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Results for “MODEL CALIBRATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

SNL will be able to provide well-calibrated models to weapons systems analysts by integrating an engine for constitutive model calibration with the GRANTA materials database

Researchers at Sandia National Laboratories have integrated the GRANTA materials database with the MatCal calibration engine to calibrate material models from characterization data. GRANTA is gaining acceptance across the NNSA Tri-lab complex and is being populated with weapons-specific test data by Sandia experimentalists. To use that data to create material models for use by weapons systems analysts, MatCal has been enabled import calibration data and test conditions from GRANTA to quickly and reproducibly produce a calibrated set of parameters for a given constitutive model. The team is currently working to store the parameters characterizing material behavior in GRANTA to make them accessible by all weapons analysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Embedded Model Error Representation for Bayesian Model Calibration

Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often the largest contributor to the overall predictive uncertainty. This work builds on a recently developed framework of embedded, internal model correction, in order to represent and quantify structural errors, together with model parameters,within a Bayesian inference context. We focus specifically on a Polynomial Chaos representation with additive modification of existing model parameters, enabling a non-intrusive procedure for efficient approximate likelihood construction, model error estimation, and disambiguation of model and data errors’ contributions to predictive uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on several synthetic examples, as well as on a chemical ignition problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Embedded Model Error Representation for Bayesian Model Calibration

Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy,is often the largest contributor to the overall predictive uncertainty. This work builds on a recently developed framework of embedded, internal model correction, in order to represent and quantify structural errors, together with model parameters, within a Bayesian inference context. We focus specifically on a Polynomial Chaos representation with additive modification of existing model parameters, enabling a non-intrusive procedure for efficient approximate likelihood construction, model error estimation, and disambiguation of model and data errors' contributions to predictive uncertainty. As a result, the framework is demonstrated on several synthetic examples, as well as on a chemical ignition problem

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

NIR Dataset and Models (Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Calibration Dataset for Butanediol Fermentation and Multivariate Calibration Models) [SWR-22-60]

2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be used in a variety of chemical feedstocks, liquid fuels, and biosynthetic building blocks. While 2,3-BDO can be efficiently produced by fermentation, the fermentation requires continuous monitoring and control to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize inhibitory coproducts. Because of the time required for sampling and at-line measurement of fermentation samples with high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), the ability for operators to perform real-time modification to fermentation conditions is limited. To overcome this challenge, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have developed a calibration model which can predict the concentration of several analytes in real-time using near-infrared (NIR) spectra of the filtered fermentation broth. While significantly reducing the need for off-line sampling, NREL expects this technology to play a critical role in maximizing 2,3-BDO production. 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is a useful chemical platform that can be used to create a variety of products. For instance, 2,3-BDO can be (1) dehydrated and converted into methyl ethyl ketone, a liquid fuel additive or (2) deoxydehydrated into 1,3-butadiene for synthetic rubber, which can also be oligomerized in high yields to gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. In order to maximize 2,3-BDO production, frequent measurement of fermentation samples is needed, as small changes in oxygen concentration can drive the fermentation to undesired products. For example, oxygen-deficient conditions result in glycerol production, while excess oxygen concentrations result in acetoin production. This results in the need for measuring dissolved oxygen, glucose, and xylose concentrations in order to optimize the aeration rate of the fermentation. Traditional monitoring methods occurs off-line and can take up to 30 minutes per sample. With multiple fermenters and high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) injectors, resulting in the need for multiple samples, the sampling process can take hours to complete. NREL’s calibration model can predict the glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol concentrations from NIR spectra of filtered fermentation liquor samples. Using a partial least-squares (PLS) calibration model, NREL’s model can monitor the concentration of these analytes during subsequent fermentations at bench- and pilot-scale, demonstrating the utility of NIR spectroscopy combined with chemometrics for real-time, at-line monitoring of 2,3-BDO fermentations.

Wolfrum, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast matrix algebra for Bayesian model calibration

In Bayesian model calibration, evaluation of the likelihood function usually involves finding the inverse and determinant of a covariance matrix. When Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to sample from the posterior, hundreds of thousands of likelihood evaluations may be required. In this paper, we demonstrate that the structure of the covariance matrix can be exploited, leading to substantial time savings in practice. Here, we also derive two simple equations for approximating the inverse of the covariance matrix in this setting, which can be computed in near-quadratic time. The practical implications of these strategies are demonstrated using a simple numerical case study and the "quack" R package. For a covariance matrix with 1000 rows, application of these strategies for a million likelihood evaluations leads to a speedup of roughly 4000 compared to the naive implementation

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Model Calibration: Validation of GridLAB-D Thermal Dynamics Modeling

This report investigates how well GridLAB-D’s house model characterizes the thermal dynamics of buildings given the overpredicted diurnal electric load swing observed in the Distribution System Operation with Transactive (DSO+T) study. This study seeks to validate GridLAB-D’s house model by calibrating it to data from the well-instrumented Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lab Homes in Richland, WA. The datasets chosen included multiple pre-cooling and pre-heating testing periods where the indoor air temperature was allowed to float over a multi-hour length of time to mimic diurnal behavior. The multi-season calibrations were evaluated by comparing the heating/cooling electric power, indoor air temperature, and the rise/decay time during temperature float periods with Lab Homes data. The default GridLAB-D assumptions for latent load fraction, air heat capacity, mass heat capacity, window-to-wall-ratio, overall envelope conductance (assumed as NORMAL thermal integrity level), and solar heat gain coefficient were compared with the calibrated model to confirm when the default assumptions were adequate and the impact of calibration on the accuracy of modeling the thermal dynamics of homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Model Calibration with Censored Data

Here, the purpose of model calibration is to make the model predictions closer to reality. The classical Kennedy-O'Hagan approach is widely used for model calibration, which can account for the inadequacy of the computer model while simultaneously estimating the unknown calibration parameters. In many applications, the phenomenon of censoring occurs when the exact outcome of the physical experiment is not observed, but is only known to fall within a certain region. In such cases, the Kennedy-O'Hagan approach cannot be used directly, and we propose a method to incorporate the censoring information when performing model calibration. The method is applied to study the compression phenomenon of liquid inside a bottle. The results show significant improvement over the traditional calibration methods, especially when the number of censored observations is large.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Reduced chemistry model calibration using unsteady flames with repetitive extinction and ignition

In this paper, combustion in a narrow channel with an imposed temperature gradient is used to calibrate a reduced chemical mechanism. The focus is placed on unsteady flames with repetitive extinction and ignition (FREI) at high pressure. The reduced mechanism follows a hybrid approach, combining a small fuel-dependent submechanism with a detailed fuel-independent submechanism for the core species chemistry. The fuel-dependent submechanism consists of three species and nine reactions describing both the low and high-temperature fuel decomposition pathways. The sensitivity of the extinction and ignition locations to the fuel-dependent reactions is assessed and multiple reactions are found to affect the FREI behavior. The sensitive reactions are calibrated following a Bayesian approach. The calibrated reduced model is compared to a detailed model and good agreement in ignition delay times and laminar flame speeds is observed. Finally, this illustrates the potential of a micro flow reactor with a controlled temperature profile to test fuels, calibrate chemical models, and infer kinetic data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗