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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Metamodels for Computer-Based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations

The use of statistical techniques to build approximations of expensive computer analysis codes pervades much of todays engineering design. These statistical approximations, or metamodels, are used to replace the actual expensive computer analyses, facilitating multidisciplinary, multiobjective optimization and concept exploration. In this paper we review several of these techniques including design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We survey their existing application in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of statistical approximation techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multiobjective Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Using Pareto Differential Evolution and Generalized Response Surface Metamodels

Differential Evolution (DE) is a simple, fast, and robust evolutionary algorithm that has proven effective in determining the global optimum for several difficult single-objective optimization problems. The DE algorithm has been recently extended to multiobjective optimization problem by using a Pareto-based approach. In this paper, a Pareto DE algorithm is applied to multiobjective aerodynamic shape optimization problems that are characterized by computationally expensive objective function evaluations. To improve computational expensive the algorithm is coupled with generalized response surface meta-models based on artificial neural networks. Results are presented for some test optimization problems from the literature to demonstrate the capabilities of the method.

Madavan, Nateri K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Shifting Data Collection from a Fixed to an Adaptive Sampling Paradigm

For domains where data are difficult to obtain due to human or resource limitations, an emphasis is needed to efficiently explore the dimensions of information spaces to acquire any given response of interest. Many disciplines are still making the transition from brute force, dense, full factorial exploration of their information spaces to a more efficient design of experiments approach; the latter being in use successfully for many decades in agricultural and automotive applications. Although this transition is still incomplete, groundwork must be laid for incorporating the next generation of algorithms to adaptively explore the information space in response to data collected, as well as any resulting empirical models (i.e., metamodels). The methodology in the present work was to compare metamodel quality using a fixed sampling technique compared to an adaptive sampling technique based on metamodel variance. In order to quantify metamodeling errors, a delta method was used to provide quantitative model variance estimates. The present methodology was applied to a design space with an air-breathing engine performance response. It was shown that competitive metamodel quality with lower associated error could be achieved for an adaptive sampling technique for the same level of effort as a fixed, a priori sampling technique.

Axdahl, Erik L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of Interval Predictor Models to Space Radiation Shielding

This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Decision Making Methodology in Support of the Business Rules Lifecycle

The business rules that underlie an enterprise emerge as a new category of system requirements that represent decisions about how to run the business, and which are characterized by their business-orientation and their propensity for change. In this report, we introduce a decision making methodology which addresses several aspects of the business rules lifecycle: acquisition, deployment and evolution. We describe a meta-model for representing business rules in terms of an enterprise model, and also a decision support submodel for reasoning about and deriving the rules. The possibility for lifecycle automated assistance is demonstrated in terms of the automatic extraction of business rules from the decision structure. A system based on the metamodel has been implemented, including the extraction algorithm. This is the final report for Daniela Rosca's PhD fellowship. It describes the work we have done over the past year, current research and the list of publications associated with her thesis topic.

Wild, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Probabilistic Approach to Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection for Affordable Transport Concepts

Most grant goals were accomplished over the course of the grant, albeit only partial success was achieved in applying ASDL s existing advanced design methods to HAVOC. The limited success in applying ASDL's advanced design methods occurred due to: fundamental 20 of 197 limitations in the RSM metamodeling process used; the highly computationally intensive nature of HAVOC as compared to many other advanced system synthesis and sizing codes; and the highly curved nature of low I(sub sp) rocket system spaces. These challenges encountered during the grant led to ongoing efforts in more efficient and robust sequential metamodeling/surrogate optimization based advanced design methods which are expected to overcome all of the challenges encountered with RSM during the grant. Other achievements over the course of the grant included the documentation of the existing HAVOC cost module and formulation of new cost estimation relationships in support of APS analysis of 3rd Gen RLV. Further achievements beyond the scope of the grant as originally defined were also achieved such as HAVOC code and portability improvements, historical propulsion performance and reliability regression relationships, and new visualization routines to vacilitate visualization of HAVOC DOE case file results.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Model-Drive Architecture for Agent-Based Systems

The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) approach uses a platform-independent model to define system functionality, or requirements, using some specification language. The requirements are then translated to a platform-specific model for implementation. An agent architecture based on the human cognitive model of planning, the Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is selected for the implementation platform. The resulting Cougaar MDA prescribes certain kinds of models to be used, how those models may be prepared and the relationships of the different kinds of models. Using the existing Cougaar architecture, the level of application composition is elevated from individual components to domain level model specifications in order to generate software artifacts. The software artifacts generation is based on a metamodel. Each component maps to a UML structured component which is then converted into multiple artifacts: Cougaar/Java code, documentation, and test cases.

Gradanin, Denis↗
NASA NTRS2010

A UML Profile for State Analysis

State Analysis is a systems engineering methodology for the specification and design of control systems, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The methodology emphasizes an analysis of the system under control in terms of States and their properties and behaviors and their effects on each other, a clear separation of the control system from the controlled system, cognizance in the control system of the controlled system's State, goal-based control built on constraining the controlled system's States, and disciplined techniques for State discovery and characterization. State Analysis (SA) introduces two key diagram types: State Effects and Goal Network diagrams. The team at JPL developed a tool for performing State Analysis. The tool includes a drawing capability, backed by a database that supports the diagram types and the organization of the elements of the SA models. But the tool does not support the usual activities of software engineering and design - a disadvantage, since systems to which State Analysis can be applied tend to be very software-intensive. This motivated the work described in this paper: the development of a preliminary Unified Modeling Language (UML) profile for State Analysis. Having this profile would enable systems engineers to specify a system using the methods and graphical language of State Analysis, which is easily linked with a larger system model in SysML (Systems Modeling Language), while also giving software engineers engaged in implementing the specified control system immediate access to and use of the SA model, in the same language, UML, used for other software design. That is, a State Analysis profile would serve as a shared modeling bridge between system and software models for the behavior aspects of the system. This paper begins with an overview of State Analysis and its underpinnings, followed by an overview of the mapping of SA constructs to the UML metamodel. It then delves into the details of these mappings and the constraints associated with them. Finally, we give an example of the use of the profile for expressing an example SA model.

Murray, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interpolant Improvements and Lessons Learned

This presentation is for the OpenMDAO workshop 2022 and updates users on recent improvements to interpolant methods. Specifically, we discuss computational improvements, visualization capabilities, and suggested best practices for using interpolants. The term interpolants is used synonymously with metamodels and surrogate models. The goal of the presentation is to increase adoption of efficient interpolant methods and increase users’ awareness to built-in features within OpenMDAO.

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling NASA’s Procedural Requirement Processes - Implications for Digital Future

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has an ongoing Digital Transformation effort and to leverage and showcase the power of Digital Transformation, an effort is underway to develop an integrated, datacentric, model representing NASA’s key process requirements. The task was divided into three phases: As Is modeling, Analysis, and To Be Planning. As part of this effort, a team has completed the first Phase I of the modeling task and is nearing completion of the second phase. This effort will capture the key elements as requirements, responsibilities, allocations, roles, products, and associated lifecycle elements. The scope of modeling included NASA’s NPR 7120.5 (Project and Program Management), NPR 7123.1 (Systems Engineering) and NPRs 8705.2 (Risk classification for Robotic Missions) and 8705.4 (Human-Rating Requirements for Space Missions). This paper will summarize the approach, scope, parsing patterns applied, metamodel, and associated workflows for the As-Is modeling. It will also summarize the results and insights gleaned during that phase, including the review process. These insights have informed the analysis and will be discussed. The analysis modeling phase will also be summarized including how the stakeholders were engaged, how the common elements were handled and dispositioned, and will also describe some of the plans for the future of NASA NPDs and NPRs.

Systems Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2025

PSE-Based Aerodynamic Flow Transition Prediction Using Automated Unstructured CFD Integration

Accurate, robust, and efficient prediction of transition in viscous flows is a significant challenge in computational fluid dynamics. We present a coupled, high-fidelity, iterative approach that leverages the FUN3D flow solver and the LASTRAC stability code to predict transition in low-disturbance environments, initiated by the linear growth of boundary-layer instability modes. Our method integrates the ability of FUN3D to compute mixed laminar-transitional-turbulent mean flows via transition-sensitized Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the ability of LASTRAC to perform linear stability analysis, all within an automated framework that requires no intermediate user involvement. Unlike conventional frameworks that rely on classical stability theory or reduced-order metamodels, our approach employs the parabolized stability equations to provide more accurate and reliable estimates of disturbance growth for multiple instability mechanisms, including Tollmien-Schlichting, Kelvin-Helmholtz, and crossflow modes. By accounting for the effects of mean-flow nonparallelism as well as the surface curvature, this approach lays the foundation for improved N-factor correlations for transition onset prediction in a broad class of flows. We apply this method to three distinct flow configurations: 1) flow over a zero-pressure-gradient flat plate, 2) the NLF-0416 airfoil with both natural and separation-induced transitions, and 3) a 6:1 prolate spheroid, where transition is primarily driven by crossflow instability. For the two-dimensional cases, a formulated intermittency distribution is used to model the transition zone in between the laminar and fully turbulent flows. The results include comparisons with experimental measurements, similar numerical approaches, and transport-equations-based models, demonstrating good agreement in surface pressure coefficients, transition onset locations, and skin-friction coefficients for all three configurations. Besides contributing a couple of new insights into boundary-layer transition in these canonical cases, this study provides a powerful tool for transition modeling in both research and design applications in aerodynamics.

Transition Prediction↗