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An overview of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS

Mathematical and statistical analysis components of RICIS (Research Institute for Computing and Information Systems) can be used in the following problem areas: (1) quantification and measurement of software reliability; (2) assessment of changes in software reliability over time (reliability growth); (3) analysis of software-failure data; and (4) decision logic for whether to continue or stop testing software. Other areas of interest to NASA/JSC where mathematical and statistical analysis can be successfully employed include: math modeling of physical systems, simulation, statistical data reduction, evaluation methods, optimization, algorithm development, and mathematical methods in signal processing.

Hallum, Cecil R.

Mathematical and statistical analysis

The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

Houston, A. Glen

Characterization of nonGaussian atmospheric turbulence for prediction of aircraft response statistics

Mathematical expressions were derived for the exceedance rates and probability density functions of aircraft response variables using a turbulence model that consists of a low frequency component plus a variance modulated Gaussian turbulence component. The functional form of experimentally observed concave exceedance curves was predicted theoretically, the strength of the concave contribution being governed by the coefficient of variation of the time fluctuating variance of the turbulence. Differences in the functional forms of response exceedance curves and probability densities also were shown to depend primarily on this same coefficient of variation. Criteria were established for the validity of the local stationary assumption that is required in the derivations of the exceedance curves and probability density functions. These criteria are shown to depend on the relative time scale of the fluctuations in the variance, the fluctuations in the turbulence itself, and on the nominal duration of the relevant aircraft impulse response function. Metrics that can be generated from turbulence recordings for testing the validity of the local stationary assumption were developed.

Mark, W. D.

Establishment of a center of excellence for applied mathematical and statistical research

The state of the art was assessed with regards to efforts in support of the crop production estimation problem and alternative generic proportion estimation techniques were investigated. Topics covered include modeling the greeness profile (Badhwarmos model), parameter estimation using mixture models such as CLASSY, and minimum distance estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Approaches to the problem of obtaining proportion estimates when the underlying distributions are asymmetric are examined including the properties of Weibull distribution.

Woodward, W. A.

Center of Excellence for Applied Mathematical and Statistical Research in support of development of multicrop production monitoring capability

Efforts in support of the development of multicrop production monitoring capability are reported. In particular, segment level proportion estimation techniques based upon a mixture model were investigated. Efforts have dealt primarily with evaluation of current techniques and development of alternative ones. A comparison of techniques is provided on both simulated and LANDSAT data along with an analysis of the quality of profile variables obtained from LANDSAT data.

Woodward, W. A.

Statistical models of lunar rocks and regolith

The mathematical, statistical, and computational approaches used in the investigation of the interrelationship of lunar fragmental material, regolith, lunar rocks, and lunar craters are described. The first two phases of the work explored the sensitivity of the production model of fragmental material to mathematical assumptions, and then completed earlier studies on the survival of lunar surface rocks with respect to competing processes. The third phase combined earlier work into a detailed statistical analysis and probabilistic model of regolith formation by lithologically distinct layers, interpreted as modified crater ejecta blankets. The fourth phase of the work dealt with problems encountered in combining the results of the entire project into a comprehensive, multipurpose computer simulation model for the craters and regolith. Highlights of each phase of research are given.

Marcus, A. H.

Investigation of vibration characteristics of electric motors

The vibration characteristics of electric motors were analyzed using mathematical statistics methods. The equipment used and the method of conducting the test are described. Curves are developed to show the visualization of the electric motor vibrations in the vertical direction. Additional curves are included to show the amplitude-phase frequency characteristic of dynamic rotor-housing vibrations at the first lug and the same data for the second lug of the electric motor. Mathematical models were created to show the transmission function of the dynamic rotor housing system.

Bakshis, A. K.

Program for Analysis and Enhancement of Images

Land Analysis System (LAS) is collection of image-analysis computer programs designed to manipulate and analyze multispectral image data. Provides user with functions ingesting various sensor data, radiometric and geometric corrections, image registration, training site selection, supervised and unsupervised classification, Fourier domain filtering, and image enhancement. Sufficiently modular and includes extensive library of subroutines to permit inclusion of new algorithmic programs. Commercial package International Mathematical & Statistical Library (IMSL) required for full implementation of LAS. Written in VAX FORTRAN 77, C, and Macro assembler for DEC VAX operating under VMS 4.0.

Lu, Yun-Chi

TOAD Editor

Transferable Output ASCII Data (TOAD) computer program (LAR-13755), implements format designed to facilitate transfer of data across communication networks and dissimilar host computer systems. Any data file conforming to TOAD format standard called TOAD file. TOAD Editor is interactive software tool for manipulating contents of TOAD files. Commonly used to extract filtered subsets of data for visualization of results of computation. Also offers such user-oriented features as on-line help, clear English error messages, startup file, macroinstructions defined by user, command history, user variables, UNDO features, and full complement of mathematical statistical, and conversion functions. Companion program, TOAD Gateway (LAR-14484), converts data files from variety of other file formats to that of TOAD. TOAD Editor written in FORTRAN 77.

Bingle, Bradford D.

The analysis of star catalogs. 1: An intercomparison among the FK3, the FK4, and the FK5

Progress in the construction of the fundamental catalogs allows one to ask the following questions: 'Now that we have the FK5 with which to measure by, how good was the FK4? The FK3? How realistic were the error estimates they gave for their equatorial coordinates and their proper motions? Have their residual systematic differences continued to decrease in amplitude?' and so forth. Similar questions could be asked of the GC and the N30, and a companion paper will similarly analyze them. Finally, the identical series of questions could be asked of the AGK2, AGK3, AGK3U sequence. In this paper we develop a general method to objectively investigate, post facto, the true quality of star catalog error estimates. We present a complete mathematical formulation of the questions above and delineate the calculations needed to address them. Our initial numerical applications are restricted to a straightforward examination of the mean errors of the coordinates and proper motions in the FK3 (using the FK4 and the FK5 for comparison) and in the FK4 (using the FK5 for comparison). However, we can simply and consistently interpret the results of these computations -- for the FK catalogs fail to follow the predictions of mathematical statistics -- only if the FK3 and the FK4 contain higher angular frequency systematic errors. These errors, at the mean epochs of place of the older catalogs, are larger than the random errors in the FK5 system. We expect that our new ability to discern these features means that we can also prevent them during compilation. Finally, note that the concepts behind our procedures are completely general and can be applied to any set of compiled data -- astrometric, photometric, geodetic, and so forth.

Bucciarelli, B.

The analysis of star catalogs. 2: An intercomparison among the GC, the N30, and the FK5(B1950.0/FK4)

We use the general method of compiled data set analysis developed in our first paper (Bucciarelli et. al. 1994) and extend our analysis of fundamental star catalogs to include the two American ones. The problems found in the FK3/FK4/FK5 sequence are not present in either the GC or the N30. This lends support to the hypothesis advanced in our previous paper that the FK3, and to a lesser extent the FK4 declination system, are distorted by high angular frequency systematics. On the other hand, both the GC and N30 equatorial coordinate and proper motion distributions nicely follow the predictions of mathematical statistics. As with the FK3/FK4/FK5 analysis, the new results are as seen by the FK5 (on the FK4/B1950.0 system).

Taff, L. G.

Fade Dynamics and Its Evolution: The Other Part of the Acts Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required as similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in [Manning, 1990]. In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic of time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian [Denisenko] and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following [Denisenko] in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.

Fade Dynamics and its Evolution: The Other Part of the ACTS Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required a similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in (Manning). In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic or time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of a random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian (Denisenko) and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following (Denisenko) in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Davis, Anthony B.

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1: Model Verification and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Model Verification and Validation (V&V) document accompanies the delivery of the latest ORDEM 3.1 model (Vavrin & Manis, 2019) and provides a detailed description of the V&V activities used to verify that the model was built correctly and validate the model against independent, real world sources of data obtained from sampling the orbital debris environment. This ORDEM 3.1 Model V&V document, along with the related ORDEM 3.1 Model Process document – which covers details of the mathematical, statistical, and physical basis of the model – are intended to inform credibility assessments, risk analyses, uncertainty characterizations, and other applications derived from use of the model by the ORDEM 3.1 user community.

Timothy Kennedy