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At least 19 records

Two Strengths of Ordinary Chondritic Meteoroids as Derived from Their Atmospheric Fragmentation Modeling

The internal structure and strength of small asteroids and large meteoroids is poorly known. Observation of bright fireballs in the Earth’s atmosphere can explore meteoroid structure by studying meteoroid fragmentation during the flight. Earlier evaluations showed that the meteoroid’s strength is significantly lower than that of the recovered meteorites. We present a detailed study of atmospheric fragmentation of seven meteorite falls, all ordinary chondrites, and 14 other fireballs, where meteorite fall was predicted but the meteorites, probably also ordinary chondrites, were not recovered. All observations were made by the autonomous observatories of the European Fireball Network and include detailed radiometric light curves. A model, called the semiempirical fragmentation model, was developed to fit the light curves and decelerations. Videos showing individual fragments were available in some cases. The results demonstrated that meteoroids do not fragment randomly but in two distinct phases. The first phase typically corresponds to low strengths of 0.04–0.12 MPa. In two-thirds of cases, the first phase was catastrophic or nearly catastrophic with at least 40% of mass lost. The second phase corresponds to 0.9–5 MPa for confirmed meteorite falls and somewhat lower strengths, from about 0.5 MPa, for smaller meteoroids. All of these strengths are lower than the tensile strengths of ordinary chondritic meteorites cited in the literature, 20–40 MPa. We interpret the second phase as being due to cracks in meteoroids and the first phase as a separation of weakly cemented fragments, which reaccumulated at the surfaces of asteroids after asteroid collisions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the Altitude Distribution of Meteor Head Echoes Observed with HPLA Radars: Implications for the Radar Detectability of Meteoroid Populations

The altitude distribution of meteors detected by a radar is sensitive to the instrument’s response function and can thus provide insight into the physical processes involved in radar measurements. This, in turn, can be used to determine the rate of ablation and ionization of the meteoroids and ultimately the input flux on Earth. In this work, we model the radar meteor head echo altitude distribution for three High Power and Large Aperture radar systems, by considering meteoroid populations from the main cometary family sources. In this simulation, we first use the results of a dynamical model of small meteoroids impacting Earth’s upper atmosphere to model the incoming mass, velocity, and entry angular distributions. We then combine these with the Chemical Ablation Model and establish the meteoroid ionization rates as a function of mass, velocity, and entry angle in order to determine the altitude at which these radars should detect the produced meteors and the portion of produced meteors from each population that are detected by these radars. We explore different sizes of head plasma as well as the possible effects on radar scattering of the head echo aspect sensitivity. We find that the modeled altitude distributions are generally in good agreement with measurements, particularly for ultra-high-frequency radars. In addition, our results indicate that the number of particles from Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) required to fit the observations is lower than predicted by astronomical models. It is not clear yet if this discrepancy is due to the overprediction of JFC meteoroids by dynamical models or due to unaccounted physical processes in the treatment of ablation, ionization, and detections of meteoroids as they pass through Earth’s atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of a Fine-Scale Layered Structure of the Atmosphere on Infrasound Signals from Fragmenting Meteoroids

We investigate the influence of a fine-scale (FS) layered structure in the atmosphere on the propagation of infrasound signals generated by fragmenting meteoroids. Using a pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) approach, we model broadband acoustic signals from point sources at altitudes of 35–100 km. The presence of FS fluctuations in the stratosphere (37–45 km) and the lower thermosphere (100–120 km) modifies ray trajectories, causing multiple arrivals and prolonged signal durations at ground stations. In particular, meteoroids fragmenting at 80–100 km can produce two distinct thermospheric arrivals beyond 150 km range, while meteoroids descending to 50 km or below yield weak, long-lived arrivals within the acoustic shadow zone via antiguiding propagation and diffraction. Comparison with observed infrasound data confirms that FS-layered inhomogeneities can account for multi-arrival “N-waves,” broadening potential interpretations of meteoroid signals. The results also apply to other atmospheric-entry objects, such as sample return capsules, emphasizing how FS structure impacts shock wave propagation. In conclusion, our findings advance understanding of wavefield evolution in a layered atmosphere and have broad relevance for global infrasound monitoring of diverse phenomena (e.g., re-entry capsules, rocket launches, and large-scale explosions).

Aeroacoustics↗

ANALYZING METEOROID FLIGHTS USING PARTICLE FILTERS

Fireball observations from camera networks provide position and time information along the trajectory of a meteoroid that is transiting our atmosphere. The complete dynamical state of the meteoroid at each measured time can be estimated using Bayesian filtering techniques. A particle filter is a novel approach to modeling the uncertainty in meteoroid trajectories and incorporates errors in initial parameters, the dynamical model used, and observed position measurements. Unlike other stochastic approaches, a particle filter does not require predefined values for initial conditions or unobservable trajectory parameters. The Bunburra Rockhole fireball, observed by the Australian Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in 2007, is used to determine the effectiveness of a particle filter for use in fireball trajectory modeling. The final mass is determined to be 2.16±1.33 kg with a final velocity of 6030±216 m s{sup −1}, similar to previously calculated values. The full automatability of this approach will allow an unbiased evaluation of all events observed by the DFN and lead to a better understanding of the dynamical state and size frequency distribution of asteroid and cometary debris in the inner solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Decade of Sporadic Meteoroid Mass Distribution Indices in the Southern Hemisphere Derived from SAAMER’s Meteor Observations

We present determinations of the meteoroid differential mass index, s, using over a decade of meteor observations from the Southern Argentina Agile MEteor Radar (SAAMER). For this, we employ an autonomous statistical technique to determine this parameter from the measured radar echo amplitudes. Unlike previous studies, we examine the role of the system noise in the determination of this parameter and found that if not taken into account appropriately, the results can yield significant over estimations of the mass index. In general we found that a value of s = 2.0 represents SAAMER’s results in general agreement with recent studies performed in the northern hemisphere. We explore both the index interannual and seasonal variability and, unlike previous studies, we found them to be constant, except during the presence of the Southern δ Aquariids meteor shower which is so strong that it dominates the meteor counts when present. Our study suggests that using the maximum echo amplitude for these studies is not ideal as it can be biased by many factors which make the inaccuracies larger than the precision estimated by the fitting routine. A method that results in a more direct estimate of the electron line density would be required which takes into account range, gain pattern, system noise, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Meteoroid Stream of Comet C/1961 T1 (Seki) and Its Relation to the December ρ-Virginids and γ-Sagittariids

We answer the question of whether long-period comet C/1961 T1 (Seki) is the parent body of a meteor shower observed in Earth’s atmosphere. We model discrete parts of a meteoroid stream associated with this comet and follow the orbital evolution of its particles via a numerical integration of their orbits. The gravitational perturbations of major planets and the Poynting–Robertson effect, which influences the motion of the particles, are taken into account. We predict two showers which are related to C/1961 T1. One of these showers was identified with the December ρ-Virginids, #502. This identification confirms an earlier suggested relationship between the shower and the comet. The second predicted shower was identified with the γ-Sagittariids, #657. The radiant areas of both showers are symmetrical in respect to the apex of Earth’s heliocentric motion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Dynamic Trajectory Fit to Multisensor Fireball Observations

Meteorites with known orbital origins are key to our understanding of solar system formation and the source of life on Earth. Fireball networks have been developed globally in a unified effort to record and ultimately retrieve these cosmic samples. However, the accuracy of the determined orbit and the likelihood of meteorite recovery depend directly on the accuracy of the chosen meteoroid triangulation method. There are three leading techniques for meteoroid triangulation discussed in the literature: the method of planes, the straight-line least-squares method, and the multiparameter fit method. Here we describe an alternative method to meteoroid triangulation, called the dynamic trajectory fit. This approach uses the meteoroid’s 3D dynamic equations of motion to fit a realistic trajectory directly to multisensor line-of-sight observations. This method has the ability to resolve fragmentation events, fit systematic observatory timing offsets, and determine mass estimates of the meteoroid along its observable trajectory. Through a comprehensive Monte Carlo analysis of over 100,000 trajectory simulations, we find this new method to more accurately estimate meteoroid trajectories of slow entry events (<25 km s{sup −1}) and events observed from low convergence angles (<10°) compared to existing meteoroid triangulation techniques. Additionally, we triangulate an observed fireball event with visible fragmentation using the various triangulation methods to show that the proposed dynamic trajectory fit implementing fragmentation to best match the captured multisensor line-of-sight data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Formation of Organic Compounds Through Meteoritic Atmospheric Shock

This document is a Final Technical Report for DoE award DE-SC0023375 “Formation of Organic Compounds Through Meteoritic Atmospheric Shock”. The document includes a summary of topics studied, specific tasks completed, challenges, and results from the project. The main goal of this project was to investigate the production of organic molecules and/or complex inorganic precursor molecules in a plasma environment reminiscent of the environment surrounding meteoroids during atmospheric entries. The specific hypothesis tested in this project was that meteoroid ablation during the entry and the chemical reactions in the meteoroid plasma tail could have produced significant amounts of organics or precursor inorganics in the Early Earth’s atmosphere. Investigation of these processes is essential in understanding the origins of life on Earth and the search for life beyond our planet. This project was focused on a set of experiments conducted at the Utilizing the DIII-D tokamak in San Diego, CA. The experiments aimed to study the interaction of carbonaceous and silica materials (typically found in meteoroids) with mixtures of hot plasma gases (mimicking atmospheric entry conditions. The material samples and gas mixtures were selected to investigate the synthesis of the organic compound urea – a key ingredient in the origin of life – or one of its precursor, the complex inorganic compound ammonia.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulations of Hypervelocity Impact Plasmas

The space environment is fraught with complex plasmas spanning a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of space plasma research has focused on large-scale changes in the ambient plasma and fields from the Sun to the Earth’s atmosphere, driven primarily by the solar wind. Yet one particular type of space plasma, which forms from a hypervelocity impact (HVI), remains poorly understood. Hypervelocity impactors include both meteoroids and space debris. Meteoroids are naturally occurring objects in space that travel between 11 and 72.8 km/s and originate primarily from comets and asteroids. In contrast, space debris are human-made objects with speeds typically < 11 km/s. Hypervelocity impactors routinely hit spacecraft, yet the physics behind the formation of the plasma and the dynamics of its expansion remain largely unknown. The complexity of this phenomenon necessitates a research approach that includes both experimental studies and numerical simulation in order to understand the underlying physical processes that occur upon formation and expansion of the impact plasma. Our research has focused on providing a comprehensive understanding of plasma generated by hypervelocity impacts by meteoroids and space debris on spacecraft in order to characterize the behavior of the expanding plasma and its interactions with the ambient environment. Previously. we conducted experimental campaigns at a dust accelerator facility that can accelerate particles up to 60 km/s, which is representative of meteoroid speeds, and at a light gas gun facility that can accelerate larger projectiles up to 7 km/s, which is representative of orbital debris. The experiments included plasma, optical and radio frequency (RF) sensors in order to understand the dynamics and associated RF emission resulting from hypervelocity plasmas. For this research, we developed and applied machine learning algorithms to identify which type of impactor would produce RF and physics-based models to determine the source of the RF. This was a one-year research program that resulted in 2 refereed journal publications (uploaded separately).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Experiments and Simulations of Hypervelocity Impact Plasmas: Final Report

The space environment is fraught with complex plasmas spanning a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of space plasma research has focused on large-scale changes in the ambient plasma and fields from the Sun to the Earth’s atmosphere, driven primarily by the solar wind. Yet one particular type of space plasma, which forms from a hypervelocity impact, remains poorly understood. Hypervelocity impactors include both meteoroids and space debris. Meteoroids are naturally occurring objects in space that travel between 11 and 72.8 km/s and originate primarily from comets and asteroids. In contrast, space debris are human-made objects with speeds typically < 11 km/s. Hypervelocity impactors routinely hit spacecraft, yet the physics behind the formation of the plasma and the dynamics of its expansion remain largely unknown. The complexity of this phenomenon necessitates a research approach that includes both experimental studies and numerical simulation in order to understand the underlying physical processes that occur upon formation and expansion of the impact plasma. Our research has focused on providing the first comprehensive understanding of plasma generated by hypervelocity impacts by meteoroids and space debris on spacecraft in order to characterize the behavior of the expanding plasma and its interactions with the ambient environment. We conducted experimental campaigns at a dust accelerator facility that can accelerate particles up to 60 km/s, which is representative of meteoroid speeds, and at a light gas gun facility that can accelerate larger projectiles up to 7 km/s, which is representative of orbital debris. The experiments included plasma, optical and radio frequency (RF) sensors in order to understand the dynamics and associated RF emission resulting from hypervelocity plasmas. Furthermore, we combined the collected data with results from numerical simulations using particle-in-cell (PIC) and smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques. Using results from both experimental measurements and simulations, we addressed the following outstanding science questions: 1) What are the properties of hypervelocity impact plasmas? 2) What conditions cause impact plasmas to create RF emission and what is the power dependence on frequency? 3) How does the ambient environment around the spacecraft, including the background magnetic and electric fields and plasma density, influence the hypervelocity impact plasmas?

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Review of Infrasound and Seismic Observations of Sample Return Capsules since the End of the Apollo Era in Anticipation of the OSIRIS-REx Arrival

Advancements in space exploration and sample return technology present a unique opportunity to leverage sample return capsules (SRCs) towards studying atmospheric entry of meteoroids and asteroids. Specifically engineered for the secure transport of valuable extraterrestrial samples from interplanetary space to Earth, SRCs offer unexpected benefits that reach beyond their intended purpose. As SRCs enter the Earth’s atmosphere at hypervelocity, they are analogous to naturally occurring meteoroids and thus, for all intents and purposes, can be considered artificial meteors. Furthermore, SRCs are capable of generating shockwaves upon reaching the lower transitional flow regime, and thus can be detected by strategically positioned geophysical instrumentation. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer) SRC is one of only a handful of artificial objects to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere from interplanetary space since the end of the Apollo era and it will provide an unprecedented observational opportunity. This review summarizes past infrasound and seismic observational studies of SRC re-entries since the end of the Apollo era and presents their utility towards the better characterization of meteoroid flight through the atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Historical Bolide Infrasound Dataset (1960–1972)

We present the first fully curated, publicly accessible archive of infrasonic records from ten large bolide events documented by the U.S. Air Force Technical Applications Center’s global microbarometer network between 1960 and 1972. Captured on analog strip-chart paper, these waveforms predate modern digital arrays and space-based sensors, making them a unique window on meteoroid activity in the mid-twentieth century. Prior studies drew important scientific conclusions from the records but released only limited artifacts, chiefly period–amplitude tables and unprocessed scans, leaving the underlying data inaccessible for independent study. The present release transforms those limited excerpts into a research-ready resource. By capturing ten large events in the mid-20th century, the dataset constitutes a critical reference point for assessing bolide activity before the advent of modern space-based and digital ground-based monitoring. The multi-year coverage and worldwide distribution of events provide a valuable reference for comparing past and more recent detections, facilitating assessments of long-term flux and the dynamics of acoustic wave propagation in Earth’s atmosphere. The dataset’s availability in a consolidated format ensures straightforward access to waveforms and derived measurements, supporting a wide range of scientific inquiries into bolide physics and infrasound monitoring. By preserving these historical acoustic observations, the collection maintains a significant record of mid-20th-century meteoroid entries. It thereby establishes a basis for further refinement of impact hazard evaluations, contributes to historical continuity in atmospheric observation, and enriches the study of meteoroid-generated infrasound signals on a global scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database

Fireballs (bolides) are high-energy luminous phenomena produced when meteoroids and small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, often resulting in fragmentation or complete disintegration accompanied by significant energy release. The resulting bolide light curves capture temporal brightness variations as these objects traverse increasingly dense atmospheric layers, providing essential information on meteoroid entry dynamics, fragmentation behavior, and atmospheric energy deposition processes. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies’ (CNEOS) continuously expanding fireball database offers a globally comprehensive archive of bolide events, including light curves and associated metadata. Events associated with infrasound detections allow direct correlations between acoustic signatures and light curve features, therefore enabling detailed analyses of fragmentation dynamics and energy deposition. Here, we introduce Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer (BLADE), a robust and high-fidelity framework specifically designed to analyze bolide light curves for objects detected from space. BLADE incorporates a processing pipeline integrating Savitzky–Golay filtering, prominence-based peak detection, and gradient analysis, enabling systematic identification and classification of fragmentation events and their associated energy release characteristics. Preliminary results demonstrate that BLADE reliably distinguishes distinct bolide behaviors, providing an objective, scalable methodology for characterization and analysis of large bolide light curve data sets. This foundational work establishes a novel pathway for advanced bolide research, with promising applications in planetary defense and global atmospheric monitoring. Future research should adopt an integrative approach combining CNEOS optical data with complementary infrasound measurements, further clarifying relationships between bolide energy deposition and acoustic signatures, thus refining our understanding of meteoroid and asteroid atmospheric entry processes.

Asteroids↗

Characterization of Infrasonic Signatures of Earth-Grazing Fireballs as Analogues to Hypersonic Vehicles (Final Report)

Accurate detection, discrimination, and characterization of high-altitude hypersonic events using infrasonic monitoring are critical to planetary defense and global strategic surveillance. This report synthesizes recent advances achieved through rigorous analysis of infrasonic signatures from natural meteoroids, emphasizing shallow entry-angle meteoroids as essentially proxies for artificial hypersonic systems. Meteoroids naturally encompass diverse velocities, trajectories, altitudes, and fragmentation behaviors, enabling systematic validation of empirical period–yield relationships, waveform morphology classifiers, and trajectory-induced back-azimuth deviation models. Integration of adaptive array-processing enhancements within Cardinal software further extends infrasonic detection sensitivity and signal classification reliability. Collectively these advances, based solely on infrasonic signatures or limited optical data, offer robust methodologies for distinguishing natural from artificial hypersonic sources, significantly reducing event geolocation uncertainties and refining source-function determination. The outcomes detailed herein lay foundational groundwork for improved global hypersonic event-surveillance frameworks, supporting improved security preparedness and informing strategic monitoring and defense policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗