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NASA NTRS1996

Application of Millisecond Pulsar Timing to the Long-Term Stability of Clock Ensembles

We review the application of millisecond pulsars to define a precise long-term standard and positional reference system in a nearly inertial reference frame. We quantify the current timing precision of the best millisecond pulsars and define the required precise time and time interval (PTTI) accuracy and stability to enable time transfer via pulsars. Pulsars may prove useful as independent standards to examine decade-long timing stability and provide an independent natural system within which to calibrate any new, perhaps vastly improved atomic time scale. Since pulsar stability appears to be related to the lifetime of the pulsar, the new millisecond pulsar J173+0747 is projected to have a 100-day accuracy equivalent to a single HP5071 cesium standard. Over the last five years, dozens of new millisecond pulsars have been discovered. A few of the new millisecond pulsars may have even better timing properties.

Foster, Roger S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Time scale algorithms for an inhomogeneous group of atomic clocks

Through the past 17 years, the time scale requirements at the National Research Council (NRC) have been met by the unsteered output of its primary laboratory cesium clocks, supplemented by hydrogen masers when short-term stability better than 2 x 10(exp -12)tau(sup -1/2) has been required. NRC now operates three primary laboratory cesium clocks, three hydrogen masers, and two commercial cesium clocks. NRC has been using ensemble averages for internal purposes for the past several years, and has a realtime algorithm operating on the outputs of its high-resolution (2 x 10(exp -13) s at 1 s) phase comparators. The slow frequency drift of the hydrogen masers has presented difficulties in incorporating their short-term stability into the ensemble average, while retaining the long-term stability of the laboratory cesium frequency standards. We report on this work on algorithms for an inhomogeneous ensemble of atomic clocks, and on our initial work on time scale algorithms that could incorporate frequency calibrations at NRC from the next generation of Zacharias fountain cesium frequency standards having frequency accuracies that might surpass 10(exp -15), or from single-trapped-ion frequency standards (Ba+, Sr+,...) with even higher potential accuracies. The requirements for redundancy in all the elements (including the algorithms) of an inhomogeneous ensemble that would give a robust real-time output of the algorithms are presented and discussed.

Jacques, C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An ensemble pulsar time

Millisecond pulsars are galactic objects that exhibit a very stable spinning period. Several tens of these celestial clocks have now been discovered, which opens the possibility that an average time scale may be deduced through a long-term stability algorithm. Such an ensemble average makes it possible to reduce the level of the instabilities originating from the pulsars or from other sources of noise, which are unknown but independent. The basis for such an algorithm is presented and applied to real pulsar data. It is shown that pulsar time could shortly become more stable than the present atomic time, for averaging times of a few years. Pulsar time can also be used as a flywheel to maintain the accuracy of atomic time in case of temporary failure of the primary standards, or to transfer the improved accuracy of future standards back to the present.

Petit, Gerard↗

NASA NTRS2001

Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model: Specific Features and Budget Analysis - Part 1

A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi-equilibrium states. Detailed comparisons between the various states are presented.

Shie, C.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Variability and Predictability of Precipitation over Southeast Asian

The large scale atmospheric moisture budget, including precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and evaporation is described over southeast Asian. ne results are from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system for the period March 1981 - February 1995. On average, in the late spring and early summer season, precipitation is largely balanced by the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over southeast Asian; evaporation is also an important contributor. The seasonal variability of precipitation is best related to variations in the moisture flux convergence. On the monthly time scales, both the precipitable water and precipitation anomalies are most closely related to moisture flux convergence anomalies and less closely related to evaporation anomalies. The impact of the low-level jet (LLJ) on the strong low-level moisture flux convergence will be discussed. An ensemble of GEOS-2 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulation are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of initial conditions. We also assess the variability and potential predictability from these experiments.

Chang, Yehui↗

NASA NTRS1994

Russian national time scale long-term stability

The Institute of Metrology for Time and Space NPO 'VNIIFTRI' generates the National Time Scale (NTS) of Russia -- one of the most stable time scales in the world. Its striking feature is that it is based on a free ensemble of H-masers only. During last two years the estimations of NTS longterm stability based only on H-maser intercomparison data gives a flicker floor of about (2 to 3) x 10(exp -15) for averaging times from 1 day to 1 month. Perhaps the most significant feature for a time laboratory is an extremely low possible frequency drift -- it is too difficult to estimate it reliably. The other estimations, free from possible inside the ensemble correlation phenomena, are available based on the time comparison of NTS relative to the stable enough time scale of outer laboratories. The data on NTS comparison relative to the time scale of secondary time and frequency standards at Golitzino and Irkutsk in Russia and relative to NIST, PTB and USNO using GLONASS and GPS time transfer links gives stability estimations which are close to that based on H-maser intercomparisons.

Alshina, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A numerical model study of long-term planetary wave predictability

A numerical model was developed to study planetary wave behavior over periods up to 4 months under the influences of stochastic and diffusive forcing by synoptic scale motions and of sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is suitable for Monte Carlo experiments which provide ensemble mean and variance predictions and permit the response to heating anomalies to be partly separated from random variability. The model incorporates the linear-balanced dynamical equations for wind at two tropospheric levels and temperature at one level. The model atmosphere is forced by semiempirical January heating linearly dependent on local air temperature. Topography and the lower boundary layer are represented by vertical motion and drag functions, respectively, of the lower level wind. The linear phase speeds of Rossby waves are modified to reflect the effect of the stratosphere.

Wobus, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Upper Limit of Weights in TAI Computation

The international reference time scale International Atomic Time (TAI) computed by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM) relies on a weighted average of data from a large number of atomic clocks. In it, the weight attributed to a given clock depends on its long-term stability. In this paper the TAI algorithm is used as the basis for a discussion of how to implement an upper limit of weight for clocks contributing to the ensemble time. This problem is approached through the comparison of two different techniques. In one case, a maximum relative weight is fixed: no individual clock can contribute more than a given fraction to the resulting time scale. The weight of each clock is then adjusted according to the qualities of the whole set of contributing elements. In the other case, a parameter characteristic of frequency stability is chosen: no individual clock can appear more stable than the stated limit. This is equivalent to choosing an absolute limit of weight and attributing this to to the most stable clocks independently of the other elements of the ensemble. The first technique is more robust than the second and automatically optimizes the stability of the resulting time scale, but leads to a more complicated computatio. The second technique has been used in the TAI algorithm since the very beginning. Careful analysis of tests on real clock data shows that improvement of the stability of the time scale requires revision from time to time of the fixed value chosen for the upper limit of absolute weight. In particular, we present results which confirm the decision of the CCDS Working Group on TAI to increase the absolute upper limit by a factor of 2.5. We also show that the use of an upper relative contribution further helps to improve the stability and may be a useful step towards better use of the massive ensemble of HP 507IA clocks now contributing to TAI.

Thomas, Claudine↗

NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1991

Long-term changes in the total ozone mapping spectrometer relative to world primary standard Dobson spectrometer 83

The stability of the calibration of the Nimbus 7 solar backscatter UV (SBUV) and total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instruments by comparing their ozone measurements with those made by a single, very stable Dobson instrument: the world primary standard Dobson spectrometer number 83. Measurements of ozone made with instrument 83 at Mauna Loa observatory in eight summers between 1979 and 1989 were compared with coincident TOMS ozone measurements. The comparison shows that relative to instrument 83, ozone measured by TOMS (and SBUV) was stable between 1979 and approximately 1983, had decreased by 3 percent by 1986, and had decreased by almost 7 percent by 1989. A similar time dependence is seen when data from an ensemble of 39 Dobson stations throughout the world is compared with TOMS over the period 1979-1987. The most likely reason for the relative drift is that the diffuser plate used by both SBUV and TOMS to measure solar flux has suffered an uncorrected wavelength-dependent degradation, with most of the degradation occurring after 1983. The recently released version 6 TOMS data, corrected using the internal 'pair justification' technique, show almost no drift relative to Dobson instrument 83. Accurate measurements of long-term global ozone change will require a coherent system incorporating both ground-based and satellite-based ozone measurements.

Mcpeters, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Appendix A: The Impact of the HP 5071A on International Atomic Time

The international clock ensemble, which contributes to the generation of International Atomic Time (TAI and UTC) has improved dramatically over the last few years. The main change has been the introduction of a significant number of HP 5071A clocks. Of the 313 clocks contributing to TAI/UTC during 1994, 94 of these were HP 5071As. The environmental insensitivity of the HP 5071A clocks is more than an order of magnitude better than that of previously contributing clocks. This environmental insensitivity translates to outstanding long-term stability - with a typical flicker floor of a few x10(sup -15). in addition, there are now several hydrogen masers with cavity tuning contributing to TAI/UTC. These not only have outstanding short-term stability, but comparatively low frequency drifts and excellent intermediate-type frequency stability. By analyzing data available from the international ensemble, we have obtained two important results. First the frequency stability obtainable with an optimum algorithm is about 10(sup -15) for both the intermediate and long-term regions. It could be as good in the short-term (if time transfer measurement instabilities were reduced sufficiently. Second, with cooperation, this performance can be made available on an international basis in near real time. The recent enhancements in the contributing clocks are already providing a significant improvement in the accuracy with which UTC is made available to the world from several of the national timing centers, such as the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) and the US Naval Observatory (USNO).

Allan, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

In-flight calibration of solar irradiance measurements by direct comparison with stellar observations

The Solstice instrument aboard the upper atmosphere research satellite (UARS) is designed to correct the deficiencies of both long-term instrument drift and of intercomparison of solar data sets taken at different times by different instruments. The Solstice will make repeated measurements, spaced throughout the mission, of a number of bright early-type stars. In addition, it will determine the ratio of the solar flux to the average flux from an ensemble of stars. This ratio will be monitored throughout the UARS mission and archived.

Rottman, Gary J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Persistence and predictability in a perfect model

A realistic two-level GCM is used to examine the relationship between predictability and persistence. Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from perturbed initial conditions, and persistence is defined in terms of the autocorrelation function based on a single long-term model integration. The average skill of the dynamical forecasts is compared with the skill of simple persistence-based statistical forecasts. For initial errors comparable in magnitude to present-day analysis errors, the statistical forecast loses all skill after about one week, reflecting the lifetime of the lowest frequency fluctuations in the model. Large ensemble mean dynamical forecasts would be expected to remain skillful for about 3 wk. The disparity between the skill of the statistical and dynamical forecasts is greater for the higher frequency modes, which have little memory beyond 1 d, yet remain predictable for about 2 wk. The results are analyzed in terms of two characteristic time scales.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

NASA NTRS1973

NASA hydrogen maser accuracy and stability in relation to world standards

Frequency comparisons were made among five NASA hydrogen masers in 1969 and again in 1972 to a precision of one part in 10 to the 13th power. Frequency comparisons were also made between these masers and the cesium-beam ensembles of several international standards laboratories. The hydrogen maser frequency stabilities as related to IAT were comparable to the frequency stabilities of individual time scales with respect to IAT. The relative frequency variations among the NASA masers, measured after the three-year interval, were 2 + or - 2 parts in 10 to the 13th power. Thus time scales based on hydrogen masers would have excellent long-term stability and uniformity.

Peters, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Prediction with the GEOS GCM

Suarez, Max↗

NASA NTRS1992

Long-term evolution of 1991 DA: A dynamically evolved extinct Halley-type comet

The long-term dynamical evolution of 21 variational orbits for the intermediate-period asteroid 1991 DA was followed for up to +/-10(exp 5) years from the present. 1991 DA is close to the 2:7 resonance with Jupiter; it has avoided close encounters, within 1 AU, with this planet for at least the past 30,000 years, even at the node crossing. The future evolution typically shows no close encounters with Jupiter within at least 50,000 years. This corresponds to the mean time between node crossings with either Jupiter or Saturn. Close encounters with Saturn and Jupiter lead to a chaotic evolution for the whole ensemble, while secular perturbations cause large-amplitude swings in eccentricity and inclination (the latter covering the range 15 deg approximately less than i approximately less than 85 deg) which correlate with deep excursions of the perihelion distance to values much less than 1 AU. These variations are similar to those found in P/Machholz and a variety of other high-inclination orbits, e.g., P/Hartley-IRAS. We emphasize the connection between the orbital evolution of 1991 DA and that of Halley-type comets. If 1991 DA was once a comet, it is not surprising that it is now extinct.

Hahn, Gerhard↗