Empirical relations between seasonal changes in meridional temperature gradients and meridional fluxes of heat
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Stone, P. H.↗
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Tropical Expansion Driven by Poleward Advancing Midlatitude Meridional Temperature Gradients
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Midlatitude Cloud Systems
In contrast to the tropics and subtropics, the middle latitudes are characterised by large meridional temperature gradients, created as a consequence of differential radiative heating between high and low latitudes. These meridional temperature gradients often concentrate in relatively narrow baroclinic zones that become unstable to wave-like perturbations called baroclinic eddies, or more commonly baroclinic storms or midlatitude cyclones. Baroclinic storms constitute the primary source of poleward energy transport at midlatitudes, which is accomplished through contrasting transports of warm air masses poleward (warm fronts) and cold air masses equatorward (cold fronts). Baroclinic storms also flux momentum into midlatitude regions, driving a region of enhanced westerly winds from the surface to the upper troposphere called the eddy-driven jet stream.
Midlatitude clouds↗
Dynamics of Massive Atmospheres
The many recently discovered terrestrial exoplanets are expected to hold a wide range of atmospheric masses. Here the dynamic-thermodynamic effects of atmospheric mass on atmospheric circulation are studied using an idealized global circulation model by systematically varying the atmospheric surface pressure. On an Earth analog planet, an increase in atmospheric mass weakens the Hadley circulation and decreases its latitudinal extent. These changes are found to be related to the reduction of the convective fluxes and net radiative cooling (due to the higher atmospheric heat capacity), which, respectively, cool the upper troposphere at mid-low latitudes and warm the troposphere at high latitudes. These together decrease the meridional temperature gradient, tropopause height and static stability. The reduction of these parameters, which play a key role in affecting the flow properties of the tropical circulation, weakens and contracts the Hadley circulation. The reduction of the meridional temperature gradient also decreases the extraction of mean potential energy to the eddy fields and the mean kinetic energy, which weakens the extratropical circulation. The decrease of the eddy kinetic energy decreases the Rhines wavelength, which is found to follow the meridional jet scale. The contraction of the jet scale in the extratropics results in multiple jets and meridional circulation cells as the atmospheric mass increases.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
The Hadley and Rossby regimes in a spherical atmosphere
The properties of the steady Hadley and Rossby regimes for a thermally forced rotating fluid on a sphere are studied. The two layer modified geostrophic model is employed which allows for thermal advection by the divergent wind and time dependent static stability. Heating processes are parameterized using the Newtonian approximation and Rayleigh friction is accounted for. The equations are transformed to spectral form using spherical harmonics and then truncated retaining a simple axisymmetric state and initial, one wave. A time independent Hadley circulation is obtained which is neutral to axisymmetric disturbances but unstable to wave like perturbations for intermediate values of the meridional temperature gradient, indicating the existence of both an upper and lower symmetric Hadley regime. An analytical solution for the steady Rossby circulation is determined for values of the meridional temperature gradient where the Hadley regime is unstable. Linear perturbation theory is used to show that within the steady Rossby regime two or more waves cannot exist simultaneously.
Feldstein, S. B.↗
Seasonally and Regionally Dependent Shifts of the Atmospheric Westerly Jets under Global Warming
A distinct feature of the atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing is the poleward shift of the zonal-mean westerly jet. The dynamical mechanisms of the zonal-mean poleward jet shift have been extensively studied in literature. At seasonal/regional scales, however, the westerly jets can shift equatorward, such as in the early-summer Asia–Pacific region, the late-winter America–Atlantic region, and the winter/spring east Pacific. These equatorward jet shifts imply climate impacts distinct from those of the poleward shifts, yet their causes are not well understood. In this work, based on a hierarchy of coupled, prescribed-SST, and aquaplanet simulations, we attribute the seasonal/regional equatorward jet shifts to the enhanced tropical upper-level warming (ETUW), which arises from both the tropical moist adiabat and the enhanced equatorial surface warming. By steepening the meridional temperature gradient in the subtropical upper-to-middle level and assisted by positive eddy feedback, the ETUW increases the zonal wind equatorward of the climatological jet. When the regional/seasonal meridional temperature gradients (or equivalently the westerly jets) are weak and peak close to the tropics, the ETUW effect overcomes the poleward jet-shift mechanisms and leads to the equatorward jet shifts. This climatological-state dependency is consistently seen in the decomposed jet responses to uniform warming and surface warming pattern, and further demonstrated through idealized aquaplanet experiments with designed climatological states. For uniform warming, the ETUW arising from moist adiabat makes the general poleward jet shifts insignificant in the aforementioned favorable regions/seasons. For warming pattern, the ETUW from enhanced equatorial warming drives substantial equatorward jet shifts in these favorable seasons/regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global and Zonal-Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth
Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet-gets-wetter, dry-gets-drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data-modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal-mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid- (30°–60°N/S) and high-latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation-evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter-model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy-derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation-induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.
Margot J. Cramwinckel↗
The Role of Land‐Atmosphere Feedbacks in Midlatitude Wintertime Surface Temperature Variability
Accurately representing synoptic near-surface temperature variability is crucial to predict weather extremes, yet models remain biased. Existing studies primarily attribute wintertime midlatitude near-surface temperature variability to tropospheric large-scale advection, assuming minimal land influence. However, nudging the model's circulation toward observations yields little improvement in wintertime temperature variance over Northern Hemisphere land, suggesting that land-atmosphere interactions also warrant attention. We introduce a new scaling framework for temperature variance that incorporates local land-atmosphere feedbacks. Comparing our framework to the mixing length approach—which links temperature variance to the meridional temperature gradient and air parcel displacement (mixing length)—shows that land-atmosphere feedbacks are inherently embedded in the mixing length, a connection previously overlooked. Roles of land–atmosphere feedbacks are evaluated via model experiments with perturbed circulation, land, or both. We find that longwave radiative damping dominates temperature variance responses over meridional temperature gradient when both land and circulation are perturbed.
atmosheric science↗
Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate
Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs
As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Baroclinic adjustment
A detailed comparison is presented of the actual shear in the atmosphere with the critical shear given by the two-layer model of Phillips (1954), in which there is a critical temperature gradient separating stable conditions from baroclinically unstable ones. A very simple parameterization of the effect of eddy fluxes on atmospheric temperature is suggested, where the parameterization includes beta effects. The parameterization is illustrated by applying it in a one-dimensional heat-balance climate model. Enhancement of the eddy flux in a continuous atmosphere under supercritical conditions is stressed. This enhancement leads to a negative feedback between the meridional eddy flux of heat and the meridional temperature gradient. The feedback restricts gradients to values near the critical value, a process referred to as baroclinic adjustment. This should facilitate the development of simple climate models involving feedbacks associated with both the meridional vertical temperature structure.
Stone, P. H.↗
Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere
Numerical models and numerical analyses of observations were used to improve the understanding of the physical processes important in global weather and climate. Results from a study of the effect of baroclinic waves on mid-latitude vertical temperature structure show that the waves' vertical eddy heat flux tend to eliminate the potential vorticity gradient near the steering level by causing the static stability to decrease rapidly with height in the lower troposphere above the boundary layer. An empirical study of the relationship between eddy heat fluxes and the meridional temperature gradient has been completed. The results indicate that the feedback in the flux-gradient system is comparable to dissipation on all time scales between the synoptic and the seasonal. The definition of the Eliassen-Palm flux and the Eliassen-Palm and non-acceleration theorems has been generalized to include eddy forcing of condensation. Calculations based on the generalized diagnostics showed that the annual mean eddy forcing of the zonal mean zonal wind is two and one half times stronger when the condensation effects are included.
Stone, P. H.↗
Parametric study of large-scale eddy properties. II - The zonal scale
The paper studies the average zonal wavenumber in relation to theoretical and experimental consideration not taken into account by Srivatsangam (1976b). A result of the laboratory experiments with rotating cylindrical annuli is the inverse relationship between the horizontal temperature gradient and the azimuthal wavenumber. Such a relationship is sought in the atmosphere in order to delineate in which belt, if anywhere, there is a similarity between the atmosphere and the laboratory experiments. Linear baroclinic theory reveals the existence of a functional dependence between the zonal wavelength of the most rapidly amplifying waves and the static stability. Results pertaining to the dependence of the average zonal wavenumber on the meridional temperature gradient along with results on the correlation between the average zonal wavenumber and static stability are presented.
Srivatsangam, S.↗
Diagnostic calculations of the circulation in the Martian atmosphere
The circulation of the martian atmosphere during late southern summer is inferred from observed atmospheric temperature and dust distributions. We use global maps of temperature and dust optical depth (approximately 0-60 km) retrieved from a subset of the Mariner 9 IRIS thermal emission spectra spanning L(sub s) equals 343-348 deg. This thermal structure is characterized by a reversed meridional temperature gradient at altitudes above about 40 km, and temperatures that decrease from equator to pole at lower altitudes. Zonal-mean zonal winds are derived from the zonally averaged temperatures assuming gradient wind balance and midlatitude westerly jets with velocities of 80-90 m s(exp -1) near 50 km; in the southern tropics the winds are easterly with velocities of 40 m s(exp -1) near 50 km. The north-south atmospheric transport includes contributions from both the zonal mean meridional circulation and large-scale waves.
Santee, Michelle↗
The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies
Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments.
Branscome, Lee E.↗
Role of Easterly Waves in the Maintenance of the African Easterly Jet
About fifty percent of all hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean form within African easterly waves (AEW). Many previous studies have indicated that these waves result from combined barotropic-baroclinic instability of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The AEJ is in turn believed to be due to the strong temperature gradient between the very warm Sahara Desert and the cooler Sahel and Gulf of Guinea to the south. Zonally averaged latitude-pressure cross-sections of summertime zonal winds over Africa show the AEJ as a 8-12 m/s jet centered at 600-700 mb near 15 N. Such cross-sections also show a weaker southern hemisphere easterly jet near 5-150S, monsoonal westerlies centered beneath the AEJ, and upper tropospheric features such as the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) near 30N and the subtropical westerly jet near 35ON . Thomcroft and Blackburn performed zonally symmetric simulations that showed that the effect of thermal wind balance over the observed low level meridional temperature gradient over northern Africa is particularly important in the formation of the AEJ. They also found that in order to reproduce some of the other aforementioned features of the summertime climatological wind field over Africa it is necessary to include the effects of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) convective heating. While the diabatic effects of Saharan and ITCZ heating tend to strengthen the AEJ, AEW remove energy from the AEJ, thereby weakening it. In this study we take the next step towards understanding the maintenance of the AEJ by including the effects of AEW.
Ferreira, Rosana Nieto↗
Contributions of Different Combinations of the IPO and AMO to Recent Changes in Winter East Asian Jets
Recent concurrent shifts of the East Asian polar-front jet (EAPJ) and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in the boreal winter have raised concerns, since they could result in severe weather events over East Asia. However, the possible mechanisms are not fully understood. In this study, the roles of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are investigated by analyzing reanalysis data and model simulations. Results show that combinations of opposite phases of the IPO and AMO can result in significant shifts of the two jets during 1920–2014. This relationship is particularly evident during 1999–2014 and 1979–98 in the reanalysis data. A combination of a negative phase of the IPO (-IPO) and a positive phase of the AMO (+AMO) since the late 1990s has enhanced the meridional temperature gradient and the Eady growth rate and thus westerlies over the region between the two jets, but weakened them to the south and north of the region, thereby contributing to the equatorward and poleward shifts of the EAPJ and EASJ, respectively. Atmospheric model simulations are further used to investigate the relative contribution of -IPO and +AMO to the jet shifts. The model simulations show that the combination of -IPO and +AMO favors the recent jet changes more than the individual -IPO or +AMO. Finally, under a concurrent -IPO and +AMO, the meridional eddy transport of zonal momentum and sensitive heat strengthens, and more mean available potential energy converts to the eddy available potential energy over the region between the two jets, which enhances westerly winds there.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Role of ocean coupling in the weakening of the extratropical storm tracks from Arctic sea ice loss
Abstract Within the changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have been projected to shift poleward and expand eastward. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks arise from a variety of sometimes competing effects on the region's baroclinicity. Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient, hence weakening the storm track, while low-latitude warming has the opposite effect, and surface-amplified warming at high latitudes reduces static stability. To determine the mechanisms driving these competing changes, we use a hierarchy of models with different levels of ocean-atmosphere coupling, using forcings from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to assess the role of Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances and sharpens the weakening of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks in response to Arctic sea ice loss, that surface turbulent heat flux modulates the intensity of the weakening, and that local ocean dynamics controls the meridional location of the response. A moist isentropic diagnostic of the atmospheric overturning circulation shows that most of the weakening of the storm tracks and its associated changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) arise from a weakening of the transient eddy mass flux. Poleward of the storm tracks, the AHT also decreases, but through weakened effective stratification rather than weakening mass fluxes, an effect which occurs even in the absence of ocean dynamical coupling.
Audette, Alexandre (ORCID:0000000163321088)↗