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At least 19 records

Monsoonal MCS Initiation, Rainfall, and Diurnal Gravity Waves over the Bay of Bengal: Observation and a Linear Model

Abstract Previous observational studies have indicated that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute the majority of precipitation over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the summer monsoon season, yet their initiation and propagation remain incompletely understood. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive study using a combination of 20-yr satellite observations, MCS tracking, reanalysis data, and a theoretical linear model. Satellite observations reveal clear diurnal propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall from the west coast of the BoB toward the central BoB, with the MCS rainfall propagating slightly slower than the MCS initiation frequency. Global reanalysis data indicate a strong association between the offshore-propagating MCS initiation frequency/rainfall and diurnal low-level wind perturbations, implying the potential role of gravity waves. To verify the hypothesis, we developed a 2D linear model that can be driven by realistic meteorological fields from reanalysis. The linear model realistically reproduces the characteristics of offshore-propagating diurnal wind perturbations. The wind perturbations, as well as the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation frequency and rainfall, are associated with diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastal regions, which in turn are caused by the diurnal land–sea thermal contrast. The ambient wind speed and vertical wind shear play crucial roles in modulating the timing, propagation, and amplitude of diurnal gravity waves. Using the linear model and satellite observations, we further show that the stronger monsoonal flows lead to faster offshore propagation of diurnal gravity waves, which subsequently control the offshore propagation signals of MCS initiation and rainfall. Significance Statement Rainfall over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is primarily contributed by large and organized rainfall systems in the summer monsoon season. During this season, these systems are commonly observed over the east coast of India around midnight, the western BoB in the morning, and the central BoB in the afternoon. This eastward rainfall propagation is confirmed by observations, reanalysis data, and a theoretical model to have a strong association with atmospheric diurnal gravity waves. These waves are caused by land–sea thermal contrast and can trigger rainfall systems over the offshore regions. We also found that the diurnal gravity waves, as well as their triggered rainfall systems, can be greatly modulated by the large-scale monsoonal flows. All the above findings improve our understanding of diurnal rainfall cycle over the BoB and may contribute to the future improvement of rainfall forecast over the region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Scaling of MCS, Non‐MCS, and Total Extreme Precipitation With Temperature Over the Central United States

Abstract While extreme precipitation is expected to increase in a warming climate, its scaling with temperature at weather timescales often produces puzzling results. Here, we focus on the summer months over the central U.S. to investigate the scaling of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) with local temperature and determine the contribution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to the EPI scaling. Using an observational data set that differentiates precipitation associated with MCS and non‐MCS storms, we find that MCS storms contribute to 70% of EPI samples at temperatures lower than 298 K where EPI increases with temperature. However, at temperatures of 298–305 K, MCSs' contribution to EPI decreases as the predominant storm type shifts from MCS to non‐MCS storms, causing EPI to decrease with temperature due to the weaker rainfall intensity associated with non‐MCS storms compared with MCS storms. Our findings underscore the important role of different storm types in affecting the EPI scaling relationships.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Radar observations of precipitation growth and evolution within the anvil region of a MCS

Doppler radar observations of the growth and evolution of precipitation (reflectivity factor) and associated mesoscale motions within the anvil region of an evolving mesoscale convective system (MCS) are presented. This MCS was observed during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment conducted over northern Alabama and central Tennessee during June and July, 1986. During the latter stages of the approximate eight-hour lifetime of this MCS, an extensive region of stratiform precipitation was observed. Attention is given to the initial appearance and subsequent evolution of precipitation within the stratiform region of the MCS, and the relation to the mesoscale flows that are seen within the system.

Knupp, Kevin R.

The Distribution, Composition, and Particle Properties of Mars Mesospheric Aerosols: an Analysis of CRISM Visible/near-IR Limb Spectra with Context from Near-Coincident MCS and MARCI Observations

The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) obtains pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of vertical profiles for visible/near-IR spectra (λ=0.4–4.0 μm), which are ideally suited to identifying the composition and particle sizes of Mars ice and dust aerosols over 50–100 km altitudes in the Mars mesosphere. Within the coverage limitations of the CRISM limb data set, a distinct compositional dichotomy is found in Mars mesospheric ice aerosols. CO2 ice clouds appear during the aphelion period of Mars orbit (Solar Longitudes, Ls∼0–160°) at low latitudes (∼20S–10N) over specific longitude regions (Meridiani, Valles Marineris) and at typical altitudes of 55–75 km. Apart from faint water ice hazes below 55 km, mesospheric H2O ice clouds are primarily restricted to the perihelion orbital range (Ls∼160 – 350°) at northern and southern mid-to-low latitudes with less apparent longitudinal dependences. Mars mesospheric CO2 clouds are presented in CRISM spectra with a surprisingly large range of particle sizes (cross section weighted radii, Reff=0.3 to 2.2 μm). The smaller particle sizes (Reff ≤1 μm) appear concentrated near the spatial (latitude and altitude) boundaries of their global occurrences. CRISM spectra of mesospheric CO2 clouds also show evidence of iridescence, indicating very narrow particle size distributions (effective variance, Veff∼0.03) and so very abrupt CO2 cloud nucleation. Furthermore, these clouds are sometimes accompanied by altitude coincident peaks in 1.27 μm O2 dayglow, which indicates very dry, cold regions of formation. Mesospheric water ice clouds generally exhibit small particle sizes (Reff=0.1–0.3 μm), although larger particle sizes (Reff=0.4–0.7 μm) appear infrequently. On average, water ice cloud particle sizes decrease with altitude over 50–80 km in the perihelion mesosphere. Water ice mass appears similar in clouds over a large range of observed cloud particle sizes, with particle number densities increasing to ∼10 cm−3 for Reff=0.2 μm. Near coincident Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) temperature and aerosol profile measurements for a subset of CRISM mesospheric aerosol measurements indicate near saturation (H2O and CO2) conditions for ice clouds and distinct mesospheric temperature increases associated with mesospheric dust loading. Dayside (3 pm) mesospheric CO2 clouds with larger particle sizes (Reff ≥0.5 μm) scatter surface infrared emission in MCS limb infrared radiances, as well as solar irradiance in the MCS solar band channel. Scattering of surface infrared emission is most strikingly presented in nighttime (3 am) MCS observations at 55–60 km altitudes, indicating extensive mesospheric nighttime CO2 clouds with considerably larger particle sizes (Reff∼7 μm). Mesospheric CO2 ice clouds present cirrus-like waveforms over extensive latitude and longitude regions (10°×10°), as revealed in coincident Mars Color Imager (MARCI) nadir imaging. Solar tides, gravity waves, and the large orbital variation of the extended thermal structure of the Mars atmosphere influence all of these behaviors. Mesospheric dust aerosols appear infrequently over the non-global (planet encircling) dust storm era of the CRISM limb data set (2009–2016), and exhibit smaller particle sizes (Reff=0.2–0.7 μm) relative to dust in the lower atmosphere. One isolated case of an aphelion (Ls=96°) mesospheric dust layer with large dust particle sizes (Reff ∼2 μm) over Syria Planum may reflect high altitude, non-local transport of dust over elevated regions.

Clancy, Todd R.

The distribution, composition, and particle properties of Mars mesospheric aerosols: An analysis of CRISM visible/near-IR limb spectra with context from near-coincident MCS and MARCI observations

The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapper (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) obtains pole-to-pole observations (i.e., full MRO orbits) of vertical profiles for visible/near-IR spectra (λ= 0.4–4.0 μm), which are ideally suited to identifying the composition and particle sizes of Mars ice and dust aerosols over 50–100 km altitudes in the Mars mesosphere. Within the coverage limitations of the CRISM limb data set, a distinct compositional dichotomy is found in Mars mesospheric ice aerosols. CO2 ice clouds appear during the aphelion period of Mars orbit (Solar Longitudes, L(s )∼ 0–160°) at low latitudes (∼20S–10N) over specific longitude regions (Meridiani, Valles Marineris) and at typical altitudes of 55–75 km. Apart from faint water ice hazes below 55 km, mesospheric H2O ice clouds are primarily restricted to the perihelion orbital range (L(s)∼160 – 350°) at northern and southern mid-to-low latitudes with less apparent longitudinal dependences. Mars mesospheric CO2 clouds are presented in CRISM spectra with a surprisingly large range of particle sizes (cross section weighted radii, R(eff) = 0.3 to 2.2 μm). The smaller particle sizes (R(eff) ≤1 μm) appear concentrated near the spatial (latitude and altitude) boundaries of their global occurrences. CRISM spectra of mesospheric CO2 clouds also show evidence of iridescence, indicating very narrow particle size distributions (effective variance, V(eff) ∼ 0.03) and so very abrupt CO2 cloud nucleation. Furthermore, these clouds are sometimes accompanied by altitude coincident peaks in 1.27 μm O2 dayglow, which indicates very dry, cold regions of formation. Mesospheric water ice clouds generally exhibit small particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.1–0.3 μm), although larger particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.4–0.7 μm) appear infrequently. On average, water ice cloud particle sizes decrease with altitude over 50–80 km in the perihelion mesosphere. Water ice mass appears similar in clouds over a large range of observed cloud particle sizes, with particle number densities increasing to ∼10 per cu. cm for R(eff) = 0.2 μm. Near coincident Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) temperature and aerosol profile measurements for a subset of CRISM mesospheric aerosol measurements indicate near saturation (H2O and CO2) conditions for ice clouds and distinct mesospheric temperature increases associated with mesospheric dust loading. Dayside (3 pm) mesospheric CO2 clouds with larger particle sizes (R(eff) ≥0.5 μm) scatter surface infrared emission in MCS limb infrared radiances, as well as solar irradiance in the MCS solar band channel. Scattering of surface infrared emission is most strikingly presented in nighttime (3 am) MCS observations at 55–60 km altitudes, indicating extensive mesospheric nighttime CO2 clouds with considerably larger particle sizes (R(eff)∼7 μm). Mesospheric CO2 ice clouds present cirrus-like waveforms over extensive latitude and longitude regions (10°×10°), as revealed in coincident Mars Color Imager (MARCI) nadir imaging. Solar tides, gravity waves, and the large orbital variation of the extended thermal structure of the Mars atmosphere influence all of these behaviors. Mesospheric dust aerosols appear infrequently over the non-global (planet encircling) dust storm era of the CRISM limb data set (2009–2016), and exhibit smaller particle sizes (R(eff) = 0.2–0.7 μm) relative to dust in the lower atmosphere. One isolated case of an aphelion (L(s) = 96°) mesospheric dust layer with large dust particle sizes (R(eff) ∼2 μm) over Syria Planum may reflect high altitude, non-local transport of dust over elevated regions.

R. Todd Clancy

Relating the Hadamard Variance to MCS Kalman Filter Clock Estimation

The Global Positioning System (GPS) Master Control Station (MCS) currently makes significant use of the Allan Variance. This two-sample variance equation has proven excellent as a handy, understandable tool, both for time domain analysis of GPS cesium frequency standards, and for fine tuning the MCS's state estimation of these atomic clocks. The Allan Variance does not explicitly converge for the nose types of alpha less than or equal to minus 3 and can be greatly affected by frequency drift. Because GPS rubidium frequency standards exhibit non-trivial aging and aging noise characteristics, the basic Allan Variance analysis must be augmented in order to (a) compensate for a dynamic frequency drift, and (b) characterize two additional noise types, specifically alpha = minus 3, and alpha = minus 4. As the GPS program progresses, we will utilize a larger percentage of rubidium frequency standards than ever before. Hence, GPS rubidium clock characterization will require more attention than ever before. The three sample variance, commonly referred to as a renormalized Hadamard Variance, is unaffected by linear frequency drift, converges for alpha is greater than minus 5, and thus has utility for modeling noise in GPS rubidium frequency standards. This paper demonstrates the potential of Hadamard Variance analysis in GPS operations, and presents an equation that relates the Hadamard Variance to the MCS's Kalman filter process noises.

Hutsell, Steven T.

Examining Clustered MCSs and Their Precipitation Significance Over Global Land MCS Hotspots

Multiple independent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can occur closely in space and time, subjecting common geographic regions to multiple precipitation events over short periods. Motivated by an earlier study highlighting significant hydrological impacts of clustered MCSs in the US, we extend the analysis to seven global continental MCS hotspots using a 20‐year global MCS data set. Our findings reveal that (a) 40%–80% of MCSs occur in clusters, depending on the region; (b) clustered MCSs exhibit larger rainfall areas and higher mean areal rainfall, with the highest values observed in Argentina and India; and (c) clustered MCSs contribute increasing fractions to more extreme 24‐ and 72‐hr precipitation events across all regions. Our results underscore the critical role of clustered MCSs in driving hydrological extremes over global land regions and highlight the need to better understand how their formation mechanisms differ from non‐clustered events across the globe.

Hu, Huancui [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Process-Interactions in MCS Simulations Across Scales (Final Progress Report)

This project, funded by DOE Atmospheric System Research (DE-SC0020050), focused on improving the representation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in numerical weather and climate models by leveraging high-resolution observations from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The research aimed to evaluate model sensitivities to grid spacing, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, with a particular emphasis on improving convection parameterization for high-resolution modeling. Findings from this work highlight several key advancements. Model validation against ARM radar wind profiler data from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites revealed systematic biases in simulated convective mass flux profiles, leading to the development of an observationally constrained evaluation framework for diagnosing and improving model performance. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the representation of Amazonian MCSs was highly dependent on PBL scheme selection, while mid-latitude MCSs were more strongly influenced by microphysics parameterizations. A series of high-resolution WRF simulations, ranging from 4 km to 125 m grid spacing, provided insight into the behavior of convective drafts across scales. While updraft properties converged at sub-kilometer resolutions, biases in downdraft intensity persisted even at the finest resolution tested, emphasizing the need for further refinements in model physics. Additionally, comparisons of MCS vertical structures between mid-latitude and tropical environments revealed stronger updrafts and larger mass flux in mid-latitude MCSs, providing critical insights for improving climate model representations of storm-scale dynamics. The project’s findings have already contributed to advancing numerical modeling capabilities, particularly in WRF, MPAS, ICON, and DOE’s SCREAM model, by refining how convective processes are represented in high-resolution climate simulations. Results were disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and ARM/ASR Research Highlights, engaging the broader scientific community. The project also provided valuable training opportunities for two postdoctoral researchers, who played central roles in model development, analysis, and dissemination of results. Their work contributed to several publications and conference presentations, helping prepare them for careers in atmospheric modeling. By improving the simulation of MCSs, this research directly supports the development of next-generation climate models capable of more accurately representing extreme precipitation and convective processes. The insights gained will inform future improvements in convective parameterization and guide the design of high-resolution weather and climate simulations, ultimately enhancing the reliability of climate projections and weather forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Fine tuning GPS clock estimation in the MCS

With the completion of a 24 operational satellite constellation, GPS is fast approaching the critical milestone, Full Operational Capability (FOC). Although GPS is well capable of providing the timing accuracy and stability figures required by system specifications, the GPS community will continue to strive for further improvements in performance. The GPS Master Control Station (MCS) recently demonstrated that timing improvements are always composite Clock, and hence, Kalman Filter state estimation, providing a small improvement to user accuracy.

Hutsell, Steven T.

Extensive MRO CRISM Observations of 1.27 micron O2 Airglow in Mars Polar Night and Their Comparison to MRO MCS Temperature Profiles and LMD GCM Simulations

The Martian polar night distribution of 1.27 micron (0-0) band emission from O2 singlet delta [O2(1Delta(sub g))] is determined from an extensive set of Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectral Mapping (CRISM) limb scans observed over a wide range of Mars seasons, high latitudes, local times, and longitudes between 2009 and 2011. This polar nightglow reflects meridional transport and winter polar descent of atomic oxygen produced from CO2 photodissociation. A distinct peak in 1.27 micron nightglow appears prominently over 70-90NS latitudes at 40-60 km altitudes, as retrieved for over 100 vertical profiles of O2(1Delta(sub g)) 1.27 micron volume emission rates (VER). We also present the first detection of much (x80+/-20) weaker 1.58 micron (0-1) band emission from Mars O2(1Delta(sub g)). Co-located polar night CRISM O2(1Delta(sub g)) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) (McCleese et al., 2008) temperature profiles are compared to the same profiles as simulated by the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) general circulation/photochemical model (e.g., Lefèvre et al., 2004). Both standard and interactive aerosol LMD simulations (Madeleine et al., 2011a) underproduce CRISM O2(1Delta(sub g)) total emission rates by 40%, due to inadequate transport of atomic oxygen to the winter polar emission regions. Incorporation of interactive cloud radiative forcing on the global circulation leads to distinct but insufficient improvements in modeled polar O2(1Delta(sub g)) and temperatures. The observed and modeled anti-correlations between temperatures and 1.27 mm band VER reflect the temperature dependence of the rate coefficient for O2(1Delta(sub g)) formation, as provided in Roble (1995).

Atmosphere

Interactions Between CRs and MCs in the Vicinity of Supernova Remnants

Supernovae are incredibly energetic events which drive the dynamic state of the interstellar medium and accelerate cosmic rays up to energies of a few PeV. I present multi-wavelength observations constraining the shocks, chemistry, dust grain processing, and magnetic fields in a large sample of supernova remnants interacting with dense clouds. These are among the most luminous Galactic sources detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope. Surprisingly, spectral breaks are seen between GeV and TeV energies. Radio spectral breaks have also been detected for a few remnants, providing clear evidence that supernovae are a significant source of hadronic cosmic rays in the Galaxy. Resolving the origin of these spectral breaks will allow the physics of cosmic ray acceleration and diffusion to be probed.

Hewitt, John W.

Mesoscale Convective Systems Represented in High Resolution E3SMv2 and Impact of New Cloud and Convection Parameterizations

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global hydrological cycle, general circulation, and radiative energy budget. In this study, we evaluate MCS simulations in the second version of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2). E3SMv2 atmosphere model (EAMv2) is run at the uniform 0.25? horizontal resolution. We track MCSs consistently in the model and observations using the PyFLEXTRKR algorithm, which defines MCS based on both cloud-top brightness temperature (Tb) and surface precipitation. Results from using Tb only to define MCS, commonly used in previous studies, are also discussed. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are performed to examine the impact of new cloud and convection parameterizations developed for EAMv3 on simulated MCSs. Our results show that EAMv2 simulated MCS precipitation is largely underestimated in the tropics and contiguous United States. This is mainly attributed to the underestimated precipitation intensity in EAMv2. In contrast, the simulated MCS frequency becomes more comparable to observations if MCSs are defined only based on cloud-top Tb. The Tb-based MCS tracking method, however, includes many cloud systems with very weak precipitation which conflicts with the MCS definition. This result illustrates the importance of accounting for precipitation in evaluating simulated MCSs. We also find that the new physics parameterizations help increase the relative contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation in the tropics, but the simulated MCS properties are generally not improved. This suggests that simulating MCSs will remain a challenge for the next version of E3SM.

Zhang, Meng