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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1980

Forecast of long term coal supply and mining conditions: Model documentation and results

A coal industry model was developed to support the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in its investigation of advanced underground coal extraction systems. The model documentation includes the programming for the coal mining cost models and an accompanying users' manual, and a guide to reading model output. The methodology used in assembling the transportation, demand, and coal reserve components of the model are also described. Results presented for 1986 and 2000, include projections of coal production patterns and marginal prices, differentiated by coal sulfur content.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Airport Pricing Strategies

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various downward adjustments in welfare maximizing tolls may well cause the optimal values of these to be negative. Insofar as subsidization is considered unacceptable for whichever reason, our results warn that the most efficient among the non-negative tolls may actually be a zero toll; the pure congestion toll may actually decrease welfare compared to the base case. The model in this paper contains a few simplifying assumptions that may be relaxed in future work. Load factors and aircraft capacity are fixed in this model for simplicity. In a more advanced version of this model, load factors and aircraft capacity can be endogenized. This makes the derivation of the optimality conditions far more complicated, but it should be feasible in a numerical experiment. One can also add a fourth layer to the model, describing the airport's optimization problem. For example, the airport can maximize profits under a cost recovery constraint. The model then deals with interactions between four types of agents. No distinction is made between peak and off-peak traffic in this paper. Finally, the results of the numerical exercise in this paper need to be checked against an asymmetric equilibrium.

Pels, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1985

Automated Chromosome Breakage Assessment

An automated karyotyping machine was built at JPL in 1972. It does computerized karyotyping, but it has some hardware limitations. The image processing hardware that was available at a reasonable price in 1972 was marginal, at best, for this job. In the meantime, NASA has developed an interest in longer term spaceflights and an interest in using chromosome breakage studies as a dosimeter for radiation or perhaps other damage that might occur to the tissues. This uses circulating lymphocytes as a physiological dosimeter looking for chromosome breakage on long-term spaceflights. For that reason, we have reactivated the automated karyotyping work at JPL. An update on that work, and a description of where it appears to be headed is presented.

Castleman, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Systems Margin Metric for Capability Above Basic Estimates

A systems margin metric is described that indicates the total system performance capability above the basic estimates (CABE) for mass, power, energy, propellant, V, ISP, computer performance, and any other design parameter with a defined margin. This concept normalizes all terms for contingency, margin, growth allowance, and reserves to the amount that the basic mass of the vehicle could grow if each of those “room to grow” terms were released. The CABE metric is intended to provide a uniform indication of the total performance margin of a system at a given point in the project life cycle. The CABE metric can also provide a normalized means to trade the “room to grow” terms between various resources in order to solve system performance issues as they arise. For example, the CABE percentage for ISP margin could be equally traded with the CABE percentage for power margin.

Lepsch, Roger↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Analysis and Review of Measures and Relationships in Space Transportation Affordability

The affordability of transportation to or from space is of continued interest across numerous and diverse stakeholders in our aerospace industry. Such an important metric as affordability deserves a clear understanding among stakeholders about what is meant by affordability, costs, and related terms, as otherwise it's difficult to see where specific improvements are needed or where to target specific investments. As captured in the famous words of Lewis Carroll, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". As important as understanding a metric may be, with terms such as costs, prices, specific costs, average costs, marginal costs, etc., it is equally important to understand the relationship among these measures. In turn, these measures intermingle with caveats and factors that introduce more measures in need of a common understanding among stakeholders. These factors include flight rates, capability, and payload. This paper seeks to review the costs of space transportation systems and the relationships among the many factors involved in costs from the points of view of diverse decision makers. A decision maker may have an interest in acquiring a single launch considering the best price (along with other factors in their business case), or an interest in many launches over time. Alternately, a decision maker may have a specific interest in developing a space transportation system that will offer certain prices, or flight rate capability, or both, at a certain up-front cost. The question arises for the later, to reuse or to expend? As it is necessary in thinking about the future to clearly understand the past and the present, this paper will present data and graphics to assist stakeholders in visualizing trends and the current state of affairs in the launch industry. At all times, raw data will be referenced (or made available separately) alongside detailed explanations about the data, so as to avoid the confusion or misleading conclusions that occur more often than not with complex graphs or statements when such context is lacking.

affordability↗
NASA NTRS2014

Better Tracking and Management

The global airline industry continued to grow in 2014, with profits projected to expand from $12.9 billion in 2013 to $18.7 billion by the end of this year. Key factors driving this increase include continued improvement in overall economic conditions, greater air cargo volumes and stable fuel prices. However, the razor-thin profit margin of 2.5 percent is susceptible to various risks, including the possibility of higher fuel prices due to political crises around the world. In addition, new orders for Airbus and Boeing aircraft are expected to be half of the nearly 3,000 ordered in 2013.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Economic benefits of supersonic overland operation

Environmental concerns are likely to impose some restrictions on the next generation of supersonic commercial transport. There is a global concern over the effects of engine emissions on the ozone layer which protects life on Earth from ultraviolet radiation. There is also some concern over community noise. The High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) must meet at least the current subsonic noise certification standards to be compatible with the future subsonic fleet. Concerns over sonic boom represent another environmental and marketing challenge to the HSCT program. The most attractive feature of the supersonic transport is speed, which offers the traveling public significant time-savings on long range routes. The sonic boom issue represents a major environmental and economic challenge as well. Supersonic operation overland produces the most desirable economic results. However, unacceptable overland sonic boom raise levels may force HSCT to use subsonic speeds overland. These environmental and economic challenges are likely to impose some restrictions on supersonic operation, thus introducing major changes to existing route structures and future supersonic network composition. The current subsonic route structure may have to be altered for supersonic transports to avoid sensitive areas in the stratosphere or to minimize overland flight tracks. It is important to examine the alternative route structure and the impact of these restrictions on the economic viability of the overall supersonic operation. Future market potential for HSCT fleets must be large enough to enable engine and airframe manufacturers to build the plane at a cost that provides them with an attractive return on investment and to sell it at a price that allows the airlines to operate with a reasonable margin of profit. Subsonic overland operation of a supersonic aircraft hinders its economic viability. Ways to increase the market potential of supersonic operation are described.

Metwally, Munir↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Mars Sample Return mission utilizing in-situ propellant production

This report presents the results of a study examining the potential of in-situ propellant production (ISPP) on Mars to aid in achieving a low cost Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. Two versions of such a mission were examined: a baseline version employing a dual string spacecraft, and a light weight version employing single string architecture with selective redundancy. Both systems employed light weight avionics currently being developed by Lockheed Martin, Jet Propulsion Lab and elsewhere in the aerospace community, both used a new concept for a simple, light weight parachuteless sample return capsule, both used a slightly modified version of the Mars Surveyor lander currently under development at Lockheed Martin for flight in 1998, and both used a combination of the Sabatier-electrolysis and reverse water gas shift ISPP systems to produce methane/oxygen propellant on Mars by combining a small quantity of imported hydrogen with the Martian CO2 atmosphere. It was found that the baseline mission could be launched on a Delta 7925 and return a 0.5 kg sample with 82 percent mission launch margin;over and beyond subsystem allocated contingency masses . The lightweight version could be launched on a Mid-Lite vehicle and return a 0.25 kg sample with 11 percent launch margin, over and above subsystem contingency mass allocations.

Zubrin, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Parable of the Boiled System Safety Professional: Drift to Failure

Recall from the Parable of the Boiled Frog, that tossing a frog into boiling water causes the frog to jump out and hop away while placing a frog in suitable temperature water and slowly bringing the water to a boil results in the frog boiling due to not being aware of the slowly increasing danger, theoretically, of course. System safety professionals must guard against allowing dangers to creep unnoticed into their projects and be ever alert to notice signs of impending problems. People have used various phrases related to the idea, most notably, latent conditions, James Reason in Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents (1, pp 10-11), Drift to Failure, Sydney Dekker (2, pp 82-86) in Resilience Engineering: Chronicling the Emergence of Confused Consensus in Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts, Hollnagel, Woods and Leveson, and normalization of deviance, Diane Vaughan in The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA (3). Reason also said, If eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, then chronic unease is the price of safety (1, p 37). Our challenge as system safety professionals is to be aware of the emergence of signals that warn us of slowly eroding safety margins. This paper will discuss how system safety professionals might better perform in that regard.

Shivers, C. Herbert↗
NASA NTRS2012

Local Staple Food Price Indices in the Age of Biofuels

In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.

Brown, Molly E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The Space Transportation System

The accomplishments and present budget concerns of the Space Transportation System (STS) program are discussed. The Shuttle, with the most advanced operational engine in the world and the largest rocket motor and external tank ever developed, is shown to be a successful, state-of-the-art achievement with enormous capabilities for future exploitation. The readjusted price of $71M (1982$) for a dedicated mission for the period FY 86-FY 88 is nearly twice the price estimated at the beginning of the 12-year program. Additional flights above the sixteen plus missions necessary for the U.S. government's NASA and DOD National Security payloads, are offered to U.S. and foreign, commercial and civil customers, to help recover the marginal costs of anticipated future payloads. Aspects of the present bid scheme, with a $74.0M (82$) minimum bid commencing with FY 1989, are discussed.

Lee, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System

The world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.

complex networks↗
NASA NTRS1991

Final design proposal: Beta Systems-El Toro. A proposal in response to a commercial air transportation study

El Toro is a remotely piloted airplane designed to operate as a commercial aircraft in a fictional 'Aeroworld' where the passengers are ping-pong balls and the distances between cities are on the order of thousands of feet. The present design for El Toro will profitably meet the requirements for operation in Aeroworld with a ticket price comparable the ticket prices of current transportation. The extended range of El Toro allows for numerous flights to be flown before the battery pack needs to be changed. This drastically reduces the operating costs to the airlines, allowing them to charge less for a ticket or else to realize a higher profit margin.

Muenzberg, Steve↗
NASA NTRS1993

Some deformation trends and topographic characteristics of tesserae on Venus

Mapping of dominant trends of deformation and topographic analysis of tesserae reveal that (1) consistant patterns of deformation exist between individual tesserae; (2) regional deformation associated with coronae and rifts commonly overprints tesserae fabrics; (3) normalized area frequency plots of tesserae display a strongly bimodal distribution between -70 to 70 degrees latitude; and (4) the relief at tessera margins is relatively constant and independent of tessera elevation. We are continuing to expand these observations and test their implications for the formation of tesserae and for global models of deformation on Venus.

Price, Maribeth↗
NASA NTRS2003

Enough Is Enough

The spacecraft was nearly integrated and had passed some of its early mechanical and electrical testing. One of its instruments, the Proportional Counter Array (PCA), had a gas leak in one of the five proportional counter modules that made up the array. The science division where the instrument was being developed wanted a gas replenishment system added to assure the PCA would last for the entire mission. Adding a gas replenishment system would mean interrupting spacecraft integration and testing; developing a new subsystem and integrating it onto the spacecraft; modifying all the PCA modules; including a complex integration of the instrument onto the spacecraft; and implementing a more complex performance and environmental test process. It was the wrong answer because it made a simple design more complex and added little value to the mission at a major cost in time and dollars. Our mission couldn't afford the additional budget and schedule risks. XTE was the latest of a long line of projects being managed by my Explorer Program Office, but it was unique in being the first project we had agreed to do for a fixed price. NASA HQ agreed, in return, to provide us with the funding profile we needed to make it happen. We were both trying to break the unhealthy spiral in the Explorer program that saw current missions overrunning and pushing subsequent missions downstream to the point where their science was becoming marginal. The science community was upset and wanted better performance from NASA. I summarized my arguments to the director. The Engineering Directorate had taken responsibility for the spacecraft development when we established XTE as an in-house project at Goddard Space Flight Center, and also was supporting the PCA development. "It adds complexity," I reiterated. "It's a significant cost impact for only a marginal reliability increase". His response was music to my ears, "Jim, I won't stand in your way, but you'll have to convince the scientists and engineers."

Barrowman, James↗
NASA NTRS1980

Photovoltaics as a terrestrial energy source. Volume 2: System value

Assumptions and techniques employed by the electric utility industry and other electricity planners to make estimates of the future value of photovoltaic (PV) systems interconnected with U.S. electric utilities were examined. Existing estimates of PV value and their interpretation and limitations are discussed. PV value is defined as the marginal private savings accruing to potential PV owners. For utility-owned PV systems, these values are shown to be the after-tax savings in conventional fuel and capacity displaced by the PV output. For non-utility-owned (distributed) systems, the utility's savings in fuel and capacity must first be translated through the electric rate structure (prices) to the potential PV system owner. Base-case estimates of the average value of PV systems to U.S. utilities are presented. The relationship of these results to the PV Program price goals and current energy policy is discussed; the usefulness of PV output quantity goals is also reviewed.

Smith, J. L.↗