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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

H2@Scale Resource and Market Analysis

This presentation overviews progress to date on the H2@Scale resource and market analysis work. The work finds, for example, that hydrogen demand of 60 MMT/yr is possible when transportation and industry are considered; resources are available to meet that demand; using renewable resources would reduce emissions and fossil use by over 15%; further impacts are possible when considering synergistic benefits; additional analysis is underway to improve understanding of potential markets and synergistic impacts; and further analysis will be necessary to estimate impacts due to spatial characteristics, feedback effects in the economy, and inertia characteristics.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Market Analysis: Upcycling Natural Gas Into Solid Carbon Products

The purpose of this report is to execute a market analysis to determine the potential market opportunities for natural gas-derived high-value carbon products and their associated applications. Currently, associated gas is released through the process of either venting or flaring. Vented or flared natural gas is presently lost to the atmosphere, despite the fact that it represents a significant resource of both carbon and hydrogen—two products that could have significant value. Transforming some of this underutilized supply into high-cost products could contribute to realizing the full value of United States (U.S.) natural gas resources. The products analyzed in this report are carbon fiber, carbon nanotubes, synthetic graphite, and carbon black. The report also touches on the market opportunities for hydrogen, a by-product of the pyrolysis process.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automatic Fault Detection & Diagnostics: Residential Market Analysis

This report provides an overview of the market potential for automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) in the residential sector, focusing on embedded AFDD in central air conditioners (CAC) and air-source heat pumps (ASHP) as well as the use of smart diagnostic tools to ensure quality installation of CAC/ASHP equipment. The contents include background on AFDD, stakeholder engagement efforts, a technology assessment of AFDD and smart diagnostic tools, residential CAC and ASHP market trends, a characterization of the CAC and ASHP installed base, a synopsis of utility provider programs, and market barriers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Daily Market Analysis Capability and Results

Nuclear energy plays an important role in the U.S. energy mix that will likely need to be maintained or strengthened to achieve significant greenhouse gas reduction. However, maintaining the nuclear portfolio becomes increasingly challenging in the current U.S. energy market since the low price of natural gas and the penetration of subsidized and low-marginal cost variable renewable electricity (VRE) are affecting the profitability of nuclear units. In this context, building new nuclear power plants will require increased competitiveness with reduced capital and O&M costs and increased revenues enabled by changes in market policies or increased flexible operation. Within the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, the System Analysis and Integration Campaign has been acquiring the capability to model energy market economics in order to assist decision makers and nuclear utilities. The methods developed and codes acquired are displayed in Figure 1. The objective of this report is to describe the tools acquired for market analysis, and to illustrate their capabilities and complementarities with an example of analysis.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Grid Integration and Market Analysis of Adjustable-Speed Pumped Storage Hydropower

Variable renewable energy is increasing, affecting variability and range of energy prices and requiring extra power system flexibility. Adjustable-speed pumped storage hydropower (AS-PSH), can provide value to ancillary service markets and take benefit of energy arbitrage. Present results from production cost models showing the effects of adding 50 MW of AS-PSH to three Independent System Operators (ISOs).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

RePED 250: Manufacturing and Market Analysis of High-Temperature Alternators

The novel repetitive pulsed electric drill 250 (RePED 250) has the potential to greatly lower the costs and drilling times of geothermal projects. This tool discharges electric pulses through hard rock formations, shattering the rock in tension and allowing it to be quickly removed. One hurdle in bringing this technology to market is the RePED 250 downhole alternator. This component is essential for supplying power to the electronic drilling tool. There are currently no downhole tools on the market that meet the RePED 250 alternator's high temperature and power requirements. This report focuses on the path to commercialization for this novel alternator technology being developed as part of the RePED 250 project. One aim of this work is to identify the geothermal market size for the RePED 250 alternator, as well as other potential markets for this technology outside of geothermal. The geothermal market is very small, with only approximately 13 wells drilled in the United States each year. The worldwide market is several times this size and growing each year. The ability of the RePED 250 technology to drastically reduce the cost of geothermal projects may also lead to an increase in this market size. Technology developed for the high-temperature, high-power RePED 250 alternator can also be used to create high-temperature and high-power motors. These motors and alternators will have potential applications in oil and gas drilling, a $300 billion dollar industry in the United States alone, as well as in more distant industries such as aircraft, weapon systems, space exploration, and electric vehicles. Other aspects of the RePED 250 alternator's path to commercialization are also analyzed, including the supply chain for production materials and potential manufacturing methods. The supply chain and manufacturing practices for low-temperature motors and alternators are well established and require relatively minor changes for the high-temperature and high-power RePED 250 alternator. Sourcing for high-temperature materials has been identified, as well as potential supply chain risks. These most notably include electrical steel and high-temperature samarium cobalt (SmCo) magnets. Overall, these risks are not expected to be significant at the likely manufacturing scale required for the RePED 250.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

H2@Scale Resource and Market Analysis

The 'H2@Scale' concept is based on the potential for wide-scale utilization of hydrogen as an energy intermediate where the hydrogen is produced from low cost energy resources and it is used in both the transportation and industrial sectors. H2@Scale has the potential to address grid resiliency, energy security, and cross-sectoral emissions reductions. This presentation summarizes the status of an ongoing analysis effort to quantify the benefits of H2@Scale. It includes initial results regarding market potential, resource potential, and impacts of when electrolytic hydrogen is produced with renewable electricity to meet the potential market demands. It also proposes additional analysis efforts to better quantify each of the factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Energy Zone Market Analysis for the Afton Region of New Mexico

This report examines the commercial viability of the Afton solar energy zone (SEZ) in southern New Mexico based on market conditions in 2022. The Bureau of Land Management may designate a SEZ on federal land to expedite environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The purpose of this analysis is to understand whether current market conditions support solar development in the SEZ.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Market Analysis of Microreactors

Microreactors are smaller and simplified versions of nuclear power plants using current generation and advanced nuclear technology designs. The purpose of this report is to assesses the unique capabilities of microreactors and assess potential deployment in specific global markets in the 2030-2050 timeframe, with consideration for regulatory limits. The methods include developing unique microreactor deployment indicators and matching use cases to define future profile markets. Top-down and bottom-up analysis techniques were used to evaluate emerging market trends, derive a range of possible demands, and rank potential markets in 63 countries including current nuclear users and newcomer countries. Deployment is considered from regulatory and planning perspectives. Results indicate significant potential for global deployment of microreactors, but also significant challenges in achieving the technical capacities, meeting regulatory requirements and international accords, achieving competitive costs, and for gaining public acceptance. Profile microreactor markets were identified that include isolated operations, distributed energy, resilient urban applications, marine propulsion, and disaster relief. Market demands could be strong in Western Europe and possibly even the U.S., but particularly strong across Asia and Eastern Europe in isolated operations and distributed energy applications. Build rates in the hundreds of units by 2040 and thousands by 2050 would be needed to attain market penetration at scale.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Energy Zone Market Analysis for the San Luis Valley Region of Colorado

This report examines the commercial viability of solar energy zones (SEZs) in the San Luis Valley of Colorado ("the Valley") based on market conditions in 2022. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) may designate a SEZ on federal land to expedite environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The purpose of this analysis is to understand whether current market conditions support the need for SEZs in the Valley.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microreactor Economic Performance & Market Analysis

This presentation was prepared for the Microreactor Program Stakeholders Workshop on May 12-13, 2021. It supports understanding the market and economic potential for microreactors in the U.S. and internationally by providing: a techno-economic basis for support to industrial microreactor deployment and operation; uncovering emerging market opportunities, informing R&D opportunities, and integrating the research performed by the INL [Boise State/Energy Policy Institute], and the U Alaska Anchorage, U Wisconsin-Madison, and Nuclear Alternatives Project in Puerto Rico.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Use of Statistically Based Rolling Supply Curves for Electricity Market Analysis: A Preliminary Look

In light of the changing electricity resource mixes across the United States, an important question in electricity modeling is how additions and retirements of generation, including additions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could impact markets by changing hourly wholesale energy prices. Instead of using resource-intensive production cost models (PCMs) or building and using simple generator supply curves, this analysis uses a 'top-down' approach based on regression analysis of hourly historical energy and load data to estimate the impact of supply changes on wholesale electricity prices, provided the changes are not so substantial that they fundamentally alter the market and dispatch-order driven behavior of non-retiring units. The rolling supply curve (RSC) method used in this report estimates the shape of the supply curve that fits historical hourly price and load data for given time intervals, such as two-weeks, and then repeats this on a rolling basis through the year. These supply curves can then be modified on an hourly basis to reflect the impact of generation retirements or additions, including VRE and then reapplied to the same load data to estimate the change in hourly electricity price. The choice of duration over which these RSCs are estimated has a significant impact on goodness of fit. For example, in PJM in 2015, moving from fitting one curve per year to 26 rolling two-week supply curves improves the standard error of the regression from 16 dollars/MWh to 6 dollars/MWh and the R-squared of the estimate from 0.48 to 0.76. We illustrate the potential use and value of the RSC method by estimating wholesale price effects under various generator retirement and addition scenarios, and we discuss potential limits of the technique, some of which are inherent. The ability to do this type of analysis is important to a wide range of market participants and other stakeholders, and it may have a role in complementing use of or providing calibrating insights to PCMs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Market analysis for the integration of new power technologies: A case study of the deployment of hybrid fossil-based generator plus energy storage (ES-FE)

This study examines the national landscape of hybridized fossil energy (FE) power plants with energy storage (ES) technologies (“ES-FE”) and presents the compilation of an ES-FE dataset, which includes over 65 ES-FE projects and concepts in the United States, comprising approximately 500 MWh of co-located ES capacity with FE power plants. This study also estimates the economic feasibility of adding ES to existing FE power plants by characterizing the potential revenues that can be generated by the ES component through flexibility and capacity value. The analysis focuses on ES technologies with 2- to 10-h. durations located in four U.S. independent system operators (ISOs): Midcontinent ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), PJM Interconnection (PJM), and California ISO (CAISO), which have +70,000 MW of combined FE power capacity that could add ES. Annual revenues are estimated for the ES component using a what-if-analysis approach, for capacity value, price arbitrage, or ancillary services provision. The results show that annual revenues depend on the end-use storage service, wholesale electricity and capacity market prices, and ES technology operation parameters such as discharging duration and cycling frequency. When performing a sensitivity analysis, ES accrues $7–178/kW-yr. via price arbitrage and ancillary services provision in the four ISOs, and $13–92/kW-yr. when providing capacity value only in MISO and PJM. A cash flow analysis is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of the ES addition using a range of ES costs. The study finds that for most ES technologies considered, these revenues alone are insufficient to achieve economic feasibility. In conclusion, of the 1645 total runs analyzed, 115 had positive NPVs (7%). Therefore, other revenue streams or monetizable benefits are necessary to achieve the break-even point.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Market Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Development Potential on Bureau of Land Management Land in Arizona

This report explores the magnitude of the potential buildout of new solar development on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land in Arizona based on market conditions in 2023. The BLM currently has 18 solar energy zones (SEZs), including three in Arizona, where land has undergone preliminary reviews and is suitable for expedited environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The BLM also administers variance areas that are outside SEZs and may consider right-of-way (ROW) applications for utility-scale solar development on such variance lands. Within variance areas in Arizona, the BLM has further identified Renewable Energy Development Area (REDA) lands that are likely well suited to solar or wind development. The purpose of the analysis reported here is to explore the anticipated extent of new solar development on BLM land in the state by 2035.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen and Solid Carbon Products from Natural Gas: A Review of Process Requirements, Current Technologies, Market Analysis, and Preliminary Techno Economic Assessment

In this paper, we review relevant technologies—primarily thermochemical and plasma conversion processes—that use natural gas to produce solid carbon and hydrogen, and recent research progress and commercial activities. Technical challenges include the high energetic requirements necessary for methane activation and, for some catalytic processes, the separation of solid carbon product from the spent catalyst. We assess current and new carbon product markets that could be served given technological advances, and we discuss technical barriers and potential areas of research to address these needs. We provide preliminary economic analysis where it was concluded that the cost of pyrolytically produced CO2-free hydrogen can be potentially reduced to <$4/kg target levels with the co-production and sale of sufficiently high-value carbon products.

Dagle, Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

sCO 2 Brayton System Market Analysis

Supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycle systems (sCO 2 ) offer potential benefits over traditional steam plants. The changing economics of the electricity sector favors solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). Ultimately, the ability of sCO 2 systems to compete depends on the economics and ability to offer additional benefits to the market, such as the ability for dry cooling and their compact size. Updated results show that the projected LCOE for Brayton systems in the 100 to 300 MWe size range are between ${$}$44.8 and ${$}$56.1/MWh (4.48 and 5.61 cents/kWh). This report presents screening tools for assessing the potential market size and concludes that while at these LCOE estimates sCO 2 systems can compete directly against NGCC, there are many hurdles to commercialization, including the need to demonstrate long-term operations at low-cost and ability to quickly ramp for integration with intermittent resources. Additional customer discovery is necessary to fully understand the ability of this technology to solve customer problems that other technologies cannot.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Energy Storage in Fossil Energy Power Plants (ES-FE) Market Analysis

This analysis consists of identifying the economic signals for the integration of ES-FE concepts in major Independent System Operators (ISOs), such as Mid-Continent (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), California (CAISO), and Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland Power Pool (PJM). This piece of work came from our interest in understanding how and at what level an electricity market would renumerate a fossil energy power plant that integrates energy storage, meaning a fossil power plant that adds any type of energy storage to their power plant.

Pena-Cabra, Ivonne A.↗