Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Markov modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CHMMPP: A c++ library for constrained Hidden Markov Models

SAND2024-13027O The CHMMPP: A c++ Library for Constrained Hidden Markov Models (HMM) software supports the analysis of multivariate time series data to detect patterns using HMM. Many applications involve the detection and characterization of hidden or latent states in a complex system using observable states and variables. This software supports inference of latent states integrating both an HMM and application-specific constraints that reflect known relationships in hidden states. The CHMMPP software supports application-specific and generic methods for constrained inference. This includes a framework for customized Viterbi methods, constrained inference of hidden states with A* and integer programming methods, and various constraint-informed methods for learning HMM model parameters. CHMMPP focuses on supporting generic methods that enable the agile expression of complex sets of constraints that naturally arise in many real-world applications.

Hart, William↗
DOE OSTI2024

An FPGA-based hardware accelerator supporting sensitive sequence homology filtering with profile hidden Markov models

Abstract Background Sequence alignment lies at the heart of genome sequence annotation. While the BLAST suite of alignment tools has long held an important role in alignment-based sequence database search, greater sensitivity is achieved through the use of profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs). Here, we describe an FPGA hardware accelerator, called HAVAC, that targets a key bottleneck step (SSV) in the analysis pipeline of the popular pHMM alignment tool, HMMER. Results The HAVAC kernel calculates the SSV matrix at 1739 GCUPS on a $$\sim$$ ∼ $3000 Xilinx Alveo U50 FPGA accelerator card, $$\sim$$ ∼ 227× faster than the optimized SSV implementation in nhmmer . Accounting for PCI-e data transfer data processing, HAVAC is 65× faster than nhmmer’s SSV with one thread and 35× faster than nhmmer with four threads, and uses $$\sim$$ ∼ 31% the energy of a traditional high end Intel CPU. Conclusions HAVAC demonstrates the potential offered by FPGA hardware accelerators to produce dramatic speed gains in sequence annotation and related bioinformatics applications. Because these computations are performed on a co-processor, the host CPU remains free to simultaneously compute other aspects of the analysis pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CHMMPY: A python package for constrained Hidden Markov Models

SAND2025-11909O chmmpy software analyzes multivariate timeseries data to detect patterns. It uses a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and application-specific constraints that reflect known relationships among hidden states to accomplish this. The chmmpy software provides a generic framework for expressing application-specific constraints and supporting constrained HMM inference using optimization solvers. chmmpy is available on GitHub. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unfolding of the Villin Headpiece Domain: Revealing Structural Heterogeneity with Time‐Resolved X‐Ray Solution Scattering and Markov State Modeling

Understanding protein folding pathways is crucial to deciphering the principles of protein structure and function. Here, the unfolding dynamics of the 35‐residue villin headpiece (HP35) and a norleucine‐substituted variant (2F4K) using a combination of experimental and computational techniques is investigated. Time‐resolved X‐ray solution scattering coupled with equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations and Markov state modeling reveals distinct unfolding mechanisms between the two variants: HP35 and 2F4K. Specifically, HP35 exhibits a two‐state unfolding process, whereas an intermediate state is identified for the 2F4K mutant. A Markov state model constructed from simulations is used to map atomic‐level transitions to experimental observations, providing insights into the role of sequence variations in modulating folding pathways. The findings underscore the importance of integrating experimental and computational approaches to unravel protein unfolding mechanisms between heterogenous structural ensembles.

Nijhawan, Adam K. [Department of Chemistry Northwe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic Streamflow Datasets Derived from DOE 9505 for Select Texas Basins

This dataset is generated using a Bayesian Hidden Markov Model trained on the DOE 9505 streamflow projection ensemble. A set of 21,000 streamflow realizations are generated for the Colorado, Sabine, and Trinity river basins in Texas. Separate models are trained either using the full 9505 ensemble or a subset based on three hyperparameters: bias correction, downscaling, and hydrological model.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

De novo atomic protein structure modeling for cryoEM density maps using 3D transformer and HMM

Accurately building 3D atomic structures from cryo-EM density maps is a crucial step in cryo-EM-based protein structure determination. Converting density maps into 3D atomic structures for proteins lacking accurate homologous or predicted structures as templates remains a significant challenge. Here, we introduce Cryo2Struct, a fully automated de novo cryo-EM structure modeling method. Cryo2Struct utilizes a 3D transformer to identify atoms and amino acid types in cryo-EM density maps, followed by an innovative Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to connect predicted atoms and build protein backbone structures. Cryo2Struct produces substantially more accurate and complete protein structural models than the widely used ab initio method Phenix. Additionally, its performance in building atomic structural models is robust against changes in the resolution of density maps and the size of protein structures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NEAR: Neural Embeddings for Amino acid Relationships

Protein language models (PLMs) have recently demonstrated potential to supplant classical protein database search methods based on sequence alignment, but are slower than common alignment-based tools and appear to be prone to a high rate of false labeling. Here, we present NEAR, a method based on neural representation learning that is designed to improve both speed and accuracy of search for likely homologs in a large protein sequence database. NEAR’s ResNet embedding model is trained using contrastive learning guided by trusted sequence alignments. It computes per-residue embeddings for target and query protein sequences, and identifies alignment candidates with a pipeline consisting of residue-level k-NN search and a simple neighbor aggregation scheme. Tests on a benchmark consisting of trusted remote homologs and randomly shuffled decoy sequences reveal that NEAR substantially improves accuracy relative to state-of-the-art PLMs, with lower memory requirements and faster embedding and search speed. While these results suggest that the NEAR model may be useful for standalone homology detection with increased sensitivity over standard alignment-based methods, in this manuscript we focus on a more straightforward analysis of the model’s value as a high-speed pre-filter for sensitive annotation. In that context, NEAR is at least 5x faster than the pre-filter currently used in the widely-used profile hidden Markov model (pHMM) search tool HMMER3, and also outperforms the pre-filter used in our fast pHMM tool, nail.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Guided Identification of PET Hydrolases from Natural Diversity

The enzymatic depolymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is emerging as a leading chemical recycling technology for waste polyester. As part of this endeavor, new candidate enzymes identified from natural diversity can serve as useful starting points for enzyme evolution and engineering. In this study, we improved upon HMM searches by applying an iterative machine learning strategy to identify 400 putative PET-degrading enzymes (PET hydrolases) from naturally occurring homologs. Using high-throughput (HTP) experimental techniques, we successfully expressed and purified >200 enzyme candidates and assayed them for PET hydrolysis activity as a function of pH, temperature, and substrate crystallinity. From this library, we discovered 91 previously unknown PET hydrolases, 35 of which retain activity at pH 4.5 on crystalline material, which are conditions relevant to developing more efficient commercial processes. Notably, four enzymes showed equal to or higher activity than LCC-ICCG, a benchmark PET hydrolase, at this challenging condition in our screening assay, and 11 of which have pH optima <7. Using these data, we identified regions of PETases statistically correlated to activity at lower pH. We additionally investigated the effect of condition-specific activity data on trained machine learning predictors and found a precision (putative hit rate) improvement of up to 30% compared to a Hidden Markov Model alone. Our findings show that by pointing enzyme discovery toward conditions of interest with multiple rounds of experimental and machine learning, we can discover large sets of active enzymes and explore factors associated with activity at those conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Engineering and Application of a Thermostable MHETase for PET Depolymerization

Enzymatic hydrolysis of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) releases mono(2-hydroxyethyl) terephthalate (MHET) as a major product, the accumulation of which can prolong reactor residence times and complicate downstream monomer separations. The use of a MHETase enzyme can enable MHET hydrolysis to the monomers, terephthalic acid and ethylene glycol, but industrial PETases typically operate at thermophilic temperatures and the well-known MHETase from Ideonella sakaiensis is a mesophilic enzyme, thus warranting the development of thermophilic MHETases. Here, we characterize thermostable MHET-active enzymes from a natural diversity screen by applying a hidden Markov model based on the previously reported, archaeal ferulic acid esterase, PET46. We identified enzymes with higher thermostability than PET46 and quantified their MHETase activity in reactions at 70 °C. The crystal structure of MHT077, the homologue with the highest MHETase activity and an apparent melting temperature (T m,app ) of 94.6 °C, informed site saturation mutagenesis in the active site and lid-domain interface. MHT077 exhibited a ∼100-fold slower unfolding rate at 65 °C than PET46, indicating substantially greater kinetic stability. In parallel, we applied evolution-informed design, a probabilistic model that leverages coevolutionary patterns in large multiple sequence alignments, to improve the activity and thermostability of five ferulic acid esterases. One design, EV-MHT043–5 was identified with a comparable thermostability (T m,app = 96.1 °C) and a 3-fold improvement in its MHETase activity relative to the wildtype enzyme, MHT043. Combination variants of beneficial mutations were screened and afforded a variant, MHT077 LFK , which reduced MHET accumulation in bioreactor experiments with postconsumer PET waste. Overall, this study expands the known MHET-hydrolyzing protein scaffolds available for enzymatic PET recycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncovering heterogeneous intercommunity disease transmission from neutral allele frequency time series

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for accurate epidemic forecasting to predict pathogen spread, evolution, and evaluate intervention strategies. Forecast reliability hinges on detailed knowledge of disease transmission across population segments, which may be inferred from contact surveys or mobility data. However, these indirect approaches make it difficult to estimate rare transmissions between socially or geographically distant communities. We show that the steep ramp-up of genome sequencing surveillance during the pandemic can be leveraged to directly identify transmission patterns between geographically defined communities. Our approach uses a hidden Markov model to infer the fraction of infections a community imports from others based on how rapidly allele frequencies in the focal community converge to those in the donor communities. Applying this method to SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data from England and the United States, we uncover networks of intercommunity transmission that reflect geographical relationships while exposing significant long-range interactions. The scaling of importation rate with distance is consistent across both countries, yet weaker than expected based on mobility data, highlighting limitations of indirect inference. We show that transmission patterns can change between waves of variants of concern and analyze how the inferred heterogeneity in intercommunity transmission impacts evolutionary forecasts. While applied here to geographically defined communities, our approach could be applied to those defined by other traits (e.g., age, socioeconomic status), provided time-series data can be stratified accordingly. Overall, our study highlights population genomic time series data as a crucial record of epidemiological interactions, which can be deciphered using tree-free inference methods.

Okada, Takashi [Department of Physics; University ↗