Physical loss of long-period comets
Loss of long-period comets from the solar system through a variety of physical processes is investigated. It is shown that planetary collision, defined as a comet passing within the Roche radius of any planet, has a probability of 1.35 x 10 to the -7th per perihelion passage for a long-period comet on a randomly oriented orbit. Sublimation of all volatiles for a one-kilometer radius hydrate ice nucleus would require on the order of 600 to 27,600 perihelion passages, depending on the surface albedo and assuming a perihelion distance of one astronomical unit. Analysis of observational records indicates that for dynamically 'new' comets in the Oort-Schmidt sense there is about a 10% probability of the comet randomly disrupting on its first perihelion passage. This probability drops to 4% per perihelion passage for older long-period comets, and less than 1% for short-period comets. The consequences of these loss mechanisms when incorporated into Monte-Carlo studies of long-period comet evolution are also discussed.