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DOE OSTI2026

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nutrient Limitation Induces a Productivity Decline From Light‐Controlled Maximum

Abstract Nutrient impacts on productivity in stream ecosystems can be obscured by light limitation imposed by canopy cover and water turbidity, thereby creating uncertainties in linking nutrient and productivity regimes. Evaluations of nutrient limitations are often based on a response ratio (RR) quantifying productivity stimulation above ambient levels given augmented nutrient supply. This metric neglects the primacy of light effects on productivity. We propose an alternative approach to quantify nutrient limitations using a “decline ratio” (DR), which quantifies the productivity decline from the maximum established by light availability. The DR treats light as the first‐order control and nutrient depletion as a disturbance causing productivity decline, allowing separation of nutrient and light influences. We used DR to assess nutrient diffusing substrate (NDS) experiments with three nutrients (nitrogen [N], phosphorus [P], iron [Fe]) from five Greenland streams during summer, where light is not limited due to the lack of canopy and low turbidity. We tested two hypotheses: (a) productivity maximum (i.e., highest chlorophyll‐ a among NDS treatments) is controlled by light and (b) DR depends on both light and nutrients. The productivity maximum was strongly predicted by light ( R 2 = 0.60). The productivity decline induced by N limitation (i.e., DR N ) was best explained by light availability when parameterized with either dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration ( R 2 = 0.79) or N:Fe ratio ( R 2 = 0.87). These predictions outperformed predictions of RR for which light was not a significant factor. Reversing the perspective on nutrient limitation from “stimulation above ambient” to “decline below maximum” provides insights into both light and nutrient impacts on stream productivity.

Shin, Yuseung [School of Natural Resources and Env↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlations between maximum mass of neutron stars and the nuclear matter properties and the constraints from PSR J0740+6620 and GW190814

The correlations between the maximum mass of neutron stars (NSs) with the properties of nuclear matter at saturation density ρ 0 , i.e., the incompressibility K 0 , the symmetry energy E sym (ρ 0 ), and its slope L(ρ 0 ), the isoscalar effective mass m$^{*}_{s0}$, and the parameter f I , have been investigated using several sets of Skyrme interactions based on the momentum-dependent (MD) Skyrme interactions SAMi-J27 (soft), SAMi-J31 (stiff), and SAMi-J35 (super-stiff), as well as the momentum-independent (MI) Skyrme interaction SkT5. Only one physical quantity is varied at a time for a given set of Skyrme interactions. It is found that the maximum mass of NSs has (1) a strong positive linear correlation with K 0 for stiff and super-stiff equation of state (EOS) and no correlation with K 0 for soft EOS; (2) a negative logarithm correlation with the symmetry energy E sym (ρ 0 ) for all the EOSs; (3) a positive logarithm correlation with the slope L(ρ 0 ) for all the EOSs; (4) a positive logarithm correlation with the parameter f I for MD EOS; (5) a negative power-law correlation with m$^{*}_{s0}$ for MD EOS. Based on these established correlations, the constraints to the nuclear matter properties from the mass of PSR J0740+6620 and GW190814 are investigated. Furthermore, we find that while rotation enhances the maximum mass of NSs, it does not effect the underlying correlations between the maximum mass and the aforementioned nuclear matter parameters.

Zhou, M. [Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an (China)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic and maximum entropy modeling of chemical reaction systems: Characteristics and comparisons to mass action kinetic models

We demonstrate and characterize a first-principles approach to modeling the mass action dynamics of metabolism. Starting from a basic definition of entropy expressed as a multinomial probability density using Boltzmann probabilities with standard chemical potentials, we derive and compare the free energy dissipation and the entropy production rates. We express the relation between entropy production and the chemical master equation for modeling metabolism, which unifies chemical kinetics and chemical thermodynamics. Because prediction uncertainty with respect to parameter variability is frequently a concern with mass action models utilizing rate constants, we compare and contrast the maximum entropy model, which has its own set of rate parameters, to a population of standard mass action models in which the rate constants are randomly chosen. We show that a maximum entropy model is characterized by a high probability of free energy dissipation rate and likewise entropy production rate, relative to other models. We then characterize the variability of the maximum entropy model predictions with respect to uncertainties in parameters (standard free energies of formation) and with respect to ionic strengths typically found in a cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximum Switching Throughput Density Estimator

SAND2024-11125O The Maximum Switching Throughput Density Estimator software performs a simple analysis that estimates the maximum logic switching throughput density that’s achieved in various CMOS technology nodes on the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems. This software utilizes simple device models and optimization techniques, performing a simple sweep over a range of possible logic supply voltages, and analytically calculating the maximum switching frequency for the given logic voltage that meets the power density constraint. It does this by using simple models of power dissipation in conventional and fully adiabatic switching. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Frank, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

The maximum likelihood estimation is a general estimation procedure. It is often compared to estimation procedures like the ordinary least squares regression or generalized method of moments, to name a few. We discuss some basics about the maximum likelihood estimation, its advantages and disadvantages, and provide an example application to a gamma distribution function.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Some Basics

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-dimensional maximum-entropy phase space tomography using normalizing flows

Particle accelerators generate charged-particle beams with tailored distributions in six-dimensional position-momentum space (phase space). Knowledge of the phase space distribution enables model-based beam optimization and control. In the absence of direct measurements, the distribution must be tomographically reconstructed from its projections. In this paper, we highlight that such problems can be severely underdetermined and that entropy maximization is the most conservative solution strategy. We leverage —invertible generative models—to extend maximum-entropy tomography to six-dimensional phase space and perform numerical experiments to validate the model's performance. Our numerical experiments demonstrate consistency with exact two-dimensional maximum-entropy solutions and the ability to fit complicated six-dimensional distributions to large measurement sets in reasonable time. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Near-complete extraction of maximum stored energy from large-core fibers using coherent pulse stacking amplification of femtosecond pulses

High field science relies on ultrashort pulse lasers with multi-joule pulse energies for studying light–matter interactions under extreme conditions and for driving particle accelerators and secondary radiation sources of x rays, gamma rays, neutrons, positrons, muons, and protons. Next-generation laser drivers will require a 10 3 -10 4 times increase in pulse repetition rates, producing multi-joule energies at multi-kilowatt average powers to enable practical applications in nuclear engineering, advanced materials, medicine, biology, homeland security, and high-energy physics. Spatially coherently combined femtosecond fiber lasers are recognized as a pathway to these next-generation drivers, with significant practical advantages including high efficiency and the possibility of compact integration. However, chirped pulse amplification in fibers is capable of extracting only a small fraction (usually ~1%) of the maximum stored energy. Here we demonstrate near-complete maximum stored energy extraction with low accumulated nonlinearity from a large-core fiber amplifier using coherent pulse stacking amplification. We have amplified a 81-pulse stacking burst in a 85 µm core chirally coupled core Yb-doped fiber, extracting up to 9.5 mJ (~90% of stored energy) with < 4.5 radians of accumulated nonlinear phase, temporally combined this burst into a single pulse, and achieved 4.2 mJ pulses of 313 fs bandwidth-limited duration after compression. This represents, to our knowledge, the highest energy extracted and compressed into a femtosecond pulse from a single fiber amplifier, enabling approximately two orders of magnitude size reduction of future high-energy coherently spatially combined fiber laser arrays.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient First-Order Algorithms for Large-Scale, Non-Smooth Maximum Entropy Models with Application to Wildfire Science

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are a class of statistical models that use the maximum entropy principle to estimate probability distributions from data. Due to the size of modern data sets, MaxEnt models need efficient optimization algorithms to scale well for big data applications. State-of-the-art algorithms for MaxEnt models, however, were not originally designed to handle big data sets; these algorithms either rely on technical devices that may yield unreliable numerical results, scale poorly, or require smoothness assumptions that many practical MaxEnt models lack. In this paper, we present novel optimization algorithms that overcome the shortcomings of state-of-the-art algorithms for training large-scale, non-smooth MaxEnt models. Our proposed first-order algorithms leverage the Kullback–Leibler divergence to train large-scale and non-smooth MaxEnt models efficiently. For MaxEnt models with discrete probability distribution of n elements built from samples, each containing m features, the stepsize parameter estimation and iterations in our algorithms scale on the order of O(mn) operations and can be trivially parallelized. Moreover, the strong ℓ1 convexity of the Kullback–Leibler divergence allows for larger stepsize parameters, thereby speeding up the convergence rate of our algorithms. To illustrate the efficiency of our novel algorithms, we consider the problem of estimating probabilities of fire occurrences as a function of ecological features in the Western US MTBS-Interagency wildfire data set. Our numerical results show that our algorithms outperform the state of the art by one order of magnitude and yield results that agree with physical models of wildfire occurrence and previous statistical analyses of wildfire drivers.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of the Number of Tree Searches on Maximum Likelihood Inference in Phylogenomics

Maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic inference is widely used in phylogenomics. As heuristic searches most likely find suboptimal trees, it is recommended to conduct multiple (e.g., 10) tree searches in phylogenetic analyses. However, beyond its positive role, how and to what extent multiple tree searches aid ML phylogenetic inference remains poorly explored. Here, we found that a random starting tree was not as effective as the BioNJ and parsimony starting trees in inferring the ML gene tree and that RAxML-NG and PhyML were less sensitive to different starting trees than IQ-TREE. We then examined the effect of the number of tree searches on ML tree inference with IQ-TREE and RAxML-NG, by running 100 tree searches on 19,414 gene alignments from 15 animal, plant, and fungal phylogenomic datasets. We found that the number of tree searches substantially impacted the recovery of the best-of-100 ML gene tree topology among 100 searches for a given ML program. In addition, all of the concatenation-based trees were topologically identical if the number of tree searches was ≥10. Quartet-based ASTRAL trees inferred from 1 to 80 tree searches differed topologically from those inferred from 100 tree searches for 6/15 phylogenomic datasets. Lastly, our simulations showed that gene alignments with lower difficulty scores had a higher chance of finding the best-of-100 gene tree topology and were more likely to yield the correct trees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Canopy Structure Exhibits Linear and Nonlinear Links to Biome‐Level Maximum Light Use Efficiency

Maximum light use efficiency (ε max ) represents a plant's capacity to convert light into carbon during photosynthesis. Although prior studies have explored ε max variations between sunlit and shaded leaves or its temporal ties to canopy structure, the spatial relationship between biome-level ε max (ε biome ) and biome structure remains poorly understood. We analysed data from 320 eddy covariance sites (~855 site-years) with satellite-derived near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) and leaf area index (LAI). We introduced NIRvN (NIRv/LAI) to isolate architectural effects from leaf quantity. Site-level ε max was calculated and aggregated by biome to derive ε biome . Results show ε biome rises nonlinearly with NIRv and LAI, saturating at high LAI, with crops and tropical evergreen forests deviating from this trend. Conversely, ε biome decreases linearly with increasing NIRvN, indicating that biomes with greater NIR scattering efficiency exhibit lower ε biome . These results enhance understanding of structural influences on carbon uptake across global biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Principle of Maximum Conformality Correctly Resolves the Renormalization-Scheme-Dependence Problem

In this paper, we clarify a serious misinterpretation and consequent misuse of the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which also can serve as a mini-review of PMC. In a recently published article, P. M. Stevenson has claimed that “the PMC is ineffective and does nothing to resolve the renormalization-scheme-dependence problem”, concluding incorrectly that the success of PMC predictions is due to the PMC being a “laborious, ad hoc, and back-door” version of the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity (PMS). We show that such conclusions are incorrect, deriving from a misinterpretation of the PMC and an overestimation of the applicability of the PMS. The purpose of the PMC is to achieve precise fixed-order pQCD predictions, free from conventional renormalization schemes and scale ambiguities. We demonstrate that the PMC predictions satisfy all the self-consistency conditions of the renormalization group and standard renormalization-group invariance; the PMC predictions are thus independent of any initial choice of renormalization scheme and scale. The scheme independence of the PMC is also ensured by commensurate scale relations, which relate different observables to each other. Moreover, in the Abelian limit, the PMC dovetails into the well-known Gell-Mann–Low framework, a method universally revered for its precision in QED calculations. Due to the elimination of factorially divergent renormalon terms, the PMC series not only attains a convergence behavior far superior to that of its conventional counterparts but also deftly curtails any residual scale dependence caused by the unknown higher-order terms. This refined convergence, coupled with its robust suppression of residual uncertainties, furnishes a sound and reliable foundation for estimating the contributions from unknown higher-order terms. Anchored in the bedrock of standard renormalization-group invariance, the PMC simultaneously eradicates the factorial divergences and eliminates superfluous systematic errors, which inversely provides a good foundation for achieving high-precision pQCD predictions. Consequently, owing to its rigorous theoretical underpinnings, the PMC is eminently applicable to virtually all high-energy hadronic processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Miscanthus × giganteus increases soil maximum water holding capacity compared to maize

Soil ecosystem services, like the ability to store water, have been depleted after a century of conventional, annual cropping, and perennial crops offer a solution to this and other agricultural environmental issues. We assessed the impact of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus), a perennial biomass crop, on soil water holding capacity and structure compared to continuous maize (Zea mays L.) at two sites in Iowa. After three growing seasons, we measured the following: (1) maximum water holding capacity (MWHC) with and without soil structure, and (2) total porosity and pore size distribution (PSD) via micro-computed tomography (microCT). Miscanthus increased MWHC by 14.7% across both sites relative to maize (p = 0.002), and we attributed this to structural changes due to the lack of a crop effect when measured on structureless soils. No significant changes were detected in soil organic matter, texture, total porosity, or PSD that could explain the increase in MWHC under miscanthus. Our findings suggest that the increases in MWHC are primarily due to structural changes rather than increases in soil organic matter or porosity (at least porosity detectable by microCT). This study highlights miscanthus' potential to enhance soil water storage and underscores the need for further investigation to clarify the mechanisms through which this biomass crop influences soil structural properties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Equipartition and the Temperature of Maximum Density of TIP4P/2005 Water

Here, we simulate TIP4P/2005 water in the temperature range of 257 to 318 K with time-steps δ = 0.25, 0.50, 1.00, 2.00, and 4.00 fs. The density–temperature behavior obtained using 0.25 or 0.50 fs is in excellent agreement with each other but differs from those obtained using time steps that have been shown earlier to lead to a breakdown of equipartition. For δt = 0.25 or 0.50 fs, the temperature of maximum density (TMD) is 277.15 K and the density value is in close agreement with experiments. For δt = 1.00 fs, the TMD is 277.15 K, but the density value is shifted higher. For the other time steps considered here, the TMD is shifted to progressively lower values for longer time steps, a trend that holds for different thermostat/barostat combinations. Enhancing the water–water dispersion interaction, as has been recommended for simulating disordered proteins in TIP4P/2005, degrades the description of the liquid–vapor phase envelope. We present a simple physically transparent explanation that highlights the separation of the time scales between translational and rotational motion. We also develop a metric, χ, that we term the equipartition anomaly, to detect equipartition violations in simulations that include molecules that are treated as rigid objects. Calculating χ is shown to be straightforward and sensitive to equipartition violations. A key takeaway from this study is that using sufficiently short time steps (≤0.5 fs) to preserve equipartition is essential for obtaining meaningful liquid water properties and for producing reliable simulation data, as correct ensemble sampling is fundamental to ensure reproducibility across codes and simulation algorithms.

Asthagiri, Dilipkumar N. [Oak Ridge National Labor↗