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At least 19 records

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NASA NTRS2022

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗

DOE OSTI2016

Moment Magnitudes of Local/Regional Events from 1D Coda Calibrations in the Broader Middle East Region [Moment Magnitudes of Small to Moderate Size Regional Events from Coda Calibration in the Broader Middle East]

Reliable moment magnitude estimates for seismic events in the Middle East region can be difficult to obtain due to the uneven distribution of stations, the complex tectonic structure, and regions of high attenuation. In this paper, we take advantage of the many new broadband seismic stations that have become available through improved national networks and numerous temporary deployments. We make coda envelope-amplitude measurements for 2247 events recorded by 68 stations over 13 narrow frequency bands ranging between 0.03 and 8 Hz. The absolute scaling of these spectra was calculated based on independent waveform modeling solutions of the moment magnitudes for a subset of these events to avoid circularity. Using our 1D path calibrations, we determined coda-based magnitudes for a majority of the events. We obtain fairly good agreement with waveform-modeled seismic moments for the larger events (Mw>4.5) at low frequencies (<0.7 Hz). As expected, the coda-derived source spectra become increasingly scattered at higher frequencies (>0.7 Hz) because of unaccounted 2D path effects, as well as mixing of both Sn coda and Lg coda, which have different attenuation behavior. This scatter leads to increased variance in the magnitudes estimated for smaller events in which low-frequency amplitudes are below the noise levels and the higher frequencies are the only signals available. We quantify the expected variance in coda envelope amplitudes as a function of frequency using interstation scatter as our metric. Finally, the net results of this study provide thousands of new 1D coda magnitude estimates for events in the broad region, as well as the necessary initial starting model for use in a new related 2D coda study (Pasyanos et al., 2016).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Structurally Guided Removal of DeISGylase Biochemical Activity from Papain-Like Protease Originating from Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging human pathogen that is the causative agent for Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). With MERS outbreaks resulting in over 35% fatalities and now spread to 27 countries, MERS-CoV poses a significant ongoing threat to global human health. As part of its viral genome, MERS-CoV encodes a papain-like protease (PLpro) that has been observed to act as a deubiquitinase and deISGylase to antagonize type I interferon (IFN-I) immune pathways. This activity is in addition to its viral polypeptide cleavage function. Although the overall impact of MERS-CoV PLpro function is observed to be essential, difficulty has been encountered in delineating the importance of its separate functions, particularly its deISGylase activity. As a result, the interface of MERS-CoV and human interferon-stimulated gene product 15 (hISG15) was probed with isothermal calorimetry, which suggests that the C-terminal domain of hISG15 is principally responsible for interactions. Subsequently, the structure of MERS-CoV PLpro was solved to 2.4 Å in complex with the C-terminal domain of hISG15. Utilizing this structural information, mutants were generated that lacked appreciable deISGylase activity but retained wild-type deubiquitinase and peptide cleavage activities. Hence, this provides a new platform for understanding viral deISGylase activity within MERS-CoV and other CoVs. IMPORTANCE Coronaviruses, such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), encode a papain-like protease (PLpro) that possesses the ability to antagonize interferon immune pathways through the removal of ubiquitin and interferon-stimulated gene product 15 (ISG15) from target proteins. The lack of CoV proteases with attenuated deISGylase activity has been a key obstacle in delineating the impact between deubiquitinase and deISGylase activities on viral host evasion and pathogenesis. Here, biophysical techniques revealed that MERS-CoV PLpro chiefly engages human ISG15 through its C-terminal domain. The first structure of MERS-CoV PLpro in complex with this domain exposed the interface between these two entities. Employing these structural insights, mutations were employed to selectively remove deISGylase activity with no appreciable impact on its other deubiquitinase and peptide cleavage biochemical properties. Excitingly, this study introduces a new tool to probe the pathogenesis of MERS-CoV and related viruses through the removal of viral deISGylase activity.

Daczkowski, Courtney M.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Targeting zoonotic viruses: Structure-based inhibition of the 3C-like protease from bat coronavirus HKU4–The likely reservoir host to the human coronavirus that causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)

Abstract not provided

John, Sarah E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗

NASA NTRS2020

Rare Atmospheric River Caused Record Floods Across the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for some of the hydroclimatic extremes around the world. Their mechanisms and contribution to flooding in the Middle East are relatively poorly understood. This study shows that the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East were caused by a powerful AR, originated from the North Atlantic Ocean. Iran, in particular, was substantially affected by the floods. The nearly 9000 km long AR propagated across North Africa and the Middle-East, and was fed by additional moisture from several other sources on its pathway. Simultaneous presence of a mid-latitude system and a subtropical jet facilitated the moisture supply. The AR, as passing over the Zagros Mountains, produced record rainfall induced by the orographic forcing. The resulting floods caused widespread damage to infrastructures and left a death toll of at least 76 in Iran.

Amin Dezfuli↗

NASA NTRS2019

What Caused the Record Floods of March 2019 Across the Middle East?

Dezfuli, Amin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Conflicts in the Middle East

We analyzed the latest climate model projections (CMIP6) of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future changes in the Middle East. A baseline period (1981-2010) was compared with the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. The Tigris-Euphrates headwaters was identified as the hotspot of future compound effects of climate change in the region. In particular, the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) region is likely to see the most dramatic compound changes of any area in the Middle East. That assessment was based on the model projections that showed rapid warming, increased interannual precipitation variability, and decreased precipitation all coinciding in an area of massive irrigation development and known transboundary water tension. It is likely that GAP would exacerbate environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region, therefore its adverse impacts might outnumber its benefits in coming decades. This study attempts to warn decision-makers of the urgent need to integrate these trends to water resource planning and international negotiations.

Middle East↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Dusty Atmospheric River Brings Floods to the Middle East

Torrential rainfall and rapid snowmelt in April 2017 caused deadly floods in northwestern Iran. An atmospheric river (AR), propagating across the Middle East and North Africa, was found responsible for this extreme event. The snowmelt was triggered by precipitation and warm advection associated with the AR. Total satellite-based rainfall for April 2017 was moderately below normal, suggesting that a heavy flood can happen during dry years. The AR was fed by moisture from the Mediterranean and Red Seas. Despite its adverse societal consequences, this event was beneficial to the recovery of the desiccating Lake Urmia. The impacts of this AR were not limited to flooding; it also facilitated dust transport to the region. This distinct characteristic of the ARs in the Middle East is attributed to major mineral dust sources located along their pathways. This event was reasonably predicted at 7-day lead time, crucially important for successful early warning systems.

Atmospheric river↗

DOE OSTI2012

Global Threat Reduction Initiative Africa and Middle East Project Plan 2012

GTRI Africa and Middle East Project Plan submitted for school project to American Graduate University.

Jamison, Jeremy D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dysregulation of lung epithelial cell homeostasis and immunity contributes to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease severity

Coronaviruses (CoV) emerge suddenly from animal reservoirs to cause novel diseases in new hosts. Discovered in 2012, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is endemic in camels in the Middle East and is continually causing local outbreaks and epidemics. While all three newly emerging human CoVs from the past 20 years (SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and MERS-CoV) cause respiratory disease, each CoV has unique host interactions that drive differential pathogeneses. To better understand the virus and host interactions driving lethal MERS-CoV infection, we performed a longitudinal multi-omics analysis of sublethal and lethal MERS-CoV infection in mice. Significant differences were observed in body weight loss, virus titers, and acute lung injury among lethal and sub-lethal virus doses. Virus-induced apoptosis of type I and II alveolar epithelial cells suggests that loss or dysregulation of these key cell populations was a major driver of severe disease. Omics analysis suggested differential pathogenesis was multi-factorial with clear differences among innate and adaptive immune pathways as well as those that regulate lung epithelial homeostasis. Infection of mice lacking functional T and B cells showed that adaptive immunity was important in controlling viral replication but also increased pathogenesis. In summary, we provide a high-resolution host response atlas for MERS-CoV infection and disease severity. Multi-omics studies of viral pathogenesis offer a unique opportunity to not only better understand the molecular mechanisms of disease but also to identify genes and pathways that can be exploited for therapeutic intervention all of which is important for our future pandemic preparedness.

MERS-CoV↗

NASA NTRS2013

Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region

In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately -27.2 plus or minus 0.6 millimeters per year equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 cubic kimometers during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of ''best current capabilities'' in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3 plus or minus 2.1 millimeters per year equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3 plus or minus 10.9 cubic kilometers in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget.

GRACE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Identification and Characterization of Dust Source Regions Across North Africa and the Middle East Using MISR Satellite Observations

Abstract Motivated by limitations in current satellite‐based dust source identification techniques, this study examines dust emissions and concentrations over North Africa and the Middle East during 2000–2016 by analyzing stereo and optical products from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer instrument on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration polar‐orbiting Terra satellite. Based on the occurrence of fast‐moving, near‐surface dust plumes from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer cloud motion vector product, dust sources in the study region are identified in geographical depressions, including the Bodélé Depression, which represents the leading source. The West African El Djouf desert generates substantial dust emissions, which are typically underestimated by aerosol loading‐based dust source identifications. In response to local vegetation cover anomalies, dust emissions and concentrations increased at 15% year −1 over the Middle East and decreased at 12% year −1 over the central Sahel during 2001–2013 but partly recovered toward their climatological means afterward.

Yu, Yan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unfolded Protein Response Inhibition Reduces Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-Induced Acute Lung Injury

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes severe atypical pneumonia in infected individuals, but the underlying mechanisms of pathogenesis remain unknown. While much has been learned from the few reported autopsy cases, an in-depth understanding of the cells targeted by MERS-CoV in the human lung and their relative contribution to disease outcomes is needed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation ofthe Middle East and North Africa Land Data Assimilation System

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is dominated by dry, warm deserts, areas of dense population, and inefficient use of fresh water resources. Due to the scarcity, high intensity, and short duration of rainfall in the MENA, the region is prone to hydro climatic extremes that are realized by devastating floods and times of drought. However, given its widespread water stress and the considerable demand for water, the MENA remains relatively poorly monitored. This is due in part to the shortage of meteorological observations and the lack of data sharing between nations. As a result, the accurate monitoring of the dynamics of the water cycle in the MENA is difficult. The Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA region (MENA LDAS) has been developed to provide regional, gridded fields of hydrological states and fluxes relevant for water resources assessments. As an extension of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the MENA LDAS was designed to aid in the identification and evaluation of regional hydrological anomalies by synergistically combining the physically-based Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) with observations from several independent data products including soil-water storage variations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and irrigation intensity derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this fashion, we estimate the mean and seasonal cycle of the water budget components across the MENA.

Bolten, John D.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Detecting Clandestine Reprocessing Activities in the Middle East

Nuclear reprocessing plants release krypton-85 that can be detected in the atmospheric air downwind from the facility. Atmospheric transport modelling is applied to determine the area over which krypton-85 emissions from undeclared reprocessing activities in the Middle East would still be detectable against the background. This is used to assess the feasibility of monitoring known reprocessing plants and detecting unknown reprocessing plants. The annual wind flow over Dimona is analyzed and it is concluded that a known reprocessing plant could be monitored with one or a few fixed monitoring stations. Unknown reprocessing plants are more difficult to detect due to the high background levels of krypton-85 and fixed stations would not be feasible. Instead, the number of air samples that have to be taken at random locations for a successful detection is calculated. Taking random air samples can present a logistical effort but can yield reliable and timely detection of clandestine reprocessing plants. This could be used for verification of an international treaty that prohibits the separation of plutonium in the Middle East.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2013

Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region

In this study, we use observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to evaluate freshwater storage trends in the north-central Middle East, including portions of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and western Iran, from January 2003 to December 2009. GRACE data show an alarming rate of decrease in total water storage of approximately -27.2 plus or minus 0.6 mm per yr equivalent water height, equal to a volume of 143.6 cubic kilometers during the course of the study period. Additional remote-sensing information and output from land surface models were used to identify that groundwater losses are the major source of this trend. The approach used in this study provides an example of ''best current capabilities'' in regions like the Middle East, where data access can be severely limited. Results indicate that the region lost 17.3 plus or minus 2.1 mm per yr equivalent water height of groundwater during the study period, or 91.3 plus or minus 10.9 cubic kilometers in volume. Furthermore, results raise important issues regarding water use in transboundary river basins and aquifers, including the necessity of international water use treaties and resolving discrepancies in international water law, while amplifying the need for increased monitoring for core components of the water budget

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2018

Importance of Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies Targeting Multiple Antigenic Sites on the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Spike Glycoprotein To Avoid Neutralization Escape

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes a highly lethal pulmonary infection with ~35% mortality. The potential for a future pandemic originating from animal reservoirs or health care-associated events is a major public health concern. There are no vaccines or therapeutic agents currently available for MERS-CoV. Using a probe-based single B cell cloning strategy, we have identified and characterized multiple neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) specifically binding to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) or S1 (non-RBD) regions from a convalescent MERS-CoV-infected patient and from immunized rhesus macaques. RBD-specific MAbs tended to have greater neutralizing potency than non-RBD S1-specific MAbs. We report six RBD-specific and five S1-specific MAbs could be sorted into four RBD and three non-RBD distinct binding patterns, based on competition assays, mapping neutralization escape variants, and structural analysis. We determined cocrystal structures for two MAbs targeting the RBD from different angles and show they can bind the RBD only in the “out” position. We then showed that selected RBD-specific, non-RBD S1-specific, and S2-specific MAbs given prophylactically prevented MERS-CoV replication in lungs and protected mice from lethal challenge. Importantly, combining RBD- and non-RBD MAbs delayed the emergence of escape mutations in a cell-based virus escape assay. These studies identify MAbs targeting different antigenic sites on S that will be useful for defining mechanisms of MERS-CoV neutralization and for developing more effective interventions to prevent or treat MERS-CoV infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗