Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “MAP estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation

Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 gravitational lensing and SDSS BOSS cross-correlation measurement and constraints on gravity with the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic

We derive new constraints on the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic as a test of gravity, combining the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing map estimated from Data Release 6 (DR6) of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope with Sloan Digital Sky Survey III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS BOSS) CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We develop an analysis pipeline to measure the cross-correlation between CMB lensing maps and galaxy data, following a blinding policy and testing the approach through null and consistency checks. By testing the equivalence of the spatial and temporal gravitational potentials, the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic can distinguish Λ⁢ CDM from alternative models of gravity. We find 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.555) = 0.3⁢1$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$ for Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and CMASS data at 68.28% confidence level, and 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.4⁢9$^{+0.14}_{−0.11}$ for the ACT and LOWZ. Systematic errors are estimated to be 3% and 4%, respectively. Including CMB lensing information from Planck PR4 results in 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.555) = 0.3⁢4$^{+0.05}_{−0.05}$ with CMASS and 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.4⁢3$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$ with LOWZ. These are consistent with predictions for the Λ⁢ CDM model that best fits the Planck CMB anisotropy and SDSS BOSS baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), where 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺⁡}$(𝑧 eff =0.555) =0.401 ± 0.005 for CMB lensing combined with CMASS and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 combined with LOWZ. We also find 𝐸 𝐺 to be scale independent, with probability to exceed >5%, as predicted by general relativity. The methods developed in this work are also applicable to improved future analyses with upcoming spectroscopic galaxy samples and CMB lensing measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

A Monte Carlo Laplace Transform Estimator for Radiation Transport

This work formulates and implements a Laplace transform estimator in a simple Monte Carlo radiation transport code. The estimator maps flux-based quantities of interest, like reaction rates, from a desired phase-space dimension to the complex Laplace domain. This on-the-fly Monte Carlo integration technique enables the spectral analysis of arbitrary nuclear systems via the Laplace transform. A simple code tests the estimator in neutron slowing-down problems across various infinite media, and the results compare well with Ganapol’s uninverted analytical solution of the neutron slowing-down equation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Swept-Lookback Deflectometry for High Performance Concentrating Solar Power Optical Metrology

This report describes an initial investigation into a proposed solution to the important problem of performing a detailed evaluation of heliostat optical performance, in situ in a heliostat field. Our approach is to place digital cameras in a position near the receiver where they look back toward the heliostat mirrors. The pixels of each camera sensor identify a set of small cells on the mirror surface, each corresponding to a “mixel.” By either passing reflected sunbeam over the camera or passing the camera through the reflected sunbeam, the cameras intercept sunlight reflected from each mixel. We then analyze the recorded video data to determine times when each mixel transitions from dark to light, and then back to dark. We then use these transitions to construct vectors from the camera to the mixel, and then from the mixel to the edge of the Sun at that moment. We then compute the surface normal at the mixel, which bisects the angle between these vectors. Performing this analysis for all mixels in the mirror yields a high-resolution map of slope across the mirror surface. We have implemented most of this process, successfully collecting data for an example heliostat facet and computing a preliminary estimated slope map. However, more work remains to complete this calculation, since certain factors and transformations are not yet included. Our observations so far support our hypothesis that such a system is possible, but we have not yet completed our quantitative evaluation of the concept.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns

An iterative CMB lensing estimator minimizing instrumental noise bias

Noise maps from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments are generally statistically anisotropic, due to scanning strategies, atmospheric conditions, or instrumental effects. Any mismodeling of this complex noise can bias the reconstruction of the lensing potential and the measurement of the lensing power spectrum from the observed CMB maps. We introduce a new CMB lensing estimator based on the maximum (MAP) reconstruction that is minimally sensitive to these instrumental noise biases. By modifying the likelihood to rely exclusively on correlations between CMB map splits with independent noise realizations, we minimize autocorrelations that contribute to biases. In the regime of many independent splits, this maximum closely approximates the optimal MAP reconstruction of the lensing potential. In simulations, we demonstrate that this method is able to determine lensing observables that are immune to any noise mismodeling with a negligible cost in signal-to-noise ratio. Our estimator enables unbiased and nearly optimal lensing reconstruction for next-generation CMB surveys.

Legrand, Louis [University of Cambridge (United Ki

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Simons Observatory: validation of reconstructed power spectra from simulated filtered maps for the small aperture telescope survey

We present a transfer function-based method to estimate angular power spectra from filtered maps for cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys. This is especially relevant for experiments targeting the faint primordial gravitational wave signatures in CMB polarisation at large scales, such as the Simons Observatory (SO) small aperture telescopes. While timestreams can be filtered to mitigate the contamination from low-frequency noise, usual methods that calculate the mode coupling at individual multipoles can be challenging for experiments covering large sky areas or reaching few-arcminute resolution. The method we present here, although approximate, is more practical and faster for larger data volumes. We validate it through the use of simulated observations approximating the first year of SO data, going from half-wave plate-modulated timestreams to maps, and using simulations to estimate the mixing of polarisation modes induced by an example of time-domain filtering. We show its performance through an example null test and with an end-to-end pipeline that performs inference on cosmological parameters, including the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. The performance demonstration uses simulated observations at multiple frequency bands. We find that the method can recover unbiased parameters for our simulated noise levels.

CMBR experiments

Chromosome-level genome assemblies and genetic maps reveal heterochiasmy and macrosynteny in endangered Atlantic Acropora

Abstract Background Over their evolutionary history, corals have adapted to sea level rise and increasing ocean temperatures, however, it is unclear how quickly they may respond to rapid change. Genome structure and genetic diversity contained within may highlight their adaptive potential. Results We present chromosome-scale genome assemblies and linkage maps of the critically endangered Atlantic acroporids,Acropora palmataandA. cervicornis. Both assemblies and linkage maps were resolved into 14 chromosomes with their gene content and colinearity. Repeats and chromosome arrangements were largely preserved between the species. The family Acroporidae and the genusAcroporaexhibited many phylogenetically significant gene family expansions. Macrosynteny decreased with phylogenetic distance. Nevertheless, scleractinians shared six of the 21 cnidarian ancestral linkage groups as well as numerous fission and fusion events compared to other distantly related cnidarians. Genetic linkage maps were constructed from oneA. palmatafamily and 16A. cervicornisfamilies using a genotyping array. The consensus maps span 1,013.42 cM and 927.36 cM forA. palmataandA. cervicornis, respectively. Both species exhibited high genome-wide recombination rates (3.04 to 3.53 cM/Mb) and pronounced sex-based differences, known as heterochiasmy, with 2 to 2.5X higher recombination rates estimated in the female maps. Conclusions Together, the chromosome-scale assemblies and genetic maps we present here are the first detailed look at the genomic landscapes of the critically endangered Atlantic acroporids. These data sets revealed that adaptive capacity of Atlantic acroporids is not limited by their recombination rates. The sister species maintain macrosynteny with few genes with high sequence divergence that may act as reproductive barriers between them. In the AtlanticAcropora, hybridization between the two sister species yields an F1 hybrid with limited fertility despite the high levels of macrosynteny and gene colinearity of their genomes. Together, these resources now enable genome-wide association studies and discovery of quantitative trait loci, two tools that can aid in the conservation of these species.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology

Polynomial-time preparation of low-temperature Gibbs states for two-dimensional toric code

In this work, we propose a polynomial-time algorithm for preparing the Gibbs state of the two-dimensional toric code Hamiltonian at any temperature, starting from any initial state, significantly improving upon prior estimates that suggested exponential scaling with inverse temperature. We prove that fast mixing at low temperature for the two-dimensional toric code can be achieved by augmenting local jump operators with simple global jump operators, which enable efficient transitions between logical sectors. To establish tight lower bounds on the spectral gap, we introduce a new reduction method that eventually maps the problem to estimating the spectral gap of a perturbed graph Laplacian on a stair graph. Our proof also shows that the Lindblad dynamics with a digitally implemented low-temperature local Davies generator is able to efficiently drive the quantum state toward the ground state manifold.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

NLR HPC Kestrel Jobs Data

Overview: Anonymized job-level records from the Kestrel HPC system at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). Each record represents a Slurm batch job with scheduling metadata, resource requests, utilization, energy estimates, and efficiency metrics. Sensitive fields (user, account, job name, submit line, working directory, submit script, and job type) are replaced with 7-character cryptographic hashes. System & Timeframe: Kestrel is located at the NLR campus. Standard compute nodes have 104 cores and 256 GB RAM; bigmem nodes have 2,000 GB. GPU nodes (gpu-h100 partition) use NVIDIA H100 GPUs. Data covers jobs submitted August 2023 through December 2025. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, EERE. Files: esif.hpc.kestrel.job-anon.zip — Anonymized job records (Hive-partitioned Parquet) datacard.md — Full dataset documentation ~11 million rows, 50 variables. Readable with PyArrow, pandas, DuckDB, Apache Spark, or any Parquet-compatible tool. Data Collection: Jobs collected via sacct with timezone-aware export (SLURM_TIME_FORMAT="%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%S%z"), loaded into PostgreSQL. Calculated columns updated via database triggers and batch functions. All timestamps use timestamptz and correctly handle DST transitions. Preprocessing: Anonymization of name, user, account, submit_line, work_dir, submit_script, and job_type via 7-char hex hashes Derived columns: queue_wait, cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff, energy estimates Simplified job state mapping (e.g., "CANCELLED by 132357" → "CANCELLED") Boolean flags: python_job, reframe_job Temporal decomposition: year, month, day, day_of_week, hour, minute from submit_time Shared node tracking: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Key Variables: Scheduling: job_id, partition, state_simple, submit_time, start_time, end_time, queue_wait Resources: nodes_req/used, processors_req/used, memory_req, wallclock_req/used, gpus_requested Efficiency: cpu_eff, max/min/avg_mem_eff Energy: cpu_energy_tdp_estimated_max/used_watt_hours, consumed_energy_raw_joules, consumed_energy_raw_watt_hours Sharing: shared_job_count, nodes_shared, jobs_shared Partitions: short, standard, debug, gpu-h100 Job States: CANCELLED, COMPLETED, FAILED, PENDING, RUNNING QoS Levels: normal, high Important Notes: Timestamps include timezone offsets; DST transitions are handled correctly, though adding intervals across DST boundaries requires offset adjustment shared_job_count reflects physical node co-residency, not use of the shared partition Job step records and raw Slurm JSONB fields are excluded Do not attempt to re-identify individuals from hashed fields

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Constraints on Local Primordial Non-Gaussianity with 3D Velocity Reconstruction from the Kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

The cosmic velocity field is an unbiased probe of the total matter distribution but is challenging to measure directly at intermediate and high redshifts. The large-scale velocity field imprints a signal in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) through the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect. We perform the first 3D reconstruction of the large-scale velocity field from the kSZ effect by applying a quadratic estimator to CMB temperature maps and the 3D positions of galaxies. We do so by combining CMB data from the fifth data release of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (in combination with Planck) and a spectroscopic galaxy sample from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We then measure the galaxy-velocity cross-power spectrum and detect the presence of the kSZ signal at a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.2⁢𝜎. Using this galaxy-velocity cross-correlation alone, we constrain the amplitude of local primordial non-Gaussianity finding 𝑓 NL =−9⁢0$^{+210}_{−350}$. In conclusion, this pathfinder measurement sets the stage for joint galaxy-CMB kSZ constraints to significantly enhance the 𝑓 NL information obtained from galaxy surveys through sample variance cancellation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters

The DECADE cosmic shear project II: photometric redshift calibration of the source galaxy sample

We present the photometric redshift characterization and calibration for the Dark Energy Camera All Data Everywhere (DECADE) weak lensing dataset: a catalog of 107 million galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) in the northern Galactic cap. The redshifts are estimated from a combination of wide-field photometry, deep-field photometry with associated redshift estimates, and a transfer function between the wide field and deep field that is estimated using a source injection catalog. We construct four tomographic bins for the galaxy catalog, and estimate the redshift distribution, $n(z)$, within each one using the Self-organizing Map Photo-Z (SOMPZ) methodology. Our estimates include the contributions from sample variance, zeropoint calibration uncertainties, and redshift biases, as quantified for the deep-field dataset. The total uncertainties on the mean redshifts are $σ_{\langle}$$_z$$_{\rangle} ≈ 0.01$. The SOMPZ estimates are then compared to those from the clustering redshift method, obtained by cross-correlating our source galaxies with galaxies in spectroscopic surveys, and are shown to be consistent with each other.

Anbajagane, D. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United State

Measuring σ 8 using DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys Emission-Line galaxies and Planck CMB lensing, and the impact of dust on parameter inference

Measuring the growth of structure is a powerful probe for studying the dark sector, especially in light of the σ 8 tension between primary CMB anisotropy and low-redshift surveys. This paper provides a new measurement of the amplitude of the matter power spectrum, σ 8 , using galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-CMB lensing power spectra of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys Emission-Line Galaxies and the Planck 2018 CMB lensing map. We create an ELG catalog composed of 24 million galaxies and with a purity of 85%, covering a redshift range 0 < z < 3, with z mean = 1.09. We implement several novel systematic corrections, such as jointly modeling the contribution of imaging systematics and photometric redshift uncertainties to the covariance matrix. We also study the impacts of various dust maps on cosmological parameter inference. We measure the cross-power spectra over f sky = 0.25 with a signal-to-background ratio of up to 30σ. We find that the choice of dust maps to account for imaging systematics in estimating the ELG overdensity field has a significant impact on the final estimated values of σ 8 and Ω M , with far-infrared emission-based dust maps preferring σ 8 to be as low as 0.702 ± 0.030, and stellar-reddening-based dust maps preferring as high as 0.719 ± 0.030. The highest preferred value is at ∼ 3 σ tension with the Planck primary anisotropy results. These findings indicate a need for tomographic analyses at high redshifts and joint modeling of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES