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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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The Value Proposition of Multi-Megawatt Electric Power/Propulsion for the Human Exploration of Mars

NASA and other space agencies have been offering stakeholders an architecture for the human exploration of Mars that has remained essentially unchanged since the 1960's. The mission duration and launch mass are the two first order figures of merit that drive the total cost of such an architecture. The options studied to date center on the "conjunction class" or "Long Stay" mission, in which surface infrastructure elements are sent ahead on uncrewed, slow trajectories requiring a minimum amount of propellant, and the crewed elements are sent at the synotic cycle's shortest trajectory, stay on Mars until the next close alignment, and then return to Earth. Total crewed mission durations for these architectures range from 900 to 1100 days, with variations driven primarily by trades between the amount of propellant launched and the effective specific mass of the propulsion technology assumed (e.g., chemical, nuclear thermal, solar electric, nuclear electric). Mars transit propulsion systems assumed in mission architectures studied to date have all resulted in architectural figures of merit that drive the cost to a level of "too much." However, nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) technology offers a "knob" that might be turned to enable a radically different Mars architecture, whose launch mass and mission duration may enable a value proposition more palatable to mission stakeholders. Mars architectures studied to date have assumed an NEP system providing 2.5 MWe at a specific mass of no less than 20 kg/kWe. This has often been seen as obtainable with a moderately high temperature fission reactor. An NEP system providing 15 MWe at specific mass of ~1 kg/kWe, though, could enable a short stay (30 days on surface) Mars mission, requiring only two or three SLS-class launch vehicles and a total mission duration of under one calendar year. However, turning this NEP "knob" would require a high risk development program driving innovation on the order of that delivered by the Manhattan Project, but for a fraction of the cost. Any technology option that might offer such a capability at such a development cost now stands at a low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 3, would be based on a nuclear energy source (likely fusion), and would require an extremely high risk (and rapid) development effort. The aggressive, parallel path project management paradigm exemplified by the original Manhattan Project might have the best chance of success. An energy source developed in this manner may also have a major impact on the terrestrial power industry.

power↗

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Trends↗

Evaluation of surface energy and radiation balance systems for FIFE

The energy balance and radiation balance components were determined at six sites during the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) conducted south of Manhattan, Kansas during the summer of 1987. The objectives were: to determine the effect of slope and aspect, throughout a growing season, on the magnitude of the surface energy balance fluxes as determined by the Energy Balance Method (EBM); to investigate the calculation of the soil heat flux density at the surface as calculated from the heat capacity and the thermal conductivity equations; and to evaluate the performance of the Surface Energy and Radiation Balance System (SERBS). A total of 17 variables were monitored at each site. They included net, solar (up and down), total hemispherical (up and down), and diffuse radiation, soil temperature and heat flux density, air and wet bulb temperature gradients, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. A preliminary analysis of the data, for the season, indicate that variables including net radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure, and wind speed were quite similar at the sites even though the sites were as much as 16 km apart and represented four cardinal slopes and the top of a ridge.

Fritschen, Leo J.↗

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

climate change↗

FIFE data analysis: Testing BIOME-BGC predictions for grasslands

The First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) was conducted in a 15 km by 15 km research area located 8 km south of Manhattan, Kansas. The site consists primarily of native tallgrass prairie mixed with gallery oak forests and croplands. The objectives of FIFE are to better understand the role of biology in controlling the interactions between the land and the atmosphere, and to determine the value of remotely sensed data for estimating climatological parameters. The goals of FIFE are twofold: the upscale integration of models, and algorithm development for satellite remote sensing. The specific objectives of the field campaigns carried out in 1987 and 1989 were the simultaneous acquisition of satellite, atmospheric, and surface data; and the understanding of the processes controlling surface energy and mass exchange. Collected data were used to study the dynamics of various ecosystem processes (photosynthesis, evaporation and transpiration, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, etc.). Modelling terrestrial ecosystems at scales larger than that of a homogeneous plot led to the development of simple, generalized models of biogeochemical cycles that can be accurately applied to different biomes through the use of remotely sensed data. A model was developed called BIOME-BGC (for BioGeochemical Cycles) from a coniferous forest ecosystem model, FOREST-BGC, where a biome is considered a combination of a life forms in a specified climate. A predominately C4-photosynthetic grassland is probably the most different from a coniferous forest possible, hence the FIFE site was an excellent study area for testing BIOME-BGC. The transition from an essentially one-dimensional calculation to three-dimensional, landscape scale simulations requires the introduction of such factors as meteorology, climatology, and geomorphology. By using remotely sensed geographic information data for important model inputs, process-based ecosystem simulations at a variety of scales are possible. The second objective of this study is concerned with determining the accuracy of the estimated fluxes from BIOME-BGC, when extrapolated spatially over the entire 15-km by 15-km FIFE site. To accomplish this objective, a topographically distributed map of soil depth at the FIFE site was developed. These spatially-distributed fluxes were then tested with data from aircraft by eddy-flux correlation obtained during the FIFE experiment.

Hunt, E. Raymond, Jr.↗

Aerosol optical properties over the midcontinental United States

Solar and sky radiation measurements were analyzed to obtain aerosol properties such as the optical thickness and the size distribution. The measurements were conducted as part of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment during the second intensive field campaign (IFC) from June 25 to July 14, 1987, and the fifth IFC from July 25 to August 12, 1989, on the Konza Prairie near Manhattan, Kansas. Correlations with climatological and meteorological parameters show that during the period of observations in 1987, two types of air masses dominated the area: an air mass with low optical thickness and low temperature air associated with a northerly breeze, commonly referred to as the continental air, and an air mass with a higher optical thickness and higher temperature air associated with a southerly wind which we call 'Gulf air'. The size distributions show a predominance of the larger size particles in 'Gulf air'. Because of the presence of two contrasting air masses, correlations with parameters such as relative humidity, specific humidity, pressure, temperature, and North Star sky radiance reveal some interesting aspects. In 1989, clear distinctions between continental and Gulf air cannot be made; the reason for this will be discussed.

Halthore, Rangasayi N.↗

Nearest-Neighbor Machine Learning Feature Selection for Interpretation of Microbial Molecular Signatures from Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry Data

Mass spectrometry (MS) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection during astrobiological missions on ocean worlds in our solar system. Accurate and generalizable machine learning methods could enhance science return on investment by predicting seawater chemistry and classifying isotopic biosignatures, either as a signature consistent with microbial life (biotic) or as a novelty (unclassified/unique). However, machine learning models are likely to be complex and involve interactions between MS features, making biosignatures difficult to interpret. Feature selection methods provide biological and chemical context that help interpret the mechanisms of machine learning models, but these methods also need the ability to detect complex interactions. Previously, we developed a machine learning feature selection algorithm called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that has the ability to identify important model features that involve complex interactions and automatically reduce correlation and the dimensionality in a high-dimensional variable space. The standard distance metrics used in NPDR – Manhattan and Euclidean – assume the multivariate data are isotropic, which is often violated in real data due to differences in the covariance between variables. Thus, we extend NPDR to include a random forest distance, and other anisotropic distance metrics, for computing nearest neighbors. We also augment the isotope-ratio MS data with time-series features from the raw MS signal to improve biotic classification. We test NPDR on our novel experimental ocean world seawater analog MS data. We measure isotope fractionations of volatile CO 2 that could be measured in exospheres or plumes. Samples include baseline abiotic conditions using a range of possible seawater chemistry consistent with Europa and Enceladus, and biotic samples that include microbes in these seawaters. We use penalized NPDR with random forest proximity to identify interpretable microbial molecular signatures. We compare features with random forest importance, and we train a classifier that discriminates between biotic and abiotic samples with high accuracy. These ML-trained ocean-world analog MS data could be used to assist in identifying biosignatures during future missions.

geochemistry↗

Riley County Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Runoff Curve Calculation Methods to Inform Local Resiliency Initiatives in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for land cover-specific CN and account for various farming techniques but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Active and passive microwave measurements of soil moisture in FIFE

During the intensive field campaigns of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) in May-October of 1987, several nearly simultaneous measurements were made with low-altitude flights of the L-band radiometer and C- and X-band scatterometers over two transects in the Konza Prairie Natural Research Area, some 8 km south of Manhattan, Kansas. These measurements showed that although the scatterometers were sensitive to soil moisture variations in most regions under the flight path, the L-band radiometer lost most of its sensitivity in regions unburned for many years. The correlation coefficient derived from the regression between the radar backscattering coefficient and the soil moisture was found to improve with the increase in antenna incidence angle. This is attributed to a steeper falloff of the backscattering coefficient as a function of local incidence at angles near nadir than at angles greater than 30 deg.

Wang, J. R.↗

The first ISLSCP field experiment (FIFE)

The background and planning of the first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) field experiment (FIFE) are discussed. In FIFE, the NOAA series of satellites and GOES will be used to provide a moderate-temporal resolution coarse-spatial resolution data set, with SPOT and aircraft data providing the high-spatial resolution pointable-instrument capability. The paper describes the experiment design, the measurement strategy, the configuration of the site of the experiment (which will be at and around the Konza prairie near Manhattan, Kansas), and the experiment's operations and execution.

Sellers, P. J.↗

Calibration, navigation, and registration of MAMS data for FIFE

The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) was conducted to study the interaction of the atmosphere with the land surface and the research problems associated with the interpretation of satellite data over the Earth's land surface. The experimental objectives of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) were the simultaneous acquisition of satellite, atmospheric, and surface data and to use these data to understand the processes controlling energy/mass exchange at the surface. The experiment site is a 15 x 15 km area southeast of Manhattan, Kansas, intersected by Interstate 70 and Kansas highway 177. The Konza Prairie portion is 5 x 5 km and is a controlled experiment site consisting primarily of native tall grass prairie vegetation. The remainder of the site is grazing and farm land with trees along creek beds that are scattered over the area. Airborne multispectral imagery from the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) was collected over this region on two days during Intensive Field Campaign-1 (1FC-1) to study the time and space variability of remotely-sensed geophysical parameters. These datasets consist of multiple overflights covering about a 60-min period during late morning on June 4, 1987 and shortly after dark on the following day. Image data from each overpass were calibrated and Earth located with respect to each other using aircraft inertial navigation system parameters and ground control points. These were the first MAMS flights made with 10-bit thermal data.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗