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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards cost-competitive middle distillate fuels from ethanol within a market-flexible C2 platform-based biorefinery concept

Ethanol to middle distillates (ETMD) is a promising pathway to produce sustainable liquid fuels to decarbonize the hard-to-electrify transportation sectors due to (1) the abundant sugar/starch and lignocellulosic biomass, (2) the existing deployment scale of fuel ethanol production (similar to 29 billion gallons per year globally), and (3) emerging opportunities in C2+ alcohol synthesis from CO2. Here we report a conceptual market-responsive biorefinery centered around a new ETMD pathway based on one-step ethanol to butene-rich olefins (ETO) over a Cu-Zn-Y/Beta catalyst. Specifically, this ethanol conversion pathway comprises one-step ETO, oligomerization, and hydrotreating. This ETO is distinct from that in the conventional ethanol-to-jet process which is based on two-step ethanol to ethylene and ethylene oligomerization to butenes. Butene-rich olefins can be shifted to butadiene-rich products by simply changing the reaction atmosphere from hydrogen to inert gas over the same ETO catalyst. Leveraging the experimental results, baseline techno-economic analysis (TEA) and sensitivity analysis indicate that the ethanol conversion cost is $0.60 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), with opportunities for further cost reduction via improving the liquid hydrocarbon yield and space velocities, and process optimization on balancing dewatering of ethanol feed prior to the ETO step. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of liquid hydrocarbons derived from corn starch ethanol with butadiene as coproduct is $1.64 per GGE, in the range that is cost competitive with petroleum kerosene-type jet fuel. Projected MFSP for cellulosic ethanol (corn stover) derived hydrocarbons is below $3.00 per GGE and co-production of butadiene further reduces the MFSP to $1.70 per GGE. The Well-to-Wake life-cycle analysis indicates that 85% greenhouse gas emission reduction can be achieved when using corn stover compared to petroleum reference and the associated carbon credits will provide significant economic incentives to favor the cellulosic ethanol-derived hydrocarbon fuels. This study demonstrates a low-cost pathway to middle distillate fuels leveraging existing ethanol infrastructure, where catalysis innovation drives the reduction of process complexity and flexible coproduction of a value-added chemical product.

Zhang, Junyan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co-simulation of transactive energy markets: A framework for market testing and evaluation

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

On Anomaly Detection for Transactive Energy Systems with Competitive Market

Two anomaly-detection criteria are proposed for transactive energy systems with competitive markets. Participants of transactive energy systems seek an optimal power allocation through hybrid economic-control methods to facilitate the integration of various types of distributed energy resources to power distribution systems. In transactive energy systems, every participant is assumed to be a rational entity, and consumers have diminishing marginal utility and suppliers have increasing marginal cost. With the first proposed anomaly-detection criterion, the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility are examined. The impact of line flow constraints is also taken into consideration. Then, the second anomaly-detection criterion is proposed for TESs with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate. The second criterion is more accurate than the first one for TES with marginal cost and marginal utility which change faster than a certain rate, but it requires the knowledge of that rate. Neither criteria requires more data than those necessary to find the optimal power allocation and the market-clear price in a transactive energy system. Therefore, the proposed criteria do not disclose any more data than necessary. As the monotonicity of marginal cost and marginal utility in a TES with competitive markets results in convex objective functions in an optimization problem and strongly convex ones when marginal cost and marginal utility changes faster than a certain rate, the two detection criteria are also applicable to anomaly detection of general convex optimization problems. Simulations are carried out to show the efficacy of the proposed criteria to detect anomalies caused by cyberattacks.

Wang, Peng↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model Formulations: Market clearing models, market design specifications, and dispatch simulation

This document provides various model formulations that will be implemented for the Energy Storage Participation Algorithm pilot competition (ESPA-Comp). This competition will assess the performance of different storage offer algorithms in terms of their ability to maximize the value of storage resources participating under various market designs that vary in the range of complexity of possible storage offers. The model formulations include a general market clearing optimization model and specification to implement it in various market designs. We provide specifications for three market designs to be tested in ESPA-Comp, which we call the two-settlement, multi-settlement, and rolling horizon forward markets. The market designs include different trading frequencies and offer formats. Storage resources participating in the market are provided with primitive values for the resource’s physical capabilities, and they are provided with a storage offer format that their algorithms will be tasked with populating. A detailed physical model is used to assess each storage resource’s ability to maintain its scheduled dispatch according to its state-of-charge, operating temperature, and power conversion efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Price Taker: Conceptual Design and Optimization of Integrated Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Market Surrogates

Future electricity generation systems must be optimized to provide flexibility that counteracts the variability of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources and ensures the reliability and safety of critical infrastructure, including the electric grid. The current state-of-the-art is to co-optimize the design and operation of integrated energy systems (IES) treating historical or predicted time-series electricity prices as fixed parameters. Recent literature has shown the limitations of this price taker assumption, which neglects how IES optimization decisions influence market outcomes. As such, this paper proposes a new optimization formulation that uses machine learning surrogate models, trained from a library of annual market operation simulations, to embed IES market interactions into the co-optimization problem directly. Using a thermal generator example built in the open-source IDAES computational environment, we show that the price taker approach routinely over-predicts annual revenues by 8% or more compared to a validation simulation, where the proposed approach has a typical relative error of 1% or less.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Enhanced Computational Framework for Energy Storage Participation in Transmission Planning with Electricity Market Participation: Dynamic Market Participation Restriction Estimation

In the previous study and report, we developed a computational framework to explore the technical and economic viability of the dual use of pumped storage hydropower (PSH) for both transmission assets and market participation. The rationale for the dual-use application is to improve the resource utilization rate and reduce the cost recovery burden. A PSH-based transmission solution generally has a large capacity, which corresponds to a higher investment cost compared to a traditional line solution. Market participation may allow the PSH asset to offset part of its high investment cost. A critical question is whether it is economically and technically viable to allow dual use of a PSH-based transmission project without jeopardizing transmission system reliability. And a more specific follow-up question is how to improve market participation performance while maintaining transmission reliability. In this study, we extend the computational framework by updating the method to determine transmission service obligation requirements dynamically based on the possibility of the need for transmission service in operation. Specifically, we correlate the need for transmission service with the probability of thermal overloading on a monitored transmission line, which is essentially based on the probability distribution of power flow and its probability of exceeding the line rating based on system dispatch and operational uncertainties. In addition, the need depends on the level of risk that a system operator is willing to take. The higher the risk tolerance, the lower the requirement that the system operator would apply to the PSH project as a transmission asset. The requirements are updated every day before the PSH project determines its market participation strategy. With the updated transmission service requirements, it is expected that a PSH project can serve as a transmission asset when the transmission system is at risk and really needs it, while it can participate in a market with sufficient information and certain restrictions. In this way, the transmission service quality and market participation performance can both be improved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Market Implications of Alternative Operating Reserve Modeling in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Pricing and settlement mechanisms are crucial for efficient resource allocation, investment incentives, market competition, and regulatory oversight. In the United States, Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) adopts a uniform pricing scheme that hinges on the marginal costs of supplying additional electricity. This study investigates the pricing and settlement impacts of alternative reserve constraint modeling, highlighting how even slight variations in the modeling of constraints can drastically alter market clearing prices, reserve quantities, and revenue outcomes. Focusing on the diverse market designs and assumptions in ancillary services by U.S. RTOs, particularly in relation to capacity sharing and reserve substitutions, the research examines four distinct models that combine these elements based on a large-scale synthetic power system test data. Our study provides a critical insight into the economic implications and the underlying factors of these alternative reserve constraints through market simulations and data analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Prosumer Duality on Power Market: The Effect of Market Regulation

Electricity prosumers are energy subsystems that not only consume, but also produce electricity. They are present in distribution level networks as traditional utility customers who have installed distributed energy resources. They are also present in transmission level networks as large conglomerates own both generation assets and large industrial loads. Previous work on the economics of prosumers has demonstrated that prosumers in a market have incentives to behave more competitively compared to producers and consumers in traditional markets. This paper further explores the behavior of prosumers and their response to market policies including the allocation of network losses and the impact of net metering. We extend a Cournot model of a dual prosumer and find that prosumers respond with higher supply quantities if network losses are allocated to demand base. They respond with lower supply quantities if network losses are allocated to supply base. Allocating network losses to demand base also causes equilibrium prices to decline. Markets where prosumers first satisfy their own load and then sell the balance of electricity to the grid have lower quantities and higher prices compared to markets where prosumers buy and sell at locational marginal price.

Tsybina, Eve↗