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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Magma intrusion near Volcan Tancitaro: Evidence from seismic analysis

Between May and June 2006, an earthquake swarm occurred near Volcan Tancítaro in Mexico, which was recorded by a temporary seismic deployment known as the MARS network. We located ~1000 events from this seismic swarm. Previous earthquake swarms in the area were reported in the years 1997, 1999 and 2000. We relocate and analyze the evolution and properties of the 2006 earthquake swarm, employing a waveform cross-correlation-based phase repicking technique. Hypocenters from 911 events were located and divided into eighteen families having a correlation coefficient at or above 0.75. 90% of the earthquakes provide at least sixteen phase picks. We used the single-event location code Hypo71 and the P-wave velocity model used by the Jalisco Seismic and Accelerometer Network to improve hypocenters based on the correlation-adjusted phase arrival times. We relocated 121 earthquakes, which show clearly two clusters, between 9–10 km and 3–4 km depth respectively. The average location error estimates are <1 km epicentrally, and <2 km in depth, for the largest event in each cluster. Depths of seismicity migrate upward from 16 to 3.5 km and exhibit a NE-SW trend. The swarm first migrated toward Paricutin Volcano but by mid-June began propagating back toward Volcán Tancítaro. In addition to its persistence, noteworthy aspects of this swarm include a quasi-exponential increase in the rate of activity within the first 15 days; a b-value of 1.47; a jug-shaped hypocenter distribution; a shoaling rate of ~5 km/month within the deeper cluster, and a composite focal mechanism solution indicating largely reverse faulting. As a result, these features of the swarm suggest a magmatic source elevating the crustal strain beneath Volcan Tancítaro.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

MARS: Malleable Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Scheduler

In this paper, we introduce MARS, a new scheduling system for HPC-cloud infrastructures based on a cost-aware, flexible reinforcement learning approach, which serves as an intermediate layer for next generation HPC-cloud resource manager. MARS ensembles the pre-trained models from heuristic workloads and decides on the most cost-effective strategy for optimization. A whole workflow application would be split into several optimizable dependent sub-tasks, then based on the pre- defined resource management plan, a reward will be generated after executing a scheduled task. Lastly, MARS updates the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model based on the reward. MARS is designed to optimize the existing models through reinforcement mechanisms. MARS adapts to the dynamics of workflow applications, selects the most cost-effective scheduling solution among pre-built scheduling strategies (backfilling, SJF, etc.) and self- learning deep neural network model at run-time. We evaluate MARS with different real-world workflow traces. MARS can achieve 5%-60% increased performance compare to state-of-the- art approaches.

Baheri, Betis↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Neural Network-Based Power Mismatch Elimination Strategy for Integrated Solar and ESS AC/DC Systems (MARS)

The multiport autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is a promising concept for the integration of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage system (ESS) to the transmission ac grid and a high-voltage direct current (HVdc) link. The presence of PV and ESS in each arm of the MARS results in uneven distribution of active power among different submodules (SMs), thereby leading to unbalanced SM capacitor voltages and potentially compromising the system stability. Moreover, in the case of partial shadings, shaded PV SMs will suffer from decreased power injections causing power mismatch in the MARS system. To address this issue, a neural-network-based power mismatch elimination (NNPME) strategy is proposed in this article. The proposed NNPME strategy optimizes ESS usage and leverages both dc and ac circulating currents to facilitate power transfer among the SMs, arms, and phases of the MARS system. Simulation and control hardware-in-the-loop (cHIL) experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed NNPME strategy. Compared with the traditional approaches, the proposed NNPME strategy can significantly enhance system efficiency and ensure stable and continuous operation, even in the presence of uneven power distribution within the MARS system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Statistical-learning strategies generate only modestly performing predictive models for urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate: A comparison of conventional and machine-learning methods

Purpose: Given the paucity of available data concerning radiotherapy-induced urinary toxicity, it is important to ensure derivation of the most robust models with superior predictive performance. This work explores multiple statistical-learning strategies for prediction of urinary symptoms following external beam radiotherapy of the prostate. Methods: The performance of logistic regression, elastic-net, support-vector machine, random forest, neural network, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) to predict urinary symptoms was analyzed using data from 754 participants accrued by TROG03.04-RADAR. Predictive features included dose-surface data, comorbidities, and medication-intake. Four symptoms were analyzed: dysuria, haematuria, incontinence, and frequency, each with three definitions (grade ≥ 1, grade ≥ 2 and longitudinal) with event rate between 2.3% and 76.1%. Repeated cross-validations producing matched models were implemented. A synthetic minority oversampling technique was utilized in endpoints with rare events. Parameter optimization was performed on the training data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare performance using sample size to detect differences of ≥0.05 at the 95% confidence level. Results: Logistic regression, elastic-net, random forest, MARS, and support-vector machine were the highest-performing statistical-learning strategies in 3, 3, 3, 2, and 1 endpoints, respectively. Logistic regression, MARS, elastic-net, random forest, neural network, and support-vector machine were the best, or were not significantly worse than the best, in 7, 7, 5, 5, 3, and 1 endpoints. The best-performing statistical model was for dysuria grade ≥ 1 with AUROC ± standard deviation of 0.649 ± 0.074 using MARS. For longitudinal frequency and dysuria grade ≥ 1, all strategies produced AUROC>0.6 while all haematuria endpoints and longitudinal incontinence models produced AUROC<0.6. Conclusions: Logistic regression and MARS were most likely to be the best-performing strategy for the prediction of urinary symptoms with elastic-net and random forest producing competitive results. The predictive power of the models was modest and endpoint-dependent. New features, including spatial dose maps, may be necessary to achieve better models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On an Extensive Late Hydrologic Event in Gale Crater as Indicated by Water‐Rich Fracture Halos

Abstract We analyze spatially pervasive, light‐toned “halos” associated with fractures in a sedimentary unit (Stimson) of Gale crater, Mars, and report a similar network of halos discovered in a separate geologic group (Bradbury). Through a dedicated active neutron measurement campaign, we provide independent confirmation of the water‐rich nature of these features. Together with mineralogical and geochemical data, these features are consistent with abundant hydrated amorphous silica (opal‐A). We suggest that the mineral and amorphous assemblages are indicative of formation under low‐temperature and predominantly low‐pH conditions (passive silica enrichment) with minor contribution of silica (active silica enrichment) from adjacent units. We show that there is significant amorphous silica in the array of sedimentary rocks in Gale crater, allowing them to play a role in an active silica enrichment phase of halo formation. We suggest that the involved alteration event was short lived and our finding of vast halo networks in a distant, older unit implies a more vast network of hydrologic subsurface conduits than previously known. This relatively recent subsurface hydrologic system was present long after the transition from a warm and wet to a cold and dry Martian environment, extending the habitability conditions on Mars to an epoch that is generally considered not favorable for life on the surface. Finally, our bulk H quantification of these features, which ranges from ∼3–6 wt% H 2 O‐equivalent‐H, suggests that the amorphous material in halos hosts ample supplies of readily released water, making them a considerable resource at the otherwise dry Martian equator.

Gabriel, Travis S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformation

We report that widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian ocean. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in the northern plains. However, these shorelines fail to follow an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the notion that they formed via an early ocean and hence to question the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines' deviation from a constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring after the formation of Tharsis, a volcanic province that dominates the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from the equator, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near the equator, meaning that there is no current explanation for the shorelines' deviation from an equipotential that is consistent with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis, instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. In conclusion, our results imply that oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks, and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate of early Mars.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Barometric Pumping Through Fractured Rock: A Mechanism for Venting Deep Methane to Mars' Atmosphere

Abstract Both the source of methane on Mars and the mechanism for transmission from the subsurface to the atmosphere are not fully understood. Previous seepage simulations have invoked relatively shallow subsurface sources to explain observed methane signatures on Mars. We propose that barometric‐pressure pumping through fracture networks could be an effective mechanism for methane transport from the deep subsurface on Mars. Using atmospheric pressure data gathered by Curiosity as input, we simulate methane gas transport from depths of 200 m to the surface. Even with such a deep source, our model reproduces the observed seasonality of methane, and the simulated surface methane fluxes fall within the range of previous estimates derived from atmospheric observations. Because 200 m is the likely minimum hospitable depth for living methanogenic microbes, our fracture network model indirectly reinvigorates the possibility of a microbial source of methane on Mars.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Climate's watermark in the geometry of stream networks

Branching stream networks are a ubiquitous feature of the Earth's surface, but the processes that shape them, and their dependence on the climate in which they grow, remain poorly understood. Research has mainly focused on climatic controls of channel incision rates, while the climatic influence on planform geometry has often been overlooked. In this work, we analyze nearly one million digitally mapped river junctions throughout the contiguous United States and show that branching angles vary systematically with climatic aridity. In arid landscapes, which are thought to be dominated by surface runoff erosion, junction angles average roughly 45° in the driest places. Branching angles are systematically wider in humid regions, averaging roughly 72°, which is the theoretically predicted angle for network growth in a diffusive field such as groundwater seepage. The correlation of mean junction angle with aridity is stronger than with topographic gradient, downstream concavity, or other geometric factors that have been proposed as controls of junction angles. Thus, it may be possible to identify channelization processes from stream network geometry in relict landscapes, such as those on Mars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Surrogate Model Selection for Design Space Approximation And Surrogatebased Optimization

Surrogate models are used to map input data to output data when the actual relationship between the two is unknown or computationally expensive to evaluate for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation and surrogate based optimization. This work evaluates the performance of eight surrogate modeling techniques for design space approximation and surrogate based optimization applications over a set of generated datasets with known characteristics. With this work, we aim to provide general rules for selecting an appropriate surrogate model form solely based on the characteristics of the data being modeled. Furthermore, the computational experiments revealed that, in general, multivariate adaptive regression spline models (MARS) and single hidden layer feed forward neural networks (ANN) yielded the most accurate predictions over the design space while Random Forest (RF) models most reliably identified the locations of the optimums when used for surrogate-based optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling Heavy/Medium-Duty Fuel Consumption Based on Drive Cycle Properties

This paper presents multiple methods for predicting heavy/medium-duty vehicle fuel consumption based on driving cycle information. A polynomial model, a black box artificial neural net model, a polynomial neural network model, and a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model were developed and verified using data collected from chassis testing performed on a parcel delivery diesel truck operating over the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT), City Suburban Heavy Vehicle Cycle (CSHVC), New York Composite Cycle (NYCC), and hydraulic hybrid vehicle (HHV) drive cycles. Each model was trained using one of four drive cycles as a training cycle and the other three as testing cycles. By comparing the training and testing results, a representative training cycle was chosen and used to further tune each method. HHDDT as the training cycle gave the best predictive results, because HHDDT contains a variety of drive characteristics, such as high speed, acceleration, idling, and deceleration. Among the four model approaches, MARS gave the best predictive performance, with an average absolute percent error of -1.84% over the four chassis dynamometer drive cycles. To further evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models, the approaches were first applied to real-world data. MARS outperformed the other three approaches, providing an average absolute percent error of -2.2% of four real-world road segments. The MARS model performance was then compared to HHDDT, CSHVC, NYCC, and HHV drive cycles with the performance from Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim). The results indicated that the MARS method achieved a comparative predictive performance with FASTSim.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting concrete compressive strength using hybrid ensembling of surrogate machine learning models

This study aims to implement a hybrid ensemble surrogate machine learning technique in predicting the compressive strength (CS) of concrete, an important parameter used for durability design and service life prediction of concrete structures in civil engineering projects. For this purpose, an experimental database consisting of 1030 records has been compiled from the machine learning repository of the University of California, Irvine. The database was used to train and validate four conventional machine learning (CML) models, namely Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Linear and Non-Linear Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS-L and MARS-C), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). Subsequently, the predicted outputs of CML models were combined and trained using ANN to construct the Hybrid Ensemble Model (HENSM). It is observed that the proposed HENSM produces higher predictive accuracy compared to the CML models used in the present study. The predictive performance of all models for CS prediction was compared using the testing dataset and it is found that the HENSM model attained the highest predictive accuracy in both phases. Based on the experimental results, the newly constructed HENSM model is very potential to be a new alternative in handling the overfitting issues of CML models and hence, can be used to predict the concrete CS, including the design of less polluting and more sustainable concrete constructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Count Grave Sites for Cemetery Observation Models With Satellite Imagery

Understanding how people occupy open spaces is important for research in support of population modeling, policy, national security, emergency response, and sustainability. For the past decade, there has been an increase in research toward capturing and reporting population dynamics and patterns of life at the building level and in some open public spaces such as cemeteries and parks. This is done through observation models developed from local sociocultural information acquired at various spatiotemporal scales to inform night, day, and episodic population occupancy estimates (people/1000 sq ft). Sociocultural information for cemeteries and parks is scarcely available and often collected manually. The process is not only marred by inconsistencies but is laborious and time consuming. In this study, we leverage convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and satellite imagery to derive grave site counts as proxy variables to support scalable and accurate sociocultural data required in a population observation model. Through a hybrid workflow (weak localization plus regression model), we characterize a large scale automation process to counting of grave sites. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of proposed workflow using out-of-data set large satellite imagery and establish its broader impact on cemetery observation models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enabling Realistic Communications Evaluations for ADMS

Increasing penetration levels of inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution systems are creating challenges in system operation. Currently, wired or proprietary wireless communications are used by advanced distribution management systems (ADMS) to detect the state of the system and control the DERs for optimal operation. Wireless communications are an alternative solution that can enable connectivity between the dispersed assets used in distribution system applications. As demand for the seamless integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) continues to increase, proper networking and communications systems are becoming important to support the DER infrastructure. This report summarizes validation of a private wireless LTE network in a laboratory environment. The purpose of this work is to 1) demonstrate the effectiveness of private wireless LTE communication for grid applications and 2) provide a means of evaluating latency and overall performance of wireless communication in grid applications. First, private wireless LTE communication was validated in a direct transfer trip relaying scenario as an example of one-way communications using grid equipment. This study provided a baseline understanding of the variation in latency for seven different kinds of wireless scenarios shown in Figure A below. As expected, weak (attenuated) wireless signal-based communication yielded the widest ranges in latency. When higher priority was set for the trip signal communication, this resulted in lower latency in communication timing. In the final phase of this project, the private wireless LTE network was validated using two-way communications in an advanced distribution management system (ADMS) testbed which was developed in the ESIF at NREL. The purpose of this was to study the impact of wireless communication on grid performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solutions Are the Problem: Ordered Two-Dimensional Covalent Organic Framework Films by Chemical Vapor Deposition

Covalent organic frameworks (COFs) are a promising class of crystalline polymer networks that are useful due to their high porosity, versatile functionality, and tunable architecture. Conventional solution-based methods of producing COFs are marred by slow reactions that produce powders that are difficult to process into adaptable form factors for functional applications, and there is a need for facile and fast synthesis techniques for making crystalline and ordered covalent organic framework (COF) thin films. In this work, we report a chemical vapor deposition (CVD) approach utilizing co-evaporation of two monomers onto a heated substrate to produce highly crystalline, defect-free COF films and coatings with hydrazone, imine, and ketoenamine COF linkages. Further, this all-in-one synthesis technique produces highly crystalline, 40 nm–1 μm-thick COF films on Si/SiO2 substrates in less than 30 min. Crystallinity and alignment were proven by using a combination of grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and successful conversion of the monomers to produce the target COF was supported by Raman spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and UV–vis measurements. Additionally, we used atomic force microscopy (AFM) to investigate the growth mechanisms of these films, showing the coalescence of triangular crystallites into a smooth film. To show the wide applicability and scope of the CVD process, we also prepared crystalline ordered COF films with imine and ketoenamine linkages. These films show potential as high-quality size exclusion membranes, catalytic platforms, and organic transistors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

VLBI Data Processing on Coronal Radio-sounding Experiments of Mars Express

The ESA’s Mars Express solar corona experiments were performed at two solar conjunctions in the years 2015 and 2017 by a number of radio telescopes in the European VLBI Network. This paper presents the methods to measure the frequency and phase fluctuations of the spacecraft radio signal, and the applications to study the characteristics of the plasma turbulence effects on the signal at a single station and at multiple stations via cross correlation. The power spectra of the frequency fluctuations observed between 4.9 and 76.3 R {sub s} have a power-law shape close to a Kolmogorov spectrum over the frequency interval ν {sub lo} < ν < ν {sub up}, where the nominal value of ν {sub lo} is set to 3 mHz and ν {sub up} is in the range of 0.03–0.15 Hz. The rms of the frequency fluctuations is presented as a function of the heliocentric distance. Furthermore, we analyze the variations of the electron column density fluctuations at solar offsets 4.9 R {sub s} and 9.9 R {sub s} and the cross-correlation products between the VLBI stations. The power density of the differential fluctuations between different stations decreases at ν < 0.01 Hz. Finally, the fast flow speeds of solar wind >700 km s{sup -1} are derived from the cross correlation of frequency fluctuations at ν < 0.01 Hz. The fast flow speeds of solar wind correspond to the high heliolatitude of the coronal region that the radio rays passed. The VLBI observations and analysis methods can be used to study the electron column density fluctuations and the turbulence at multiple spatial points in the inner solar wind by providing multiple lines of sight between the Earth and the spacecraft.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning and artificial intelligence to extend EFIT equilibrium reconstruction

Recent progress in the application of machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to improve the Equilibrium Fitting (EFIT) code equilibrium reconstruction for fusion data analysis applications is presented. A device-independent portable core equilibrium solver capable of computing or reconstructing equilibrium for different tokamaks has been created to facilitate adaptation of ML/AI algorithms. A large EFIT database comprising of DIII-D magnetic, motional Stark effect, and kinetic reconstruction data has been generated for developments of EFIT model-order-reduction (MOR) surrogate models to reconstruct approximate equilibrium solutions. Furthermore, a neural-network MOR surrogate model has been successfully trained and tested using the magnetically reconstructed datasets with encouraging results. Other progress includes developments of a Gaussian process Bayesian framework that can adapt its many hyperparameters to improve processing of experimental input data and a 3D perturbed equilibrium database from toroidal full magnetohydrodynamic linear response modeling using the Magnetohydrodynamic Resistive Spectrum - Feedback (MARS-F) code for developments of 3D-MOR surrogate models.

Gaussian process↗