal Cost Allocation and Pricing Strategy

The exponential growth of electronic waste (e-waste) poses critical challenges for sustainable reverse logistics and transportation network optimization. This study develops a dual-channel transportation framework for e-waste logistics that integrates dynamic freight pricing, cost allocation mechanisms, and game-theoretic coordination. The model captures interactions between centralized hubs and distributed processing networks, accounting for freight rate elasticity, volume allocation, and capacity constraints. Using Stackelberg game theory and cost-sharing strategies, the framework optimizes transportation efficiency and profit distribution across logistics channels. Numerical simulations show that the dual-channel structure increases centralized hub profit by 226.8% compared to baseline single-channel operations, while boosting total transported volume by 1.2% and nearly doubling freight collector profit under cost-sharing. Scenario analyses across regional infrastructures reveal that network density, policy incentives, and logistics costs shape routing efficiency and profit allocation. These findings suggest that coordinated strategies combining dynamic pricing, targeted infrastructure investment, and strategic cost allocation are needed to design efficient, resilient, and regionally adaptable e-waste transportation systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗